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Variance

Started by denzie, Jul 02, 09:11 AM 2016

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0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

denzie

Is variance measurable? 

Just a debate I would appreciate your thoughts on .....

Most of us got some very good methods/strategies to play with. Until that variance comes to take all our profit back.
What if we could somehow measure this variance. .......
In combination with statistics. ...

As spins roll off our predictions get better

winkel

Quote from: denzie on Jul 02, 09:11 AM 2016
Is variance measurable? 
...
In combination with statistics. ...

Yes!
There is always a game

denzie

Hi Winkel,

Well that would be my answer too. There are limits to certain events. And statistics of let's say a few million spins can't be ignored.

Now how to use these is the big question

As spins roll off our predictions get better

winkel

Quote from: denzie on Jul 02, 09:30 AM 2016
...
And statistics of let's say a few million spins can't be ignored.

Now how to use these is the big question

The answer to this ... you claimed doesn´t work!
There is always a game

denzie

Also why all online casino's kick you out the session if we don't place bets? They don't like we are waiting for something? 

All things like that makes people think. All the info they provide is not because they care and wanna help us. It's because they know how easily the human brain can be fooled. So better to look for things they do that doesn't "help" us...
As spins roll off our predictions get better

denzie

Quote from: winkel on Jul 02, 09:32 AM 2016
The answer to this ... you claimed doesn´t work!

For me the only thing that works is patience. If I sit down and start playing then variance is coming for me. If it's not today of tomorrow it will be soon. But certain events always happen. And if you wait long enough to not see them happen. .....

Not wanna yak about my thread Denzies parlay .....but I've noticed if I wait certain virtual dd....I can't make it lose. The only downside is patience and seeing many betting opportunity fly by..... but still better to not lose money
As spins roll off our predictions get better

Bayes

"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

The General

In gambling:

Variance = Luck.  Good or bad.  Whenever you see this word in gambling, replace it with luck.  Furthermore, it's not possible to side step luck by using statistics.

Over time, luck isn't what's really consuming your bankrolls, it's the house edge.  This is easily proven mathematically.
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Tamino

There are lies, there are damn lies but the worst kind of  all are STATISTICS .     Benjamin Disraeli .

ego


Yes you can measuring both statistics and variance.
This is overrepresented events contra underrepresented events for even money bets.
At left side you have the overrepresented events and above you have the underrepresnted events.



You can do you own chart using the Z-Score and you don't need any math skills to do so, i don't follow Bayes math Formulas, so i made it easy for and attach excel sheet, build your own statistical variance chart :-)
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

The General

In the random game, it's not possible to side step variance by using statistics.  Try as you might, the payout will always be short of the probability of winning within the random game.
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

denzie

So isn't there a possibility to measure events on ec , doz , straight numbers , singles etc to make the ultimate tracker ?

:o

I believe TG uses statistics too recruit. He uses that on straight numbers. The ones going for a second and third and fourth hit.
He's doing alright. At least he said so

Anyway just was thinking if it's possible to make such tracker. ...
As spins roll off our predictions get better

The General

QuoteSo isn't there a possibility to measure events on ec , doz , straight numbers , singles etc to make the ultimate tracker ?

Sure you can measure them, but it's a dumb idea.

Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Bayes

Quote from: The General on Jul 03, 01:49 PM 2016
Sure you can measure them, but it's a dumb idea.

Don't bias wheel hunters measure variance?  ;)

"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

The General

Biased wheel players are testing the fitness of the gambling device, (the wheel) and the effect of physical defects.   However the system player is using it in a vein attempt to beat the random game of roulette. 
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

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