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new ways of thinking

Started by XXVV, Sep 16, 08:57 PM 2011

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XXVV

Here are some seeds of thought that will without doubt forever change the way you see roulette and the way you approach the game. It will impact on all areas of life.


From time to time I will add in some extra notes and get this snowball moving.


Mark Buchanan is a professional science writer based in the UK. His recent article in the excellent weekly Australian publication New Scientist titled Quantum Minds - the deep connection between Quantum Theory and human thought is a brilliant summary of the growing field of "Quantum Interaction" and how we are finding more and more ways to use our minds on many levels previously unknown.


Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an astonishing writer, market trader and academic who blows to shreds many earlier misunderstandings. This is the second edition of his book described by Fortune Magazine as one of the smartest books of all time time - some hype.


Fooled By Randomness -the hidden role of chance in life and in the markets.


The influence of these writers and the principles they discuss are modifying my approach to roulette, day by day.


Over the coming weeks before travel I will give some specific examples of this change of thought and no doubt over the coming months will add new detail and connections.

XXVV

One very practical way to deal with the random realities is to be prepared to change rapidly.


I have had a saying for many years titled 'flying the flag of convenience". This was derived from my early fascination with the pirate adventures and the regular looting of Spanish galleons by the irascible buccaneer Robert Shaw before his karmic metamorphosis into a James Bond villain.


The topmast flag was regularly switched to fool the hapless French, British or Spanish vessels in the Caribbean. Only at the last minute would the true intent of the pirate ship be made clear. The element of surprise added to the thrills, spills and spoils.


This neat trick I have regularly used in my professional business life in order that my personality and my behaviour toward frequently errant contractors and sundry could not be easily read, and thus able to be predictable.


This kept others on their toes despite the downside risk of being labeled 'moody'. It pays to be unpredictable. The personality is after all only a mask.


On this note the application to writing, theory and application toward roulette is particularly appropriate.


What worked yesterday may not work today, and the professional needs to be lightning fast in switching. Same for traders.


The examples given in Nassim Taleb's book are remarkable and George Soros is the man of the man of the moment having doubled his formidable fortune this year by a big move on Gold.


You thus may find reading any of my threads, certain inconsistencies when reviewed over time. Thats par for the course with me.


Good Fortune


XXVV

Chrisbis

Roulette..........................
Physical in Nature, Random in Opportunity                                                    The Reveal Originator!

woods101

Thanks man. I was given 'Black Swan' to read once by a 'mathematician' friend after discussing roulette with her once upon a time and never read it. I guess that's what you call irony. Strangely at the time I started reading it and found myself disagreeing with the general ideas being put forward. It's funny how we change. Three year's on and a read of a few articles and I find myself in agreement with his take on randomness. Now to dig that book out!

XXVV

I believe that Nassim's work is critical in these increasingly turbulent times in order to see the world and its opportunities in a fresh light.


The nonsense and flawed arguments of many world leaders in various fields need to be fundamentally challenged so that better, more 'appropriate' ways of seeing things can unfold.


His work leaves the door open in many realms so no one need feel excluded or threatened, only those who pedal nonsense.


So on a personal level we can make changes in how we see and interpret our circumstances, and in a very specific sense we can adjust our methodologies and goals in the relatively controlled environment of the casino, or trading floor. However it seems the casino may be the simpler option.
Thats got to be good news.




XXVV

Strongly recommend  reviewing Nassim Taleb on youtube regarding many issues that face us including not being fooled by randomness and dealing with black swan events.

XXVV

We are very fortunate to be witnessing the start of  a new way of thinking; a tipping point is arriving where (hopefully) a host of parasites and inflated earning inefficient operatives will be tossed out by public demand.


Refer to  :.globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com  and in particular "the great bank robbery".


Article co written by Professor of Risk Engineering at NYU Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Please refer to his articles and current three books.


I particularly like his way of blending of great classical thinking into the present. To me that is the essence also of Great Art- always referenced and inter connected.


In some ways, if you listen to the brilliant Deepak Choprah we may have come a long way in 6000 years, and in others we have certainly not.  We are approaching times of great choice and potential change. The key is always the 10% of society that push for new ways of thinking have a massive influence on the balance. Increasingly we are being provided with the tools to help. Knowledge is power.


Professor Taleb tells us when he wakes up every morning he admits he doesn't understand all that is unfolding in the complexities of world economics or world affairs. In the face of sometimes random outcomes, or apparently random outcomes, he takes actions to minimise risk damage and accentuate the positives that may emerge from extreme outcomes.  It is that self honesty in the face of uncertainty that can actually lead to positive outcomes. Better that then deluded statements from false prophets or a dubious expert who may just be temporarily lucky in the pecking order brought about by short cycle random outcomes.


I am interested in the application of these principles in the relatively simple environment of the casino where with honesty and appropriate disciplined and intelligent application we can demonstrate relatively consistent success and take the benefits to a gradually wider circle of society.


Nevertheless within the roulette game we still have to deal with randomness. Lets be honest as a first step and say we actually know very little about this principle and our brains are not ( yet) well trained to be able to deal with this very different way of seeing outcomes.


More on this soon but the first step on the journey must begin with the individual and their choice of action.

Bayes

Hi XXVV,

If you enjoyed "Fooled By Randomness", you'll probably also like the new book by Daniel Kahneman (nobel laureate in behavioural economics and guru on decision making under uncertainty). Due out in a couple of weeks.
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

XXVV

Thanks Indeed.


I have just been reading Taleb's Black Swan.


It seems necessary for me to always read these books twice. There is such a lot to absorb.

XXVV

Autobiography of Daniel Kahneman

access via Google.com and Nobel Prize

Inspirational.

XXVV

Consider Ecart as Deviation and Equilibre as Balance.


Short term cycles offer examples of statistical deviation which are unusually high in comparison to the long term spread which sees a remarkable even distribution of these forces. This is the same force but in positive and negative mode.


We are interested in this relative/ statistical (not absolute/long term) Ecart of appearances such as in EC expressions ( red/black or high/ low or even/odd) but also in other expressions within roulette which are less obvious ( such as the distributions of win/ loss bets in D+C, or the range of expression within the distributions of Finales bets).


By shifting our attention to these areas we can find short cycles of waves which we can 'surf' to our advantage. At other times we can just sit on the beach and just wait for the signs of opportunities to arrive, for they surely will.  This is a powerful human expression.  Beachboys music takes on new meaning.


In human experience there can be deviations which shift to 7 places or more. An example of this is the extraordinary memory capacities of individuals who are not savants or autistic, ie they do not have other aspects of their behaviour distorted in any way, but they can have astonishing gifts in recall of detail.


Two parts of their brain have been expanded  ( frontal lobe and inner deep memory centres) and the equivalent 'deviation'  in scale in comparison to 'norm' brain capacities would produce individuals 11 feet tall or more.


This is one way life expands - not by gentle gradual shifts but by quantum leaps.


We are always amid such change and growth.  Life may not always be as it appears at the surface. Change can be accelerated and our abilities to understand these principles are also growing.


One way to assist memory training is by clear attention and ordered reception of detail to link data by threads ( hence our love of narratives).


We are interested in the application of these ideas to professional play in roulette.


Waves are just one expression in nature that fascinate us for their beauty and mystery, yet their formidable power also which hints at so many levels in our creativity and our potential harnessing of this power.

F_LAT_INO



In human experience there can be deviations which shift to 7 places or more. An example of this is the extraordinary memory capacities of individuals who are not savants or autistic, ie they do not have other aspects of their behaviour distorted in any way, but they can have astonishing gifts in recall of detail.
We are interested in the application of these ideas to professional play in roulette.










----Right on the nail...Reminds me of sameone I know well. :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
You can always get me on  
ivica.boban@ri.t-com.hr

mr.ore

Well, this is something I'm also interested in - new ideas, especially trends. While I know it is proven that roulette cannot be beated, If I look at graphs even for ten thousands of spins, I can see a lot of trends, particulary on no zero roulette even chances, but I know that if there is positive trend in even chance, then while on normal roulette it loses, mild progression cannot lose, and there have to be more trends for positive progressions to work too. Random produces data which "seems" non-random for thousands of spins. So what we are up to is to control random itself. It seems like a crazy idea, so a system that catches long term trends IF there are some is what we should aim for and it should be enough for us.

I have just found an interesting PDF file with experimenetal system for financial markets and it seems promising. I will post it there just in case that it disappeared and also as a recommended reading for roulette programmers - this HAS to be coded, but it will not be that simple.

I suppose that the system would work ONLY if random produced some trend, so I want to make an adaptive metod and this would be only a part of it - something that adapts as random changes, but is ENOUGH complicated that it would be DIFFICULT for random to beat it.

GARNabby

Quote from: mr.ore on Oct 18, 01:52 PM 2011While I know it is proven that roulette cannot be beated...
No one that i know of has proved that outright, as who would bother.  We call all see the plain-as-day emperical evidence in the game's overwhelming availability.  And some of us still prefer to (re-)act out that needless "object lesson" in person, here and at the casinos.  The only thing involved here is "the device", and that's the casinos'.

Neither has anyone began to 'explain' quantum science.  Unlike the other sciences, e.g. Relativity, until that happens we will be left with the new-age science stuff.  As with blackjack before Thorp, the crazy system sellers, to an extent Scarne for one, are destined to pop up. 

XXVV

Thanks for the comments.


please refer   :.positscience.com/blog/2010/12/21/superior-autobiographical-memory-and-memory-bumps/


Marilu Henner ( US actress in TAXI)


60 Minutes interview with Lesley Stahl and Marilu Henner 17 December 2010


Whenever we exhibit OCD signs ( and I know I have some of this because of my Architect training - obsessive with detail) this is an aspect of this same principle.


To order our thoughts and control our emotions is the sign of any true professional.


More Soon.
XXVV

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