Dane´s JAW OF THE THIRDS

[Dane]

It's not obvious yet. 2/3 is the same as 8/12, not 2/12, or even 4/12 counting on two streets repeating. If you take that liberty you won't gain any edge. If you win it's due to luck only. Is it just me?

When some street repeats, the probability of hitting the chosen number there is exactly 1/3.
When another street repeats, the probability of hitting the chosen number there is exactly 1/3.

                            1-(2/3)^2 = 0.555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555

[JimmieB]

Hi Dane,

Thanks for sharing, and I understand the odds, just the one question when betting the numbers on the street, why do you end the session when the second street repeats with no win?

Regards
Jim

[psimoes]

When some street repeats, the probability of hitting the chosen number there is exactly 1/3.
When another street repeats, the probability of hitting the chosen number there is exactly 1/3.

                            1-(2/3)^2 = 0.555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555

Yes, but there are 12 streets on the carpet, and each one has the same probability of hitting as any other, 1/12. You can go bust before your winning street hits, not mentioning you're only betting one number within that street. But, if you still apply that formula to streets you might have a better chance, that's what I thought the purpose of your choice on streets was: 1-(8/12)^2. You'd have to think in terms of every 4 streets or 8 per 2 spins... in other words, use the formula to win on a group of streets and at the same time to win on a straight within each street... Same results as when betting dozens, but much better resolution if you can say that, although much more expensive. I really thought we could use this formula to arrange our bet selection in some form of fractal mechanics. Sorry I can't explain myself better.

[Dane]

Hi Dane,

Thanks for sharing, and I understand the odds, just the one question when betting the numbers on the street, why do you end the session when the second street repeats with no win?

Regards
Jim

Of course this is not a course on basic probabilities.
But I hope that some of you might getting used to think within probabilities. 1-(2/3)^2 =
0.555555555555 fascinated me. If I were to continue the procedure,
I had to grab my calculator again and look at
                                                                       1-(2/3)^3
                                                                       1-(2/3)^4
                                                                       1-(2/3)^5
                                                                and so forth and so on

[RouletteGhost]

Thanks for further explaining. So let me show an example

1 bet--------1
25 bet-------25
3----------remove chip from number 1
12-------place chip on 12

Also, why not place a chip on another number in the street. If 1 shows bet 2  if if 17 shows bet 16 etc or does the idea only work betting the same number?

[Dane]

Thanks for further explaining. So let me show an example

1 bet--------1
25 bet-------25
3----------remove chip from number 1
12-------place chip on 12

Also, why not place a chip on another number in the street. If 1 shows bet 2  if if 17 shows bet 16 etc or does the idea only work betting the same number?

You seem to master the procedure.
Choosing 2 INSTEAD of 1
      -     16 INSTEAD of 17 does not change the chances!
We are not supersticious, I hope.

[RouletteGhost]

We could place a chip on the entire street as the numbers come then remove the chip on 2nd hit as well? This way all numbers in street are covered

[wyldegibson]

We could place a chip on the entire street as the numbers come then remove the chip on 2nd hit as well? This way all numbers in street are covered

You could but how would you know that particular street is going to be the one that hits over any other? Furthermore you no longer have the advantage of 55% in your favor. I'm not sure what's so hard to understand here. Dane has given perfect examples and I truly thank him for opening up our eyes to a higher probability. This is all flatbetting guys so it should take quite awhile to "lose" your BR. You are certainly not going to win every game. There will still be variance, highs and lows, etc. But....and a big but is that you actually do have an edge over the casino in playing this way. Casino's lose to players too in the short term but if you played this way in the long term you will indeed be a winner. Look at Dane's perfect example before and understand it. I'm not sure what more you want him to tell you. It is really not that difficult lol.

[TwoCatSam]

DRIFTING SLIGHTLY OFF TOPIC..............

(Any deleting fingers, feel free........)

OK, assume the math is correct.  In two spins, you have a 55.55% chance (baring zero) of hitting your dozen.  In a fair game, you would have a 5.5% edge over the house.  Mathematically, we know this is true but empirical evidence tells us it is not.  Otherwise, I could create a mechanical, stay-at-home robot to punch the keys and make me wealthy on 5.5%.  I know I can't.  The question is why??  Why can't I??

I am going to go out on a limb here and say it's because of trends.  The wheel simply trends in the wrong direction, just as it does when you are betting red and black eats your lunch.

I see all this as either a conundrum or a paradox.  Perhaps a paradox wrapped in a conundrum!  I am pretty much burnt out on most roulette ideas/systems, but this one has me by the ying-yang!

I shall not rush to the casino, but shall creep every so cautiously next week and wager my quarters.

TwoCat

[RouletteGhost]

Im a little slow

If a street hits and you bet any number in that street until it hits again and do the continuously as numbers come how does that create the 55%

I understand the part where when a number hits you choose any number in that street and place a chip

[wyldegibson]

Im a little slow

If a street hits and you bet any number in that street until it hits again and do the continuously as numbers come how does that create the 55%

I understand the part where when a number hits you choose any number in that street and place a chip

I'm not sure you do as Dane already said your betting the EARLIEST NUMBER that came up in the street so I'm not sure what number your betting on??? Your really making this far more confusing for yourself than it needs to be. Please read Dane's very first post for this topic and his first example with his spins to understand the percentages and how to play this. If you can't understand it from there I think it may be best to try something else.

[RouletteGhost]

As dane previously stated, i understand it. It is you making it confusing.

I just wanted  to mention the possibility  of betting  the entire street

[wyldegibson]

I understand the part where when a number hits you choose any number in that street and place a chip

I'm just going off what you just said. You do NOT choose any number in the street, you are playing the Earliest or FIRST number in the street. Otherwise you would not have any advantage. I'm sorry, I'm just going off what your saying and I feek like you really don't understand this at all.

[RouletteGhost]

Ok

[Turner]

Within two spins you´ll hit the dozen that you chose.

Dane, Can you explain this