Birthday paradox

[nottophammer]

for those who can't see the remaining 9 non-hit

[Priyanka]

Why go to so much trouble looking for events

Notto - KTF Works. 9 non-hit wins. We all get it and admire those trots. Dont worry, we will pick the money there.

But for some it is a little more than playing 27 numbers and getting down,  and sitting endlessly to get to 9 non-hits. Some dont want to follow trots. Playing for fun as ghost would say. It is easy for me to go with friends and throw a chip on the dozen than stretch my muscles to spread bet and focus on the drink in hand, and may be have a chat with the dealer and people around.

[nottophammer]

Notto - KTF Works. 9 non-hit wins. We all get it and admire those trots. Dont worry, we will pick the money there.

See ya

[falkor2k15]

Thanks for all the ideas so far. I have been working on an idea to see whether it is even possible to overcome the repeater odds and eliminate some apples based on stats that repeat happens in the recent numbers. Will appreciate any help in sharpening this and testing it further.

So basically it goes like this. One event is a combination of two spins. The first spin takes into consideration High and Low and the second spin takes into consideration the dozens. So there are six events possible in total.

Event 1 â€" Low and Dozen 1
2 â€" Low and Dz2
3 â€" Low and Dz3
4 â€" High and Dz1
5 â€" High and Dz2
6 â€" High and Dz3

The play is going to be playing for a repeat happens. As soon as one of the events repeat, we restart. Also on a win, we go back three spins without a repeater to look for events to bet on.  A bit difficult to explain, but playing wise it goes like below.

15
32   - Event 3. Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin.
6     - Event 4. Event 3 is possible in next spin. Bet on 3rd dozen.
21 â€" Event 2. Lost -1
22 â€" Event 5. Lost. -2
22 â€" Event 5. Won. -1
18 â€" Event 5. +1
7 â€"Event 1. +1
26 â€" Event 3. 0
16 â€" Event 5. +2
29 â€" Event 3. +3
28 â€" Event 6. +2
8 â€" Event 4. 0
9 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
3 â€" Event 1. +1

Priyanka, I wanted to ask you more about how you are playing for repeats here and in general.

Above you seem to be playing for the next available repeat? If event 3 is possible "next spin" then you will play it. But is it really best practice to play for a repeat to happen on the very next spin?

With Dozen Cycles you would often play CL2:
1... bet 2+3 (uniques)
12... bet 1+2 (repeat)

With CL2 you are betting the uniques on the 1st spin; you are only playing for the actual repeat on the 2nd spin? Could it be that betting 2+3 is also playing for a different repeat other than the main CL2 event?

If you were to take the same approach above and play the "next available repeat" when using cycles then you would inevitably be playing CL1 - but of course you always ignore that; with the above idea, however, you are always betting the next available repeat on the next spin:

"Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin."

Why the contrast in playing for repeats...?

[Priyanka]

Above you seem to be playing for the next available repeat?

In this example am playing for repeats and not next available repeat.

[falkor2k15]

In this example am playing for repeats and not next available repeat.

OK thanks, so do you think it's important we choose "what repeat(s)" to play for and "what spin(s)" to bet them - the "what" and the "when"? In other words you don't plan to always catch the repeat that you are playing on the next available spin?

[Priyanka]

don't plan to always catch the repeat that you are playing on the next available spin

It is immaterial what I plan. Stats say repeat can happen anytime and targeting only the next spin is going to be very narrow window.

[falkor2k15]

It is immaterial what I plan. Stats say repeat can happen anytime and targeting only the next spin is going to be very narrow window.

But don't the stats have something to say about number repeats - that they will happen on average around spins 7-8 (see "number curve" chart) even though we will break even over the long term (or lose to the house edge) regardless of how narrow (7-8) or broad (6-9) our window? If we were to play the repeat on the next available spins, say 1-8, then wouldn't we at least catch it quicker rather than risk losing the opportunity through virtual spins?

Going back to cycles you appear to only play for the dozen to repeat on spin 2 or 3:
CL1 CL2 CL3

Instead of playing for the dozen to repeat on spin 1 you appear to be playing the sleepers instead? If the repeat can happen anytime why target only spins 2-3? Are you using the repeat curve stats to aid you? With EC > Dozen shouldn't we also at least leave out the first spin in our broad attack window? Would that reduce apples?

You advised never to bet next spin - only next event (repeat). Is playing for 2 repeats to happen in advance also essential? In other words: are we perhaps wasting our time just targeting 1 repeat at a time?

[Priyanka]

that they will happen on average around spins 7-8

Look at the stats I earlier posted in this thread which you dismissed as old story. May be you will have some answers for the questions you are asking or may be not.

If we were to play the repeat on the next available spins, say 1-8, then wouldn't we at least catch it quicker rather than risk losing the opportunity through virtual spins?

Yes.

Going back to cycles you appear to only play for the dozen to repeat on spin 2 or 3:

Falkor - lets not reopen random thoughts topic. I said no more hinting and no more clues and it is fair to write and explain what I claim. Hope you will respect that and not keep digging things that am not prepared to answer from that thread. Also, this will be the 100th time I will be saying, every video posted there is to explain a concept and not necessarily right or wrong way of playing things.

You advised never to bet next spin - only next event (repeat).

I dont understand the question here. If you can rephrase it may be i will be able to understand and answer this question.

[falkor2k15]

Sorry Pri - I was looking at this topic through a Non-Random lens... since it's about playing for repeats I never placed it into a separate pigeonhole. Concepts are nothing without context.

What does BP mean I wonder...?
"Now coming back to parallel universes, as drazen has asked about it, the whole thing of birthday paradox(problem) works because of these parallel universes. A person on its own will have a lesser probability of finding a birthday match as opposed to a group finding its match as there are more number of pairs involved."

I think we can remove the mask from Mr. Birthday - he represents the main event: the repeat.
As for who represents the Group (Mr. and Mrs.) finding the same repeat... that is related to my question which needs re-phrasing - perhaps with the word "parallel".

Look at the stats I earlier posted in this thread which you dismissed as old story. May be you will have some answers for the questions you are asking or may be not.

I guess looking back at old uniques helps as they have more chance than usual for a repeat.

Removing the mask...

[praline]

Nice topic

[falkor2k15]

Nice topic

And you're a nice guy, Praline! I like you!! 

[praline]

Thanks for all the ideas so far. I have been working on an idea to see whether it is even possible to overcome the repeater odds and eliminate some apples based on stats that repeat happens in the recent numbers. Will appreciate any help in sharpening this and testing it further.

So basically it goes like this. One event is a combination of two spins. The first spin takes into consideration High and Low and the second spin takes into consideration the dozens. So there are six events possible in total.

Event 1 â€" Low and Dozen 1
2 â€" Low and Dz2
3 â€" Low and Dz3
4 â€" High and Dz1
5 â€" High and Dz2
6 â€" High and Dz3

The play is going to be playing for a repeat happens. As soon as one of the events repeat, we restart. Also on a win, we go back three spins without a repeater to look for events to bet on.  A bit difficult to explain, but playing wise it goes like below.

15
32   - Event 3. Event 3 cannot occur in the next spin. So no bet on next spin.
6     - Event 4. Event 3 is possible in next spin. Bet on 3rd dozen.
21 â€" Event 2. Lost -1
22 â€" Event 5. Lost. -2
22 â€" Event 5. Won. -1
18 â€" Event 5. +1
7 â€"Event 1. +1
26 â€" Event 3. 0
16 â€" Event 5. +2
29 â€" Event 3. +3
28 â€" Event 6. +2
8 â€" Event 4. 0
9 â€" Event 1. -1
14 â€" Event 2. -2
11 â€" Event 1. -1
3 â€" Event 1. +1

What if instead of dozens we will bet on numbers from our dozen that are in last 18 uniques?

[falkor2k15]

That's a very interesting idea, praline! Never thought of that before... I have considered parachuting to numbers and I've also considered looking at pre-existing uniques when parachuting - just not in terms of stitching dozens to numbers in that fashion.

[falkor2k15]

Could dual dependency exist here in terms of the next dozen repeat and next CL repeat happening at the same time?