Comparing 3 different types of bets

[falkor]

I want to compare 3 different bets on 30 numbers to see which is the most affordable in the long run:

*30 individual numbers (1 unit each)
*5 double streets (1 unit each)
*3 units on low, 2 units on the 3rd dozen

-The first bet selection requires 30 units to make 1 unit profit, but the other 2 only require 5 units to make a 1 unit profit.
-The first bet selection will probably lose slightly less over the long run than the other 2, but the difference is negligible.
-The 2nd bet selection has more flexibility than the 3rd (5 variations vs. 2 variations).

If they lose on the first bet then how much is required to recover the bankroll and still make a 1 unit profit on the 2nd bet? Therefore, which example would be most affordable in the long run? Is there a difference in that respect with regards to the 2nd and 3rd selection?

[falkor]

There would be appear to be no difference between the 2nd and 3rd except the 3rd might fall within more restrictive table limits.

A comparison still needs to be made between the 1st and the 2nd to see which is cheaper in the long run.

[ego]

I can contribute with the last one...

Profit averages $60 per hour using $1 chips. Losing sessions are very rare -- about two per thousand spins.

Don't risk more than $100 on any spin.  Total bankroll is $185.

Two basic bets are made on every spin: Low (1-18) and the 3rd Dozen (25-36)


Bet One - One to Eighteen
The 1 - 18 bet on the outside of the roulette table covers the numbers 1 to 18.
This bet pays even money, meaning that a $1 bet pays $1 if any of the numbers 1 to 18 come up on the next spin.

Bet Two - Third Dozen
The 3rd Dozen or 3rd 12 bet on the outside of the roulette table covers the numbers 25 to 36.
This bet pays two to one, meaning that a $1 bet pays $2 if any of the numbers 25 to 36 come up on the next spin.

Placing the Two Bets Together
You can cover 30 numbers on the roulette layout by placing two bets on every spin: 1-18 and the 3rd Dozen.


Only 7 numbers  (8 on American wheels) can make you lose:  0,19,20,21,22,23 and 24.

You must place the two bets in the proper amount of 3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen.

Why?

* If 1 to 18 comes up, you win 3 chips on 1-18 and lose 2 chips on 25 to 36, for a profit of 1 chip.

* If 25 to 36 comes up, you win 4 chips on that bet and lose 3 chips on 1-18 for a profit of 1 chip.


Losing Frequencies
How many times in a row can the two bets lose?

The two bets together don't lose very often and not too many times in a row.

That's because on every spin you have 30 chances of winning versus only 8 chances of losing.

The odds of winning are tremendously in your favour.

After thousands of test spins using recorded casino spins, the most times in a row the two bets lost were four times.

In an average 1000 (live) spins, there should be:
• 210 single losses
•  40 two-in-a-row losses
•   9 three-in-a-row losses
•   2 four-in-a-row losses
•   0 five-in-a-row or more losses

These numbers are based on mathematical probability. During testing, the numbers varied from each group of 1000 spins, but not by much.

We have never seen a five-in-a-row loss in our testing. This doesn't mean five in a row or more are not possible. Anything is possible, but the odds against seeing five in a row losses or more are astronomical!

On average, you can expect a two-in-a-row or more loss once every 40 spins.

With such a low "losses in a row" rate, you can formulate simple progressions to take advantage of these great odds.

Winning Progressions
If any one of the 7 or 8 losing numbers come up, 0,19,20,21,22,23 or 24, you lose both bets for a total loss of 5 chips.

If you bet 5 chips on every spin, you will lose money in the long run. However, if you increase your two bets after a loss, you will win more money in the long term than you lose in the short term.

Our "basic bet" is 3/2 (3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen).

Continue to bet 3/2 until you have a loss  -- when 0,19,20,21,22,23 or 24 comes up.

One Loss
After your first losing bet increase your bet to 9/6.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 9/6.
If that bet wins, you have made a 1 chip profit.
You only need to win the next two spins in a row to show a profit.

Example
The first spin is 21. You lose 5 chips.
Your next bet is 9 chips on 1-18 and 6 chips on the 3rd Dozen.
The next spin is 4. You win 9 chips on 1-18 and lose 6 chips on the 3rd Dozen for a profit of 3 chips. When you subtract the 5 chips you lost on the first spin, you're still down 2 chips.
Your next bet is again 9 and 6 chips. 
The next spin is 7. You're profit for this spin is again 3 chips. Add that to your minus 2 chips and you're ahead 1 chip.
You now go back to your basic bet of 3/2 chips.

Two Losses in a Row
Our "basic bet" is 3/2 (3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen).
After first losing bet your next bet is 9/6.
If that bet loses, your next bet is 33/22.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 33/22.
If that bet wins, you have made a 1 chip profit.
Your next bet is again 3/2

Three Losses in a Row
Our "basic bet" is 3/2 (3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen).
After first losing bet your next bet is 9/6.
If that bet loses, your next bet is 33/22.
If that bet loses, your next bet is 74/36.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 74/36.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 74/36.
Your next bet is again 3/2.If either of the last two bets lose, take the $185 loss and play again later.

Converting Four-in-a-row Losses to Winners
This strategy eliminates most four-in-a-row losses.
Anytime one of the eight losing number shows up, switch to the opposite two bets for the next bet:
On the next bet after a loss, place 9 chips on 19-36 and 6 chips on the 1st Dozen.
Then, switch back to your normal bets.

Example
Consider this sequence of spins:
19
21
19
23
19
21 (betting on 19-36 and the 1st Dozen turns this into a win!)
19 (switching back to 1-18/3rd Dozen turns this into one loss)
23 (betting on 19-36 and the 1st Dozen turns this into a win!)


Profit Expectation
In an average 1000 spins you should win $630. ($1000 minus 2 losses of $185 each).

As stated earlier, you should only experience 2 four-in-a-row losses per thousand spins.

The above progression is the one we use when we play this system.

You can experiment with your own progressions if you'd like.

I test this bet selection ...

This is how it looks with todays random org results.

5
2
6
1
4 (line 3 is sleeping)
5 W
2 W
1 W
1 W
6 W
6 W
6 W
1 W
6 W
5 W
2 W
6 W
4 W
5 W
6 W
3 L

2
1
5
3
6 (line 4 is sleeping)
5 W
6 W
1 W
6 W
3 W
1 W
3 W
6 W
4 L

6
2
4
1
5 (line 3 is sleeping)
6 W
1 W
3 L

6
5
3
5
3
5
5
3
1
3
3
2 (line 4 is sleeping)
4 L

2
1
5
2
6
4 (line 3 is sleeping)
2 W
4 W
2 W
1 W
5 W
2 W
4 W
3 L

1
6
5
5
5
3
2 (line 4 is sleeping)
1 W
5 W
5 W
6 W
5 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
6 W
6 W
4 L

2
3
1
1
6
3
6
1
5 (line 4 is sleeping)
5 W
3 W
5 W
3 W
6 W
6 W
6 W
1 W
1 W
1 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 W
6 W
1 W
2 W
5 W
4 L

[RouletteGhost]

If it is true that it does not exceed 5 losses in a row then is that not the grail?

[falkor]

Thanks ego! So you agree it's a good bet selection and pretty hard to lose with a 5-step progression? My testing would have reached a similar conclusion no doubt. The next step might be to break up that 5-step progression into several separate progressions that take longer to chase the losses, but require a cheaper bankroll overall until one can afford the required bankroll. So that might mean adjusting the Star System for this bet. Another project might be to adjust Reverse Labby or any other system for the same bet. So that's where I think my research is heading, but right now, I still don't know if the bet in question is cheaper than 30 individual numbers after a 5 step progression.

[falkor]

Actually, ego seems to have already factored in the staggering of bets in his 4-step progression allowing for 2 losses of 185 every 1000 profit. I think ego deserves a round of applause! He seems to have sussed everything out already based on where my logic was heading.

ego, did you ever publish this system before? And what name did you give it?

Does the switching of bets definitely remove an extra loss in testing? So I think this could be the holy grail then!

[Chris555p]

For cheaper but highly effective progression, try Foolproof Variation Progression.
Relevant link is in the forum.

[falkor]

Have you got a direct link please? I can't seem to find anything for "Foolproof Variation Progression"

[Chris555p]

Here it is; It usually applies to even chance bets, but there is no reason
as to why it cannot be modified to be adapted to this particular bet
selection.

link:s://:.dropbox.com/s/zmwixa1giyo9rsm/Stetson%20Bailey.pdf

[falkor]

Thanks Chris,

I'll check that out!

In the meantime, however, from my general roulette testing I found that a Double Street can appear 8 times in a row max in 1 million spins, so that would spell 8 potential losses in a row for ego's system to overcome - not 4! But then since he has a stop loss after 3 based on his staggered progression then that deserves to be tested in its own right.

[ego]

You all have to do your own testing ... here is the RX code for the system ...
All system fail when you test them into the long run ...

-


system "World's Best and Safest Roulette system Ver 2"
{
*************************************
*         System by Zac2170         *
*         on the VIP Lounge         *
*************************************
         Rx-ed by Sp1N-D1zZy
-------------------------------------
           00-c0mpatible
-------------------------------------
Bet on Low and 3rd Dozen simultaneously with the following progression:

3/2, 9/6, 33/22, 74/36, 240/160, 600/400

On a loss, move up one in progression AND switch betting layout to
opposite of current layout. (If Low and 3rd Dozen, change to High and 1st Dozen.)

On a win, switch layouts back to original. If at 3/2, start again from scratch.
If at 9/6, wait for 2 wins in a row before starting again from scratch.
If at 33/22, again wait for 2 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 74/36, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 240/160, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 600/400, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
-------------------------------------
}
method "main"
begin
while starting new session
    begin
    call "Init"
    end
if net > 0
    begin
    copy list [low] record"Even"layout
    copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
    if record"Even"data index = 2 or record"Even"data index = 3
        begin
        add 1 record"Loss Progression"data
        if record"Loss Progression"data = 2
            begin
            put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
            put 1 record"Even"data index
            put 1 record"Dozen"data index
            end
        end
    if record"Even"data index = 4 or record"Even"data index = 5
    or record"Even"data index = 6
        begin
        add 1 record"Loss Progression"data
        if record"Loss Progression"data = 3
            begin
            put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
            put 1 record"Even"data index
            put 1 record"Dozen"data index
            end
        end
    end
if net < 0
    begin
    put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
    add 1 record"Even"data index
    add 1 record"Dozen"data index
    call "Switch Layouts"
    if record"Even"data index > record"Even"data count
        begin
        put 1 record"Even"data index
        put 1 record"Dozen"data index
        copy list [low] record"Even"layout
        copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
        end
    end
call "Place Bets"
end

method "Place Bets"
begin
put 100% record"Even"data record"Even"layout
put 100% record"Dozen"data record"Dozen"layout
end

method "Switch Layouts"
begin
if list [low] pattern match record"Even"layout
    begin
    copy list [high] record"Even"layout
    copy list [1st Dozen] record"Dozen"layout
    end
    else
    begin
    copy list [low] record"Even"layout
    copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
    end
end

method "Init"
begin
copy list [low] record"Even"layout
copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
group
    begin
    display "World's Best and Safest Roulette System"
    display "------------------------------------------------------------------------------"
    input dropdown "Progression
    1:=4 Step
    2:=5 Step
    3:=6 Step" record"Progression Step"data
    end
if record"Progression Step"data = 1
    begin
    set list [3,9,33,74] record"Even"data
    set list [2,6,22,36] record"Dozen"data
    put 1 record"Even"data index
    put 1 record"Dozen"data index
    end
if record"Progression Step"data = 2
    begin
    set list [3,9,33,74,240] record"Even"data
    set list [2,6,22,36,160] record"Dozen"data
    put 1 record"Even"data index
    put 1 record"Dozen"data index
    end
if record"Progression Step"data = 3
    begin
    set list [3,9,33,74,240,600] record"Even"data
    set list [2,6,22,36,160,400] record"Dozen"data
    put 1 record"Even"data index
    put 1 record"Dozen"data index
    end
end

-

If you don't have Roulette Extreme, then you should get a copy as that would save you alot of money.
Google UXSoftware and roulette.

[Chris555p]

@ Ego

Thanks for sharing this great system. I have a couple of question
to ensure I'm testing it properly:

Assuming you have a 1st loss because no. 19 came.
For your second bet you switch the bets around i.e you bet 9 units on
19-36 and 6 units on first dozen.

Assume you loose this second bet because no. 13 came. Will you switch around
again for your third bet....? i.e 33 units on no 1-18 and 22 units on 3rd
dozen....?

Thanks for your assistance.

Chris

[warrior]

All systems fail but we keep trying is there something wrong with all of us?

[Chris555p]

Yes I agree,  but the main thing is that we win more than we loose;
the rest is unimportant.

[falkor]

I've saved that system into Roulette Xtreme. Anyone know how to quickly test it over 1,000 spins and run a simple stat/graph or something? So far I activated it and set it to the current document, but then it keeps coming up with the debug or code window every time I click spin. Not sure how I am supposed to use the software?