Unhit Numbers, KTF, And Other Bad Bets

[The General]

Systems that attempt to exploit unhit numbers, such as the KTF, on live wheels are a bad idea for the following reasons:

1.  Defective wheels.  Betting on unhit numbers increases the chance that you could be betting on negatively biased numbers.  Such numbers hit less frequently than they should for physical reasons.  This means that the player could lose not just at the house edge, but at a rate that could theoretically exceed the house edge.   If anyone would like proof of such a wheels, then drop me a PM.  I would be happy to provide you with the data.
2. Numbers are never due to hit or catch up, since the number of pockets remain the same on the wheel from one spin to the next.
3.   The up as you lose progressions associated with such systems limits the player to a paltry win, since the initial bet must be so low.  The bankroll fluctuations could be larger than expected because the player is chasing their losses on potentially hazardous bets.  Mathematically an up as you lose progression makes no sense.

The better option is to bet on the numbers that have hit the most and or most recently.

1. Attempting to bet on the hottest numbers increases the chance that the player will exploit some inefficiency in the actual wheel in the forum of a bias/defect.  This is where the player can actually make money and get the edge...by exploiting inefficiencies in the wheel.
2. This slightly reduces the chance of the player betting on a negatively biased number and ever so slightly increases the chance that the player could be wagering on a biased number.  The more data the player collects before wagering, the better the odds are of getting the advantage.
3. The player should reduce the number of numbers bet down to just one and no more than ten numbers.  The more numbers the player bets on, the greater the odds are that they will be betting on a random goat or worse yet, a negatively biased number.  If only one or two of the numbers is biased, but the others are random goats, then the random numbers or negatively biased numbers may wipe out the edge of the biased numbers.  In roulette, less is more.  Bet on fewer numbers.
4. The player should wager a percentage of their bankroll at each spin, rather than running an up as you lose progression.  In the event that the player is lucky or is wagering on biased numbers, the wins will on average be much larger than the paultry wins that are achieved with an "up as you lose progression."  The player's initial bet can also be much larger, increasing the chance of a large win.
5. Ignatus has recently come up with some clever quick play methods that chase hot numbers.  Most of his hot number methods are vastly superior to the unhit number systems like the KTF.

Good luck,

The General

[denzie]

100% agree if and only if it's some bias . But those wheels .... are they still exists?  I ask coz I've been doing a looooot of tracking and after 1000-2000 spins they all come nicely in balance.   

[The General]

First off, you need to separate by spin direction.

[denzie]

First off, you need to separate by spin direction.

Ok. Can you give some more advice pls ? I'm all ears and willing to learn and listen.

[curiosone]

The Law too can help us with some ideas?

[denzie]

.

[MumboJumbo]

Thanks General ✠good one    ✰ ✰ ✰

[TurboGenius]

General - aside from the "bias wheel" part, you said exactly what I did a while ago
but most people wanted to argue.

Attempting to bet on the hottest numbers increases the chance that the player will exploit some inefficiency in the actual wheel in the forum of a bias/defect.  This is where the player can actually make money and get the edge...by exploiting inefficiencies in the wheel.

I dare to say that it doesn't even require a biased wheel. Any perfect wheel spitting out random numbers will produce numbers that hit well above 1 std and the right (cough) method will exploit this.

The more data the player collects before wagering, the better the odds are of getting the advantage.

True - but in the systems world, betting every spin without waiting can do the same thing. Aside from a defective wheel, someone playing a system should never sit out spins and record "past" data.

The player should reduce the number of numbers bet down to just one and no more than ten numbers.

Bingo ! for system players as well when using something that will work (coughs again)

The player should wager a percentage of their bankroll at each spin, rather than running an up as you lose progression.

I prefer a set-in-stone progression on the numbers that I play, up as you win style. Never "up as you lose".

===

I said in another thread that Bias wheel people and system people could both agree and end up playing the same
numbers on the table and BOTH sides can win together, but it wasn't met with much enthusiasm lol. It is however true.
Many of the things that "random" spits out can be used to the player's advantage in the same way that a bias wheel can do for the bias wheel players.
Side by side - given time - we (you and I) would be on the same numbers and both winning - but due to different paths in getting there.

[TurboGenius]

link:://:.GF/threads/cs-system.2840/

Buried back 11 pages of course.

"What we would agree on - is that the 'common sense' way to play is also the same way
that most advantage players would play - meaning - we will both end up playing the same
numbers - for different reasons but to the same end of success."

I would offer that the chart in my signature shows that the bugs have been "worked out" from the second chart on that thread (even though that was fine and acceptable to begin with)

[denzie]

I dare to say that it doesn't even require a biased wheel. Any perfect wheel spitting out random numbers will produce numbers that hit well above 1 std and the right (cough) method will exploit this.

And how would you find them ? 

[The General]

Unfortunately, one standard deviation is just a fluctuation.  A random bob.  The standard deviation of a biased number will continue to grow as the spin sample grows larger and larger.  (It won't go straight up, it will move up and down slightly, but the over all trend will be upward.)

The main point I wanted to try and make was to avoid unhit number systems and focus more on hot number or biased number methods.

[Turner]

Nice post Caleb

I lean towards Turbo in the sense that the wheel will produce numbers which hit higher than average even if "Mr Wheel balance", (renowned professor of wheel balancing) has spent 2 days balancing the wheel.

I play very much in this way you describe. Finding numbers which hit above average as I go along, and removing them as they fade.

I also play over cycles. If the tables busy, I play splits over 18 cycles. I only usually play in a dozen or a column. Cant bet everything. Cant reach everywhere on the table when its full.  I usually have 1 or 2 splits by the 3rd cycle.

I only add a chip to numbers that are hitting above average. I dont ever use neg progression.

even if its not the perfect way to play, it works for me. Its a nice relaxed way to play.

It cant be too complex for me because I do like to watch the taxi drivers building scale models of NYC on the carpet and loosing their shirt.

[Priyanka]

And how would you find them ? 

Wish we can before it hits. We can't. And there's where up as you win helps where you keep increasing the bets in the hope that you will catch that.  But it is no different from random play of hot/ warm/repeating whatever you want to call numbers.

[Priyanka]

I do like to watch the taxi drivers building scale models of NYC on the carpet and loosing their shirt.

That's a nice one.

[TurboGenius]

The main point I wanted to try and make was to avoid unhit number systems and focus more on hot number or biased number methods.

Now if people listen. lol

I lean towards Turbo in the sense that the wheel will produce numbers which hit higher than average even if "Mr Wheel balance", (renowned professor of wheel balancing) has spent 2 days balancing the wheel.

Exactly. As a matter of fact - on that same forum I tested and posted how 38 people can go into a casino and play their own specific number (american 0/00 wheel) and 13 of them will leave in profit - Flat Betting ! - after 1,000 spins !!
This is buried back on the 13th page lol.
And people will say "How do I know what number(s) are going to be the ones that will make money and what numbers won't ?"
Could it be the ones that don't show up ? The sleepers ? The "due" numbers ? No........... simple, yet so hard for people to understand.
Any system based on "not playing"/virtual spins, waiting for some "trigger", looking at "past spins" fails and always will. Same goes for changing tables, casinos, voodoo or luck, you name it.