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new ways of thinking

Started by XXVV, Sep 16, 08:57 PM 2011

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0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Gizmotron

XXVV, it's nice to see someone else passing on the advice of John Patrick. It's good advice.

I too think it's a great technique to attack situations where a short streak gives large returns from a positive progression .  My favorite is 6 single doz / col in a row. They don't have to be placed consecutive to reach that goal.
I am the living proof that Roulette can be beat every time I set out to beat it.

amk

XXVV,

I felt this new thread would add to new ways of thinking as it ties in with subject matter being discussed........

link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=8395.msg74695#new

Look forward to your next post.


XXVV

Recent article on Daniel Kahneman and his new book in the NZ Listener magazine written by an expat kiwi working at Oxford. This brilliant psychologist has been referred to earlier in the thread.
We need to wake up to the errors we frequently make in our thinking.

:.listener.co.nz
The latest issue may not yet show on the website because I bought an early edition. Recommend this as a brilliant checklist on the flaws on our thinking and biases.

Regarding judgment of issues and decisions in professional roulette play, this is a very important article and may warn us and possibly help. We must be aware of our ways of thinking and this has been touched on brilliantly by Nasim Taleb and John Patrick.

We must not be too hard on ourselves because we are delicate instruments. remember it may take hundreds if not thousands of events and degrees of failure before we hit the target and even then we have off days. Look at the great athletes and great teams in sport.
Just so it is relative and we have to understand the implications of randomness further. We need to be firm but fair with ourselves, always lifting our game, and chuckle at the occasional slip.
Best XXVV

XXVV

Here are some of the Biases that drive us and I give credit to Daniel Kahneman and David Hall.
The halo effect
The anchoring effect
The availability heuristic
The affect heuristic
Base-rate neglect
Competition neglect
Framing effects
Hindsight bias ( big in roulette)
The illusion of skill
The illusion of validity
The planning fallacy
Loss aversion
Narrative fallacy
Priming effects
Representativeness bias
Substitution
The sunk-cost fallacy
WYSIATI ( what you see is all there is)

Also will refer again to N. Taleb and his references to Karl Popper and Science.
Food for thought
XXVV

namdlotahtetahi

Hello Everyone!!I'm just new here!Hope to learn more wiser tactics here!I just read this whole thread and I'm very please. I'm gonna apply this!That's for sure!

XXVV

As it has been my approach to scatter various ideas around the Forum in obscure places in order to 'overlap' ideas both intentionally and also randomly ( serendipity), but also to screen out the time wasters, or those weakly motivated, please be advised that I have summarised current thinking and progress back on the CommonSense thread where I started (by default) over 18 months ago.
A visit may be to your advantage.
That takes nothing away from the excellent work of Mr CommonSense himself.

By the way, if you would like to contact me personally and avoid the more public route of the Forum PM, then email me on
palladioxxvv@yahoo.com

There is in the title the combination of influences which inspire me.
Best XXVV
Best XXVV

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