I know this is getting old but its kind of intriguing. Follow me on this.
There are many many articles (from pro's and members here) that say, the LONGER you stay at the casino, the more likely you'll lose. The *MATH* (H.E.) catches up to you and you are doomed. I'm not even saying I disagree with this, its all too confusing. (lol)
.....but hit & run is wrong? Isn't the definition of hit & run, playing for a short period of time, then leaving? So, every visit (that means going to a CASINO, rookies) is ONE LONG STRING OF PLAYING, combined? Those are actually my words from a previous post.
Well, people cant have it BOTH ways, you cant preach both. Do NOT say hit & run is wrong/does not help AND say, dont spend too long at the casino, it'll catch up to you. I feel both statements are a contradiction in terms.
I still believe, switching tables does not help but I guess thats a different topic.
Also, I know RG will jump on this but take pause sir. I'm not defending you, you never even entered my thoughts while thinking of this.
Ken
To say hit and run doesnt work is a broad statememt
People try to make the same shoe fit different sizes
If it works for someone 9 out of 10 times then id say it works
And you are right. Biggest contradiction= dont stay too long and in another breath hit and run doesnt matter
If you play a strategy that wins 90 percent of the time then hit and run is your friend
Hit n run doesn't help. When you play 1000 spins at once, or play 100 spins 10 times, you're exposing yourself equally. Saying you win 90% of time has no value, as winning 9 times 10 units and lossing 1 time 100 units doesn't make you a winner, off course assuming you play with progression. Even chance flat bet would make you a billionaire in no time though :)
Quote from: idob on Dec 13, 09:12 AM 2015
Hit n run doesn't help. When you play 1000 spins at once, or play 100 spins 10 times, you're exposing yourself equally. Saying you win 90% of time has no value, as winning 9 times 10 units and lossing 1 time 100 units doesn't make you a winner, off course assuming you play with progression. Even chance flat bet would make you a billionaire in no time though :)
Okay, so then do you DISAGREE......playing for too long, the H.E. cuts more into your profit, you are exposed MORE to the H.E.
Is this incorrect?
Ken
link:://uh.edu/engines/hrs-roulette-chart.jpg (link:://uh.edu/engines/hrs-roulette-chart.jpg) << I posted this a couple months ago. Isn't this chart the anti-hit & run? To repeat, the *LONGER* you stay, the H.E should catch up to you. Dont get me wrong, I'm not saying you cant get your a** kicked in the first two hours, not saying that at all.
The issue when reading (from the pro's) regarding "dont stay too long", they never really address the NEXT day or NEXT week etc. So lets say I went on Monday and got in and out, did not stick around too long. I go again on Thursday, doesn't my CLOCK (its a term I use) start over FRESH?
I can even speak from ACTUAL casino play. If I had to guess, I would say I have played around 800 times (est)......and thats really not a lot. So after 800 times, you NOTICE things. Things you might feel are only a coincidence...or not.
I have been up, way up in the first 2-3 hours. I end up staying and not only lose my profit but also half my original BR. Same question (no answer yet) .....isn't the DEFINITION of hit & run to play for a short period of time then leave? So its a good question for the anti-hit & run guys.....what is your definition of hit & run? I did NOT say you endorse it, I'm only asking for the definition of it.
Ken
link:://:.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0910/casino-stats-why-gamblers-rarely-win.aspx (link:://:.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0910/casino-stats-why-gamblers-rarely-win.aspx) <<<
"it does mean that the more you play, the more the math works against you and the better the chances are of you walking out of the casino with less money in your wallet than when you came in"
(not saying this is wrong but again, it says NOTHING regarding returning NEXT week...THAN WHEN YOU CAME IN).
"The more a player struggles to get ahead, the more he gets pulled into additional losses" (not saying this is wrong but again, it says NOTHING regarding returning NEXT week).
"make sure to quit while you're ahead" << Could this not be hit & run?
Ken
i can say that when people are winning at roulette they pamper you and convince you to stay....so that........you lose the money you won....by increasing your exposure at the table
Sharp cats ( pro players) have always one foot pointed towards the door..That what I was taught by Jon Patrivck and has not failed me for over 30 years, Besides I pissed off many dealers when I left the table with winnings or or a small loss or to make matters worse for them when I walked with a push Yes a push but my MM told me so to leave. Nuff said.
Beat `em at their own game. It`s right in front of you .........at a B& M casino with a live dealer at the roulette wheel.
Let the mathboyzzz worry about the house edgae
Nathan Detroit
Quote from: Tamino on Dec 13, 11:08 AM 2015
Let the mathboyzzz worry about the house edgae
Nathan Detroit
Haha
LOL. For advocating hit-n-run a few years ago some guys here were ready to burn me on a stake. At least were trying to convince everyone that one who supports hit-n-run can't be a Mod.
The funny thing is that one of those guys told everyone that he plays hit-n-run in casino. Of course he did not use the cursed term. Just described it.
Quote from: iggiv on Dec 13, 11:13 AM 2015
LOL. For advocating hit-n-run a few years ago some guys here were ready to burn me on a stake. At least were trying to convince everyone that one who supports hit-n-run can't be a Mod.
The funny thing is that one of those guys told everyone that he plays hit-n-run in casino. Of course he did not use the cursed term. Just described it.
This is one of few subjects I'm on the fence for, honestly. I think I see both sides of the argument.
My POINT (which maybe is not being understood) is not hit & run per se, rather, how does it (if at all) carry over to the NEXT casino visit?
Another thing.....in terms of the 00 wheel (5.26%), lets say you were gonna bet 5 numbers per spin, exactly. (really makes no difference how many numbers)
Spin #1....5.26%
vs.
Spin #500....also 5.26%?
Question being, spin #1 is exactly the same? If it is the same, then hit & run is a fallacy??
Ken
Its like this
You know you have a system that works. But you also know you can have a session from hell
So if your up 200 fast....you hit....you run....it HAS merit
The house edge: If you wanna dance you gotta pay the fiddler.
it is not about house edge. It's about your experience as a real player. Take Tamino for example. The well known fact is that most ot the players are ahead at some point of time, then come to lose it. You know it and you know you must stop.
Because of consistent breaking this rule by general public i guess casinos usually make more than just a house edge percentage.
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 11:25 AM 2015
This is one of few subjects I'm on the fence for, honestly. I think I see both sides of the argument.
My POINT (which maybe is not being understood) is not hit & run per se, rather, how does it (if at all) carry over to the NEXT casino visit?
Another thing.....in terms of the 00 wheel (5.26%), lets say you were gonna bet 5 numbers per spin, exactly. (really makes no difference how many numbers)
Spin #1....5.26%
vs.
Spin #500....also 5.26%?
Question being, spin #1 is exactly the same? If it is the same, then hit & run is a fallacy??
Ken
if you dont have physical advantage over the wheel and you hope to win all the time with some method you believe that roulette is beatable on a long run without using physics. It's doomed.
Another decent factor I forgot about, thanks. I have read that around 70% of gamblers are up at some point.
The part they always leave out.....are they counting being up $5? (lol)
Anyways, could that stat also contribute AGAINST not practicing hit & run? If we all did hit & run, would the stat STILL be 70%? Nope.
Ken
Mr J
Yes while at the casino 60 % ( or 70% ) of gamblers are ahead at one time or another but 90 % gi them give it all back.
Quote from: Tamino on Dec 13, 12:50 PM 2015
Mr J
Yes while at the casino 60 % ( or 70% ) of gamblers are ahead at one time or another but 90 % gi them give it all back.
I agree.
If more people practiced a style similar to hit & run, would that stat STILL be 90% (giving it back)?
How could it be? They would be in their car driving home. A person can not take both sides on this.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 01:00 PM 2015
I agree.
If more people practiced a style similar to hit & run, would that stat STILL be 90% (giving it back)?
How could it be? They would be in their car driving home. A person can not take both sides on this.
Ken
If a large percentage are up but give it back by staying then of course hit and run has its foundation
Winnings should never be replayed. They should not become part of the session`s bankroll.
"If a large percentage are up but give it back by staying" >>> and that is the stat put forward by almost ALL pro's, either from articles or interviews. Somebody is right and somebody is wrong on this.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 01:10 PM 2015
"If a large percentage are up but give it back by staying" >>> and that is the stat put forward by almost ALL pro's, either from articles or interviews. Somebody is right and somebody is wrong on this.
Ken
What about those that leave while ahead, but give it back on their next visit, or the visit after that, or the next year?
Now....for the big question no one has addressed.
WHEN (how soon?) does the clock start over? Meaning, you did your hit & run, you left +250.
Returning when? 24 hours later? 17 hours later? Two weeks later? Two hours later? What about leaving one casino and going across the street to another? Does a *NEW SESSION* of hit & run start over 10 minutes later? Could it be per wheel (not per casino)?
Ken
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 01:13 PM 2015
What about those that leave while ahead, but give it back on their next visit, or the visit after that, or the next year?
Then they would be part of the 30%. I read a stat somewhere (gonna have to try & find it), when going to the casino, you are only suppose to play "X" number of spins (cant remember the number).
Dont gauge it in terms of time (busier it is, the slower the spins) we are suppose to keep track of every spin. When we get to that point, leave, regardless if up or down or in the middle of a progression etc.
At a certain point (looking at my chart link), the H.E. creeps up on you faster and faster. If I had to GUESS?....... 150 spins, leave?
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 01:24 PM 2015
At a certain point (looking at my chart link), the H.E. creeps up on you faster and faster. If I had to GUESS?....... 150 spins, leave?
This seems odd, what's stopping it from creeping up on you fast from the first spin? I'll try to answer that myself - if you're up then your luck hasn't averaged out yet, so the longer you stay the more change there is of that happening, and once that happens you'll see the HE that's actually been there all along, but now taking you for 180 spins instead of 80 (if you'd left after 80 spins).
I will admit one thing.
Last year I played a hit and run marty.....$10 units. Everyday baccarat machine a few bets and airball roulette a few bets.
I thought i was invincible. ID be in and out, 30 minutes.
One day I JUST SO HAPPENED to hit the baccarat machine where my marty failed. CLEANED house.
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 01:41 PM 2015
This seems odd, what's stopping it from creeping up on you fast from the first spin? I'll try to answer that myself - if you're up then your luck hasn't averaged out yet, so the longer you stay the more change there is of that happening, and once that happens you'll see the HE that's actually been there all along, but now taking you for 180 spins instead of 80 (if you'd left after 80 spins).
Somewhere in this thread, I had asked....then are the hundreds and hundreds of articles (from pro's) wrong? I'm not saying I'm right, I'm only asking. >> "The longer you stay & keep playing, the more likely you will NOT walk out with a profit" Do you disagree with this? YES or NO?
Ken
If you say you agree with it, does that become hit & run? Yes or no and why?
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 01:46 PM 2015
"The longer you stay & keep playing, the more likely you will NOT walk out with a profit" Do you disagree with this? YES or NO?
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 01:48 PM 2015
If you say you agree with it, does that become hit & run? Yes or no and why?
Obviously the longer you stay (i.e. number of spins you play), the more you are likely to lose, and not make a profit, but that also doesn't guarantee you'll be in profit after any specific number of spins either, and that spin count doesn't ever stop or reset for your specific system or method, and I'll explain why - if you stand a two percent chance of losing your bankroll every 60 spin session, that doesn't change, forever, so each time you sit down, there's a two percent chance you could lose. If you play 100 "hit and run" 60 spin sessions, you're seriously pushing your luck, waiting for the average to catch up to you, and that stays the same for the life of your system. So as I saw mentioned somewhere on this forum, a hit and run system should only be played once, and never again.
IMO
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 02:05 PM 2015
Obviously the longer you stay (i.e. number of spins you play), the more you are likely to lose, and not make a profit, but that also doesn't guarantee you'll be in profit after any specific number of spins either, and that spin count doesn't ever stop or reset for your specific system or method, and I'll explain why - if you stand a two percent chance of losing your bankroll every 60 spin session, that doesn't change, forever, so each time you sit down, there's a two percent chance you could lose. If you play 100 "hit and run" 60 spin sessions, you're seriously pushing your luck, waiting for the average to catch up to you, and that stays the same for the life of your system. So as I saw mentioned somewhere on this forum, a hit and run system should only be played once, and never again.
IMO
Yes, I should say spins, not stay. I never once used the word...guarantee. So you agree, the longer you stay, the more you are likely to lose (your words). The opposite of that is....do NOT stay long, correct? By definition, is THAT hit & run? Thats all I'm asking.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 02:15 PM 2015
Yes, I should say spins, not stay. I never once used the word...guarantee. So you agree, the longer you stay, the more you are likely to lose (your words). The opposite of that is....do NOT stay long, correct? By definition, is THAT hit & run? Thats all I'm asking.
Ken
I think the definition of "long" is what you're looking for here? How many spins is "long"? About 150 according you your guess based on the article you read, for RG 30 spins might be considered long.
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 02:29 PM 2015
I think the definition of "long" is what you're looking for here? How many spins is "long"? About 150 according you your guess based on the article you read, for RG 30 spins might be considered long.
:yawn:
Ill respond to that. I define long as over an hour. When i test i test in 75 spin sets
And i consider a method a good one if the results are similar in all 75 spin tests.
Then i can guage if i can HIT AND RUN
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 02:29 PM 2015
I think the definition of "long" is what you're looking for here? How many spins is "long"? About 150 according you your guess based on the article you read, for RG 30 spins might be considered long.
I'll simply re-word it. What is YOUR definition of hit & run? It does not mean you endorse it, I'm only asking. Maybe number of spins should not be included, I dont know?
EXAMPLE.....lets say I am using $15 units and playing only three numbers per spin. We'll call this luck I guess....within 12 spins, I am up over $1,000. Time to leave so I dont end up giving it back.
12 spins is nothing really but I think we can both agree, it is a "short" period of spins (time) to play? How would this not be called hit & run? By leaving now, I am part of the 30% and NOT part of the 70%. Thats a smart choice, not a bad choice.
Ken
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 13, 02:32 PM 2015
:yawn:
Ill respond to that. I define long as over an hour. When i test i test in 75 spin sets
And i consider a method a good one if the results are similar in all 75 spin tests.
Then i can guage if i can HIT AND RUN
Thats tricky. I dont agree (I try not to, lol) with gauging terms by TIME.
CASINO >>
Only you playing = around 45 spins per hour (imo)
Table is jammed up = 20-30 spins per hour (imo)
SHORT and LONG can mean two different things.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 02:44 PM 2015
Thats tricky. I dont agree (I try not to, lol) with gauging terms by TIME.
CASINO >>
Only you playing = around 45 spins per hour (imo)
Table is jammed up = 20-30 spins per hour (imo)
SHORT and LONG can mean two different things.
Ken
No doubt. I play airball mostly. 60 spins an hour?
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 02:39 PM 2015
I'll simply re-word it. What is YOUR definition of hit & run? It does not mean you endorse it, I'm only asking. Maybe number of spins should not be included, I dont know?
EXAMPLE.....lets say I am using $15 units and playing only three numbers per spin. We'll call this luck I guess....within 12 spins, I am up over $1,000. Time to leave so I dont end up giving it back.
12 spins is nothing really but I think we can both agree, it is a "short" period of spins (time) to play? How would this not be called hit & run? By leaving now, I am part of the 30% and NOT part of the 70%. Thats a good thing, not a bad thing.
Ken
Ok, if I was going to play a "hit and run" system, I'd define the no. of spins I'd play based on the odds of losing the progression or whatever, so it would different for each system. For example if I worked out that once every 200 spins a killer combination of spins is due, I might play 1/8th of that, so 25 spins so I don't get near probability.
But, when someone else mentions it, I picture a system that you have to quit while ahead because it's going to lose more than it wins in the long term, regardless of the number of spins, otherwise why quit.
That's my opinion, I know it doesn't your question, sorry.
We'll use 70% as the standard (est.)
When we walk into/out the casino.....we are either gonna be part of the 30% group (this should be our goal) or the 70% group, not to mention, the 90% group that ends up giving it back. This is all true regardless of which game we are going to play.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 02:54 PM 2015
We'll use 70% as the standard (est.)
When we walk into/out the casino.....we are either gonna be part of the 30% group (this should be our goal) or the 70% group, not to mention, the 90% group that ends up giving it back. This is all true regardless of which game we are going to play.
Ken
Uh, I think I'd rather be part of the 70%? Didn't you say 70% are up at some point? That would mean the remaining 30% are never up. I'd rather aim at being up at some point. Unless I read it incorrectly, which is entirely possible.
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 02:51 PM 2015
Ok, if I was going to play a "hit and run" system, I'd define the no. of spins I'd play based on the odds of losing the progression or whatever, so it would different for each system. For example if I worked out that once every 200 spins a killer combination of spins is due, I might play 1/8th of that, so 25 spins so I don't get near probability.
But, when someone else mentions it, I picture a system that you have to quit while ahead because it's going to lose more than it wins in the long term, regardless of the number of spins, otherwise why quit.
That's my opinion, I know it doesn't your question, sorry.
Its a decent answer, thanks. YOU SAID >> "otherwise why quit"? This is in probably 8 of the posts here. You should QUIT so you dont become part of the 90% stat (giving it back).
These stats (30%, 70%, 90%) are not just some silly off the wall BS numbers a person came up with. These stats are real for a REASON. Everything we do at the casino is part of a stat. Right down to whether you ate there or not? Did you use valet parking or not, etc? All stats.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:01 PM 2015
Its a decent answer, thanks. YOU SAID >> "otherwise why quit"? This is in probably 8 of the posts here. You should QUIT so you dont become part of the 90% stat (giving it back).
These stats (30%, 70%, 90%) are not just some silly off the wall BS numbers a person came up with. These stats are real for a REASON. Everything we do at the casino is part of a stat. Right down to whether you ate there or not? Did you use valley parking or not, est? All stats.
Ken
I agree, and what that stat tells me is that the vast majority, if not all players, are not using winning systems.
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 03:00 PM 2015
Uh, I think I'd rather be part of the 70%? Didn't you say 70% are up at some point? That would mean the remaining 30% are never up. I'd rather aim at being up at some point. Unless I read it incorrectly, which is entirely possible.
oops, being apart of the 70% (should be our goal)....THEN LEAVE.
Ken
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 03:03 PM 2015
I agree, and what that stat tells me is that the vast majority, if not all players, are not using winning systems.
Dont know. That 70% stat (being up) is never really broken down by luck vs. a decent method. The END stat (unfortunately) is that most (sometimes myself included) will NOT use hit & run and end up staying. Why? I WANT MORE!! (lol)
Yes, sometimes it pays off but more often, I lose my profit. That cant only be a coincidence.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:13 PM 2015
The END stat (unfortunately) is that most (sometimes myself included) will NOT use hit & run and end up staying. Why? I WANT MORE!! (lol)
Yes, sometimes it pays off but more often, I lose my profit. That cant only be a coincidence.
Ken
That's the vice. The dopamine rush when you're winning.
If you have a system that can beat the HE, it wouldn't make sense to quit though.
And if the majority started using that system, those stats would look different, and casinos would need to change something to counter that system, which would likely bring those stats back in line with what they are now.
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 03:18 PM 2015
That's the vice. The dopamine rush when you're winning.
If you have a system that can beat the HE, it wouldn't make sense to quit though.
And if the majority started using that system, those stats would look different, and casinos would need to change something to counter that system, which would likely bring those stats back in line with what they are now.
Okay, lets say you dont have a great method. I like to use grades...we'll say its a C+ method.
In the first 80 spins, I am up. Do I care that I got lucky? Should I give my profit back to the dealer because it was probably only "luck"? Of course not. Do you have to have a method that beats the H.E. after 600 spins BUT it does well under 200 spins? Back to our same issue at hand....if up EARLY (regardless of how/why), the player should quit.
BTW, you sure sound like a familiar poster I know (been doing this a long time).
Ken
This is human nature
Many of the strategies i played won EVERY session with a 20% win goal. My quads for example
But ultimately failed because i wanted more
The whole human thing sucks
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:29 PM 2015
BTW, you sure sound like a familiar poster I know (been doing this a long time).
Ken
A brand new member that joins and immediately attacks a system and one specific member is always a retread. A long time member using a new username
*cough cough*
Fits all criteria. See grassroots thread
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 13, 03:32 PM 2015
This is human nature
Many of the strategies i played won EVERY session with a 20% win goal. My quads for example
But ultimately failed because i wanted more
The whole human thing sucks
My biggest drop >> I was up around 8K (it took 11 hours, not sure how many spins)...lost the 8K plus 5K of my own. I stayed away from sharp objects for a week. Point being again, THE LONGER YOU PLAY etc etc etc etc.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:38 PM 2015
My biggest drop >> I was up around 8K (it took 11 hours, not sure how many spins)...lost the 8K plus 5K of my own. I stayed away from sharp objects for a week. Point being again, THE LONGER YOU PLAY etc etc etc etc.
Ken
We have all been there
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:29 PM 2015
Okay, lets say you dont have a great method. I like to use grades...we'll say its a C+ method.
In the first 80 spins, I am up. Do I care that I got lucky? Should I give my profit back to the dealer because it was probably only "luck"? Of course not. Do you have to have a method that beats the H.E. after 600 spins BUT it does well under 200 spins? Back to our same issue at hand....if up EARLY (regardless of how/why), the player should quit.
BTW, you sure sound like a familiar poster I know (been doing this a long time).
Ken
If I knew I was using a C+ system, and was up, then yes quitting is an excellent idea. If you've got and A or A+ system, then you expect to be up and continue playing. (I don't have such a system and probably never will).
I can't help sounding like another poster, is he/she possibly from this part of the planet (South Africa)?
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 13, 03:34 PM 2015
A brand new member that joins and immediately attacks a system and one specific member is always a retread. A long time member using a new username
*cough cough*
Fits all criteria. See grassroots thread
This whole "attack" definition is a bit fuzzy. Do I think he is NEW to roulette boards? No.
Ken
I digress
A new me you will see. No arguments. I will ignore all negativity. And if someone says something cannot work with no test results it will be disregarded.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 13, 03:34 PM 2015
A brand new member that joins and immediately attacks a system and one specific member is always a retread. A long time member using a new username
*cough cough*
Fits all criteria. See grassroots thread
Uh, RG I provided you with test data, you attacked me because it didn't agree with what you wanted to see.
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 03:42 PM 2015
Uh, RG I provided you with test data, you attacked me because it didn't agree with what you wanted to see.
I will not argue
All i will say is this. Why must people make new names and pretend to be new
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:40 PM 2015
This whole "attack" definition is a bit fuzzy. Do I think he is NEW to roulette boards? No.
Ken
This is in fact my fist roulette board membership. The last forum I was active on was a local sports betting forum and that was a few years ago.
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 13, 03:40 PM 2015
If I knew I was using a C+ system, and was up, then yes quitting is an excellent idea. If you've got and A or A+ system, then you expect to be up and continue playing. (I don't have such a system and probably never will).
I can't help sounding like another poster, is he/she possibly from this part of the planet (South Africa)?
Yeah, I can bend on that. With a known ....A or A+ (or even A-) method (not system), why leave? Which can start another damn thread (no time for that). Is every method *EXACTLY* the same in regards to end results? Is one method BETTER than another? Geez, my head is spinning now.
This is where I leave you. Packer game is on in 45 minutes and I still have some cooking to do.
Ken
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 13, 03:44 PM 2015
I will not argue
All i will say is this. Why must people make new names and pretend to be new
Then neither will I.
But no, Im not someone else, surely the web admin can check my ip address, and screen resolution, and the browser I'm using to very this, if it's that important.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 13, 03:42 PM 2015
I digress
A new me you will see. No arguments. I will ignore all negativity. And if someone says something cannot work with no test results it will be disregarded.
Do we need test results for this....my new method (joking)....after a hit (trigger) from 30-36, bet all even numbers except the 2 & 18. Its a sure winner. I dont need test results to know this is a losing method. Not picking on you RG, just sayin.
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:50 PM 2015
Do we need test results for this....my new method (joking)....after a hit (trigger) from 30-36, bet all even numbers except the 2 & 18. Its a sure winner. I dont need test results to know this is a losing method. Not picking on you RG, just sayin.
Ken
;D
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 13, 03:45 PM 2015
Yeah, I can bend on that. With a known ....A or A+ (or even A-) method (not system), why leave? Which can start another damn thread (no time for that). Is every method *EXACTLY* the same in regards to end results? Is one method BETTER than another? Geez, my head is spinning now.
This is where I leave you. Packer game is on in 45 minutes and I still have some cooking to do.
Ken
I would hazard a guess and say all "flat betting" is the same regarding end results, and progressions will lose slower or faster or not. The end result will be 0 bankroll either way I suppose. So a method that gives you more game time (spins) might be considered better. I'm just thinking out loud and writing it here. Enjoy your game.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Dec 13, 03:32 PM 2015
This is human nature
Many of the strategies i played won EVERY session with a 20% win goal. My quads for example
But ultimately failed because i wanted more
The whole human thing sucks
GREED kicks in when you win quickly early. The number of times I have doubled my BR within 4-6 spins and tell myself to leave, but instead I stay and start missing and by doing so have to stay longer to get back to the double BR position. Crazy but greed is a hard emotion to control.
Quote from: button on Dec 13, 07:11 PM 2015greed is a hard emotion to control.
That's why it's good to gamble with at least one
other person to help keep Win-Targets/Stop-Losses imo.
STILL for the anti hit & run crew....I'll repeat my QUESTION >>
A) Isn't the DEFINITION of hit & run, to play for a SHORT period of time then leave? (it does not mean you endorse it).
vs.
B) Makes NO difference if you get out quickly BUT dont play for too long, the H.E. will catch up to you. By all means, limit your exposure !!
I dont see how a person can have BOTH opinions?
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 15, 03:27 PM 2015
STILL for the anti hit & run crew....I'll repeat my QUESTION >>
A) Isn't the DEFINITION of hit & run, to play for a SHORT period of time then leave? (it does not mean you endorse it).
vs.
B) Makes NO difference if you get out quickly BUT dont play for too long, the H.E. will catch up to you. By all means, limit your exposure !!
I dont see how a person can have BOTH opinions?
Ken
Most (or all?) betselections will fail in the long run, only thing i've seen survive 10 000 spins is a 2 numbers bet. (1 split) Therefore, to keep a realistic wingoal(and stoploss) is a good idea...
2 numbers? .....Hmmm......no kidding?
Ken
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 15, 04:02 PM 2015
2 numbers? .....Hmmm......no kidding?
Ken
Yes. one split. I did even post it in the humor-section! :D
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=14838.0 (link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=14838.0)
Quote from: MrJ on Dec 15, 03:27 PM 2015
STILL for the anti hit & run crew....I'll repeat my QUESTION >>
A) Isn't the DEFINITION of hit & run, to play for a SHORT period of time then leave? (it does not mean you endorse it).
vs.
B) Makes NO difference if you get out quickly BUT dont play for too long, the H.E. will catch up to you. By all means, limit your exposure !!
I dont see how a person can have BOTH opinions?
Ken
What is your opinion?
Maybe it's difficult to answer due to the oxymoron in (B),
"Makes NO difference if you get out quickly" vs
"dont play for too long, the H.E. will catch up to you" If you remove the first part then both (A) and (B) are could be classed as h&r, and if you remove the last part then (B) is just the opposite of (A).
(ps. I saw a graph on wizard of odds, I think, that supports what you mentioned earlier in the thread re the no. of spins to play to avoid HE.)
The most interesting case of Hit n Run I had the pleasure to witness happened while I was at a table betting Red and Black. A group of chinese gamblers (not sure if their racial or ethnic group is relevant to the story but anyway) suddenly appeared and started betting BIG on all the numbers 28 to 36 of that specific table. And I mean BIG: maximum bets on the straights, splits, quads, and the last three streets. I knew them from the Baccarat tables, but what is interesting is that roulette table sits well away from the baccarat tables, with the bar and cashier in the middle. The third dozen started hitting spin after spin and they made around 15000 euros in about twenty minutes, according to some punter. The crowd and the floor managers were all over them. Then, as suddenly as they appeared, they went back to the baccarat tables ;D
Quote from: Tacwell on Dec 16, 02:03 AM 2015
What is your opinion?
Maybe it's difficult to answer due to the oxymoron in (B), "Makes NO difference if you get out quickly" vs "dont play for too long, the H.E. will catch up to you" If you remove the first part then both (A) and (B) are could be classed as h&r, and if you remove the last part then (B) is just the opposite of (A).
(ps. I saw a graph on wizard of odds, I think, that supports what you mentioned earlier in the thread re the no. of spins to play to avoid HE.)
(SORRY, was busy).......I saw the same graph as you (I think). As much as I cant stand M.S., I do support most of his stats. Same message again.....the number of spins to play (then leave) to AVOID the H.E.
If it didn't matter, there should be no number of spins to AVOID !!!!!
My opinion as you asked?
ANSWER >>> I dont know (lol), I really dont. I'm torn on this subject. Maybe 65% I do believe in playing for a short period, then leave. The other 35%, it makes no difference, dont know.
My entire *POINT* of this thread was quite simple... do not say, hit & run makes no difference *AND* tell me, only play for a short period of time before the H.E. catches my a**.
Ken
OK, so from what I'm reading here, "hit and run" means do not stay in one place too long. That is certainly a different approach than what I've been doing. I've always thought you stuck around to figure the mathematics.
What kind of "mathematics"? Roulette is mathematically unbeatable.
if you find the way around this fact you could wipe this guy's nose
link:://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/challenge/ (link:://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/challenge/)
Quote from: Crapshooter on Dec 24, 01:11 AM 2015
OK, so from what I'm reading here, "hit and run" means do not stay in one place too long. That is certainly a different approach than what I've been doing. I've always thought you stuck around to figure the mathematics.
"doesn't my CLOCK (its a term I use) start over FRESH?", asked MrJ stroking his long, silver beard.
Just my opinion (I have not been up the mountain!), but no. Your clock is actually a stop watch and you just pause it at five minutes and re-start it the next time you want to play.
To those who proclaim that, while they were "running", the 0/00 came five times in twelve spins--and they missed them all! Hear me now and believe me later, if you play long enough you will be "hitting" while the 0/00 beats you to a pulp.
Samster
"Hear me now and believe me later" >> Thats a good line, I'll be using it.
Ken
Surely it is all down to the system you are using, how much confidence you have in it and also the reason why you play roulette - see my recent thread re goals.
If you have the HG (A+) then you should be able to play all day, all week, all month and all year without losing your bankroll, so hit and run is irrelevant.
If you have a B- system that will eventually eat your bankroll playing hit and run tactics will just lengthen the time it takes for your money to leave you.
Nick
you have never thought that hit-n-run can be embedded into the system? The same way let's say you bet last dozen for example. The same way you can skip certain amount of spins. Why not? Is it worse than betting last dozen?
I am so surprised at people believing in HG and arguing to hit-n-run. Even Wizard of Odds recognizes that hit-n-run can win, one of conditions of his challenge of billion spins winning is placing bet on EVERY SPIN. if this did not matter to him then he would not place this condition. That's a fact that Brett Morton, John Patrick and others advocate hit-n-run. Are you smarter than all these people? Have you ever been to real casino? Look how people lose fortune being ahead first but then after that trying to win every spin for long time, and look how smarter people win playing a few spins, getting ahead and leaving. I saw so many times people saying "i was ahead a few hundred, now i lost thousand".
With some people this idea of some HG always winning is like religious dogma. They would probably be ready to die for it.
The funny thing is that some of these people do use hit-n-run tactics in real life, but hate the term for some reason. Looks like there is some physiological reason behind this. Something like kids which love to write letters to Santa Clause and don't want to believe he does not really exist.
Look here. There is no better authority on gambling than Wizard of Odds.
link:://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/challenge/ (link:://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/challenge/)
"bet of at least 1 unit must be placed on every trial"
Why the hell he did not write "you can skip as many trials as you want"? Why his condition includes betting on every trial? Huh?
Because he knows that hit-n-run may work, that's why.
link:s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Shackleford (link:s://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Shackleford)
Quote from: iggiv on Jan 05, 10:45 AM 2016
you have never thought that hit-n-run can be embedded into the system? The same way let's say you bet last dozen for example. The same way you can skip certain amount of spins. Why not? Is it worse than betting last dozen?
I am so surprised at people believing in HG and arguing to hit-n-run. Even Wizard of Odds recognizes that hit-n-run can win, one of conditions of his challenge of billion spins winning is placing bet on EVERY SPIN. if this did not matter to him then he would not place this condition. That's a fact that Brett Morton, John Patrick and others advocate hit-n-run. Are you smarter than all these people? Have you ever been to real casino? Look how people lose fortune being ahead first but then after that trying to win every spin for long time, and look how smarter people win playing a few spins, getting ahead and leaving. I saw so many times people saying "i was ahead a few hundred, now i lost thousand".
With some people this idea of some HG always winning is like religious dogma. They would probably be ready to die for it.
The funny thing is that some of these people do use hit-n-run tactics in real life, but hate the term for some reason. Looks like there is some physiological reason behind this. Something like kids which love to write letters to Santa Clause and don't want to believe he does not really exist.
+++++++++ 1
Personally I'm not a fan of hit and run but don't think people who like it are wrong.
See....I believe the numbers are random so it's pointless purposely missing a few out...be it HE or virtual betting...to return to a random number.
Saying that...I don't always play continuously, but mostly do. I will skip a few until I see favourable conditions.
I wish someone would care to actually define HR and explain where the benefit is.
One could even say if there is a benefit to HR it's because one has reduced the HE in your favour.
You can't just say it has done so. How has it done so?
Edit...sorry...when I say favourable conditions...I mean the tables too full or too many chips. In other words I don't care if I miss a few spins....the next spin is random.
Quote from: iggiv on Jan 05, 10:45 AM 2016
you have never thought that hit-n-run can be embedded into the system? The same way let's say you bet last dozen for example. The same way you can skip certain amount of spins. Why not? Is it worse than betting last dozen?
I am so surprised at people believing in HG and arguing to hit-n-run. Even Wizard of Odds recognizes that hit-n-run can win, one of conditions of his challenge of billion spins winning is placing bet on EVERY SPIN. if this did not matter to him then he would not place this condition. That's a fact that Brett Morton, John Patrick and others advocate hit-n-run. Are you smarter than all these people? Have you ever been to real casino? Look how people lose fortune being ahead first but then after that trying to win every spin for long time, and look how smarter people win playing a few spins, getting ahead and leaving. I saw so many times people saying "i was ahead a few hundred, now i lost thousand".
With some people this idea of some HG always winning is like religious dogma. They would probably be ready to die for it.
The funny thing is that some of these people do use hit-n-run tactics in real life, but hate the term for some reason. Looks like there is some physiological reason behind this. Something like kids which love to write letters to Santa Clause and don't want to believe he does not really exist.
That`s why I have adapted the methods of John Patrick They never let me down.i n one of the 2 VLS message boards someone posted also excerpts of Brett Moron`s book.
ND...removed
It shall read BRETT MORTON !!!
Sorry.
Hi there. I'm new to these forums but like you guys have a fascination with roulette. I've been reading your posts and really enjoying learning so much.
I'd like to ask about this hit n run type of play. I appreciate your experience and expertise with most things roulette.
If I was successful at hitting and making a decent profit, say $300 to $500 per day. And smart enough to take it rather than give it all back early on, say within the first hour of play. Would the casino catch on to me and try to stop me from playing. Or would all those $100 notes pouring into the machines from other players be enough of a distraction to allow this to go on daily? This is hypothetical of course but possible I'm sure. I hope anyway ;D
Hi Lucylou,
Welcome to the forum.
We have all heard stories about online casino's being your best friend whilst you are losing and then turning their backs on you when you start to win so if you are playing online be very careful before you deposit your hard earned cash - always live wheels, never RNG.
If you are playing at your local venue then they have more to lose by turning you away as that type of news travels fast in town, however if you do start to win big they will be watching you very carefully.
In both cases it's much better to win smaller amounts from different tables and even different casino's so as not to draw attention to yourself should you be so lucky to have a system that works all the time.
If you don't have a system already there are plenty of ideas on this forum - the key is to do all your own testing (either on paper or using very low value bets) and build confidence that the system is right for your type of play - don't take other peoples word.
Good luck
Nick
Thanks Nick. But is $300 to $500 every day a lot? Would it ring alarm bells? I'm thinking they would think that it can't last forever anyway. And that's probably true to. But if I'm lucky to keep a good streak going then I'm hoping they wouldn't bother with me. 8)
No, it's not a lot, no self respecting casino will be bothered with that, and neither should any bookie, when you get limited it's time to cross that bookie off your list, if you get asked to leave a roulette table, it's prolly cos you've had too many whiskeys.
I'll drink to that. :thumbsup:
I've been watching players for a while and quite often I see bundles of $100 notes being fed into machines. A lot of the time I see huge four digit balances. Does this type of betting win long term? It's intriguing to watch a huge bet all around one number then it hits. Are you in front long term? Not sure if I have the guts to try it but I see winners all the time. Tempting???
i guess many things depend on concrete situation. If the place is very busy and many players regularly win big then who will pay attention at one guy as so many are on the background.If they don't track you on consistent basis how they know how much you win and lose? But if the place is not very busy and the staff is not busy either and management very pushy then who knows.
Quote from: Lucylou on Jan 19, 03:04 PM 2016
Thanks Nick. But is $300 to $500 every day a lot? Would it ring alarm bells? I'm thinking they would think that it can't last forever anyway. And that's probably true to. But if I'm lucky to keep a good streak going then I'm hoping they wouldn't bother with me. 8)
Let's say this casino has huge profits and everyone is happy why anyone would bother? But if something goes on and for some reason casino starts losing profits, then what happens? They will start to look for a reason. Some players should have made them lose for some reason. Then they may watch and suspect you as well.
.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jan 20, 10:50 AM 2016
LL, I hate to be the voice of ruin, disaster and cynicism...but,
I would worry a whole lot more about actually winning the $300 to $500 per day than what the casino would do if you did.
Let's get real: If you could win that kind of money, you could just jet around the world and never play the same casino in the same month!
OK....flame on!
TwoCat
OOPS!
The sharp Wise guys in Las Vegas figure taking not more take than $ 300 at one casino then moving to the next one .
Hmm...would love to know what the actual word was. Lol
Anyway. I don't think that amount is enough to go jetting around the world and that type of answer doesn't help me at all. I'm talking about staying in the one place and causing a red flag if it were possible. I don't think it's a huge amount compared to the takings but no one likes to lose, not even casinos.
Quote from: Lucylou on Jan 20, 01:32 PM 2016
Hmm...would love to know what the actual word was. Lol
Anyway. I don't think that amount is enough to go jetting around the world and that type of answer doesn't help me at all. I'm talking about staying in the one place and causing a red flag if it were possible. I don't think it's a huge amount compared to the takings but no one likes to lose, not even casinos.
What would worry the chicken casinos is , if you are a constant winner, then people watch you and start to win as well. Just like bookmakers they dont like winners, so they bar them, call themselves gambling establishments, more like wankers
Now we're getting somewhere. I thought it was just me being paranoid.
This may be true but it's hard for people to gather round the video star roulette chairs and most don't know what you're doing anyway except the person next to you, or the one standing behind looking over your shoulder ( don't you hate that). Also it's not that huge a deal to others a few hundred.
I wonder if by putting your member card in the machine they start looking at regular winnings? Back to being paranoid!!!
Quote from: Lucylou on Jan 20, 02:08 PM 2016
Now we're getting somewhere. I thought it was just me being paranoid.
This may be true but it's hard for people to gather round the video star roulette chairs and most don't know what you're doing anyway except the person next to you, or the one standing behind looking over your shoulder ( don't you hate that). Also it's not that huge a deal to others a few hundred.
I wonder if by putting your member card in the machine they start looking at regular winnings? Back to being paranoid!!!
In uk bookmakers playing FOBT's the crac cocaine of the High street, only because the people playing the machines are like plasterers,know idea how to play roulette,just throw chips on the screen every where, now these plasterers ask me what i'm doing as i'm on the machine with clipboard recording each spin.
Time after time they ask, but do they listen.
So people will watch you,some will ask what your doing, but it will be like your talking in riddles.
Now i have to log on at the machine to open up £50.00 plus spins, so i guess they could be watching, but these machines are aledgedly verified by the gaming commission so would they let them cheat ?
Quote from: Lucylou on Jan 20, 02:08 PM 2016
I wonder if by putting your member card in the machine they start looking at regular winnings? Back to being paranoid!!!
They did to me and I never use my players card at the local casino any more.
I do use a players card at a casino that is an hour away but I only play there every two months, and usually only walk away with about $100 in winnings for the day at the blackjack tables. This gives me their comps for their live shows, one of which I will be going to this weekend.
-Celtic
According to one casino executive the casinos don`t worry about people winning big. They will eventually give it back to them.
Remember: FORTUNA is fickle she soon ask back what she has given.
This is what I'm talkin bout, right.
Ok I'm leaving my card out from now on. Big brother can look elsewhere. That's for pussies anyway who need free parking and meaningless other free stuff.
Thanks guys for the insight. 8)