Mr Oops! Finding of single number repeat.

[P.A]

[copied from the Late Mr.Oops! [web, which no more in the net]

Gentlemen,
Below an interesting article, I manage to save, before the web gone.
It may or may not accurate, nevertheless some strategy could derived from it.



==========================
WAIT FOR A REPEAT
The tables in this section will answer the question "How many spins do I have to wait, until the last winning outcome repeats?"
The winning outcome can be any one of the single numbers, single or double streets, dozens, columns or the even chances.

The answer is shown in the form of a "hit table" with the total numbers of found first repeats noted for each spin (also in % and accum values).
Example (bottom of page)

The waitings are 1 to 36 spins (plus accumulated longer) or 1 to 111 (plus accumulated longer) - see below - for the single numbers, 1 to 36 (+ acc l) for the single streets, 1 to 18 (+ a l) for double streets, 1 to 9 (+ a l) for dozens and columns, and 1 to 6 (+ a l) for the even chances.

Top of Page To make these tables, every outcome (0, 17, 5th double street, red etc) got its own counter. The counter was intialized to zero when the first occurrence of the outcome was found and then incremented by one for each spin after that, until the next occurrence when the counter (after the counting has been taken into the table) was again initialized to zero.

This means, that no counting was made until after the first occurrence of the outcome. Example for single numbers - start of a day's sequence:

11, 23, 15, 1, 12, 10, 23, 10, 10

At this moment, between spins nine and ten, only 11, 23, 15, 1, 12 and 10 have counters that are initialized. The counter for 11 is at 8, 15 at 6, 1 at 5, 12 at 4, 23 at 2 and the counter for 10 is at 0.

Countings that have been taken into the table at or before this moment are 5 (for 23), 2 (for first 10) and 1 (second 10).


At end-of-day (or after 50th spin where only 50 were available) or end-of-file, no active counters were taken into the tables. This means, that the absence of a repeat until day's end was not counted for. Example for single numbers - end of a day's sequence:

. . . 14, 32, 0, 17, 32, 12

At this moment, after the last spin of the day or file, the counter for 14 is at 5, 0 at 3, 17 at 2, 32 at 1 and the counter for 12 is at 0. None of these countings are taken into the table.

A new day, or a completely new file, resets all counters to the un-initialized state.

This is why the tables do not add upp to the total number of spins.



repeat:



This is why the tables do not add upp to the total number of spins.



LEGEND:
Rpt at: 1st repeat found at this spin after prev occurrence
N o R: Total number of 1st repeats found, at this spin
% o T: % of total 1st repeats found (in 362021 spins)
AN o R: Accumulated number of 1st repeats found
A% o T: Accumulated % of total 1st repeats found (in 362021 spins)

SINGLE NUMBERS (full days)

This table is Copyright © 1999 by XerxX
Rpt at N o R % o T AN o R A% o T
----------------------------------------
1st 9673 3.054 9673 3.054
2nd 9539 3.012 19212 6.066
3rd 9097 2.872 28309 8.938
4th 8901 2.810 37210 11.748
5th 8667 2.736 45877 14.484
6th 8415 2.657 54292 17.141
7th 8204 2.590 62496 19.731
8th 7905 2.496 70401 22.227
9th 7712 2.435 78113 24.661
10th 7331 2.315 85444 26.976
11th 7170 2.264 92614 29.240
12th 6880 2.172 99494 31.412
13th 6778 2.140 106272 33.552
14th 6619 2.090 112891 35.641
15th 6322 1.996 119213 37.637
16th 6107 1.928 125320 39.565
17th 6022 1.901 131342 41.467
18th 5828 1.840 137170 43.307
19th 5552 1.753 142722 45.060
20th 5417 1.710 148139 46.770
21st 5288 1.670 153427 48.439
22nd 5086 1.606 158513 50.045
23rd 4866 1.536 163379 51.581
24th 4755 1.501 168134 53.082
25th 4635 1.463 172769 54.546
26th 4349 1.373 177118 55.919
27th 4344 1.371 181462 57.290
28th 4100 1.294 185562 58.585
29th 4018 1.269 189580 59.853
30th 4027 1.271 193607 61.125
31st 3890 1.228 197497 62.353
32nd 3751 1.184 201248 63.537
33rd 3585 1.132 204833 64.669
34th 3609 1.139 208442 65.808
35th 3424 1.081 211866 66.889
36th 3312 1.046 215178 67.935
37th 3177 1.003 218355 68.938 Top of Page
38th 3141 0.992 221496 69.930
39th 2961 0.935 224457 70.865
40th 2950 0.931 227407 71.796
41st 2803 0.885 230210 72.681
42nd 2829 0.893 233039 73.574
43rd 2539 0.802 235578 74.376
44th 2459 0.776 238037 75.152
45th 2467 0.779 240504 75.931
46th 2430 0.767 242934 76.698
47th 2344 0.740 245278 77.438
48th 2237 0.706 247515 78.144
49th 2247 0.709 249762 78.854
50th 2136 0.674 251898 79.528
51st 2145 0.677 254043 80.205
52nd 2025 0.639 256068 80.845
53rd 1957 0.618 258025 81.462
54th 1838 0.580 259863 82.043
55th 1822 0.575 261685 82.618
56th 1732 0.547 263417 83.165
57th 1670 0.527 265087 83.692
58th 1641 0.518 266728 84.210
59th 1531 0.483 268259 84.693
60th 1589 0.502 269848 85.195
61st 1468 0.463 271316 85.659
62nd 1480 0.467 272796 86.126
63rd 1411 0.445 274207 86.571
64th 1347 0.425 275554 86.997
65th 1278 0.403 276832 87.400
66th 1307 0.413 278139 87.813
67th 1206 0.381 279345 88.194
68th 1221 0.385 280566 88.579
69th 1097 0.346 281663 88.925
70th 1115 0.352 282778 89.277
71st 1108 0.350 283886 89.627
72nd 1023 0.323 284909 89.950
73rd 1043 0.329 285952 90.279
74th 973 0.307 286925 90.587
75th 981 0.310 287906 90.896 Top of Page
76th 899 0.284 288805 91.180
77th 900 0.284 289705 91.464
78th 881 0.278 290586 91.742
79th 803 0.254 291389 91.996
80th 798 0.252 292187 92.248
81st 784 0.248 292971 92.495
82nd 785 0.248 293756 92.743
83rd 718 0.227 294474 92.970
84th 741 0.234 295215 93.204
85th 645 0.204 295860 93.408
86th 672 0.212 296532 93.620
87th 661 0.209 297193 93.828
88th 662 0.209 297855 94.037
89th 602 0.190 298457 94.227
90th 615 0.194 299072 94.422
91st 586 0.185 299658 94.607
92nd 541 0.171 300199 94.777
93rd 574 0.181 300773 94.959
94th 527 0.166 301300 95.125
95th 495 0.156 301795 95.281
96th 474 0.150 302269 95.431
97th 499 0.158 302768 95.589
98th 459 0.145 303227 95.733
99th 456 0.144 303683 95.877
100th 452 0.143 304135 96.020
101st 423 0.134 304558 96.154
102nd 399 0.126 304957 96.280
103rd 394 0.124 305351 96.404
104th 402 0.127 305753 96.531
105th 371 0.117 306124 96.648
106th 312 0.099 306436 96.747
107th 338 0.107 306774 96.853
108th 353 0.111 307127 96.965
109th 299 0.094 307426 97.059
110th 339 0.107 307765 97.166
111th 314 0.099 308079 97.265
>111th 8662 2.735 316741 100.000

316741 = 87.492% of 362021

=================================================
=====================================

   below my ides.
---------------------------
    Below a table to see how profit vs losses, till the &th spin.


    ========================

    1st 3.054% x35=106.89u,[-96.946%]x1=-96.946
    2nd 6.066% x34=206.244u,[-93.934% ]x2=-187.868
    3rd 8.938% x33=294.954u,[-91.062% ]x3=-273.186
    4th 11.748% x32=375.936u,[-88.252%]x4=-353.008
    5th 14.484% x31=449.004u,[-85.516% ]x5=-427.58
    6th 17.141% x30=514.23u,[-82.859% ]x6=-497.154
    7th 19.731% x29=572.199u,[-80.269%]x7=-561.883
    -----------------------------------------
    produce losses
    8th 22.227% x28=622.356u,[-77.773%]x8=-622.184
    9th 24.661% x27=665.847,[-75.339 ]x9=-678.051
    10th 26.976% x26=701.376,[-73.024 ]x10=-730.24
    11th 29.240% x25=731, [-70.76 ]x11=-778.36

    =================================
    --------------------
    It is very interesting to note that , if the finding is accurate, or near accurate,
    Then the first to seventh bet will be positive.
    Or am I wrong somewhere?

    ---------------------
    How to read.
    1st 3.054% x35=106.89u,[-96.946%]x1=-96.946

    1st=bet the last spin result for the next FIRST spin.
    ------------
    3.054%=The percentage of winning hit.
    ----------------------


    x35=Multilpy 35unit, since first win=36-1=1unit flatbet.
    ------------------
    =106.89u,= 3.054% winning times 35unit=106.89

    --------------------

    [-96.946%]=losing percentage
    ------------------

    x1=bet flat=1unit losses.

    --------------------
    -96.946=losing unit.



    ---------------------
    Thus we see the winning more than the losses, till the 7th spin.
    From, the 8th spin, upward, produce LOSSES.

    What U THINK?
    ========================
     
   

    Sorry, this should being posted earlier.

    How to bet?
    Say, U bet till 7th spin.

    Last spin result=X.

    Bet X for next 7spins.

    Win probability.

    19.731% x29=572.199u,
    ---------
    losing probability=

    [-80.269%]x-7=-561.883

    POSITIVE?
    -----------------------------------------

    If hit at 7th spin,
    then 36-7=+29unit.

    If lose all 7 spin=-7unit, since flatbet.

    NOW the onus is at the accuracy of the finding.
    If U, gentlemen has capability to test a million spins,
    please post the result here .

    thanks in advance.
     

[P.A]

Dear xxx,
Thanks for your reply.

U are right when u say VARIANCE.
Only if someone understand the variance, then only one win for long term.
But fortunately, for the casino,
or unfortunately, for the gamblers,
people seems lack of initiative, or ability,
to understand the variance.

==================
Below a sample of how variance kills the strategy.


Bet a decision, for next seven spins, hoping to hit withinn seven spins.
Abandon bet after seven bet that fail to hit.
Stop bet, after hit, do not bet the rest spins.
----------------------------
Example
   9 first decision, bet 9 for next seven spins.
   1  Number 9, failed to hit,
  12  Number 9, failed to hit,
  27  Number 9, failed to hit,
31    Number 9, failed to hit,
  30  Number 9, failed to hit,
   7  Number 9, failed to hit,
4  [-7] Number 9, failed to hit, losses=-7.
13   [-7]Number 1, failed to hit, losses=-7.
10   [-7]Number 12, failed to hit, losses=-7.
8   [-7]Number 27, failed to hit, losses=-7.
33   [-7]Number 31, failed to hit, losses=-7.
8   [-7]+34 number 8 hit, at second attempt.
16 [-7] stop  the number 8 bet.
28   [-7]
  14 [-7]
  12 [-7]Number10, failed to hit, losses=-7.






==========================
Spielbank Hamburg
Tisch 0001
02.01.2001
Gewinnzahlen:
   9
   1
  12
  27
31
  30
   7
4  [-7]
13   [-7]
10   [-7]
8   [-7]
33   [-7]
8   [-7]+34
  16 [-7]
28   [-7]
  14 [-7]
  12 [-7]
15
  16 [-7]+31
   7 [-7]
  21
10   [-7]
31   [-7]
  25 [-7]
20   [-7]
28   [-7]
   9 [-7]
35   [-7]
  34 [-7]
29   [-7]
35   [-7]+33
  32 [-7]
6   [-7]
  19 [-7]
   7
   9 [-7]
29      +20
28   [-7]
  36 [-7]
26   [-7]
  23 [-7]
  32 [-7]
15   [-7]
33   [-7]
  25 [-7]
10   [-7]
   1 [-7]
35   [-7]
31   [-7]
6   [-7]
   9 [-7]
  32 [-7]
   1 [-7]+30
  21
24   [-7]
8   [-7]
24   [-7]+34
  30 [-7]
  34 [-7]
10   [-7]
  32 [-7]
29
17   [-7]
   7 [-7]
  23 [-7]
  23 [-7]+35
20   [-7]
10   [-7]
   3 [-7]
28   [-7]
11   [-7]
  12
24   [-7]
  25 [-7]
  14 [-7]
2   [-7]
28       +29
  21 [-7]
   5 [-7]
33   [-7]
26   [-7]
  34 [-7]
22   [-7]
35   [-7]
   9 [-7]
   9 [-7]+35
  14 [-7]
2   [-7]
28   [-7]
6   [-7]
28   [-7]+34
15
  14 [-7]+30
00
  25 [-7]
15       +32
13   [-7]
  16 [-7]
13   [-7]+34
33   [-7]
  34 [-7]
24   [-7]
17   [-7]
  34    +33
  16    +29
26   [-7]
29   [-7]
   1
10   [-7]
31   [-7]
   7 [-7]
   3 [-7]
  21 [-7]
13   [-7]
22   [-7]
   9 [-7]
26   [-7]
  23 [-7]
  34 [-7]
  30 [-7]
20   [-7]
26   [-7]+31
28   [-7]
00
  16 [-7]
  36 [-7]
   3 [-7]
15   [-7]
  19 [-7]
  36 [-7]
  18 [-7]
  36 [-7]+30
20
   3     +29
  18 [-7]+32
22   [-7]
24   [-7]
  32
28   [-7]
22   [-7]+32
  32 [-7]+33
11   [-7]
33
24      +29
24      +35
35   [-7]
13   [-7]
   5 [-7]
31   [-7]
6   [-7]
26
  18 [-7]
8   [-7]
8   [-7]+5
  34 [-7]
   3 [-7]
  23 [-7]
  27 [-7]
29   [-7]
22
  19 [-7]
  14 [-7]
   1 [-7]
35   [-7]
  16 [-7]
6   [-7]
2   [-7]
  12 [-7]
15   [-7]
   9 [-7]
17   [-7]
13   [-7]
2   [-7]+30
15       +31
  16 [-7]
  34
  25 [-7]
   5 [-7]
35   [-7]
2      +29
00  [-7]
  19 [-7]
10   [-7]
4   [-7]
   7 [-7]
13   [-7]
  18 [-7]
15   [-7]
8   [-7]
  18 [-7]+33
8   [-7]+34
  21 [-7]
   1 [-7]
8      +33
  21 [-7]+33
  23
31   [-7]
33
4   
   3  [-7]
17    [-7]
35    [-7]
  27  [-7]
  14  [-7]
  18  [-7]
24    [-7]
   7  [-7]
4    [-7]
22    [-7]
  14  [-7]+30
   1
   9  [-7]
   7  [-7]+30
28
  21  [-7]
  30  [-7]
6    [-7]
17    [-7]
24    [-7]
   1  [-7]
  32  [-7]
2    [-7]
2    [-7]+35
   7  [-7]
26    [-7]
35    [-7]
15    [-7]
28    [-7]
17
   1  [-7]
  30  [-7]
   9  [-7]
  23  [-7]
  19  [-7]
   7  [-7]
33    [-7]
  21  [-7]
  23     +29
  34  [-7]
   7      +31
   7  [-7]+35
20
  23  [-7]+31
4    [-7]
11
33    [-7]
13
20    [-7]+30
  19
00   [-7]
  23  [-7]
   1  [-7]
22    [-7]
4    [-7]
4    [-7]+35
24    [-7]
  19  [-7]
31    [-7]
  25  [-7]
   1  [-7]
   3
35    [-7]
  19  [-7]+30
  21
  12  [-7]
  19  [-7]
   7  [-7]
  12  [-7]
  23  [-7]
  32  [-7]
31    [-7]
24    [-7]
   7  [-7]+30
  32
20    [-7]
31    [-7]+31
29    [-7]
  16
  16  [-7]
  19  [-7]
17    [-7]
24    [-7]
  23  [-7]
13    [-7]
13    [-7]+35
20    [-7]
  21  [-7]
   5  [-7]
   7  [-7]
4    [-7]
31
15    [-7]
  12  [-7]
   9  [-7]
00   [-7]
4nb    [-7]+30
20 nb
  36nb  [-7]
20nb    [-7]
10 nb   [-7]
   3nb  [-7]
15 nb   [-7]
====
Anzahl Spiele:  302
H剈figkeiten:

302-1st decision-7last decision,not-bet=294 decision being bet.
only 45decision bet=hit within next seven spins.


250x-7=-1750losses

45hit/294betx100=15.3% hit.

[P.A]

Gentlemen,
Thanks for your ideas/opinions.

Thanks GNO,
I see that your quote, interesting.

"But what if, instead playing without waiting for qualifications and VLes, we wait for a little and instead waiting for unique group of 8 or 16, we bet on every number which didn't appear for 15 consecutive spins, betting flat bet for additional 20 spins?"
================

Regarding the VARIANCE,

If the bet selection = bet last decision, to hit in NEXT SEVEN SPINS, then, the probability=
==================
szbox­­­­­­­­­­­ say =17.5% .

Mr.Oops! finding=19.731% .

my inacurate calculation=15.3% hit.
===============================
Thus if we , as GNO suggest,
if we wait for 8 miss, or 16 miss,
then
========================
szbox­­­­­­­­­­­ say =17.5%
100attempt may have 17.5 hit.

Thus after 8 unhit.
The RISK=
100-8=92, there may be 17.5hit/92 remaining attempt.

after 16 unhit.
The RISK=
100-16=84, there may be 17.5hit/84attempt.
======================
Mr.Oops! finding=19.731%
or 19.7/100 attempts.

Thus after 8 unhit.
The RISK=
100-8=92, there may be 19.7hit/92attempt.

after 16 unhit.
The RISK=
100-16=84, there may be 19.7hit/84attempt.
================

and my inacurate finding
=15.3% hit.
=15.3/100attempts

Thus after 8 unhit.
The RISK=
100-8=92,
there may be
15.3 hit/92attempt.

after 16 unhit.
The RISK=
100-16=84, there may be 15.3hit/84attempt.
================

Or in other style of calculation.

If after say 20attempts,
there is only 1 hit,
Then ,
100-20=80remaining attempts,

then...
szbox­­­­­­­­­­­ say =17.5% .
thus , after 1hit in 20attempts

16.6hit/80attempts
=====================
Mr.Oops! finding=19.731% .
thus , after 1 hit in 20attempts,

18.7hit/80attempts
================
my inacurate calculation=15.3% hit.
thus , after 1 hit in 20attempts,
14.3hit/80attempts

============
Since we cant predict future, but bet accordingly to the law of probability, and take risk accordingly, we may bet so that the profit will greater than the losses, in the long run.

That my opinion,
on how to bet variance.
===========
Since I am programing illiterate,
it will be helpful, if someone could do a very long test, preferably, 1millions spins, to get the ,

"bet last decision, single number, to see, how many will hit in first seven spins, in percentage"

Thanks for reading.

[TwoCatSam]

"How many spins do I have to wait, until the last winning outcome repeats?"

Come on, guys!!  Anyone whose been around roulette for a few years knows there is never a guarantee the last number will come twice.  That is what he's saying, isn't it?

OK, the last EC.  Is there a way to know when red will repeat?  I mean--KNOW.  Not guess or be right a few times, but know for certain that red will repeat.  You know there isn't.  What about the last two dozens or colums or the last five double streets?  Nope!

A statement like that is like unto saying, "What action should I take when I find an elephant in my glove box?"

OK, I'm done...

Samster

[P.A]

"How many spins do I have to wait, until the last winning outcome repeats?"

Come on, guys!!  Anyone whose been around roulette for a few years knows there is never a guarantee the last number will come twice.  That is what he's saying, isn't it?

Helo Meow-meow,
Whether u like it or not,
The problem with losing huge is Variance,
It is the difficult variance, long losing streaks, that kills every system,strategy, method or voodoo.

The idea I posted is about waiting for last decision to repeat in only seven future spins, and get off, when hit.

The problem, is we cant foresee future future, thus we take a probability, of how many will hit, in next seven spins.

and wait and bet accordingly, with a risk of losing, of course.

If we , after a million spins test, we confidently take, say, 16% hit  in next seven spins,
per 100 attempt.

we could wait until a long "no-hit", or "only a hit or two, in 30spins", then we risk the remaining probability, in the remaining spin.

example,
if no hit in first 20spins, then we RISK, the next remaining 80spins may have 16hit/80spins.

or in the first 30spins have only  2hit, then we bet there may be 14/70spins, risk.

This is how we bet variance,
I presume.

Of course there will no 100% success, or what am I and u doing here?

[TwoCatSam]

P.A (no period)

What am I doing here?  That is an excellent question.  I am thinking more and more each day I should not be here. 

You speak of variance.  VLS and I spoke of it in 2006.  There simply must be variance.  Anyone with a minimal amount of wheel-time knows this. 

I think I shall take your advice.  Dr. Phil says most questions are statements masquerading as questions.  When you ask what I'm doing here, I think your thrust is I should not be here, and you are probably right.

A famous investor--Mellon or some other banker--once said when street sweepers are giving advice on the market, it's time to get out of the market.

I shall leave you to your broom for a time.

TwoCatSam

[P.A]

thanks for the broom,
to chase away the cat..hehehe