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Started by warrior, Feb 24, 06:02 PM 2014

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Firefox

I don't have a big edge. Maybe 5% when conditions are right. And when they are wrong, I have to stop playing. Even if they are right I can still lose, the same way as one can win if you play a normal negative expectation casino table game. Over the long term though, I win, at a small rate.

Bebediktus3

Quote from: Firefox on Jan 17, 04:59 PM 2019I don't have a big edge. Maybe 5% when conditions are right.
But with these corners you still himself do your edge less . Why you do not play on the race track?  I many played in London, mostly NMB 2-3 rot till the end. If you will bet 5 rot till end nobody will pay attention to you...
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

Firefox

It's the same edge against you betting on corners as betting straight up on a number +2.7% for the casino for both (before you take into consideration wheel watching) Corners and streets don't have a bigger house edge. If you think that, it's a common misconception.

I have tried neighbours betting. There have been occasions where I have won a few and the pit boss told the dealer to turn the wheel fast or call nmb early and then they change the dealer. I have never had this problem placing layout bets.

Turning the wheel fast is bad for the casino. It causes more wear on the wheel and ball and annoys random players who like to watch their numbers come up. With a fast wheel they can't see anything and it spoils some enjoyment.

Calling nmb early is bad for the casino as many random players like to place late bets and they get less money per spin on the table.

But if you can place late neighbours bets and keep winning without them changing anything, then good luck, keep doing it :)

Bebediktus3

Quote from: Firefox on Jan 17, 05:47 PM 2019I have tried neighbours betting. There have been occasions where I have won a few and the pit boss told the dealer to turn the wheel fast or call nmb early and then they change the dealer. I have never had this problem placing layout bets.
Really play as you want, but if I will come to the table where you play I will bet neighbours.... :). I think you afraid what still not happened and maybe never will happen...
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

Firefox

I've been playing 15 years using this method. Maybe not as regularly as I want due to other commitments. But I keep records and am definitely up about 5%.

Over your 20 years, what percentage do you think you have on your total amount bet?

The General

Quote from: Firefox on Jan 17, 08:55 PM 2019
I've been playing 15 years using this method. Maybe not as regularly as I want due to other commitments. But I keep records and am definitely up about 5%.

Over your 20 years, what percentage do you think you have on your total amount bet?

Keep in mind the drops on the wheels that I play are much better than what you have in the UK because here in North America they view the game as a carnival game.  The average edge is closer to 25% ten to eleven revs out.  No device, no thumper, no computer. 
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Firefox

25% is impressive. You'd be given the back off in the UK for that, if you're putting reasonable sums down. A guy got barred here a few years back for winning £28,000 over a few sessions.  No reason given, they just didn't accept his custom any more.

link:s://:.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1218061/In-money-Gambler-banned-UK-casinos-winning-28-000-using-secret-system.html

The General

Quote from: Firefox on Jan 17, 09:31 PM 2019
25% is impressive. You'd be given the back off in the UK for that, if you're putting reasonable sums down. A guy got barred here a few years back for winning £28,000 over a few sessions.  No reason given, they just didn't accept his custom any more.
link:s://:.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1218061/In-money-Gambler-banned-UK-casinos-winning-28-000-using-secret-system.html

There's an old saying among APs about the UK.  Winning in the UK is one thing, actually getting paid is another.   A couple of friends of mine were put in jail there back in 1982.   That being said though, I'm currently banned from countless casinos in the US and parts of Canada. 

In the US the best camouflage is playing the game.
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Firefox

You can win big in the UK if you're a big player. You win big and lose bigger. Just winning big is not in their rulebook.

I play small and win small. Just win enough for a free meal, pay travel and some spare change. I'm just a nuisance not a threat as £50 or £100 does not scratch table averages and goes under the radar.

Bebediktus3

Quote from: Firefox on Jan 17, 10:54 PM 2019I play small and win small. Just win enough for a free meal, pay travel and some spare change.
Not tell fairy tales... If you will be sure in your winning they will be big. No logic in such talks. If somebody to you offers money in different money coupon 50-500 and 5000 and you choose 50... Not looks to you himself that this is absurd?
Not try to beat the game, much easier to beat the wheel...
Some peoples very not like, when I say how to win, or why they can't win.

Firefox

The answer to that is simple. The offer of  50 comes with the offer of further coupons, whereas  the offer of 5000 comes with the risk of prevention of further offers or being banned from getting any coupons at all. Besides, I don't need coupons to live, I've other income sources,  so it's only ever been a hobby.

The General

I can respect a guy that plays for sport.  :thumbsup:
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Roulettebeater

General

You claim you are an expert.
Let’s play this quiz :

If I tell you how many pockets the wheel moved in a specified time, and I tell you also how many pockets the ball travelled in the same time interval.

Will you be able to calculate the ball and wheel speed ?
1- yes
2- no
3- i dunno
A dollar won is twice as sweet as as a dollar earned

The General

Quote from: Roulettebeater on Jan 20, 09:45 AM 2019
General

You claim you are an expert.
Let’s play this quiz :

If I tell you how many pockets the wheel moved in a specified time, and I tell you also how many pockets the ball travelled in the same time interval.

Will you be able to calculate the ball and wheel speed ?
1- yes
2- no
3- i dunno

Roulettebeater,

If you know the speed of the wheel, then you can use that to determine how fast the ball is traveling.  (Cross over patterns.  Not real accurate, but it will get the job done.)
If you know the speed of the ball, then you could even theoretically determine the speed of the wheel (wouldn't recommend it though as it wouldn't provide a "grainy" enough measurement to make a very accurate prediction.)

However, if you don't know the speed of either the ball or the wheel, then predictions become very hard because you don't know which is traveling faster, the ball or the wheel.  You can still make predictions, but they won't be very accurate.  (Jaffo does this stuff.)

Ideally, in order to predict several revs out you need to measure the distance that the wheel travels over the longest possible interval so that you can have the largest number of offsets to choose from.  The same applies for the ball.  You must be able to conceptualize the ball decay to pick the best drop zone.

If the ball lap times indicate a rather linear ball decay pattern, then you can use simple linear regression formulas like  T=( t1 x t2 x t) / (R x (t2 â€" t1)). -Source Miro. 

Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

Roulettebeater

Quote from: The General on Jan 20, 12:57 PM 2019
Roulettebeater,

If you know the speed of the wheel, then you can use that to determine how fast the ball is traveling.  (Cross over patterns.  Not real accurate, but it will get the job done.)
If you know the speed of the ball, then you could even theoretically determine the speed of the wheel (wouldn't recommend it though as it wouldn't provide a "grainy" enough measurement to make a very accurate prediction.)

However, if you don't know the speed of either the ball or the wheel, then predictions become very hard because you don't know which is traveling faster, the ball or the wheel.  You can still make predictions, but they won't be very accurate.  (Jaffo does this stuff.)

Ideally, in order to predict several revs out you need to measure the distance that the wheel travels over the longest possible interval so that you can have the largest number of offsets to choose from.  The same applies for the ball.  You must be able to conceptualize the ball decay to pick the best drop zone.

If the ball lap times indicate a rather linear ball decay pattern, then you can use simple linear regression formulas like  T=( t1 x t2 x t) / (R x (t2 â€" t1)). -Source Miro.

You didn’t answer my question

My question was clear, I have neither the time nor the interest to read essay
A dollar won is twice as sweet as as a dollar earned

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