An effort to help some members get out of the worst gambing fallacy

[Kattila]

Agree this is a very good way to play roulette ( STD + pos. progressions ).
I use pos. prog. from a few years now , thanks to Hermes .
Bet selection not really matter , can use FTL, the second last , the hottest, the middle one...
I bet on 12 numbers groups (like doz or col) and on 9 numbers groups(3 streets...inside...etc)

cheers

[Still]

I'm in the past post the graphics on this forum that shows positive chronos  with some modifications beat home advantage in the long run, i think its 700 000 spins but it have big holes in bank. i reduced that big holes with new modifications but  it still need a solid bank to play for 100% win...

I would like to have the data in a spreadsheet so i can see what i can do with it to make it playable with smaller bankroll, some waiting, but hopefully not much.  Anything with an actual positive expectancy can be managed. 

[albertojonas]

Cool to see things going this way...The element to perfect it, is when to attack.
and the most steady one with flat betting is to interact when there is a clear indication for correction.
[reveal]
24 18 34 0 4 26 1 28 8 26 26 17 35 32 31 25 4 11 2 3 18 33 0 23 21 28 15 12 34 33 11 19 21 16 27 8 15 6 5 13 36 2 14 30 36 4 26 33 25 30 29 20 26 6 10 21 3 10 9 35 28 27 29 31 11 28 11 33 17 25 1 14 18 9 1 1 25 14 32 16 29 15 24 24 10 17 1 32 6 13 31 20 33 8 29 28 9 12 5 19 10 7 20 30 23 32 11 15 31 23 4 34 1 9 25 16 34 27 4 11 30 16 21 23 20 36 17 36 17 13 16 20 34 22 31 14 12 14 3 7 33 34 1 14 16 7 3 3 35 27 0 7 20 17 3 10 15 16 8 1 35 9 36 0 11 12 25 0 11 2 36 15 2 35 1 12 21 33 22 2 35 35 4 10 22 2 20 6 14 20 3 16 9 36 2 19 16 30 0 27 32 5 27 5 28 21 23 11 0 23 2 1 19 3 14 20 16 36 4 27 36 10 27 18 29 36 24 16 27 15 26 7 9 28 25 15 6 23 24 6 21 11 29 23 26 21 27 22 10 3 0 5 31 28 18 1 36 33 29 9 29 34 15 21 2 4 8 26 24 16 33 14 36 31 7 4 8 33 0 28 35 18 21 23 16 15 24 9 34 16 17 15 30 1 24 29 1 27 28 28 [/size]Timestamp: 2012-09-12 22:06:06 UTC[/reveal]




******************************
SEQUENCE DBL FOR RED & BLACK
******************************
1: -
2: -
3: L
4: L
5: L
6: L
7: W
8: L
9: W
10: W
11: W
12: W
13: L
14: W
15: W
16: W
17: L
18: W
19: L
20: L
21: L
22: W
23: L
24: L
25: L
26: L
27: L
28: L
29: L
30: L
31: L
32: W
33: W
34: L
35: L
36: W
37: L
38: W
39: W
40: W
41: W
42: L
43: W
44: L
45: L
46: W
47: L
48: L
49: L
50: L
51: W
52: W
53: W
54: L
55: L
56: L
57: W
58: W
59: L
60: L
61: W
62: L
63: W
64: W
65: W
66: W
67: W
68: L
69: L
70: W
71: W
72: W
73: W
74: W
75: W
76: W
77: W
78: W
79: L
80: L
81: W
82: W
83: W
84: W
85: L
86: L
87: L
88: L
89: W
90: W
91: W
92: W
93: W
94: W
95: L
96: L
97: W
98: W
99: L       **DBL R&B :Singles=2 | Series =14 | Ecart =3.0
100: W
101: W
102: W
103: L
104: W (won bet after clear indication)
105: L
106: L
107: W
108: L  (won bet after clear indication)
109: W
110: W

[Robeenhuut]

well not strictly true, same observation was made a little while ago on Standard Deviation Math Formula thread -
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=9853.msg86214#msg86214


I've been trying since then to find the best progression to take advantage of this situation.


The problem I find is if correction is not a large or even medium correction;- once you have your STD3, say 14 singles & 2 series, & your next 10 events are more balanced as might be expected, leaving you with say 19 singles & 7 series (STD2.35), your STD has decreased as might be expected/hoped for, but the absolute deviation is still 12 (difference in amounts between the 2 events you are tracking).


The last 2 sessions I have played, I've used Skakus' EC Money Management which combines a positive & a negative progression, as this gives profit when you are obtaining close to 50/50 results (as in a situation where the STD is decreasing but the absolute deviation is staying roughly the same), but also includes a positive progression to take advantage if the difference in the absolute deivation decreases as well as the STD.



do you mean to use a reverse labouchere? I hadn't tried this.. I will, thanks.

Of course you are right. Its just still a gamble on SD going back to sub 3 territory but unfortunately even though SD drops down significantly as you pointed out the next set of spins can still produce a continuation of a current trend. You may call it an educated guess  but its really GF.
Playing Reversed Labby is just hoping for a deviation to work in our favor in general and playing it after SD hits a certain number indicating imbalance only gives a better profit if our timing is right.
Unfortunately no magic formula here.

[woods101]

@Bayes
An interesting book, and one that begs the question...Why is everyone so certain about everything?
A question that is applicable here? Of course not. You can be sure of that! 

Woods

[Ralph]

It is uncertain as the quant physics, you can never know the balls position and speed in the same experiment  . We know the ball will land on an number if not a quant jump pass it to the floor.

We may never know, but may guess a small fraction better with information. Can our guess be better or about 3% from the odds, we will win more than lose.