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Birthday paradox

Started by Priyanka, Jan 11, 04:46 PM 2017

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0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

ati

Priyanka doesn't mean 18 unique in a row, just the last 18 unique numbers.

13
6
6
10
28
10
16
24

13 <-next number is 13, so a repeat happened within the last 6 unique

Priyanka

Quote from: ati on Jan 12, 03:47 PM 2017Priyanka doesn't mean 18 unique in a row, just the last 18 unique numbers.
Yup! Thanks ati
Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

maestro

say we have numbers

12
4
32
23
3
8
9
26
7
4


here is repeat on number 4...and is spin 10 so it has been checked that 7 or 8 is pick on curve i always wanted to check if there is some other stats on repeated number...the other 4 >and is second spin<....if we pull some data would we find say spins at the begining  say from spin 2 to spin 8 more likely to  contain our number..jus thinking

Law of the sixth...<when you play roulette there will always be a moron tells you that you will lose to the house edge>

maestro

and a bit of drink..
Law of the sixth...<when you play roulette there will always be a moron tells you that you will lose to the house edge>

Priyanka

Maestro - This info might help you. This is the info on if a repeat happens how likely is it to happen within the next x spins. This data is based on close to 19000 repeaters. One is proving through data, other is a simple math associated with it. As the number of spins increase, the odds of a repeat happening keeps on increasing and there is a wider array of numbers in which repeat can occur. So the odds on repeat happening with the number we started with decreases and that is what essentially translates to the information which is further proven by the data below.


Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

falkor2k15

Pri, these stats are old news. Why not just acknowledge what I said earlier rather than keep discussing this endlessly? Everyone here already knows the basic repeat number curve - but it doesn't help us progress nor understand the application of the birthday paradox.
"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

Priyanka

Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 13, 09:01 AM 2017Why not just acknowledge what I said earlier rather than keep discussing this endlessly?
what did you say earlier. If you can remind. Maestro asked for stats and I gave him.




Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 13, 09:01 AM 2017
doesn't help us progress nor understand the application of the birthday paradox.
Why do you assume I have info that can help. The whole reason I started this thread is to see if we can do some collective discussion to see if there is a way forward here. I am struggling to find a practical application.
Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

RayManZ

Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 13, 08:33 AM 2017
Maestro - This info might help you. This is the info on if a repeat happens how likely is it to happen within the next x spins. This data is based on close to 19000 repeaters. One is proving through data, other is a simple math associated with it. As the number of spins increase, the odds of a repeat happening keeps on increasing and there is a wider array of numbers in which repeat can occur. So the odds on repeat happening with the number we started with decreases and that is what essentially translates to the information which is further proven by the data below.



Hi Pri,

Are these stats based on the principle that rrbb used in his thread about positions?

So using all the 37 numbers. Only position 1 till 20 did repeat? That means 3854 times you had a number hit back 2 back?

Priyanka

Quote from: RayManZ on Jan 13, 09:57 AM 2017
So using all the 37 numbers. Only position 1 till 20 did repeat? That means 3854 times you had a number hit back 2 back?
That is correct Ray.  I tried multiple datasets and they provided more or less similar distribution. Anything above 17 has been on exceptional basis.
Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

falkor2k15

Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 13, 09:24 AM 2017
what did you say earlier. If you can remind. Maestro asked for stats and I gave him.



Why do you assume I have info that can help. The whole reason I started this thread is to see if we can do some collective discussion to see if there is a way forward here. I am struggling to find a practical application.
You said most repeats occur in the last 18 uniques; I just reminded you that this is simply related to the repeat curve stat - but you (and others) continued to confuse the situation.

Going forward you said before you had studied all non-probabilistic methods for 2 years, including additional stats based methods, which could potentially aid in a non-random strategy. You've touched on the birthday paradox before, but it was all too brief. Before we can find a practical application I think we first need to be clear on how this relates to Roulette exactly? In Roulette, what represents the birthdays and what represents the people? I would ask the same question about the theorem of friends and strangers: how to translate that based on Roulette terms? You found a comparison between Porrondo's Paradox and roulette using an example where 2 losing games makes a winning, but I don't think the dynamic decisions relating to the bankroll were applicable? The Birthday Paradox may be transferable to Roulette, but I just don't have the imagination to figure out what is what let alone find an application.

Leaving bdayp aside for now (whatever it may resemble in Roulette terms) and looking at the repeat curve (that's what this discussion has evolved into): we could track the uniques of both the standard random stream and the positions stream. Both streams would have to repeat before 25 uniques show and if they each share common numbers then that would reduce what we need to cover. So that's one idea that comes to mind.
"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

maestro

thanks for the effort,Priyanka....seems one more brick wall to me..hats off for the effort
Law of the sixth...<when you play roulette there will always be a moron tells you that you will lose to the house edge>

Priyanka

Quote from: falkor2k15 on Jan 13, 11:43 AM 2017So that's one idea that comes to mind
Thanks for that idea.  Let me do some work to see how to implement it.


Quote from: maestro on Jan 13, 02:23 PM 2017seems one more brick wall to me
He he
Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

Scarface

Quote from: Priyanka on Jan 13, 08:33 AM 2017
Maestro - This info might help you. This is the info on if a repeat happens how likely is it to happen within the next x spins. This data is based on close to 19000 repeaters. One is proving through data, other is a simple math associated with it. As the number of spins increase, the odds of a repeat happening keeps on increasing and there is a wider array of numbers in which repeat can occur. So the odds on repeat happening with the number we started with decreases and that is what essentially translates to the information which is further proven by the data below.



I know some will disagree with me here, but what about using a trigger.? Wait until 8 spins with no repeat before starting...also combine this with a parachute progression to keep the bets low to start.

Priyanka

Quote from: Scarface on Jan 13, 03:46 PM 2017I know some will disagree with me here, but what about using a trigger.? Wait until 8 spins with no repeat before starting..
Scarface. Unfortunately it doesnt help. Let me explain why. See the following spins.

23
12
1
13
24
32
35
36
2
21
3
8
9
17
15
33
14
20
14


We had a repeat after 18 spins. But the position of the repeat is 2. Waiting for a trigger doesnt help in this scenario. I wish!
Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

maestro

what if we do groups like that


1,8,15,22,29,36
2,9,16,23,30
3,10,17,24,31
4,11,18,25,32
5,12,19,26,33
6,13,20,27,34
7,14,21,28,35


so in 8 spins(if no zero group will repeat and this is 100%)  in 6 spins we get 91% repeat as whole group) so say in 4 spins we will have 20 or so numbers to choose from for repeat...that could be looked at..
Law of the sixth...<when you play roulette there will always be a moron tells you that you will lose to the house edge>

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