EC Money / JL Challenge

[iggiv]

wow...good for u Skakus. good for u

[Skakus]

I suppose I should keep a wL tally as that will show whether or not EC money is effective.

Current tally = 96w 86L +10w = 52.7% hit rate.

Like I said elsewhere if I can hit close to 50% then EC Money should profit well. It would depend somewhat on where the winners & losers come and I haven't tested extensively, but my guess is it could hit as low as 48% and still profit. If it goes much lower than that then it might struggle, we will see.

So accuracy is the key, and in that regard, early session accuracy is a big advantage.

This opens the possibility that my selection system combined with EC Money could benefit from a hit and run style approach, but that would rely on early session accuracy. If the early session selections are not accurate then the sessions could get lengthy and would rely on the EC Money plan to turn the tables to profit.

I will be experimenting with various session lengths to see if that could be true.

[Skakus]

 
Current tally = 99w 86L +13w = 53.5% hit rate.

[Still]

Skakus, this looks good! 

[attachimg=1]

So you are applying money management to about 20% of JL's bets?
Which bets are those again...EC bets?  How do you tell it's an EC bet?
Is there a thread that talks about what you are doing in a little more detail?

[Skakus]

Hello Still.

No mate, I have dropped JL's selections and joined the Bayes RNG challenge myself.

The results posted in this thread and uploaded online are from my own EC selection method. It's all in the link posted on reply 13 of this thread.

I've had a good start, which always helps with these things. I hope my luck holds for a while longer. It would be nice to clear the 1st danger zone and reach a bankroll of 732 units.     

[Still]

Hello Still.

No mate, I have dropped JL's selections and joined the Bayes RNG challenge myself.

The results posted in this thread and uploaded online are from my own EC selection method. It's all in the link posted on reply 13 of this thread.

I've had a good start, which always helps with these things. I hope my luck holds for a while longer. It would be nice to clear the 1st danger zone and reach a bankroll of 732 units. 

Oh ok thanks for the clarification.  So you started out testing against JLs prints, saw some positive results and then just decided to select your own EC's and have Bayes software print out the results of your money management?

I gotta hand it to Bayes and this new method of printing out results. 

Frankly, i'd jump on it too if i could sift through the information overload i'm experiencing here and get down to a system that actually produces.   I'm here to beat the game if at all possible.  Trying to decipher whether it is or isn't from the various vacillating voices is challenging.  I am not sure where to commit my limited supply of programming energy/ability for the most promising payoff.   

[Skakus]

Oh ok thanks for the clarification.  So you started out testing against JLs prints, saw some positive results and then just decided to select your own ECs and have Bayes software print out the results of your money management?

I gotta hand it to Bayes and this new method of printing out results. 

Frankly, i'd jump on it too if i could sift through the information overload i'm experiencing here and get down to a system that actually produces.   I'm here to beat the game if at all possible.  Trying to decipher whether it is or isn't from the various vacillating voices is challenging.  I am not sure where to commit my limited supply of programming energy/ability for the most promising payoff.

Well I know how you feel, but don’t look at me! Hahahaha!

Yes, Bayes deserves much Kudos for his efforts.


I started out pitting JL’s results against my EC Money management plan, but you need to hit close to 50% with your selections. Obviously you can hit more, but not much less. With a powerful MM plan like this I can’t for the life of me figure out why cheese only flat bets. I mean the guy claims a 72% strike rate, and I claim EC Money can profit with a 48% strike rate. With 72% EC Money would be irrepressible!

JL started out with an adequate strike rate to run the EC Money plan but dropped away for whatever reason. I was going to continue to see how bad it could get, or if it could recover but the challenge got derailed and restarted.

At that point someone scoffed that Bayes’ RNG was unbeatable, and me being a cheeky mongrel said I could beat it. So here we are. I have my own Bayes RNG challenge, and so far so good for me! If things stay on track it looks like I might get to open that new thread I mentioned somewhere >>> ‘Skakus Is A Douchbag’

[Stepkevh]

just a small question because i cant make it up out of your bayes results.

if you lose do you go up a unit in your betting-stage or 1 down ?

because you sometimes go up and down on W or L :-)

[Tomla021]

I could be wrong but it looks like a great MM
1) 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10
2) 2.4.6.8.10.12.14.16.18.20
3) 3.6.9.12.15.18.21.24.27.30
4) 4.8.12.16.20.24.28.32.36.40
5) 5.10.15.20.25.30.35.40.45.50
A staged D'alembert I guess.
The bet selection I cant figure out at all

[Skakus]

if you lose do you go up a unit in your betting-stage or 1 down ?

Yes that's right. 

Sometimes up sometimes down sometimes hold sometimes restart. Same thing when I win.

I could be wrong but it looks like a great MM
1) 1.2.3.4.5.6.7.8.9.10
2) 2.4.6.8.10.12.14.16.18.20
3) 3.6.9.12.15.18.21.24.27.30
4) 4.8.12.16.20.24.28.32.36.40
5) 5.10.15.20.25.30.35.40.45.50
A staged D'alembert I guess.
The bet selection I can't figure out at all

Hi Tomla021.

Don't try to figure it mate.

I've made mistakes along the way, and my betting is moving across separate sessions so you will go mad before you figure it out.

Cheers.

[Skakus]

Cool!

EC Money has made it to the second end zone with a bankroll of +603 units.


Back to the start with 1 unit bets.   

First master end zone is +732 or -132.

Next slave end zone is +615 or +567.

If I can win one more series of slave zones then I can afford one wipeout and still retain my starting bankroll.


Can this keep going I hear you ask? I certainly hope so, but in reality I expect to lose a few games at some point. I just hope I lose them at the low end of the progression table, not the high end.

I must say the last 3 or 4 sessions have been 'easy money'.

[Skakus]

If anyone has studied my uploaded results you will see that I often end a session when the wL registry is equal, or even when the w’s are behind, but the balance has gone up.

This can be a good time to stop, because you have made a profit or broke even despite a deficit in the selections. So you get a little bit even though the fluctuation/deviation is not being helpful, and things could get worse.

Game 4 wins 2 units, with a  14w/14L registry.

Game 5 wins 3 units, with a  13w/13L registry.

Game 6 wins 5 units, with a  5w/5L registry.

Game 7 wins 6 units, with a  3w/3L registry.

Game 11 wins 9 units, with a  6w/8L registry.

Etc,,,

[Bayes]

 Bank doubled already - impressive. 

Come on JL! this boy's whipping your ass! 

[Skakus]

 
Here is a very brief and basic example of the EC Money concept.

Below are the first 9 bets placed in the ‘Skakus Challenge’.



07/08/2012
EVEN     1   W   301
LOW      2   W   303
07/08/2012
LOW      1   W   304
LOW      2   L   302
ODD      2   L   300
ODD      3   W   303
ODD      3   L   300
BLACK    3   L   297
ODD      4   W   301

The wL registry shows 5w 4L and 1 unit profit.



Let’s reverse the decisions and see what happens.

07/08/2012
EVEN     1   L   299
LOW      2   L   297
07/08/2012
LOW      3   L   294
LOW      4   W   298
ODD      3   W   301
ODD      2   L   299
ODD      3   W   302
BLACK    2   W   304
ODD      2   L   302

The wL registry now shows 4w 5L and 2 units profit >>> Even better!


Ok, I’m going to shut up now and just do battle with the Bayes RNG for a while.

Cheers. 

[Skakus]

Bank doubled already - impressive.  >>>

Long way to go Bayes. You know roulette, so you know I could unravel in a heartbeat!