All progressions are equally good and bad

[GLC]

Just thought I'd bloviate at little about progressions.

All progressions have series of spins that they do well with.  Most progressions do well with most series of spins.

All progressions have series of spins that defeat them.  Most progressions are defeated by only a few series of spins.

The above two statements are why most systems start out doing well, but eventually hit the series that defeats them.  It's at that time that we all jump ship and move on to something else.  Some can go a long time without hitting the killer series and we get really excited.

Steep progressions like a martingale do well as long as you stay under the number of losses in a row you're willing to play to.  If you have enough bankroll to play a 10 step marty, you'll think you've found the pot-o-gold at the end of the rainbow.  Reality only hits home when you have lost 8 times in a row, then 9 times in a row and you're looking at your chips and realize that you have to bet 512 units on the next spin and the odds of winning are really just under 50/50.  Granted when you started the losses you're odds of losing  10 in a row were miniscule, but now you're down to the odds of winning the next bet and the house has the advantage.

Slow progressions like the bread winner do well as long as eventually you reach a stretch of spins with a high enough concentration of wins to compensate for all the losses you've had previously. 

The bread winner does poorly if there are just enough losses to stay ahead of the small wins that are chipping away at the draw down.

Stretches of high loss to win ratios are not that uncommon and can last for a very, very long time.  Long enough to bring you to the point of being so deep in the hole that when you look up all you see is tiny dot that's the light shining in about a mile up there.  You start to wonder if you'll live long enough to ever climb back out.

The slowest bet method is a flatbet.  It has the same problems as a progression in that if wins don't stay ahead of losses or if losses run ahead and wins never catch up, you just keep going deeper into the hole.

So, what Steve and others say is true.  Bet selection is king.  Right along side of luck.  Without a bet selection that gives you an advantage, you're only ace in the hole is luck.

Think about it,

GLC

[ddarko]

Without a bet selection that gives you an advantage, you're only ace in the hole is luck.

Care to expand on this sentence please GLC ?

do you mean what you bet EC's/single number/doz/col/streets/lines ? or something else.....

thanking you in advance 

[GLC]

Care to expand on this sentence please GLC ?

do you mean what you bet EC's/single number/doz/col/streets/lines ? or something else.....

thanking you in advance 

It can be on any bet location. 

Mathematically it's impossible to find a mechanical bet selection method that gives us an advantage.  Some are so complicated that it takes forever to realize that it's a long term loser.

Maybe using precognition can make up a percent or two.  I've heard of such things and even tried it a few times.  If you think about it, trying to guess the next even chance or dozen or line etc... shouldn't give your worse odds and if you do have a little psychic giftedness, you just might surprise yourself.  A flatbet would be the way to go with this experiment.

GLC

[jarabo002]

I am completely agree with you George, but I prefer POSITIVE progressions. Its a question of preferences, its something purely psycological, its a manner to search the beauty of the game in every gamble.

In the other hand, I dont believe in Bets Selections, but in Money Management.

[ddarko]

A flatbet would be the way to go with this experiment.

flatbet IS the best & only MM  IMHO

thanks for getting back to me 

[ddarko]

In the other hand, I dont believe in Bets Selections, but in Money Management.

hehehe

I DO believe in bet selection & flatbetting is the one & only way to go for me 

[nottophammer]

 
Mr dd, do you play inside bets only or outside only or both

[ddarko]

Mr dd, do you play inside bets only or outside only or both

Ec's Mr.Hammer. I don't win regularly enough but like most of us I'm attempting to change that 

Of course Ec's could be an inside bet as well !!!!!!

[GLC]

I am attaching a file I've had in my library that has at least some reasons why he bets a certain way.  If you haven't read something like this before, it's probably worth spending a half hour or so reading it.  I'd like to know what some of you think.

GLC

If you can't open it, let me know and I'll post it another, less convenient way.