Holloway's "law"

[Bayes]

Hi Guys,

I posted this on the other forum, but at Victor's request I've repeated it here -

In his celebrated book "Full Time Gambler", Louis G.  Holloway says this in his chapter on "Cycles and Patterns":

Here is your key to pattern: There are five basic types of runs.  Short and long runs on either side, and erratic.  The solution is really very simple.  When the plays are running in bunches, play them to continue bunching.  When they are erratic, either stop or play them to continue erratic.   . . . .  What we are trying to do is capitalize on the fact that winners and losers come in bunches.  The longer the odds, the more this bunching is obvious.

Mathematicians will say a roulette number always has one chance in 38 (American wheel) or a dice longshot like 12 is always a 35-1 shot.  Here is where L. G. H.  and the mathematicians part company.  I say the longshots get a whisker better when they are "warmed up" or bunching.  I can't say why.  Call it the "law of attractions", or whatever you like, but my research shows that this attraction works.  . . .  If these hints on cycles haven't kindled your interest in further investigation, then you can stay in the group with the lazy ones and disbelievers.

The book is short on specifics, but he does say this in the section on roulette systems:

Starting with the longest longshots, (straight up numbers at 35-1) you will find it much better to let the past results tell you which ones are hot rather than follow your favourite number or go to one that hasn't come in for a long time.  When one hits twice within ten times, it is eligible for a very short time.  If it hits three times within twenty, it can be followed for a longer time.  No matter what point you set, there are bound to be frustrations.  For example, if you follow a number ten times, it can hit on the eleventh.  Nevertheless you must set a rule, and research gives the best answers.  I suggest: If it hits twice within ten, follow once or twice.  If it hits three times within twenty, follow up to ten times.  If it hits within that ten, continue to follow ten times until the number cools off.

On split roulette numbers (17-1) the cycle is about half the longer ones.  They should hit three times within ten in order to follow five.  Strips of three numbers in a row should hit three within eight to follow four times.  Six blocks should hit three within five to be considered hot, then follow twice.  Dozens or columns must hit three in a row to attract my action.  Follow twice and then drop off.  Even-money shots on isolated straight runs are fair at five, better at six.  Follow one time only.  All bets that win are continued on any warmed-up cycle.

Was he right? I haven't tested any of these systems, but someone might like to.

More to come on L. G. H's approach to money-management and staking.  

[Gizmotron]

I've already ordered and have shipping "Full Time Gambler", Louis G. Holloway. I also purchased "Gamble To Win Roulette", R.D. Ellison at the same time.

These two authors talk about trend play.

Thanks.

[VLS]

Thanks for posting this here Bayes.

[albalaha]

Dear Bayes,
                The technique looks good. Can you elaborate a little what exactly is to be done?

[Bayes]

Not sure what you're looking for, isn't this clear?

I suggest: If it hits twice within ten, follow once or twice.  If it hits three times within twenty, follow up to ten times.  If it hits within that ten, continue to follow ten times until the number cools off.

On split roulette numbers (17-1) the cycle is about half the longer ones.  They should hit three times within ten in order to follow five.  Strips of three numbers in a row should hit three within eight to follow four times.  Six blocks should hit three within five to be considered hot, then follow twice.  Dozens or columns must hit three in a row to attract my action.  Follow twice and then drop off.  Even-money shots on isolated straight runs are fair at five, better at six.  Follow one time only.  All bets that win are continued on any warmed-up cycle.

There is no elaboration. He gives suggestions as to how you might do some research, but the above are the only (roulette) systems in the book.