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Why our systems fail?!

Started by P.A, Jul 29, 02:12 AM 2015

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P.A

Why Our Systems Fail?!


Respected Gentlemen,
Out of tens of thousand system devised,
everyone agreed that they will lose, sooner or later.

Lets debate.
U see, we lose because,
our chosen strategy, system,etc,

1]cant sustain the long streaks of losses,

2]  too little wins in the smack of losing streaks!

But seems that people avoid discussing this topic...


I always ponder this question, and read many quotes,
about why we lose in gambling , though we thought we have a sturdy system.

Below a few quotes from respected members, of various forums.

Please add yours or that u think worth to add in, and we may debate to seek the answer.

=========================
below are some quotes I think related to why we lose at the casino...
please add yours ...
and see whether could focus toward an agreeable solution, to win ...


=========================
Let me save you a lot of time.  No matter how low you get the ratio between wins and losses to reach a new profit, it's not enough.  You can get pretty deep in the hole between some hits on a [bet] and even further when you need more than a few hits close together to pull out.
quote by GLC.
==========================

"In short, instead of counting your profit, try to identify and understand what is the worst spin sequence that can ruin your system. This is much more useful information." 
quote by KAV
=============================
we need to focus on essential betting events as opposed to just spins in order to demonstrate the integrity of a system. 
quote by Reyth
======================
The number of spins doesn't really matter if they are not related to the "betting opportunities" of the system. It is the number of times that would call for betting that counts. In other words it is the number of triggers that has to be  taken into consideration, rather than pure spins.
quote by Palestis
=====================================

"The only flaw in all progressions devised so far, is one: They are meant for one type of variance only and they ignore the impact of house edge and variance in the long run."
"Wins and losses may cluster in any manner. In a random game, it is beyond your control so be prepared to face them".
"...that is the one and only trouble in a game of chance. Wins and losses may cluster in any manner. In a random game, it is beyond your control so be prepared to face them." 
quote by Albalaha.
============================
The FLAW of every well-known bet-selection, and progression,
is they cant withstand the ASSAULT of losing streaks,
or too little win, in between the streak.

"..we cant predict what will happen,
and cant control what will happen,

Thus we need to expect firsthand,
what will happen, and prepare to handle them,
when they happen.

But HOW to handle them , is the million dollar question".
quote by P.A

===========================
"The whole point is to find a way to control your losses. If you do that the wins will take control of themselves".
"Probability, HE, and variance don't 'strike'. They aren't sitting around the corner waiting to pounce on you, how silly. You don't understand the game at all. Probability IS the game of roulette. The house edge applies to every single bet you make. Variance is the natural up and down and in and out of any betting system. These things are not your enemy, they are just the game playing out like it's supposed to. Your job is to find a bet selection that smoothly plays the ins and outs and lets you win more than you lose. Looking at past results is one way to do this. Figure out what they're telling you".
quote by Ekaps
=====================

please post yours here...
=================================

Tamino

No losing streaks here. I know how to win and keeping losses to a minimum. You  muat LEARN jow  to  win.


Tamino

MrJ

Yep, I put my A+ method on "pause" during the START of a bad number run and pick it back up at a pre-chosen time.

Ken
Watch us big doggs, the MEN, play at a REAL casino, on a REAL table. All we ask is that you stay out of our way. The rest? Bots, airball, RNG...that's more for the Kitty Kat Klub. Its the big doggs and the kittens!! Winning is not an event, it's a process and it takes YEARS and YEARS to master > link:://:.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/2014127/rs_560x415-140227131132-1024.bulldog-kittens3.jpg... To be great, you have to be willing to be mocked, hated and misunderstood.

MrJ

P.A >> In regards to your points, 1 & 2.......why not FIX the problem instead of simply throwing your hands in the air and saying OH WELL.

Ken
Watch us big doggs, the MEN, play at a REAL casino, on a REAL table. All we ask is that you stay out of our way. The rest? Bots, airball, RNG...that's more for the Kitty Kat Klub. Its the big doggs and the kittens!! Winning is not an event, it's a process and it takes YEARS and YEARS to master > link:://:.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/2014127/rs_560x415-140227131132-1024.bulldog-kittens3.jpg... To be great, you have to be willing to be mocked, hated and misunderstood.

rouletteKEY

I'm doing ok

most people (including me a long time ago) lose because they don't have proper stop losses...they chase...they break away from whatever it is they had configured as their personal holy grail...and the biggest one I believe...they are undercapitalized which can be read a few ways...

undercapitalized can be that people play too big of a unit for their bankroll...they dont split their total bank into playable session banks...etc etc

when I have lost recently (last 5 years or so) it is generally a mental breakdown where I just get bored and decide to play like a rec player instead of sticking to my plan...and sometimes you need to play for fun...just don't do it with alot of money

there are alot of reasons systems fail...but most are not having enough money...chasing losses and just plain old greed sometimes and then not knowing when to quit when up or down


thats my abbreviated take

MrJ

 A method that does "alright" but has a couple of bumps in the road, is usually (not always) fixable...imo.

Ken
Watch us big doggs, the MEN, play at a REAL casino, on a REAL table. All we ask is that you stay out of our way. The rest? Bots, airball, RNG...that's more for the Kitty Kat Klub. Its the big doggs and the kittens!! Winning is not an event, it's a process and it takes YEARS and YEARS to master > link:://:.eonline.com/eol_images/Entire_Site/2014127/rs_560x415-140227131132-1024.bulldog-kittens3.jpg... To be great, you have to be willing to be mocked, hated and misunderstood.

P.A

Quote from: MrJ on Jul 29, 09:25 AM 2015
P.A >> In regards to your points, 1 & 2.......why not FIX the problem instead of simply throwing your hands in the air and saying OH WELL.

Ken
Hi Ken,
I think these analogy will fix the problem of 1&2.


When we were little kid, we were taught to look left and right before we cross the BUSY road. and we still alive today.

Every year, in the world,
tens of cars, trucks, motorbikes, were hit by train in the wilderness, when they try to cross the railroad, thinking, "oh , the train only zoom by, once a day!

Steve

PA, add this to list:

---------------------------------------------

Almost every system fails because they do not increase the accuracy of predictions.

On every spin, the payout is unfair. Like if you bet on a single number and win, you are paid back your wagered unit, plus 35 units. This an unfair payout. If it was fair, you would get back your wagered unit, plus 36 units. So even when you win, you still lose because the payout is unfair. That's what the "house edge" is.

Most systems attempt to use progression, like "if you lose, double your bet". This isn't "covering losses". All it is doing is changing the amount you risk on a completely different spin. With the approach used by most systems, there is absolutely no connection between one spin and another. So betting progression does nothing but change the amount you risk on the next spin. "Covering losses" is an illusion (unless you are first increasing the accuracy of predictions). Most systems use fancy roundabout formulas that really do nothing. They are the same approach just repackaged a different way.

The only one true way to beat roulette is to INCREASE THE ACCURACY OF PREDICTIONS. This is the only way to overcome unfair payouts (the house edge).

So how can you increase the accuracy of predictions? Voodoo? Well how can you predict where a little ball will bounce? The most reasonable is physics. And that's exactly how the people who make millions from roulette do it. They use simple physics. It is not at all complicated physics. It's actually very simple. It only gets complicated when you start modelling what happens as ball deceleration rates change, or modelling ball bounce on different rotor speeds.

See link:://:.roulettephysics.com/how-to-win-at-roulette/ which explains in plain language how roulette can and cannot be beaten, and why. Once you understand it, you wont waste time with the old approaches again because you'll understand WHY they don't work.

---------------------------------------------

I've said the same thing many times, and almost nobody listens. I'm not trying to convince people because its how "I" do it. Our world just is how it is, and mere opinion or preference doesn't change it.

Ultimately it comes down the "The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions". The two viable approaches as I see it are:

1. Physics (not as complicated or difficult as you may think)
2. Precognition, telekinesis etc (Many experienced players believe there is something in this worth exploring)

There MAY be some other method that works. But if you are developing a system, try something NEW. Try the same thing again and again, and you shouldn't expect your results to change. Try something new, and you can expect different results.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

petespin

BAD LONG STREAKS ITS THE ANSWER , IF YOU CAN OVERCOME THIS YOU LL BE A CONSTITANT WINNER , I VE FIND A SOLUTION TO AVOID LONG BAD SEQUENCES!  :smile:

Steve

1. You will still have bad streaks even if the system has a long term advantage

2. Winning roulette is not about avoiding bad streaks. It is about having a long term advantage, and this is achieved by having "better than random" accuracy of predictions

3. Even a casino, who normally has a long term advantage, can have "bad streaks". Some days, a table may be unprofitable for them. But they'll make the loss back sooner or later.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

petespin

OK BUT IF UR E ABLE TO AVOID BAD STREAKS HOW CAN U LOSE? IF YOUR SPINS HAVE MOSTLY WINNING SPINS , MOST OF THE TIME YOU LL BE AHEAD WITHOUT ANY DOUBT , AND EVEN IF YOU USE PREDICTION CAN NOT  ALL YOUR PREDICTIONS TO BE ACCURATE , SOME WILL FAIL ISNT SO?

P.A

Quote from: petespin on Aug 03, 12:33 AM 2015
OK BUT IF UR E ABLE TO AVOID BAD STREAKS HOW CAN U LOSE? IF YOUR SPINS HAVE MOSTLY WINNING SPINS , MOST OF THE TIME YOU LL BE AHEAD WITHOUT ANY DOUBT ,
Petespin,
Almost 3weeks passed, but sadly , no one soul ask u TO AVOID BAD STREAKS !

sigh...
maybe the dont understand what u mean, and the others, just keep quiet?

GLC

Why do we have to ask Petespin to post how he has overcome long sequences of bad spins?  Look through the posts and you will see that those members who are really trying to help make a positive contribution to the other members of the forum don't require us to ask them to share something they've discovered that will help us.  They just share what they've discovered and get feedback.  It may be that it is a real advancement in our knowledge of how roulette works and someone else might be able to add something to it to make it even better.

I don't know Petespin and I'm not saying he's trying to sell people something, but usually when an important statement like that is made, it means he wants people to PM him and he tries to sell them an idea.  If what he's saying is true, then it should mean that he has the HG and can win consistently with a flat bet or almost any progression.  That's what we're looking for.  Share it with the forum so we can all benefit.

Look at Steve.  He claims to have a computer system that if used correctly, will give you an advantage in the game of roulette.  He is openly selling it to anyone who can afford it and wants to take the time to learn how to use it.  No mystery.  Just straight forward sales.

What about you Petespin?  If you have the secret you claim to have, why don't you post a YouTube video presenting your idea and sell it?  Or better yet, use it to make consistent money playing roulette and have a great life.

And PA, why haven't you asked what the secret is?  Your post looks like you're Petespin's accomplice who tries to keep the idea alive to draw people in for the sale.

If I'm wrong in my assessment, forgive me. It's just how it looks to most of us.

GLC
In my case it doesn't matter.  I'm both!

ego

 See PM GLC why Pete (Petespin) is not honest and for how much he is sale hes HG for!
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

ddarko

Quote from: ego on Aug 29, 12:46 PM 2015
See PM GLC why Pete (Petespin) is not honest and for how much he is sale hes HG for!

Is this something everyone here should know about ?

Or

At the v least a Mod or two ?

O0

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