STANDARD DEVIATION BEATING EUROPEAN ROULETTE WHEELS???

[cubanopro]

Hi guys! First of all I just wanted to thank all of the members here that constantly try to bring something interesting to this forum.   I have to admit that this is by far a very fascinating forum and I find it very impressive to see how many people are trying together to finally beat the house.   Who knows? Maybe someday magic will happen.   

In the meantime I have something appealing to post here.   I have been trying out a strategy in a land based casino near my city and to be honest I have been more than surprised with the results.   Now I said to myself that it's time to share with others my experience.   Now I want to specify that I'm not here to represent any casino nor I am here to sell any kind of advertising casino stuff.  .  .   All I want is to discuss and verify with you people (perhaps someone could write it to test it for millions of spins) if my strategy might bring a possible small return in the long term.   Obviously no system can win EVERYTIME.   To be profitable we only need to win in the long run.   

Well here I go! By the way the following explanations are done so that even a six years old could understand.   Near two months ago I posted a bit of my thoughts concerning standard deviation but it never went somewhere.   Now I have been trying this for a while (not too long unfortunately) and I have to say it has been a very positive experience.   Before starting to actually explain what my system is all about I believe it's imperative that I talk a bit about what standard deviation truly is for those having question marks in their minds right about this second.   

Standard deviation is simply a factor or a value if you prefer that determines the deviation from a standard event.   In other words, it helps establishing how much variation there is from an average or a mean.   It is mostly used in the world of statistics but could easily be useful in lots of fields and I believe it could bring an advantage in the game of roulette.   Why should we care about standard deviation??? Well we should give a special attention to it because it is the tool that will guide us into think is this truly a bad streak that I'm having or is this normal? How many of you have though that a table was rigged simply because two zeros came out in a row when you were obviously expecting a BLACK or a RED number to fall? I don't know about you but I have.   To be honest I'm only 22 years old and when I first started playing in a casino (4 years ago) I didn't know what I was doing.   With standard deviation we know how many times a zero, a dozen, a black number, a red number and all the others sections should fall.   In other words, we learn to expect.   You might say that in the game of roulette the past does not influence the future and you're right because it doesn't but I would have to say that in the long run that is no longer true.   Numbers do follow a certain pattern and I understand that it's not because 13 reds in a row came in that it automatically means a black will follow, but one thing is sure (unless the table is rigged) eventually a black will come because it's the law of averages.     

Well enough said! The best way to explain something is by demonstrating it with an example. 

This is what I meant by expecting what should fall:
Standard deviation in its simplest form has a formula that is: the number of events multiplied by the chance that the event has of happening and multiplied again by the chance that the event has of NOT happening.   Everything squared root gives us the first level of standard deviation.   

Example #1:
Lets say that we would like to calculate how many times every dozen is expected to fall in 12 spins.   Well this is very simple. 

Number of events: 12 spins
Chance of happening: 12/37
Chance of not happening: 25/37

First standard deviation = 1. 6216

There we go it is as simple as that! The number above represents the first degree or level in the standard deviation.  There could be as many levels as you would like but mainly the most common ones are the first 3.  Each one represents a percentage and that is when it becomes useful.  The first level is 68%, the second is 95% and the third is 99. 7%.

Notice that when I first started explaining what the standard deviation was I mentioned the words ''variation from an average''.  In this case the average would be how many times each and every dozen is expected to fall.

Mean:  12*(12/37) = 3. 8918

Now we must take into consideration that if there was no zero it would simply be 12/3= 4 but since we have 37 numbers and NOT 36 (something people tend to forget) the result is a slight lower than 4.  Furthermore, if we want to know how many times should each dozen fall in 12 spins we simply add and subtract the deviation to the mean which in this case is 1. 6216.

3. 8918 - 1. 6216 = 2. 2702 ≈ 2
3. 8918 + 1. 6216 = 5. 5134 ≈ 6

This means that 68% of the time every dozen will fall between 2 and 6 times every 12 spins.  If we were to calculate the second one (95%) we would only need to multiply 1. 6216 by 2 and finally if we were to calculate the third one (99,7%) we would only need to multiply 1. 6216 by 3. 
     
Ok now that we have formally established what a standard deviation is lets get into the details of how I use it to make money.  First of all I would like to mention that I'm not a person who likes to gamble, what I am is a person who likes making money.  There is a HUGE difference.  This means that whether I win or lose I treat this as a business and not as a ''lucky day'' at the casino.  I always know in advance how much I am willing to lose and I also have a limit in my mind of much I will win before I leave.  I believe that the majority of humans (myself included of course) have what I call a thirst for money and for the feeling of being wealthy and when winning that thirst increases and consequently affects our judgement making us vulnerable.  The moment we stop being rational is the moment the real bad streak starts and that is why I never stop going by the book.  If you have a system follow it to the very core and stick to it. 


The system :

First of all I would like to mention that I lose very often, but I still win in the long term which is the only thing that truly matters.  In fact I lose so often that it comes near to 32% of the time.  To create my system I first calculated the first standard deviation for dozens and rows and found out that every 5 spins 68 % of the time each dozen or row will fall between 1 and 3 times.  I then said to myself that I could start betting on a dozen that has been missing for two spins and then I could start betting and that's exactly what I did. 

68% of the time between 1 and 3 also means that 32% of the time each dozen or row will fall between 0 times or more than 3 times every 5 spins.  So for example if I want to bet on a single dozen I wait to have at least two dozens and then I bet but never exceeding 5 spins.  Lets pretend the following sequence: ***(The following numbers refer to the dozen and the actual number)

1, 1, 2, 0, 3
In this scenario I would have win because it falls under the 68% category.  Dozen #1, #2 and #3 all came up between 1 and 3 times in 5 spins.  I would have started betting on dozen #3 after the third spin because dozen #1 and #2 had fall previously.  Next sequence:

2, 2, 2, 3, 2
In this scenario I would have lost because it falls under the 32% category.  Dozen #1 didn't show up once in 5 spins and not to mention that dozen #2 fell more than 3 times.  I would have started betting on dozen #1 after the fourth spin because #2 and #3 had fall previously.  Next sequence:

1,1,1,1,1
In this scenario I would not bet but it would still be in the 32% category since dozen #1 fell more than 3 times and dozen #2 and #3 never came out.  Since no other dozen was there I did not bet. 

As you can see, sometimes it's neutral, sometimes I lose (less than 32%) but most of the time (68%) I win.  Now the second most important part of this system is the betting.  Even tough I win over twice as much as I lose it's important to make sure the losses in the amount of money are not twice higher than the gains or else there is no profit left.  You can bet as you want but I bet the following: (the casino I play have a minimum of 25$ per exterior bet)

The maximum that I bet is three times since I only bet after two dozens have shown their faces and I also stop betting once a fifth number is out.  Therefore the sequence that expose me the most are those containing three bets.   

First bet 25$
Second bet 25$
Third bet 100$             

Like I said this system has been very profitable for me.  When I win my first bet I have a profit of 50$.  When I win my second bet I have a profit of 25$.  Finally when I win my third bet I have a profit of 150$.  On average you could say that when I win it's around 75$

When I lose the third bet it costs me 150$ which is exactly 2 times what I win.  I am profitable only in the long term because even though I only make on average 75$ and lose 150$ I win 68% of the time and lose less than 32% of the time.  Now lets pretend that I would lose 32% this would mean that I would win:

68/32 = 2. 125 times more often than I would lose.  Therefore I win by 0. 125 which is more than enough.  But it gets better!

When I only bet 2 times because a second dozen only showed up on the third spin I bet:

First bet 25$
Second bet 50$

Which means that on average I would win around 63$ profit and would lose only 75$ which is only 1. 2 times bigger.  Now the difference is no longer 0. 125 but 0. 925 which is very attractive.  And now even BETTER!

When I only bet 1 time because a second dozen only showed up on the fourth spin I bet:

First bet 25$

Which means that I would win 50$ profit and would lose only 25$ which is not even bigger than my win but in fact smaller.  Risk ratio for this situation is 1:2 which means that for every dollar I risk I have a chance of winning two.  That's a 200% return on investment. 

Ok so now comment as much as you want.  I think I have covered everything and if not. . . well I will have to write it in a separate post because I'm tired of writing and you must be tired of reading.  I wish the best of luck to everyone and also NEVER EVER FORGET to be rational when betting or else you could lose it all in a glance, and never bet money you can't lose!

Cubano
PS: Please God let the criticism to come be a constructive one. . .

[Phishalot]

Thanks for posting. Been working on a system for Double streets think this will help. Like the way you play.

Good Luck
Phishalot

[VLS]

PS: Please God let the criticism to come be a constructive one. . .

Rest assured we usually do enjoy a calm environment thanks to the fellows.

Any case, you can remove them. Here every person is the moderator of their own thread.



Thanks for sharing your interesting take on Standard Deviation with us, cubano.

May your stay in our forum be an enjoyable, productive one.

My only question is: have you tried this approach in the American 00 wheel? If so, have you found the extra number brings in too much of a discrepancy?

Cheers!

[warrior]

I HAVE a question if you lose the first 3 do you continue on that same dozen and start the progression over thanx warrior.

[cubanopro]

Thanks for posting.  Been working on a system for Double streets think this will help.  Like the way you play. 

Good Luck
Phishalot

Thanks man! I wish you good luck as well in all your endeavors. 

Cubano

[cubanopro]

My only question is: have you tried this approach in the American 00 wheel? If so, have you found the extra number brings in too much of a discrepancy?

Cheers!

Hi! No I'm sorry I'm afraid I haven't. . . I find it to be a complete waste of time playing on a double 0 wheel since it means the house edge is even more unbeatable.  It's already hard enough to beat the house on a single 0 wheel. . . I don't even want to imagine on american wheels.

Cubano


PS: thanks for my picture

[cubanopro]

I HAVE a question if you lose the first 3 do you continue on that same dozen and start the progression over thanks warrior.

Nope! You forget about it and simply start over looking for new dozens to bet on.  If you have other questions I have already aswered quite some question on another forum.

The forum is VLS and you can find my post under the same name as this one. 

Have a good day!
Cubano

[F_LAT_INO]

--And why are you directing us to another forum?
I think you should listen to us here also/since you posted here/
and see what we have to say about your method.
---Very interesting and original method---
I like it and think that this could be even improved to better,
regarding staking plan.

[cubanopro]

--And why are you directing us to another forum?
I think you should listen to us here also/since you posted here/
and see what we have to say about your method.
---Very interesting and original method---
I like it and think that this could be even improved to better,
regarding staking plan.

Hi F_LAT_INO! My apologies for making you believe that I wanted people to stop asking questions on this forum. . . Maybe I didn't express myself well.  What I meant is that you might find on the other forum some quite interesting questions that I have already answered.  Questions that you didn't necessarily had in mind but that are still very useful ones.  Thanks for your comment saying that my method was interesting and original (I agree with you).  Nowadays when you hear people talking about systems it always has to do with explanations of HOW the system works but never explanations of WHY the system works. . .  I mean I'm not saying that my system works because unfortunately I haven't tried it for 1000 000 spins but still at least I tried to give an explanation to back up the system's success. 

WE REALLY NEED SOMEONE TO CODE THIS SYSTEM!!! HELP PLEASE!

[F_LAT_INO]

I think you will soon hear good news,as soon as
people/coders/realise potentials of this method.
----To be quite frank,this should be a regular.
----Take my word,as have tested it with 3000
past/my own/spins and the results are positive.

[cubanopro]

I think you will soon hear good news,as soon as
people/coders/realise potentials of this method.
----To be quite frank,this should be a regular.
----Take my word,as have tested it with 3000
past/my own/spins and the results are positive.

Wow are you serious!?! That is pretty amazing. . . but we really need someone to code so we test it for many many spins. . .  Wow thanks again for your contribution man!

[Lulloz]

I like this one, many thx for sharing it.

I think flatino is right, with another kind of progression can be better

[GLC]

Cubanopro,

Glad you decided to post on this forum as well.  I too have been scratching my head about your progression.

I was thinking 1-2-3 might be another sequence to consider.
Win on 1st = +2  VS Win on 1st = +2
Win on 2nd = +3  VS Win on 2nd = +1
Win on 3rd = +3  VS Win on 3rd = +4

If we lose all 3 bets, down -6 on both sequences.
Main difference is if we lose on the 2nd bet.

Cheers,

George

[GLC]

Since I, for one, hate tracking for betting opportunities, I prefer to begin tracking the two dozens immediately after a win or 3 losses.  I just don't see that it makes any difference when you start the 5 spin sequence.  How can it affect our odds?  We could start on spin 4 of the last 5 spin sequence to minimize tracking. 

Example:

Spin          Bet             W/L           Total
1
1
2  Dozens 1&2 trigger to start betting on 3 for 3 attacks
1               1                  L               -1 
3               1                  W             +1  Dozens 1&3 trigger to start betting on doz 2
3               1                  L                0
1               1                  L               -1
2               2                  W             +3  The 1&2 don't know they just finished a grouping of 5 spins, so let's use them to start a new attack.

Am I wrong, confused or what?

The only thing I think waiting for the 5 spins sequence to finish is that you bet fewer bets in an hours time, but, if this is a winning bet, I want to bet more bets in an hours time. 

I'm also struggling with your statement that it's not reasonable to wait until a losing dozen hits before starting a new attack.  I know your logic is solid.  I know that you will pass up a win everytime you do it.  And you may pass up more wins than losses saved.  Okay, that doesn't sound so good.  The more I write, the more I agree with you.  OK, you convinced me.  Don't wait for a losing dozen to hit before starting a new attack because it could be your very next win.

I'm not challenging how you play your system, I'm just waiting to see if you have a rock solid reason for doing it one way over another.

Thanks for your patience,

G 

[esoito]

Hello

Thank you for this interesting post.

You wrote:
"Each one represents a percentage and that is when it becomes useful.  The first level is 68%, the second is 95% and the third is 99. 7%. "

Afraid you  lost me on this statement. The levels suddenly appeared out of nowhere. (For a moment I thought I'd taken the wrond tablets)

Please clarify.