I've run out of good names

[GLC]

I know that all the brainiacs say that every even chance bet selection method has the same chance of winning or losing as any other even chance bet selection method.   Bet selections like penultimate, FTL, OLD, Opposite penultimate, Red only, etc...

Are they right?

Here's the only exception.  If you disagree that this is an exception, prove it!

Let's use Red/Black for our explanation:

Main Rule:  Bet the color that hit the least in the last 3 spins.  That means if we have RBB or BRB or BBR we bet for R to hit.  If we have BRR or RBR or RRB we bet for B to hit.  (This rule can be expanded to the least out of 5 spins or 7 spins or any odd number of spins)

You ask what if we have RRR or BBB?  Do we bet the color that's missing? NO! 

In the Main rule we bet for the one that is DUE.  In other words Red has hit twice and Black has hit once so Black is due to hit to keep the balance.

In the Minor Rule:  Bet for a streak of 3 to continue.  The reason is that we're swinging out of balance so we might as well bet for it to keep swinging.  We have to have 2 losses with no more than 1 Win between them before we revert back to the Main Rule.  If we have 2 wins in a row while in streak mode, we ignore any previous losses.  We now have to have 2 losses before we revert back to Main Rule betting.

If we have WLL at this point let's say we have 3 in a row so we bet for the streak to continue and we get WLWL at this point we revert back to Main Rule because we have had 2 losses with no double WW between them.  But if we get WLWW from here we ignore the L and must get 2 losses to have to revert back to Main Rule.

So if we have:

Spin          Bet            W/L
Color        Color
B
B
R
R             R                   W
R             B                    L
R             R                   W
B             R                   L    1st loss on streak bet.  Don't revert back.
R             R                   W   See, B was just an interrupt
R             R                   W   Still betting on the streak.
R             R                   W
B             R                   L    1st loss on streak bet.  Don't revert back.
B             R                   L    2nd loss on streak bet.  Revert back to Main Rule
R             R                   W    Do you understand this last bet?

Anytime you lose 3 in a row stop betting until you have a paper win, then resume where you should be if you're following the Main and Minor Rules.

R
B
R
B              B          W
R              R          W
R              B          L
R              B           L
B              R           L      Stop betting until a W on paper. Minor Rule here
B              R           L
B              R           L
R              B           L
B              B           W     Bet B per Minor Rule. Paper win. Start betting for real
R              B           L       2nd loss in streak mode.  Back to Main Rule betting
B              B          W   
R              R          W   etc...

A piece of cake. Bet progression:
1            1st step in a 3 step capped martingale
2            2nd step
4            3rd step
3    6      1st bet in a 2 step parlay.  If win 3 bet, bet the 6.  A win causes a reset to 1.
4    8      From here on are 2 step parlays.   Only bet the 2nd number if you win the 1st.
5    10
7    14

Or you can use any bet progression you want.  Here's another favorite.

1  1  2  2  3  4  5   7    9    12  16
2  3  4  5  6  8  10 14  18  24  32

The above progression is played left to right and top to bottom.  It is based on not losing 2 in a row for 11 attempts. So we bet 1 and if we lose we bet the 2 if we win either, we move 1 step to the right.We bet 1 and if we win we don't bet the 3 below it, we move 1 step to the right.We bet the 2 and if we lose we bet the 4 below it and if we win either we move 1 step to the right.We bet the 2nd 2 and if we win we move to the 3 bet etc... We play this progression until we have won 11 times without losing 2 times in a row. If we make it, we will have about 48 units minus the 3 we started with = +45 units. That means we can attempt this 15 times before we lose a 50 unit buy-in.

By the way, you can stop the progression at any point as long as you're up.

GLC

[TwoCatSam]

Well, this will take some work.

Thanks, George! 

Should we have a "name it" contest?

TCS

[F_LAT_INO]

Bravo George,
Too bad it couldn't compete for OG,it would get gold medal surely.
Without training there wouldn't be any results,so guys start working
to become a winner.Your trainer is genious.

[Skakus]

Should we have a "name it" contest?

Hare & Tortoise.

[vundarosa]

Roogona voodua!

:-D

vundarosa

[Ralph]

If you bet for not loose two times after each other, use your best bet selection, and play
1/3 first 2/3 second parlay as long you got stomach. start with nine units, all that you can lose.

11 successfull runs will make a lot of chips.

[GLC]

This was just an introduction to the 1/3; 2/3 betting system. 

Read the following link for a good introduction to the concept.

link:://archive.org/stream/montecarloanecdo00bethiala#page/147/mode/1up

I will be expanding on this idea in later posts.  It is the nucleus of some powerful bet progressions that bring us to the brink of holy grail territory.

One glimpse I will give you has to do with the power of compounding interest, especially leaving interest earned in the pot so it can earn interest also.

GLC

[TwoCatSam]

George

Is the method you described in the first post the same as the one in the book you linked?

Sam

[GLC]

George

Is the method you described in the first post the same as the one in the book you linked?

Sam

No!  As usual I have mixed multiple ideas in one topic. 

The last bet progression I posted is based on the bet method from the book.  I based mine on starting with 3 units instead of 9 units.  In the book they divide the bets into 3 units and 6 units.  So 1/3 on the 1st bet and if that one loses, 2/3 on the second bet.  I suggested 1 unit on the 1st bet and 2 units on the second bet.

The bet selection is also different.  The author in the book suggests playing for alternating colors or chops.  You just play opposite the last spin.  As long as you don't get 3 of the same color in a row, you are winning.  Once you get 3 of the same color, you lose your stake.

In the book the system is played until you lose twice in a row or reach 202 chips.  This is starting with 9 units each attack.  You can attempt 23 times before you will lose money on a win.  After 23 attempts you will have to increase you starting bet size accordingly to fully recover on 1 win.

This is an interesting way to play if you would like to try to win a quick hit sometime.  Winning 11 times without losing 2 times in a row happens regularly, but as we all know, it can "not" happen for a very long time also.  A little luck don't hurt, ever.

[TwoCatSam]

GLC  (I always think of that commercial...."It's a great little car!")

So if I see red, I bet 3 units on Black.  If I win, I begin the game anew.  If I lose, I bet 6 units on black.  If I lose, I'm toast.  If I win, I start the game anew.

Sam

[GLC]

GLC  (I always think of that commercial...."It's a great little car!")

So if I see red, I bet 3 units on Black.  If I win, I begin the game anew.  If I lose, I bet 6 units on black.  If I lose, I'm toast.  If I win, I start the game anew.

Sam

Sam, you got it all wrong.  Here's a sample game that illustrates a win.  We're going to use the authors bet progression starting with 9 units.  We split these 9 units into 2 bets.  One bet of 1/3 and a second bet of 2/3.  Or, 3 and 6.  Anytime we lose betting the 1/3 bet, we next bet the 2/3s bet.  If either one of these bets wins, we win 3 units.  If both of them loses, we lose our 9 units.

The last spin was R so we begin by betting 3 units on B.  Let's say a R showed.  We lose 3 units so now we have to bet our 2/3 bet and since a R was last color we bet for a chop, or B.  B spins so we win.  We win 3 units, 6-3=3.  We add these 3 units to our pot and we now have 12 units.  We're not finished yet.  We're going to put the casino's money to work along with ours.  We again divide the 12 units into 1/3 and 2/3 or 4 and 8.

Our last spin was B so we bet 4 units on R.  R hits and we win 4 more units.  Add these to our pot and we have 16 units.  We divide 16 into 1/3 and 2/3s and we have 5 and 10 with 1 unit extra.  You could bet the 1 unit and make our 2 bets either 6 and 10 or 5 and 11.  Let's stay with the author's example and bet 5 units on B since R hit last.  Let's say R hits again and we lose.  Now we bet our 10 unit bet and B hits which is a win giving us 5 additional chips.  16+5=21 units in our pot.
21 divided by 3 = 7 so our bets are 7 and 14.  We bet 7 on R and R spins so we win again.  7+21=28 divided by 3=9 with 1 extra. We next bet 9 on B and R hits so we lose 9.  We bet our 2/3s bet of 18 on B and B hits so we win 18-9=+9.  28+9=37.  37 divided by 3=12.  We bet 12 on R and it wins so we add 12 to 37 for +49.  49 divided by 3 = 16 with 1 extra.  We bet 16 on B but R hits so we lose.  We bet our 2/3s bet of 32 and B hits, a win.  49+16=65 divided by 3 = 21.  Bet 21 on R and R hits so we win.  65+21 = 86.  86 divided by 3 = 28 with 2 extra.  Bet 28 on B and win.  86+28 = 114 divided by 3 = 38.  Bet 38 on R and R hits so we win. 114+38 = 152 divided by 3 = 50.  Bet 50 on B and R hits so we lose.  That means we have to bet our 2/3s bet of 100 on B.  Let's say B spins so we win which nets us +50.  152+50 = 202 units.

This is where the author ends his attack.  He converted 9 chips into 202 chips with 11 wins.  Had he lost 2 times in a row at any point, he would have lost everything he had accumulated plus his 9 original chips.  He could have stopped at any point along the way.

Winning 11 times without losing 2 in a row is rare, but 202 divided by 9 = 23 so we can lose our original 9 units 23 times and still come out ahead if we win our 11 times the next time we attack.

I have a friend who plays this on the Pass/Don't Pass in craps and loves it.  He plays my progression that starts with 3 units instead of 9 units but uses the same method of betting 1/3 and then 2/3s if needed.  He plays until he wins 12 units and then starts over.  That's 5 wins without a double loss.
Hope this clears it up for you, Sam. 

Things cooling off there in OKC yet?

[Ralph]

How you start from three?

Bet one win you have 4  if lost bet 2 win you have 4.

Next bet the same and you will have the one spare, and for all 5

Next bet the same again, you have 2 spare and for all 6.

Now you can bet 2 and 4 and if not lose in  2 spins you have total of 8

Now bet 2 and 4 once more 2 spare and you got total  of 10.

Next bet 3 and 6 and one spare and end up with  13 total.

How you can play it other way?

[TwoCatSam]

OK, George, I'm clear now.

Thanks for the detailed explanation.  I'm sitting in front of BV watching the robot play so I can also test this a bit.

It showered here today--just enough to make you thirsty but the temp dropped to 86 tonight which is a virtual cold front!

I thought I had gone deaf, but it was just a "no-air conditioner" sound!

Sam

[GLC]

How you start from three?

Bet one win you have 4  if lost bet 2 win you have 4.

Next bet the same and you will have the one spare, and for all 5

Next bet the same again, you have 2 spare and for all 6.

Now you can bet 2 and 4 and if not lose in  2 spins you have total of 8

Now bet 2 and 4 once more 2 spare and you got total  of 10.

Next bet 3 and 6 and one spare and end up with  13 total.

How you can play it other way?

I understand your perspective.  I prefer to add the odd units to one of the 2 bets.  If the bet with the extra unit wins, you win an additional unit.
So we have 1 and 2.  The 1 wins and now we have 4
Instead of just 1 and 2, we will bet 1 and 3.  If we lose the 1 bet but win the 3 bet we will have 6 instead of 5 and can go to 2 and 4 for the next level.
In the long run it may not matter which way you choose to do it.

I notice that it can make more difference when you're playing 1 2 4 or 1 2 4 8.

I have been testing the 1 2  4 8 series with excellent results.  I know this can be misleading since you naturally get a lot more wins before hitting a 4 in a row loss.

Here's the progression I use.  It's approximate.  The main thing when creating a progression is to try to keep the intervals between numbers as equal as possible.
1 1 1 1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   5
2 2 2 2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   8   8   9  10
4 4 5 5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   7   8   9   9   9   10 11 11 12 12 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 20
8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 23 24 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 36 40

That's 30 attempts to win without losing 4 in a row.  If we make it, we will be up by 75 units minus our 15 units to start with for a new of 60 units.  Since we start each attack with 15 units, that gives us 4 tries to win 30 times without losing 4 in a row.

[Ralph]

I was trying it once, did not lose 4 times. I did not go through all steps, as I thought 50 units was quite good, and risky to add most of this on the table. The bet selection method simple, try to see a trend. Bet black and red.  Lost a 3,7 and chicken out with 50 Euro plus.

I think it is a good method, as long you  feel it floats, but I recommend at certain situations to not go trough the all. 50 is better than -15.