The maths be-hide this system

[hkl8324]

I get a fail on Math on high school. So If someone can help me to get the expected value of this system.
I will be very happy.
This system is simple.
I just bet on dozens. Wait for an area of dozens not appearing for 6 times in a roll. Then start betting that area using progression
1,2,3,4,6,9,13,20,30,45,67 if I win, I start from waiting for 6 consecutive no-hit. If I lose after 17 consecutive lose, I still bet on that area but from the beginning of the progression until I win.

And how do you define consecutive and independent event? I want to know if the waiting of 6 no-hit is irrelevant or not.
is it that 12/37^17 is my probability of losing 301(1+...+67) units?

[GLC]

Mathematically waiting for a dozen to miss 6 times and then betting it 11 times with a martingale is the same as not waiting for 6 misses in a row and betting it for an 11 step martingale.  It's just that it will take a lot longer for you finally have a dozen sleep 17 times in a row.  Think about this.  If you were betting an 11 step marty continuously on a dozen, you will have more losses, but you will be winning a unit for every time the dozen hits within 11 spins.  By waiting 6 hits before starting to bet, you give up a lot of wins between 1 and 6.

The reason the math doesn't change is because the wheel doesn't know that the dozen has missed the last 6 times.  When you place your bet on the 7th miss, it could be the 1st miss from the wheel's perspective.

I'm as guilty of posting systems based on this aspect of gambler's fallacy as the next guy.  As a matter of fact I posted a topic titled "Due".  It's one of the curses of the internet.  If you say something stupid it's out there for the whole world to see.  That's why nude selfies are a no, no.  It's the same thing I tell people who start smoking.  "If you live long enough, you'll regret starting this habit because it's a thousand times harder to stop it than to start it.

It's kind of like starting to eat fried foods.  If you live long enough, you'll regret it.  Like I do.

Cheers,

GLC

P.S.  I didn't fail at math, but it was so long ago that your question is way over my pay grade.

P.S.S.  Having said all that, if you like the system and can stand a progression loss or two, have fun.  You may be one of the lucky ones.

P.S.S.S.  From a purely math perspective, it's no worse than any other system.  As a matter of fact, from a mathematical perspective, it's exactly the same as any other system.

[hkl8324]

By quoting "Gambler fallacy"
You are like saying that the probability of 11 consecutive no-hit
and 16 consecutive no-hit are the same. How can I be?

Gambler fallacy is just true for short-run if I understand it correctly.
The larger the sample size (spins) the more the outcome match to the expected statistical value calculated.
Should it be waiting longer be better? Coz the sample size nearly doubled.

[GLC]

Here's the DEFINITION of 'Gambler's Fallacy'

When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events. This line of thinking is incorrect because past events do not change the probability that certain events will occur in the future.

INVESTOPEDIA EXPLAINS 'Gambler's Fallacy'

For example, consider a series of 20 coin flips that have all landed with the "heads" side up. Under the gambler's fallacy, a person might predict that the next coin flip is more likely to land with the "tails" side up.

This line of thinking represents an inaccurate understanding of probability because the likelihood of a fair coin turning up heads is always 50%. Each coin flip is an independent event, which means that any and all previous flips have no bearing on future flips.

HKL,

Instead of "coin flips" you can substitute "spins of the wheel" in roulette.  It's the same logic.

Every time you have a dozen sleep 6 times in a row, there's still 2 chances in 3 that it will sleep 7 times in a row (ignoring the zero).  And if it does sleep 7 times in a row, there's still 2 chances in 3 that it will sleep 8 times in a row.  You are risking 200 units that you won't find a dozen sleeping 17 times.  That means that you have 201 times that a dozen sleeps 6 times in a row and goes on to hit within 11 bets.  If you didn't have a zero, your odds would be exactly 200 wins verses 1 loss.  The zero makes the payoff unfair and that's what gives the house their edge. 

No matter how many times you wait for a dozen to sleep, you can never change the odds against you.  If you waited for a dozen to sleep 17 times and then started betting your 11 step marty, you would not have changed the odds.  If you did, everyone would be playing that way.  It would be boring as heck waiting for a betting opportunity.

I know what I'm saying doesn't appear to make sense, but believe me when I say that most of the old timers on this forum have been down this road.

One person has said that they have a bot that plays for a variety of sleepers followed by a series of marty bets but they are waiting for like 17 even chances missing and then betting like a 5 step marty that it won't go beyond 22 misses.  For dozens they wait for a dozen to sleep like 24 times and then start betting on it.  The bot plays all the time.  It doesn't get bored even if it doesn't get to bet for hours.  This person says that they are a net winner with their bot.  I can't confirm this.  They're looking for sleeping lines, streets, corners, splits and straight up numbers to bet on.

You could bet for the rest of your life and never see a dozen sleep 22 times in a row or the first time you see one sleep 17 times and you start betting on it, it could sleep another 5 times.

Your odds of a dozen sleeping 17 times in a row are much greater than for a dozen to sleep 11 more times every time it starts with 6 misses.  You'll have many more wins if you start betting right after the dozen hits that it won't miss 17 times that if you start betting after it has slept 6 times.  The problem is that a 17 step martingale costs much more than an 11 step martingale but the units you win when you wait for 6 misses before starting to bet are much, much less that the units you win when you start betting right after a hit.  It's the cost on a loss that balances everything out.

Think about it.  You'll see what I mean.

GLC

[hkl8324]

Yes I know that definition but does it contradict to what occur in the long run?
In 10 spins, gambler fallacy is true
in 100 spins ,may be
but in 1000 spins, not so

The wheel is not due in the short-run but is due in the long-run.
And on top of that, h ttp://:.loothog.com/Systems/GapTest.php
for any given 400 spins (assume it is the spins for a pro-player full time play in a day)
the gap will not be more that 17 average. And even with 100000 spins, will not over 40.

According to the gambler fallacy. It is still possible for a 80 consecutive no-hit to occur but not so in real life.

[hkl8324]

NoNoNo
I am not going to use this forever
I just want to make 1000 to 5000 with this, that is my goal.

[Chris555p]

@hk18234 -  Sorry to sound negative however this sort of system has been tried for years and it tanks.....;
If it was that easy to win at roulette, everyone will be doing it and we'll be rich by next tuesday....lol lol 

[TwoCatSam]

we'll be rich by next tuesday

Chris

Why is it always Tuesday with you?  Why not Monday?  I need the money!!

  Sam

[Chris555p]

@ Sam - Good question mate; It is coz tuesday has always been my Lucky day......lol lol 

[gorki]

Repeating last 10 black - red (ec)..... It's seen often.
Repeating last 10 if all of them of 10 are black or red.....Almost never

WhY?

[ego]

If you reply to this, then i will try to help you.
All we have is statistics and odds.

32 times in a row has two dozen hit or one dozen have sleept for 32 times in a row (1 milion trails).
This means you have to start playing after 22 in a row with 11 step progression to cover 33 times in a row.

You should pick one dominant.
For example that you only track dozen 1 and only dozen 1.
Because you more you mix with more options, so will variance/fluctation be bigger.

You might want a trigger at 15 or above as 26 and above is very rare.
I just run 300 trails using RX - Roulette Extreme - if you not have that tool i suggest you get it because it make you a winner if you are clever, because can you simulate winnings then reality is the same thing.

Here you can see that dozen 1 sleept once 22 times.



Here you can see that dozen 2 sleept 12 times.



Here yo can see that dozen 3 sleept 17 times.



If you would have play all dozen and have trigger 16 you would hav won twice that day/evnining.

Cheers

[ego]

Think like this, you bet that it will not be a new world record, conclusion 22 times with 11 step progression.

Here is one example if you start from 15 in a row during one week play.
If you track 300 trail each day.
But this was all dozen and colums tracking.

1 bets won
6 bets won
3 bets won
2 bets won
3 bets won
6 bets won
5 bets won

260 Euro

Cheers

[ego]

I test this for 4 weeks playing every day 300 trails.
The higest peak was 23 in a row.
Total for progression is 140 units and you won 70 units and can play and operate with casino money.

1
6
3
2
3
6
5

26 units

1
3
4
1
3
4
0

16 units

1
3
2
1
1
0
2

10 units

3
0
5
5
1
2
2

18 units

[ego]

 I got 19 20 21 22 23 when testing ...
Maybe 5 to 8 bets during 4 weeks ,,, very extreme and i talking about the blending edge ...

I only have a 11 step progression for dozen that give a unit at each step.

1 +2
1 +1
2 +2
3 +2
4 +1
6 +1
9 +1
14 +2
21 +2
31 +1
47 +2

There is two options here.
One is to stretch the progression and make it accept small loses in the middel and at the end, so the first bets win +1 unit or break even.
And the other solution after the last bet of the progression is to bet half the size of the total amount of the progression.

That way you could bet against 19 to 30 with the first option and from 30 to 33 using the last option.
But to build such progression you need to know your table minimum and maximum.

Then you have the chance to play at rare events with out losing during your life time.
But the table can break the record the first day, but the odds are extreme good.

The Blending Edge

19
20 1 +2
21 1 +1
22 1 +0
23 2 +1
24 3 +1
25 4 +0
26 6 +0
27 9 +0
28 14 +1
29 21 +1
30 31 +0
31 47 +1
32 70 +0
33

[nottophammer]

Hi Ego is your report for live or rng. Have seen a dozen miss on rng for 33 spins in uk betting shop supplier global draw. Know this as i've been there and done it.
I started to bet the missing dozen when told of the idea which was posted on the internet. It said wait for 1 doz to miss 5, guarnteed to come in in11 spins, this it did for months in bookies, but alas they must have changed the program, perhaps to many people playing it.
Bruv had a mate doing this idea was making thousands on smartlive, but even he did lose some, he would bet the four corners in the dozen,starting with 25p chips and double up,cant remember the prog,but if the middle column come in  think he could win around 4'000