Dane´s JAW OF THE THIRDS

[Dane]

Many years ago I lost money by buying a German system.
I read that the inventor of the system on the thirds (dozens) after decades was able to reveal this truth:

Within two spins you´ll hit the dozen that you chose.

Within seconds we are able to confirm this truth with a little help from a calculator.
Ignoring zero I realize this: 1-(2/3)^2 = 0.555555555.

We might be able to use this knowledge in smaller parts of the game
An example: There are THREE "thirds" (single numbers) in any street.
If we bet the EARLIEST number in each street appearing, and stop as soon as TWO streets have appeared more than once,
we should leave with at least one hit in 55.55 % or all sessions.

[TwoCatSam]

Allrighty.........

I'll be the first to admit I don't understand this.

With my limited knowledge of math, I can't understand the equation.  I do know for a fact you will not hit a dozen in two tries with any consistency.  Hey, we all know that.

Could someone comment on the idea you will hit your chosen dozen in two spins?  Would someone care to explain the equation?  In English, please.  This is the way I read it.  Am I right?  "Divide two by three and get 66.66.  Multiply 66.66 by 66.66% and subtract the 44.43 from one."
Something like that?

TwoCat

[Colbster]

You have it about right Sam.  The house wins 2/3 of the time when we bet on a dozen.  For it to win twice, the odds are 2/3*2/3, or 4/9 (0.44444).  Our odds of winning are the remainder (0.5555555).  For the real picky, it is 25/37*25/37 or 625/1369 or 45.654% for the house, 54.347% in our favor counting the zero.

[TwoCatSam]

Thank you, Colbster!

This will give me something to study on. 

And, of course, thanks to Dane for his always-intriguing ideas.

Sam

[RouletteGhost]

Dane, please elaborate on what you mean

[Dane]

Dane, please elaborate on what you mean

I think that Colbster has explained the basic procedure.
For the real picky he included zero.
I preferred to ignore zero. You see, each street can be perceived as three thirds, three single numbers
Right after two streets each hitting more than once,
we should be able to count on the probability 0.555555555555555.
Right in our JAWS! 

[RouletteGhost]

Just so i understand. What you are saying is that statistics shows if a street has a repeat (back to back) start betting on it To hit again because theres a 55% chance

The basic idea.is to start  betting the numbers  in a street that repeats?

[Turner]

RG
In this example...the formula is this
When a number comes..we bet it and we are on that street. Continue until 2 streets have hit more than 3 times. Only betting 1 in each street. Other hits in the same streets are wins or counts to 3.
You are slightly better than evens playing this formula.
Perhaps I misunderstood

[psimoes]

So we have better chances of winning on single dozens for the second spin after a virtual loss on the first?

I thought the odds stayed the same for every trial...

[Dane]

The odds stay the same for every spin.
But if you calculate
what happens within more spins, you´ll have other probabilities.
Colbster explained the calculating procedure very well.
The way I could  have used the 0.555555555555555
1st of December at table 3 in Spielbank Wiesbaden:

34...I start betting 34
6.... -   -       -         6
29...-   -       -        29
1....-    -       -         1
2... NOW I LEAVE 1.
27...I start betting 27
0
34..HIT. In area 1-36 two streets have hit more than once.

[psimoes]

Thanks. I don't understand the streets part. Need coffee. How would you do with DS and splits?

[TwoCatSam]

OK, I'll try a summation.   (I have to put things in my own words before I understand them.)

We bet each number that comes UNLESS AND UNTIL  a second number in that street comes  (When the 2 came, he abandoned the 1.)  That street is then dead.  We continue betting single numbers until, a) we win or b) two streets have two numbers hit.  Then we start over.

Can't wait to sneak off to Riverwind and walk this puppy 'round the block.

Sam

[Turner]

Dane...its a great example of building a formula based on maths.

[Dane]

Thanks. I don't understand the streets part. Need coffee. How would you do with DS and splits?

Yes, take a coffee break! Read back my posts!
And look at this:

We have just worked on single numbers.
It´s time for splits or cheveaux.

34...In DS 31-36 I start betting split (cheval) 31-34.
6.... In DS  1-6    -  -       -         -    3-6
29...In DS 25-30 -   -       -        -     26-29
1....As you might have guessed, I divided DS 1-6 into THREE splits: 1-4, 2-5 and 3-6.
      This double street or six line has appeared more than once. So I leave it and stop betting the earliest chosen split there!

2
27...Two of the six well known DS have each appeared more than once. So this session ends here.

Now let´s try the procedure on DS.
We divide 1-18 into THREE THIRDS: 1-6, 7-12 and 13-18.
  -     -    19-36  -       -          -      : 19-24, 25-30 and 31-36.

34...Start betting DS 31-36.
6..... -        -       DS 1-6.
29....Area 19-36 has appeared more than once. We leave it and its earliest DS.
1.....  -      1-18    -       -           -       -       -   .  -    -      -    -   -      -       DS.
          This time we won.

Time for a cup of coffee 

[psimoes]

OK, I'll try a summation.   (I have to put things in my own words before I understand them.)

We bet each number that comes UNLESS AND UNTIL  a second number in that street comes  (When the 2 came, he abandoned the 1.)  That street is then dead.  We continue betting single numbers until, a) we win or b) two streets have two numbers hit.  Then we start over.

Can't wait to sneak off to Riverwind and walk this puppy 'round the block.

Sam

Thanks, Sam. Are you going to a B&M? Would you mind posting the table limits in the thread, please? And happy winnings!