Why do we win, and Why do we lose....

[SimonZed1]

I have stopped playing roulette for a while, but I started playing BlackJack again, and it made me think about someting I was wondering about.

Why are they sessions we win, sessions we lose and other sessions that we get even.

What I mean is, there are sessions when everything is going well, and I keep making money. I win a lot of hands. Then, the next day, I lose a lot and the dealer keep beating me... There are some days when we both win the same and I get even with the house.

Why is that? Why arent their more days when I win and the house win the same?? These three type of days seems to be equal...

Why is that?? I was wondering, is there a way to find out when is gonna be a good day and when is gonna be a bad day??

Did you ever find something like that in your playing??

Simon.

[falkor2k15]

I don't quite know the answer myself. Bayes knows the answer - but I doubt he could explain it in laymen's terms.

It seems that, although all spins and sequences have constant odds, every session is very unstable for some reason due to the way variance works, including whatever laws govern deviation, distribution and statistics. Anyone have an idiot's guide to variance? So every session looks different and every system can win and lose over different data sets. And the longer you play you will eventually lose because you get caught up in a black hole that is the Law of Large Numbers, which is almost impossible to recover from.

However, Priyanka has shown us - and is probably the first to do so in the history of Roulette - that when sets are played in short finite cycles every game becomes more stable and less affected by variance. This is how I would have expected Roulette to behave in the first place, but we are only finding out about this since Sep 2015. 

The above has less to do with the house edge, since even if we had no house edge we still wouldn't know how to come up with a system that is a consistent winner.

[denzie]

since even if we had no house edge we still wouldn't know how to come up with a system that is a consistent winner.

No? i could find one for sure !

[Tamino]

I am playing ANY system the John Patrick way .  With his exit strategies  I  am a menace in the eyes of the B & M casino dealers. They never know WHEN I spring  the cash me out  request.



No details  and sharing.

[dimsun]

Why are they sessions we win, sessions we lose and other sessions that we get even.

What I mean is, there are sessions when everything is going well, and I keep making money. I win a lot of hands. Then, the next day, I lose a lot and the dealer keep beating me... There are some days when we both win the same and I get even with the house.

Why is that? Why arent their more days when I win and the house win the same?? These three type of days seems to be equal...

Why is that?? I was wondering, is there a way to find out when is gonna be a good day and when is gonna be a bad day??

When honesty is used by all, everyone would say this happens to them.  Hard pick signal in beginning.  Hindsight.

[dimsun]

This why we lose.

Many years ago when I started with this roulette endeavor, there weren's casinos in Buenos Aires (Argentina), so I had to travel to Mar de Plata or Uruguay.

There gathered all sorts of people, but some were professional gamblers. I decided that the shortest way to live from this was to learn from them. I met many liars who claimed they were winning and winning when in reality they were wasting an inheritance or money from their parents.

Of course, I also found the professionals; and one of them, the great Nono Santelli (RIP), began to teach me many things starting from the figure of the Perfect Loser.

What is the Perfect Loser?, A fictional figure that allows by contrast to become a Perfect Winner (actually closer to that.)

How does a perfect loser behave, this is, someone who ALWAYS loses?

What is probably the only thing that causes someone to lose all his sessions?

Hint: It is considered that the casino never closes.

Answer:

Staying up to losing it all...

Obvious conclusion: you have to leave when you win.

When to go? How to know that if I win, I will not win more?

Answer:

Every negative streak starts with a losing spin.

This is the first sign, sometimes enough to leave. For example, if we play even chance with an uniform unit (flat bets), if our goal is to win one chip (or ten, is the same for that matter) if we just won two, shall we lose the next we're going with the mission accomplished and cut outright the possibility of being grabbed by a bad streak.

As my first law says you have to limit losses and not the gains, hence I do not recommend going right after just reaching the target, but, if possible, to minimize the following betting attacks and as soon as the first negative signal appears, then stop.

It is clear then that the Perfect Loser does not know what to do when he wins.

What does the perfect loser do when he loses?

Answer:

Play more, more, more and more ...

If you are in a hole the only thing you never have to do is keep digging.

If we take a shortcut then we can see that a recovery strategy should be SLOW, especially because we cannot go into despair and even it allows us to reflect on whether is it not tomorrow the day to recover...

To date:

When the perfect loser wins, stays until he loses everything.

When the perfect loser loses, he bets more and more, or loses more and more until it runs out of money or commit suicide.

What if in that betting more and more he happens to win again, recovered and is again on top?

Answer:

1 .- When he wins, plays until he loses.

2 .- When he loses bets more.

3 .- If he recoups, stays back to step 1.


How does the Perfect Loser play?

Answer:

The perfect loser aims to accelerate the times, and to accelerate his playing time, he plays as hard as possible. Do you know why? Because he wants to stop suffering, he no longer stand.

Is the PL perhaps a fool?

Answer:

No. Only an intelligent person can lose a lot at the casino.

Controversial Law if any, a fool does not usually have much money, and when he has it, it is not easily lost, he is sullen and distrustful.

Watch the big losers and you will see some very smart people, usually seen in other areas: big businessmen, professionals, merchants. Intelligent people.

The perfect losers are smart people following stupid behaviour.

And I'm not talking about being addicted to gambling, not least in its terminal phase.

The PL at the bottom feels you just cannot win the game, and there are lots of social pressure to do so.

Anyone can say that he is a multinational tobacco company executive and he will be looked at with admiration (when it is proven that the tobacco is killing stuff).

It is not hard to be rejected when we say we live from the game, although legal, although a deeper act of justice, and although we are never hurting anyone.

The PL is an intelligent person who is in a moral debate and has a terrible internal struggle. He wants to win continuously but can't bear with it as his head is full of prejudices and social conventions.

The PL feels good just beginning to play because adrenaline produces well-being, but after a while it becomes a torture and anguish begins.

In other words, we completed the PL in its first phase.

In summary:

The Perfect Loser -Stage 1

1 .- When he wins keeps playing until he loses.

2 .- When he loses plays more (because the PL cannot stand the pressure of playing. If he has the ability to lose big money it is because he is intelligent and knows what it takes to win the money; if he wins, it is socially difficult to sustain this lifestyle. He wants to lose and end his suffering, his internal struggle).

3 .- If he recoups it is to return to step 1 (Continued internal pressure rises, now increased by adrenaline).


The Perfect Loser is an intelligent person, usually successful outside the casino, that has a moral debate between winning, which he would like (but which moral rules condemn) and losing, that moral rules also condemn.

Manrique

Learn not be Perfect Loser, become winner.

[falkor2k15]

That's just unhelpful nonsense IMO. Listen more to what TurboGenius and Nickmsi were saying in the Basics Thread:
*Payout odds are lower than the odds of winning (something along those lines)
*There is always a random combination that will kill us.

Priyanka has never addressed the first point other than to say that we must increase predictability, but she had this to say about the 2nd point (in so many words):
*We must lose less when the losing combinations come about.

[dimsun]

That's just unhelpful nonsense IMO.

Then you not real life player.  Simulation not real life.

Real life player understand nonsense, experience nonsense.  RouletteGhost real life player, I sure he understand.

[The General]

This why we lose.

Learn not be Perfect Loser, become winner.

Wow, that right there is soooo deep.

[falkor2k15]

Then you not real life player.  Simulation not real life.

Real life player understand nonsense, experience nonsense.  RouletteGhost real life player, I sure he understand.

General information about when to step away from the casino isn't going to help us gain edge or develop a winning strategy. It's just a slap in the face.

[dimsun]

General information about when to step away from the casino isn't going to help us gain edge or develop a winning strategy. It's just a slap in the face.

How many time you winning then end loser?

[The General]

General information about when to step away from the casino isn't going to help us gain edge or develop a winning strategy. It's just a slap in the face.

Duh!  It's like reading your Pri nonsense.

[dimsun]

Wow, that right there is soooo deep.

Duh!  It's like reading your Pri nonsense.

This why you irrelevant.

[falkor2k15]

This is just a distraction. It's not useful information. It's like teaching somebody that to play effective tennis you need a racket and a tennis ball. A soccer ball won't do because it can't bounce high enough. OK great - thank you wise one! At least with Priyanka she gave us Cycles and VdW - far more useful tools and far more relevant. Roulette is a technical game, you know? This advice is more about when to step away from a losing game of Patball: as soon as somebody beats you with a lowcut then step away from that game immediately otherwise you will dig yourself a bigger hole that you can't get out of.

[MumboJumbo]

Because of unfair payout, keep playing BlackJack then.