The Eggleston Betting System

[warrior]

I have put together a means of betting that overcomes the house advantage (even on American Roulette, but I don't see why you would give up the extra profits) in a very understandable way.    It can be explained in a way that will please the math guys, can be played flat or with a progression, and will work with many different methods of playing dozens.    It has some elements that will appeal to believers in the gambler's fallacy, but it is based squarely in the notion that wheels have no memory, and that spins are, therefore, completely random. 

I will not be explaining the actual bet selection method I use because it is nothing but noise that distracts from the elegance of making bets that have a positive expectancy.    I have discussed this betting mechanism with several contributors whom you would all recognize, with almost universal interest (the only dissenter can be explained away by mentioning a language barrier - it also lead to my decision to ignore the actual bet selection I use because this individual couldn't get past the simplistic method I have been using). 

Right here, I need to take a second to give full credit to two individuals - Richard, of Signum fame, and ommanipadmihum who made a brilliant leap in applying Signum to the dozens.    Both of their postings eventually directed me to where I am happy to find myself in my evolution as a winning roulette player. 

For any new readers who might not be familiar with the Signum system, it is a very clever way of interpreting short-term trends to help predict the next spin result on an EC bet.    Ommanipadmihum realized that the system could work on the dozens by turning the dozens bets into an EC bet, expecting movement among dozens from the last spin to the next as being either to the left or to the right.    Numerous postings documented the great results that came from applying EC methods but gaining 2-1 rewards.    The trip up came when the dozens didn't move to the left or to the right, but repeated.    Some suggested the best way was to start putting a unit on the repeating dozen after a series of repeats. 

Following is my improvement on the staking method that was discussed, as well as a brief mathematical explanation of how this betting method beats the house advantage over the long term:

Note:  I will not expound on what methodology you should use to determine expected L-R values.    You can use a follow-the-last, opposite-of-last, Signum, Lww, or whatever other system you choose to determine if your expectation is for the dozen to move left or right.    For the sake of this example, I have determined that the last spin fell in the 2nd dozen and I expect the next spin will move to the left into the 1st dozen. 

Since I expect the next bet to be in the 1st dozen, I place one unit there.    I place another unit on the 2nd dozen as the last dozen to have spun.    In the past, we have assumed that the house advantage would rule in such a bet because 13/37 would be (-2) and 24/37 would be (+1), resulting in -2 units per every 37 spins on average.    If we were to leave the bets on these two dozens, that is exactly what would occur.    This is where my betting method diverges from the rest.    This system minimizes losses, locks in profits, and allows the winning to run on all at the same time. 

If the spin gives us a result in the 1st dozen, we would count this as a win (W) and take our money off of the table.    If the spin gives us a result in the 3rd dozen, we would count this as a loss (L) and our money would be taken off the table anyway.    However, as long as the 2nd dozen might continue to repeat (R), we will duplicate our bet exactly.    This is the entirety of the Eggleston Betting system.    Stop with a win, stop with a loss, keep winning with repeats.    Then wait for whatever your next trigger is and begin again. 

Why does this work?  If we get a win from the 1st dozen, we are (+1), meaning (+12) out of 37 spins on average.    With a spin of 0 or the 3rd dozen, we are (-2), meaning (-26) out of 37 spins on average.    Excluding the 2nd dozen results, we are currently (-14) in 37 spins.    That means we would need the results from the 2nd dozen to average (+1.  1667) per spin to overcome the house advantage (-14 offset over 12 spins out of 37 where we expect 2nd dozen). 

What can we expect from typical returns from the 2nd dozen?  Since we won (+1) unit already with a repeat in the 2nd dozen, our next totally random spin has 1/12/12/12 out of 37 spins likelihood of hitting each position on the table again.    Ignoring the 0 here (just for the sake of easing the calculations), rather than the +1/+1/-2 results we would expect from covering 2 dozens, our new expectations are +2/+2/-1, or a grand total of +3.    Divided by the three possible outcomes, the average spin at this level is +1, exactly matching our usual expectations of the +1/+1/-2 2-dozen bet payouts.   

However, of these spins, roughly one third will result in yet another spin of the 2nd dozen, taking the same considerations as above to a new expected +3/+3/0, or +2 average.    Already, at this point, we are into positive expectancy territory.    Of the 12/37 spins that take us to the 2nd layer of payout expectations, approximately 4 spins (1/3 of 12) will go to a 3rd layer of payouts.    Another 1+ (4/3) will go to the 4th layer of payouts, +4/+4/+1, or +3 average.    Extrapolated out to these higher layers, the 12 spins in the 2nd dozen will pay approximately (8x+1, 3x+2, and 1x+3, or a total of 17).    Remember that we only needed to overcome -14 from the other 25 spins, giving us an expectation of +3 every 37 spins, more than +.  08 units on every spin on average.    Don't lose sight that over long periods, repeats can extend into higher level of payouts on those incredibly fun streaks that we have all seen where we hit 6, 7, 8, or more in the same dozen. 

The benefit to this system only comes when we follow the rules which require we stop betting after a win or a loss until a new trigger begins a new bet begins. 

Some advantages of this system:

It can be played with a flat bet or with a progression
It stays out of the way of prolonged series of results in one direction or the other
Even when our anticipated direction of movement is wrong, we may still end up being winners
It features advantages of both EC and 2-1 bets
It overcomes the house advantage


I am anxious to hear your reactions to this system.    What I have received so far has been very supportive, but if you see somewhere that it can be improved, by all means let me know.    I am also keen to hear how people may apply this to different systems they already play, just with the improved odds of profiting.

Also, I have attached a 40-spin series that ends with a net of +3 units, just slightly off my expected winnings of +3. xxx in 37 spins.   It was hurt in the middle by the brutal 2-3-2 chops but recovered.   Had I been playing my system, the net would have been +10, although I do use a negative progression.   Playing same as last is obviously a wildly simplistic betting method, but this should demonstrate the methodology and thoughts behind the system.

? how long have you played like this .

[Colbster]

I have been playing this method quite consistently for the last 6-8 weeks.  I started getting feedback from others when it continued to hold up to my tests about 2 weeks ago.  I have won regularly with RNG play, RNG real $, and live spins on a casino boat near my home.  To this date, I have lost exactly 3 times, with the worst loss being exactly 99 units.

Thanks for the interest.

[F_LAT_INO]

--Casino boat near my home---

Where is this as know few such casinos around.

[Colbster]

I live in SE Georgia, just a few miles north of Jacksonville, Florida, in the US.  We have a casino boat that leaves from the port just about 45 minutes away from me.  Have only gone once, with my brother- and sister-in-law, but had a decent time.  It was an American roulette table I played, but my system still beats the house advantage even with the 00.  Wanted to try it on a real table.  I was quite pleased with the results.

[F_LAT_INO]

Good on ya mate.

[ADulay]

--Casino boat near my home---

Where is this as know few such casinos around.

Down here in Florida, gambling is "illegal".

Uh, unless you're an Indian casino (but no roulette), a bingo hall, a church, any of 100,000 little "casino" stores along the side of the road (no tables) or a boat offshore!

The offshore gambling junkets are very popular here and they're available in most major coastal cities all over the state.

Cheap to buy a ticket to get on and after a short trip to the appropriate offshore marker, the casino fires up for 4 or 6 hours, depending which one you're on.

All in all it's a good time but the tables get very crowded early.  Luckily I eat my dinner early and by that time, most of the people have lost their stake (as I ate my steak) and can leisurely gamble at my own pace with the remaining players!

A good way to kill a Thursday night around here.

AD

[Twisteruk]

Sounds nice mate 

I do like a nice Rare Steak !

[Spinner]

Hi Colbster, thanks for posting this methodology.  I shall work through it and give feedback in a few days.

Best Rgds

[XXVV]

Hello Colbster

Thanks for your support and clear and open instructions where you emphasise it is essential to pause between bets until the direction changes.

I have tested only in flat staking form.

As is often the case with outside betting and flat staking it is wise to take profit at +3 or more if you are fortunate before a re-trace which if in chops mode can quickly erode your hard won profit.

By not pausing between directions, ie bulldozing on, play can be more volatile but sometimes runs of repeats can be harvested that otherwise would be missed.

After many 100 spin tests I am not convinced this method uptrends to your expected return when played to your recommended rules.

I like the method but recommend caution as always.

Cheers
XX V V

[Colbster]

I'm glad for the feedback.  The more I work with this betting process, the better I feel about the use of a progression of some sort.  The real money is made from the repeats, and the higher chip values that come with moving up the progression a little really kick the system into overdrive.  I play a 7-step progression (technically 14, but the amounts rise to level 7).  Your odds of losing 7 straight without any repeats is (13/37)^7.  This means about 3 in 5000 series.  I have only ever lost 3 times after heavy testing for the past 2 months.  If you are losing as frequently as you say, I would be keen to review your sessions for my own learning.

Thanks for giving it your effort!

[warrior]

I'm glad for the feedback.  The more I work with this betting process, the better I feel about the use of a progression of some sort.  The real money is made from the repeats, and the higher chip values that come with moving up the progression a little really kick the system into overdrive.  I play a 7-step progression (technically 14, but the amounts rise to level 7).  Your odds of losing 7 straight without any repeats is (13/37)^7.  This means about 3 in 5000 series.  I have only ever lost 3 times after heavy testing for the past 2 months.  If you are losing as frequently as you say, I would be keen to review your sessions for my own learning.

Thanks for giving it your effort!

i have no idea on how your placing your bets ,can you give ex.please.

[Tomla021]

i would love it if someone could show me this on even chances like red/ black, not quite getting it yet---but ask my wife she will tell you that im slow:)
thanks

[XXVV]

Hello Colbster

This data came live from the casino an hour ago, and illustrates both the good and other side of this bet as played falt and based on the dozens betting as you originally illustrated.

1
  20               play 2+3 as direction is R.
       33          hit +1  as direction is still are we pause
   8
        3
   8
       30          direction is L so trigger for bet 3+2
31                  hit +2 o/a
   29              hit repeat again +3 o/a and this is a good time to always take profit
6                    direction are so trigger to bet 1+2
28                  loss -2  so +1 o/a.  going L so trigger to bet 3 +2
       24          win +1 so +2 o/a. still left so track
   23
   11              
   20              going are so bet 2+3
19                  win +1 so +3 o/a and bet 2+3 again
    8               loss -2, so o/a +1. going L so bet 1+3
       15          loss -2, so o/a -1, going are so bet 2+3
    8               loss -2, so o/a -3 , going L so 1+3
   26              win +1. so o/a -2, going L so track and pause
    0               just as well
       33
   35
31
    8               going are so bet 1+2
   11              win +1, so o/a -1 and bet 1+2 again
       27          loss -2, so o/a -3, going L so bet 3+2
   17              win +1. so o/a -2,
16
   14
25                  going are so bet 3+1
   11              win +1, so o/a -1
   14
7                    going L so bet 1+3
       3            win +1, so o/a 0 and bet 1+3
4                    win +1, so o/a +1 and bet 1+3
       30          win +1. so o/a +2, going L so bet 3+2
       30          win +1, so o/a +3 ( suggest again take profit at +3 if not earlier), bet 3+2
    11             loss -2, so o/a +1. going R, so bet 1+2
25                  loss -2, so snakes and ladders down to -1 again and stop
10

This small sample illustrates acouple of points.

More often than not, a small profit flat staking appears. From multi testing +2000 spins it seems prudent to take profit at that level if flat staking.

If playing without pause there may have been several repeat opportunities to permit sufficient gain to often comfortably build to +5.

Thanks very much for sharing this. I hope I have played the sample correctly - please correct or improve where necessary.

The achilles heel of the bet appears to be chop passages, e.g. 2-3-2-3-2-3- etc. Perhaps there can be a virtual bet or stop when such patterns manifest. There are other bets that can be made that can take profit of such outcomes ( dominant pair of dozens or clusters).
These can run to 15 or more at times and can usually be recognised after 3 spins if two elements have manifested.

Looking forward to further comment here. Perhaps you can illustrate a small section of progression play, even factoring both dozens and cols and see how this may reduce risk exposure.

Cheers XX V V

[Colbster]

You are correct that chops do hurt this method, especially on flat betting.  To counter the chops, I have started playing a split martingale.  I have two separate progressions (I track via a sheet of paper marked with an L and and R, both followed by 1-2-4-8-16-32-64.  Whenever I have a new R bet, I refer to the R progression to help determine amount bet.  The same with new L bets.  These two bets are completely independent of one another.  The advantage of doing it in the manner is that it slows down the progression up to higher betting levels.  To illustrate, a true chop-series that beats the system from level 1 would require 15 chops in a row.  In the usual martingale, the 15th level is 16,384 units.  Since mine is split into two 7-step progressions, we are only up to 64 on my two columns.  This is much more manageable and does not run into the table limits.  In all of my time, I have only had 1 such loss at the 64-level.  After our back-and-forth on this issue, I am beginning to think that this betting mechanism is more suited for playing with a progression.

Here is what I don't want to see lost in this discussion though:  The bet process of repeating on repeats and taking the money on wins is the heart of this program.  My simplistic bet may not be the best vehicle to take advantage of this understanding.  That is why I originally did not post any thoughts on bet selections, and why I chose to post this topic in the first place.  It is my sincere desire that someone can take my betting method and apply it to a bet selection method that will give us an optimum system.  That is my goal here, and I don't want to see that lost (as I am afraid is already the case) because I didn't give a better example or way of playing.

[Colbster]

Tomla - There is no way for this method to be used on the dozens.  The important aspect of this betting system is the ability to win, lose, or repeat, requiring at least 3 result possibilities.  It can be adjusted to lines or streets, but not EC methods.