A Baccarat System

[Bayes]

I was just digging around some systems on my hard drive and came across this little gem. It was sold a few years ago online for $5,000 (yes, you read that right).

As it seems to be holy grail season at the forum, I thought I'd upload it, just in case you have room in your garage for one more Lamborghini. 

Not having tested it, I can't say whether it IS a holy grail, but at that price it darn well ought to be. And no, I didn't pay $5,000 for it.

[Turner]

Bayes. Im trying to master craps right now. If i even repeat the word bacarrat, my head will implode. I scan read it. Its heavy going.

[Bayes]

turner,

Agreed, not exactly bedtime reading, I think that's why I never tested it. I suppose that's one disadvantage of getting freebies; if I'd paid the 5 grand I surely would have given it more attention.

[soggett]

Thanks Bayes

This would be awesome playing on roulette - three EC at once (with a tracker or a bot)
have to find my baccarat actuals i have somewhere on my pc and try it

[Bayes]

soggett,

It's strictly for live baccarat, apparently it takes advantage of some anomaly in the patterns which appear. But by all means give it a whirl on roulette.

[soggett]

soggett,

It's strictly for live baccarat, apparently it takes advantage of some anomaly in the patterns which appear. But by all means give it a whirl on roulette.

but shouldn't it be the same? cover the zero is like banker comission and the rest is like 50/50
But ok, will see if there's a difference, thanks for the heads up

[ego]

-

I read there exist a real small way to use advantage play with baccarat.
I guess it is some kind of card counting and at the end of the shoe you attack having the edge over the house.

That would be something to have ...

[Bayes]

but shouldn't it be the same? cover the zero is like banker comission and the rest is like 50/50
But ok, will see if there's a difference, thanks for the heads up

Almost 50:50, but banker has a slight edge over player, so you tend to get a few more streaks on the banker side.

[Drazen]

-

I read there exist a real small way to use advantage play with baccarat.
I guess it is some kind of card counting and at the end of the shoe you attack having the edge over the house.

That would be something to have ...

Well if i am not wrong, and as i was playing in DB on fun mode, it seemed to me that for baccart they are actualy using several decks of cards at the same time, drawing them from that machine for cards.


But croupier always stops play and mix cards when he draw about half of pile compiled from several decks together from machine. And goes from begginig. So you don't know how many cards are there in that machine?


Soi am not sure how could you create and edge by counting cards this way...


Cheers


Drazen

[Skakus]

Absolutely.

4 deck, 6 deck, shuffle half way through or every 20 minutes.

Almost impossible to count your way to profit.

[GLC]

Bayes, 


I have played around testing this system on roulette with mixed results.  It's so complicated and takes so long to test that I gave up after a few hours and hadn't really made any head-way.  Was about even on the chip count.  I think you would have to have some kind of computer program to keep track of all the options, patterns, bet progressions, etc...


Also, I see no reason why it should work.  If this will work, then seems like any system that tries to predict the next few spins based on past history should work also.


The interesting part of the system to me is the bet method.  Using different types of betting depending on the pattern coming at you might be worth looking into further.  He uses flat betting, positive progression and negative progression.  Also starts at 1 unit on some bets and 2 units on other bets.


All I'm saying is that depending on what the wheel's giving us, we might find adjusting our bet type to certain patterns may, I stress "may", give us a better balance at the end of a session.


GLC

[ego]

Also, I see no reason why it should work.  If this will work, then seems like any system that tries to predict the next few spins based on past history should work also.

GLC my point also - that is why i think my own solutions are more clever ...

Lets say we clustering patterns of three RBB wish can come in 8 combinations.

Now if we play the same as the previous 3 then we have 1 in 8 to fail - pretty simple math and odds.
Now if we play the opposite as the previous 3 then we have 1 in 8 to fail - pretty simple math and odds.

Due to the small size equilibrium will create some heavy fluctuation and string of losses.
Then we can delay equilibrium and fluctuation.

Once in 1 million do we get 1 pattern out of 8 repeating 8 times in a row.

Now if we see the previous three as i mention above and the first colour of our previous three is the same as our first future outcome we play opposite.
Now if we see the previous three as i mention above and the first colour of our previous three is the opposite as our first future outcome we play same.

Then we have 2 in 8 wish appears to repeat once in 500.000 and we only have to place two single bets.
I don't be live any other patterns become much better then that - no matter if you play with or against or trending.

That would at least delay long strings wish would make staking in different levels make you take andvantage out of periodic distribution.

[Bayes]

George,

I appreciate your testing efforts, albeit limited. It's true there's no reason to believe that any particular pattern showing would lead to an increased likelihood of any other particular pattern following it; baccarat is a game of independent trials just as roulette is. However, that logic also applies to many if not most of the systems on this forum, and so far this has been no barrier to giving them a try. 

If this system were still being sold, I would definitely put some effort into coding it, which wouldn't be too hard because the triggers are just fixed prior patterns. There are a lot of them though, which makes it tough to play without some kind of software tracker, as you point out.

In your testing, did you get a sense of how many bets you would actually place in a shoe? They say the system has been tested on over 12,000 shoes, but if you're only betting a few times in a shoe that might not be as impressively large a test as it sounds.

I notice that some tables are included which show how much the system has won playing various baccarat testers, including the zumma 600 and 1000. If anyone has either of those perhaps they could upload it? I might actually run the system through it just to see if the figures hold up.

[Turner]

My view is this. The shoe is irrelevant now the CSM is in use.

CSM has turned BJ into a spectator sport. I can't speak for Baccarat, but if the advantage of this system used card counting advantage play to reduce the house edge, it doesn't work agains a CSM.

My observations in the casino are players min betting the game and pressing the poker type bets....perfect pairs etc.

Turner

[GLC]

Bayes,  I've never tested it on baccarat.  Only roulette and the betting opportunities are pretty limited.  In a shoe, I'd be surprised if you got more than 15 betting opportunities.  But the problem I had with testing is trying to keep track of which pattern is forming long enough to reach the bet point.  Sure a lot of the patterns are very similar, but all it takes is a twitch in the pattern and you've lost the bet opportunity.  I really struggled with why the sequence leading up to a pattern was all that important.  As you see, some of the triggers with patterns are 10 or more spins/hands.

If I remember right the patterns were pulled out of observing huge volumes of decisions and this always makes me a little uneasy with the results because it is a little like reverse engineering based on observing past patterns, but those patterns have come and gone and they don't really prove that they will repeat enough to capitalize on.

GLC

Sorry, really limited exposure to this.