Hi everyone. I've been testing the water on various sports betting ideas and scenarios. I know house edge is also in there (for example on an event that the bookies think it has 50% chance of happening they'll give you odds of 1.87-1.95 etc. That's not the point for now since House edge exists in roulette obviously as well)
I would like to hear what others have to say about a comparison between these 2.
In a roulette table, as we all know, we are given odds of 3 for a dozen/column.
These odds are given because Roulette is supposed to be random and all outcomes (numbers) are supposed to have the same probability thus making these mathematically correct odds.
In sports, there are scenarios for example in basketball that the player has to guess the final score within a range of 10 points.
In these situations, odds are not the same for all ranges since not all scores are equally possible. In this scenario, the MOST likely of all ranges have sometimes odds of 3 like in the attached image. (didn't know how to upload the image IN the post sorry)
My question is, do you believe a player is more likely to get this odds of 3 in sports betting rather than odds of 3 in roulette? (since this is the MOST likely of all events-score ranges to happen in comparison to the EQUALLY same probability for any of the 3 dozens or column to spin.) Is this also making sports a better place to bet on and a looong losing streak more unlikely to happen than in roulette on same odds?
TL/DR: To sum up, do you believe it is more likely to get correct an odd of 3 in sports betting where this event is more likely than others, than to get an odd of 3 in roulette where all dozens have the same 1/3 chance of hitting? Does that make winning in sports bit easier and long losing streaks harder/rarer to occur?
I think overall you'll get slightly worse odds in sports betting.
For example on dozens the correct odds at Roulette are 2.083 to 1. The casino gives you 2 to 1. Sports booking takes 5 to 10% margin would give you like 1.85, 1.9, 1.95 to 1.
But just occasionally if you shop around for odds you may be able to get 2.1 or 2.2 to 1. So then you have a small advantage which you can't get at Roulette as it's always 2:1.
What are the chances of getting decent odds? You have to do a lot of research and looking around or maybe get some inside information. It's not easy.
I know that if you take advantage of offers, do research, bet big and start winning consistently, bookies can limit your account to small bets, so it's not worth your while. Like casinos, they don't tolerate advantage based play.
All the real professionals I've met during the years I was involved in horse racing had one thing in common.
None of them were looking for the winner of the race they would all be looking to back horses who were overpriced.
Quote from: Let Me Win on Apr 22, 04:12 AM 2019None of them were looking for the winner of the race they would all be looking to back horses who were overpriced.
Yeah, that's the value bets that you believe odds are better than what they should be. That's another story.
So you guys believe it's the same possible to run on long steaks and same chance to win/lose in the example I give in the first post about equal random events and more likely to happen events
I use sports betting service with proven edge and positive expectation.
You make money that way, but you don't get rich quick.
Cheers
This is a 100% free, transparent and profitable horse racing tipster I followed for years.
:.jerrysbestbets.com
Quote from: ego on Apr 22, 09:56 AM 2019
I use sports betting service with proven edge and positive expectation.
You make money that way, but you don't get rich quick.
Cheers
I had some friends who made a living from it. If you go it alone a lot of study needed, and if you want to make a living, due to small edge, you have to place large bets. Also make sure your variance is sufficiently low, on the type of action you go for.
Placing bets of thousands of pounds or Euro is not for the faint hearted.
Maybe service is a better idea. But do they charge a fixed fee or commission on winnings? I think the latter would be better, but it reduces the edge.
Quote from: ego on Apr 22, 09:56 AM 2019I use sports betting service with proven edge and positive expectation.
You make money that way, but you don't get rich quick.
That's not what the post started out about but if you want to share it here or on DM feel free. On the main topic I guess odds 3 whether are on Roulette or sports betting will have the same ratio of losing streaks etc
If you have the money and the time to get the bets on quickly before the odds get cut this is the daddy of tipping services with many years of profit all independently recorded.
:.equineinvestments.co.uk
Will add something later ....
Quote from: BellagioOwner on Apr 21, 07:13 PM 2019
My question is, do you believe a player is more likely to get this odds of 3 in sports betting rather than odds of 3 in roulette? (since this is the MOST likely of all events-score ranges to happen in comparison to the EQUALLY same probability for any of the 3 dozens or column to spin.) Is this also making sports a better place to bet on and a looong losing streak more unlikely to happen than in roulette on same odds?
I asked myself that a few years ago as well. Then I contacted one guy, who is working for a bookmaker company, whose job is to make odds for them. We became friends and even had together one project ongoing for a few months. Anyway, during that time I learned a lot about how they work.
Probably you will be surprised but 90% of those people who are making odds for sports betting, don’t bet at all! Do you know why? Their job is just to calculate odds for every game and come as close as they can to actual or realistic probability for every event in time, and they are so damn good at it. They are using a vast number of all possible statistical factors monitored in a real-time, crunched with complex algorithms which are top secret. That is the reason why sports betting is not so easy to beat longterm as well. I know for a fact that longterm professionals with just a few percents of an edge are considered as good ones.
QuoteDoes that make winning in sports bit easier and long losing streaks harder/rarer to occur?
The easiest way I can think of to spot this is for example to take NBA basketball. There is a website: :.covers.com where you can take any team and see their past results from 1990. up today. You can see opening Asian handicap lines for every match and its result (won or lost) Same with overs/unders. In other words, they are EC bets, and you can observe winning and losing streaks through the season and then compare that to EC bets in roulette. You will find that those streaks, unfortunately, might be quite nasty as in roulette, so that means that bookies are coming so close to equal odds longterm, and offered bets are so close to random bets, right?
If you find extreme losing or winning streaks in one season, you might notice what happens in the next session. Most of the time deviation will be at least less strong in the same way. Regression toward the means, right?
Is it a good idea, to look extremes from the previous season and bet opposite/same for this season, ridding less strong deviations most of the time? It's hard to tell, I ll everyone to study that and make a decision. That phenomenon is certainly not a fallacy, but how to exploit it, is? Hah, that's a tricky one, for sure!
Good luck
Drazen
Thanks Drazen! Nice post and very nice website (covers.com) :thumbsup:
Quote from: ego on Apr 22, 01:00 PM 2019Will add something later ....
If you could Ego post or DM if you don't feel like public, would be great any of the ways. This is not what the post started out about but I'd check it out to see what it has to offer
A few years ago I bought a software for Sport arbitrage ! Unfortunately It’s not that easy, you need lots of money spread in hundreds of accounts and the bookies sometimes have a maximum for any bet
I've certainly read that they are quite protective of their edge. If anyone starts systematically taking advantage of offers, or consistently winning with large bets, selecting what turn out to be favourable odds, then they will ban or limit accounts
Quote from: BellagioOwner on Apr 22, 06:33 PM 2019
Thanks Drazen! Nice post and very nice website (covers.com) :thumbsup:
If you could Ego post or DM if you don't feel like public, would be great any of the ways. This is not what the post started out about but I'd check it out to see what it has to offer
Hello, i have been using Marketbeaters - link:s://:.marketbeaters.se/ - and when you download the app to your mobile phone you can see the true price list and each tipsters ROI (same as an edge).
Yes, I made money using them, been testing package solution and one single tipster.
You need to be aware that you are on stand by from morning to late night each and every day.
When your mobile phone sound you need to check the tips and sometimes you need to place a bet within a minute.
Some games are live.
You need to download the game company's apps to your mobile phone and be ready to place bets on your way to work, during lunch time, on the subway or bus, in the food store, before you go to sleep when you are on the toilet.
First, I feel it was very stressful using the ultimate package all inclusive, but you get used to it.
When I been using one tipster only I put my money on BB and Daniel who has great ROI (edge)
They have around 6000 placed bets with 107 ROI altogether.
Add them to Twitter or email and ask about details, how much you need as bankroll and what gaming companies you can expect to use.
I have been playing with 2000 Euro and 1000 Euro bankrolls at different times where you flat betting 20 or 10 Euro for each bet.
This is for the ones who want to make money without learning how to play and place bets.
Now if you want to learn how to play and learn a method to tackle sports I would recommend John Patrick.
Buy the sports betting book and sports betting service.
He sometimes offering you one-half year for free to get a feel for the whole concept.
You get two phone numbers to call to check general information and picks with explanations.
For me is a time gap so I need to make my phone calls during a specific time as he is based in another part of the world.
You can also follow free daily picks on the forum board and grasp the general mentality around he's betting principals.
At the moment the John Patricks site is down and having issues will soon be fixed.
You can pm me and I will give you his email if you are interested to use the sports betting service.
Both these options make you money and will keep you occupated each and every day.
One more thing I install a mobile phone recorder, so I call the sports betting service once and record the phone call.
Then if something is not clear or I need to listen several times to understand I can do so without paying extra money for phone calls abroad.
The last one is gaming-guru or something similar, lost the link and have to go to Twitter to find it again.
I follow their action for a period of time and the results are very good.
And the bankroll requirement is pretty low 500 Euro and they have a nice betting chart similar to Kelly staking plan where you place different values on different games depending on the likelihood of winning. This concept offering a higher return on investment then flat betting or at least a quicker way to see profits and growth into your bankroll, but swings can be more present, that is how I reflect and understand the concept.
They have a monthly fee.
The issues I had in the past and don't know if they fix it yet, I could not get the auto sms and email function to work.
But one solution is to check there site morning, lunch, dinner, evening times for new picks.
A lot of attention and daily routine and the reason why I did not use their service.
Cheers
I find the link to the last one link:s://game-gurus.com/
This is the three is my favorites.
You need to make your own conclusions.
Cheers
Quote from: ego on May 28, 11:21 AM 2019
Hello, i have been using Marketbeaters - link:s://:.marketbeaters.se/ - and when you download the app to your mobile phone you can see the true price list and each tipsters ROI (same as an edge).
Yes, I made money using them, been testing package solution and one single tipster.
You need to be aware that you are on stand by from morning to late night each and every day.
When your mobile phone sound you need to check the tips and sometimes you need to place a bet within a minute.
Some games are live.
You need to download the game company's apps to your mobile phone and be ready to place bets on your way to work, during lunch time, on the subway or bus, in the food store, before you go to sleep when you are on the toilet.
First, I feel it was very stressful using the ultimate package all inclusive, but you get used to it.
When I been using one tipster only I put my money on BB and Daniel who has great ROI (edge)
They have around 6000 placed bets with 107 ROI altogether.
Add them to Twitter or email and ask about details, how much you need as bankroll and what gaming companies you can expect to use.
I have been playing with 2000 Euro and 1000 Euro bankrolls at different times where you flat betting 20 or 10 Euro for each bet.
This is for the ones who want to make money without learning how to play and place bets.
Now if you want to learn how to play and learn a method to tackle sports I would recommend John Patrick.
Buy the sports betting book and sports betting service.
He sometimes offering you one-half year for free to get a feel for the whole concept.
You get two phone numbers to call to check general information and picks with explanations.
For me is a time gap so I need to make my phone calls during a specific time as he is based in another part of the world.
You can also follow free daily picks on the forum board and grasp the general mentality around he's betting principals.
At the moment the John Patricks site is down and having issues will soon be fixed.
You can pm me and I will give you his email if you are interested to use the sports betting service.
Both these options make you money and will keep you occupated each and every day.
One more thing I install a mobile phone recorder, so I call the sports betting service once and record the phone call.
Then if something is not clear or I need to listen several times to understand I can do so without paying extra money for phone calls abroad.
The last one is gaming-guru or something similar, lost the link and have to go to Twitter to find it again.
I follow their action for a period of time and the results are very good.
And the bankroll requirement is pretty low 500 Euro and they have a nice betting chart similar to Kelly staking plan where you place different values on different games depending on the likelihood of winning. This concept offering a higher return on investment then flat betting or at least a quicker way to see profits and growth into your bankroll, but swings can be more present, that is how I reflect and understand the concept.
They have a monthly fee.
The issues I had in the past and don't know if they fix it yet, I could not get the auto sms and email function to work.
But one solution is to check there site morning, lunch, dinner, evening times for new picks.
A lot of attention and daily routine and the reason why I did not use their service.
Cheers
This is a question for Firefox or anyone else who feel to comment.
I took a calculated statistical risk with a small bankroll.
Allow me to explain:
I use a Tipster with 112% ROI and his name is Daniel from Market beaters.
Now the recommendation is to bet 1% of your bankroll.
That is 10 Euro flat betting with 1000 Euro bankroll.
Now one gambler has simulated what is the worst that can happen flat betting with 100 placed bets samples 600 times.
That is 60.000 placed bets.
Theoretical the worst that can happen is to lose 100 placed bets during one session with 100 placed bets flat betting.
The actual results after 60.000 placed bets or 600 x 100 placed bets sessions was minus 34 units.
I risk 500 Euro with a base bet with 10 Euro flat betting to build a sports betting bankroll.
That is 2% of the bankroll.
I reckon that the likelihood that I will get a drawdown with minus 34 units is very small as it happens once during 60.000 placed bets.
And the average drawdown is minus eight units during 100 placed bets sessions flat betting.
I do this to quicker reach 2000 Euro that is my goal to have as conservative sports betting bankroll.
When I reach that goal I will not take the same risk.
This means I am from 500 Euro to 1000 Euro betting 10 Euro flat betting stakes.
Risk 50 units with 2% of the bankroll.
When I reach 1000 Euro I will flat betting 20 Euro to reach 1500 Euro and then maybe continue flat betting with 30 Euro until i reach 2000 Euro.
Then I will bet 1% of bankroll and increase the number of Tipsters - thinking about BB at Market beaters with 106% ROI.
I reckon one Tipster give smaller swings with a variance that also is included in this calculation.
This is what I call risk management.
Cheers
Quote from: ego on Jun 03, 10:22 AM 2019This is a question for Firefox or anyone else who feel to comment.
I read your post and couldn't find any question. What is the question?
He's presumably asking if it's a reasonable strategy.
At a return of 12%, if they are roughly even chance bets, Half Kelly betting suggest betting a little more, about 5% of bankroll per bet. (2p-1)
At a return of 6%, Half Kelly betting suggests betting 2.5% of bankroll per bet.
I say half Kelly because as it is a new venture, one is not totally confident of the edge, but assume we have some edge, otherwise we wouldn't be betting.
But if the chance is not even, you could be betting less than that. Impossible to know without knowing the odds offered but sports betting is often around even chances if there are two teams compering.
I think 2% of bankroll is a good shot but very conservative on the 112% ROI if that figure is true. That seems a huge figure to me and very difficult to achieve. It may be best to start with 2% anyway until more confident of the figure.
Thanks, Firefox you fully understand my thoughts.
The ROI is based upon over 7000 placed games.
And I tell you what I did, I buy one more Tipster with 109.8 ROI and play both on separate sport betting books/sites.
Cheers
Do you think you can achieve a solid edge in sport betting in case you always bet on the team which has the lowest quote ?
No, you can not win in the long term or have an edge playing 2.0 and lower.
Yesterday I won 6.00 odds with 10 Euro stake, some days I win 1.80 or 2.20 or 4.00 - there are different odds.
Always place 10 Euro flat betting, no matter odds.
I get many live games where the current situation requires me to place bets within seconds.
Today I place a 34.00 odds and just seconds after I place this live game the odds drop to 17.00 and after that to 4.00.
This was because of the changing situation in the game.
Had I been just 15 seconds later placing the bet I would have been playing 17.00 odds.
Now that particular game did not win, but I have been placing odds that high in the past winning over 100 Euro playing one single live game.
This is not the first time I use this Service.
You have to understand that being alert from 9 a clock in the morning to 11 a clock before midnight is stressful.
Do that for six straight months takes discipline
And upon that, I call John Patrick's service one hour before midnight to get my daily American sports picks.
That process takes around one hour and after that, I can go to sleep at midnight.
Their requires work to make money and dedication and discipline.
That is how my daily routine looks like besides my ordinary work.
Cheers
You are right, advantage play takes a lot of study and discipline. There is no easy money out there. Even if you are subscribing to good tips they may be last minute to take advantage of momentary good odds. So it is a profession.
I'm still surprised at a 12% edge by Daniel. Is suspect he may be taking on a few unusual but more risky bets to achieve that. He could get the figure but with a higher SD, so plays well to be conservative on his tips.
Most players don't have the right mindset for AP - not even for roulette computers, and they are as easy as it gets. Most players don't understand the concept of edge. They want and expect a system that can be instantly applied, requires no work, never loses, and makes millions. Anything less than that is no good to them.
You can do well even with a 1% edge. But there are other factors like avoiding detection, frequency of spins etc that generally make 1% not worth the time. We'd only bother with such a small edge if it was stable, and on something like an auto wheel so we could sit there for hours without any problems.
Quote from: ego on Jun 05, 03:55 PM 2019No, you can not win in the long term or have an edge playing 2.0 and lower.
It's not the odds which matter, but the value in relation to the odds. Do you use the betting exchanges? You can do quite well laying in soccer matches with odds at 2.0 or below (obviously, this isn't a "blanket" bet - some research is required). And the big advantage of using the exchanges versus the bookies is that you won't get your account closed if you win too much.
I'm not a fan of tipsters myself, although I recognize that there are some genuine ones around. The vast majority are worthless.
Yes, you are right - the handicappers find value with each and every lay - that is called value-betting.
Cheers
Finding a good tipster is a bit like trying to find a black cat in a coal cellar. I'm a big fan of Joe Buchdahl, who has a great site full of free data for anyone who wants to develop soccer betting systems.
link:s://:.football-data.co.uk/data.php
He's also written some very good books on betting, including one titled How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar, which tells you how to evaluate a tipster's results using statistical techniques, and in fact is also very useful for checking your own systems. There's a good review of it here :
link:://:.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2014/10/how-to-find-black-cat-in-coal-cellar.html
And no, I'm not Joe Buchdahl! ;D
Thanks, Joe - that is useful information - I will read that today.
I learn from John Patrick and use the Service and his book as a reference guide.
And Market-beaters.
Now, what is the true expectation - return on investment.
I comparing with the stock market and interest on the bank account.
A low-risk and long term investment portfolio give you around 10% in return on investment - but then is 30% taxes upon that.
Let's take 500 Euro investment - your return after one year is 50 Euro minus 30% tax 15 Euro - Total profit 35 Euro
A bank account gives 3% or lower interest for one-year savings, so I will skip that comparison as it would be worthless.
Now Market beaters take 15 Euro a mount if you buy a half year package with one Tipster.
That is 89 Euro in the fee.
They place around 30 to 40 placed bets a month and during the one-half year, you get around 200 or more placed bets.
The expectation is 268 Euro in return on an investment minus 89 Euro fee - give you a total tax-free 178 Euro.
Stock-market return on investment 35 Euro with 500 Euro investment.
Market beaters return on investment 178 Euro with 500 Euro investment.
Now I play a total of 20 Euro flat betting using two Tipsters and my return on investment is 537 Euro.
But I pay monthly and then the fee is cost a little more 19 Euro that is around 120 Euro for each tipster for one-half year.
Fee 240 Euro minus 537 Euro give me a total of 287 Euro as pure winnings.
This is not getting rich quick but for sure a better investment than the stock market.
And the amount of work to be involved make you think twice if it's worth it.
Comments on that?
Cheers
Just have to mention that the sport's return on investment is based upon half year and stock market one year.
So the sports give you a double return on investment than the numbers I mention.
Note - risk management.
Escalating staking plan - assume you always play 2% of bankroll - then the return on investment will become much higher.
For example 500 Euro with 10 Euro flat betting - 2%.
/50 Euro with 15 Euro flat betting - 2%
1000 Euro with 20 Euro flat betting - 2%
Cheers
I don't understand the following - on Markeatbeaters home site they say you can expect 268 Euro after 200 placed bets.
And I check tipster Inside (109% ROI) last month to see how many picks he made, around 35 placed bets.
Then I check Daniels (112% ROI) over 60 placed bets last month - many live games ...
Now i have been active for nine days and I am up 220 Euro playing 10 Euro flat betting and 2% of the bankroll.
I assume there will be up and downs, but at the moment we are moving upwards.
Today I won several bets and lost very little, two of them was winning at 4.75 and 5.00 odds.
Cheers
Firefox mention he knows people making a living on Sports Betting Service.
I say why not - let other experts work for you and pay a fee and get a return on investment that beats any other market.
Now I am conservative - so I will not rush into things - but I find two more sites offering several handicappers/tipsters and they show statistics and ROI for each one.
Yes, I will invest more money into this.
Cheers
Ego, why do you prefer football tipsters over horse tipsters? I mean there are well known horse tipping agencies as well independent tipsters with better ROI than their football counterpants in general.
Also i had a quick glance at marketbeaters website and their subscription plans (350 â,¬ for 2 months tips) seemed to me ridiculous overpriced. At same price you hire a top horse tipster for a whole year. How you are under the impression they have so much value to consider them as an investment, unless you know something we dont about them.
Hello, I am not sure about the price, I pay 19 Euro a month for one Tipster and if I buy six months I only play 15 Euro.
Been playing three weeks and started with 500 Euro and now I am up 900 Euro, that is 400 Euro winnings with 19 Euro fee.
That is a great return on investment.
And yes you are correct, I find two sites that are valid and provide horse tipsters with great ROI and been thinking to invest with them next week.
I tell you what I do, now I won 400 Euro placing 10 Euro flat betting risking 2% of 500 Euro bankroll.
Now I place 7.5 Euro flat betting risking 2% of 375 Euro (50 units) and I buy a six-month package for 15 a month without risking my own money and play with winning to generate more winnings.
The problem in my country is that he sportsbooks need to pay tax in our country, so many sportsbooks operation vanish and not everyone allowing long term winners. Only have Sportmarket and Betfair back/lay market where Betfair take a commission on the odds.
I need to check if I can play horses on the price market on Betfair, if not then i cannot use horse race tipsters.
Cheers
Should also mention that other Tipsters and services are more expensive then Market beaters and the true price list is in the app.
Also, look at the amount of placed bets, their edge is verified and true.
Pricelist
All inclusive package six months 299 Euro - several tipsters with 7500 placed bets and 107.8 ROI
EU/UK Package six months 150 Euro
One Tipster six months 89 Euro
3 and 1 month is cheaper and you can pay monthly.
All inclusive package one month 50 Euro several tipsters
EU/UK 35 Euro
One Tipster 19 Euro
When I look at other tipsters they take around 30 to 35 Euro for one month and most of them don't have a record of 7500 placed bets with 107.8 ROI
Cheers
UPDATE
I play with the sportsbooks own money without risking my own.
Now is time to carefully pick one more service.
Find Greyhound Service with a placed bet from 2014 and with current 111% ROI - this means that the edge has manifest and are reliable.
19 Euro a month or 15 a month with a one-year subscription.
Average return 110 Euro a month flat betting 10 Euro.
Cheers