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Narrowing down my search

Started by ignatus, Jan 17, 08:27 PM 2013

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ignatus

I'm thinking of a new project.

This time I'm going use the streets. And to find the most common movement by statistics.

I need a statistical software, and enter massive list of live spins. (don't know how this will be done, but I figure it out)

If no one is interested in this or willing to help out, I do it myself. (and If this is so, I will not share the results, because of the total unthankfulness and bad attitudes I've seen so far.)
If you like to donate link::[url="//paypal.me/ignatus1"]//paypal.me/ignatus1[/url]

"Focus on predicting wheel sectors where the ball is expected to land" ~Steve

Skakus

Quote from: ignatus on Jan 17, 08:27 PM 2013
...I will not share the results...

Oh please. Is that a threat or a promise?  :xd: :xd: :xd:
A ship moored in the harbour is safe, but that's not what ships are made for.

rolf-harris

I am sure you will get help from someone..
I think this is a good direction you are headed..ie trying to make sense of movements from the actual wheel and not from the casino layout.
And, it seems, there are many others interested in your ideas judging by the number of responses to your posts.
The only problem I had was placing the bets. Not much time to do this .So I have resorted to using the neighbours bets to make it easier and trying to determine the average movements around the wheel from the last spin.
Keep up the good work..

Orochi

Stay tuned in a few days i will release my current project. A full data roulette tracker & analizer and bet helper.
Nikola Tesla was once quoted as saying: “If you only knew the magnificence of the 3, 6 and 9, then you would have a key to the universe.”

TwoCatSam

If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

ignatus

I downloaded STATA from piratebay. Seems pretty advanced.

Must figure out some kind of formula for this to work

Data entered for each streets (3-4 numbers)

Y will be the movement (0-6), X all 2 street combinations

how to calculate the distance...

X must contain all possible combinations of 2 streets 12*12=144 (?) 

Reverse calculation is used, so distance cannot be greater that 6

Street 1=(0,19,15,32)
Street 2=(2,4,21)

etc

Another value must used (Street 1=base value)

1=0
2=1
3=2
4=3
5=4
6=5

12=1
11=2
10=3
9 =4
8=5
7=6

So, if movement in this case from 1-10=3

Base Value must be entered for every street (1-12)

So, there are 144 possible movements =144 Base Values



So, first part is to assign a street value to each number.  Example Street 1=(0,19,15,32)

Second part is to calculate the distance between two streets. I this is done by Base Values

Summarize this:

X= Base Values 0-6

Y= Base Value Frequency


Did I get this right??


   
If you like to donate link::[url="//paypal.me/ignatus1"]//paypal.me/ignatus1[/url]

"Focus on predicting wheel sectors where the ball is expected to land" ~Steve

Mattias

Hi,

Statistics has a dilemma you can only prove something with a certain confidence. That means if you believe you have an edge of say 9 % in average, you also need to determine a confidence interval (based on the standard deviation) and you also need to assume your outcome is normal distributed around an average value i.e. 9 % in this example. One way to determine the standard deviation is to run your system multiple of times (as I know you have already done that and that data can be used). Excel works great and it's simple!

For example if you run the system for 8 sessions and you got the following results [8,9,12,13,3,2,1,22] profit-% if you have a Swedish version of excel you calculate the average using "medel" and calculate the standard deviation using "STDAV" in this case you will have:

average = 9
Standard deviation = 6.7

In this example we could say that we have "prove" that our result is 9 +/- 6.7

The 1 standard deviation tell us that in 68 % of all trials will be in that interval (2.3% - 15.7) %-profit

I stop here...do not know if you already know all this stuff or if it's seems to complicated?

PS. with edge I mean the edge against the math-probability (according to classical definition). If you bet on 10 numbers in average the probability will be 27 % and if your hit-rate is 36 % your edge will be 9 %-unit
I know that Roulette has a negative expected value - I play for fun!

TwoCatSam


PS. with edge I mean the edge against the math-probability (according to classical definition). If you bet on 10 numbers in average the probability will be 27 % and if your hit-rate is 36 % your edge will be 9 %-unit


Does "bet" mean you did bet or are going to bet?


Shouldn't "will be" be "was"?

Sam
 
If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

Mattias

Hi,

It was an example just to clarify what i meant by edge, if ignitus cover 10 numbers on each bet he would expect to win in 27 % of the time in average. If he have a "system" with a hit-rate of 36 % then he could have an edge.
I know that Roulette has a negative expected value - I play for fun!

Blood Angel

Quote from: ignatus on Jan 18, 05:56 AM 2013
I downloaded STATA from piratebay. Seems pretty advanced.


Care to share if its something that can be used for roulette study?
Piratebay has been shut down for long time.....

Mattias

I know that Roulette has a negative expected value - I play for fun!

Blood Angel

Quote from: Mattias on Jan 18, 10:45 AM 2013
link:://thepiratebay.se/

yes it is blocked and has been for sometime...well certainly from the UK.

Mattias

I know that Roulette has a negative expected value - I play for fun!

Blood Angel


Mattias

Hi,

Strange how it could work in Sweden if it's not allowed in UK?
I know that Roulette has a negative expected value - I play for fun!

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