So, there has been some debate of late about Bet Selection
Some say one bet selection is no better than any other
Ive found the opposite to be true.
I find when I use a Format I do better. When I dont I lose.
Just now I spent an hour bettin on Dozens usin my own Grid System and turned 20 Units into 50
Then I just randomly bet Dozens usin same stakes and lost the 20 units in the blink of an eye
For me some bet selections are better than others.
That is all.
Twister
I firmly believe the G.U.T. is an excellent method of bet selection. It moves about, is never static. Only stays in one place a few spins.
Today I was at 840 Euro and the server jacked me around. Now at 776 or so.
The server jacking me around is just like being in business and getting a bad check. Bad things just happen.
Sam
I am not sure about this - all i can say that i know ways playing random against random that produce the same or even better results then any public known bet selection.
I test this with even money position and 12 numbers - sure it works with any kind of play and does i mention.
The thing with playing random against random you depend on lady luck with out having a feeling of control over your game plan.
When you use bet selection you also depend on lady luck, but you feel you know what you are up against with some kind of overall control over your game plan.
Cheers
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Oct 29, 09:30 AM 2012
Twister
I firmly believe the G.U.T. is an excellent method of bet selection. It moves about, is never static. Only stays in one place a few spins.
Today I was at 840 Euro and the server jacked me around. Now at 776 or so.
The server jacking me around is just like being in business and getting a bad check. Bad things just happen.
Sam
I know what you mean Sam :thumbsup:
Is it just Luck ure winning ? Time will tell :smile:
Quote from: ego on Oct 29, 09:47 AM 2012
I am not sure about this - all i can say that i know ways playing random against random that produce the same or even better results then any public known bet selection.
I test this with even money position and 12 numbers - sure it works with any kind of play and does i mention.
The thing with playing random against random you depend on lady luck with out having a feeling of control over your game plan.
When you use bet selection you also depend on lady luck, but you feel you know what you are up against with some kind of overall control over your game plan.
Cheers
Lets say in just one 1hr Session
You play with a Method on Dozens
Then you play on Dozens with no Method, say just random pickin a number out of a hat 1 2 or 3
I believe the Method, if it has Merits would win every time
Or at least over a 100 sessions would be the clear winner
Quote from: Twisteruk on Oct 29, 02:14 PM 2012
Lets say in just one 1hr Session
You play with a Method on Dozens
Then you play on Dozens with no Method, say just random pickin a number out of a hat 1 2 or 3
I believe the Method, if it has Merits would win every time
Or at least over a 100 sessions would be the clear winner
That is true. Sometimes I can play 15-20 spins and not hit any winner if I just play whatever comes into my head.
bob.
Just ask yourself why there is no method that survived in testing large number like 1M spins.
The answer is very simple. In large number of spins your bet selection meets much more representative set of spins as compared to a smaller sample and your results tend to average out to losing at HE rate or staying even at NZ wheel. The accuracy with which bet outcomes tend to confirm statistical expectations in large number of bets its just scary. What happens in smaller number of bets that reflect true playing conditions is called gambling. You can not change odds in your favor - they are fixed at HE rate or if you play NZ wheel your winnings are subject to a percentage fee like on BVNZ.
You can only hope to meet more favorable sets of spins than in 1M sample. Some players ridicule the notion of large number of spins testing but it only shows their lack of understanding of the basic rules of roulette. Testing smaller number of spins like 10k is also very useful because it shows you the fluctuations of the strike rate, probability of winning runs.... It can show you that what you thought was your HG is very likely to end up just another average method.
There is no such a thing as a losing bet selection. Each has a potential to produce profit even in a long run. Outside or inside, hot or cold numbers, flat or prog - usually everybody has a favorite approach but a real challenge is to pick a right set of spins to bet on. ;D
There are some bet selections worse than other. Hedge betting like 20 on red and 10 on black,
20 on high and 10 on low.
Cover zero when betting one EC, thinking zero is more likely to come than any of the opposite.
Playing red and hegde zero is the simular hegde as playing red and cover black 2, the difference
is just which number.
All 2/3 or more may be counted as betselection which not has the same value as other.
I understand what ure saying but I wont ever play 1,000,000 Spins
I playt around 200 (ish) spins at a time and win most sessions
I also accept the HE but that is cancelled out if ure hitting above the norm
Say ure bettin 2 dozens on a NZ wheel, its 67% of winning. But if ure in the 70%'s or higher HE means nothing
Definately bet selection (with smart money management). You don't go into business without a business plan--and gambling is definitely a business that benefits the player if you win and the casino when you lose.
Quote from: Twisteruk on Oct 30, 05:46 AM 2012
I understand what your saying but I won't ever play 1,000,000 Spins
I playt around 200 (ish) spins at a time and win most sessions
I also accept the HE but that is cancelled out if your hitting above the norm
Say your bettin 2 dozens on a NZ wheel, its 67% of winning. But if your in the 70%'s or higher HE means nothing
Its obvious that if you manage to constantly beat your average strike rate by more than HE you make profit. Just managing to constantly pick a set of 200 spins to bet on when you can do it knowing that all the sets in the long run are expected to produce a total loss its called an educated guess at best ;D
Quote from: Robeenhuut on Oct 31, 03:08 AM 2012
Its obvious that if you manage to constantly beat your average strike rate by more than HE you make profit. Just managing to constantly pick a set of 200 spins to bet on when you can do it knowing that all the sets in the long run are expected to produce a total loss its called an educated guess at best ;D
Well I disagree :smile:
It does beg the question why do you come to a Forum, that is basically about Systems and Mehods, if you have ure point of view ??
Dont get me wrong Im not havin a go but it would be like a Veggie spending time on Beef site lol
The house edge is not the problem; the problem is fluctuation/dispersion.
If the HE was all that stood between us and $$$, someone would pump a BVNZ account up to 10,000. (Yes, you pay a tax to withdraw. That's not the point.)
All we need is the profit from our hit rate to exceed the loss from our losing streaks. I am forming the opinion that the G.U.T. is nothing more than a "prescribed" educated guess that never changes form. Only the numbers themselves and quantity of numbers bet change. It is too soon to tell if my theory is right. When will it be soon enough? That is the question!!
Sam
I know from long time of playing, it does matter which way I do it. Not anyone play random, if they not use a tool for it. The human brain cant produce random numbers. That's the reason we need random.org. Ask any to write down 20 random red/black. it will never be ten of a kind, as our way of thinking is after that comes that. That's the reason people post "unlikely" series like 5,5,5,5 and never 2,12,3,23,8 despite they are equal unique. A large parts of the playing methods use our lack of think of random.
That's said, still everyone can test and see, it matter how you play, even if we never know the next outcome.
A rather scary method is for example Martingale, it has however one merit, it can stand a large
unbalance in the EC outcomes. If just about 20% of one EC comes out, and the distribution is
even, it wins playing the minor.
Other ways can deal with the distribution, but not the unbalanced hits.
Sam! Yes the fluctuation kills most of the time it goes bad, it takes a long series before the HE takes over as major cause.
Quote from: Twisteruk on Oct 31, 07:35 AM 2012
Well I disagree :smile:
It does beg the question why do you come to a Forum, that is basically about Systems and Mehods, if you have your point of view ??
don't get me wrong I'm not havin a go but it would be like a Veggie spending time on Beef site LoL
You can have a go at me. I know that most of the members will disagree with my point of view.
And i dont see any connection between my views and my being on the Forum. Maybe im bit too realistic or common sense for some people taste here. ;D You can still learn new things.
Its possible to win for some time with any bet selection which it is what i hope people do here.
HE ensures that casino makes guaranteed money in the long run from large number of players. And Sam please explain your point about BVNZ. How can you expect to make money from it if you pay 10% on your winnings? If you loose do you get 10% back? There is no point in arguing what is more important - HE or fluctuation/dispersion. HE just puts you at disadvantage from the start and you need a good fluctuation/dispersion to be ahead. 1M spins show you just what happens in the long run. And still some fail or refuse to accept the real meaning of that fact.
Quote from: Robeenhuut on Nov 02, 02:31 AM 2012
There is no point in arguing what is more important - HE or fluctuation/dispersion. HE just puts you at disadvantage from the start and you need a good fluctuation/dispersion to be ahead.
Oh there is my friend. You are
very wrong about what you just said.
You can also reduce HE using dispersion somehow , so as number of expected losses from some point, but if you just remove zero without monitoring dispersions, you will still have same dispersions as with zero on the wheel. Well same in terms of no possibility beating it with progressions, enormous non handable draw downs and touching table limits with it.
Regards
Drazen
Quote from: drazen_cro on Nov 02, 03:26 AM 2012
Oh there is my friend. You are very wrong about what you just said.
You can also reduce HE using dispersion somehow , so as number of expected losses from some point, but if you just remove zero without monitoring dispersions, you will still have same dispersions as with zero on the wheel. Well same in terms of no possibility beating it with progressions, enormous non handable draw downs and touching table limits with it.
Regards
Drazen
Hola Drazen
I guess you misunderstood my point. HE is just a fixed number and having 0 or no 0 in the mix does not affect any probability of meeting as you call it dispersion. Reducing HE means just having better than average result than expected loss in a large statistical sample.
Regards
Hmm well I guess then i got something wrong :)
Cheers
Drazen