The most simple constant winning bet - A real HG without secrets or guesswork

[darrynf]

you didnt realy explain or didnt understand what i ment.

i have no dout what you saying is true but what i want to know is, and i know the last spin isnt related to the next spin.

how often can you expect the same number to hit twice in a row out of 37 spins, maybe you cant answer this, if not thats fine.

[mr.ore]

Probability that some certain selected number hits just two times in 37 spins is

p(37, 2) = 37!/(2!*(37-2)!)*(1/37)^2*(1-1/37)^(37-2) = 0.186465

It is Bernoulli scheme formula by the way, hope I have it right. So it is 18,6% probability. For us it is interesting to know what is the probability, that it will hit two or more times.

---
p(n;m) = n!/(m!*(n-m)!)*(1/37)^m*(1-1/37)^(n-m)

with exception:
p(n;0) = (1-1/37)^n is probability it will not hit at all in n spins
----

is general formula for probability that a number will hit m times in n spins

Probability of 'u' or more hits in n spins is (1 - (p(n,0)+p(n,1)+...+p(n,u-1) ).

In case of 2 hits in 37 spins it is (1 - ( p(37,0) + p(37,1) )) =
(1-((36/37)^37+37!/(1!*(37-1)!)*(1/37)^1*(1-1/37)^(37-1)) = 0.264218

So there is a probability 26,4% that a number will hit two or more times in 37 spins. I really hope the probabilities are right.

If we split our game to a windows of 37 spins sessions, than on average we shall see this once every four sessions (1/0.264218 = 3.78 ~= 4).

[GLC]

Mr. Ore,

I'm not sure, but I think he was wanting to know the odds of at least 1 number hitting back to back in 37 spins.  Sounds like he wants to try to use Winkels progression to try to get a winning system out of betting on the last spun number in hopes that it will repeat.

Darrynf,  even if we know what the odds of a number repeating in 37 spins are, it doesn't make that much difference.  We have all read about and most of us have tested trying to win by betting for a number to repeat.  I think it's the same as picking a single number, say 10 and betting that it will show in the next 37 spins.  Most of the time it will and unless it hits toward the end of the 37 spins we will make some money.  The problem comes when we miss a few times close together and we start falling into that black hole we've all experienced.

If you do come up with something that's a long term winner, you will become the new most valuable player on the forum.

Cheers,

G

[darrynf]

i agree with you mate and i have abond the idea, as im testing something else.

my system with winkels bet.

very surprising detailes from a shit session.

[marivo]

Bankroll needed:
600 (1000) times 1 units - result -600+36 = -564 (-964)
600 (1000) * 2 Stück - Saldo -1200+72 = -1028 (-1928)
600 (1000) * 4 Stück - Saldo -2400+144 = -2056 (-3856)

so we need a BR of 2 to 4 Thousand chips.

So if I would play in BetVoyager Casino with chips of 0.01 €, i would need 20 - 40 € of bankrole (is it sufficiently safe only 20 €?) and approximately 15 min. of play for € 1 profit? And as you say:

This will never ever lose.

Right?

[winkel]

Hi marivo,

as I always say:

Test it and then decide to play or not.

@all

from today on I will test wiesbaden table TB1R daily

spins from Feb, 28th see attachement

I play #25 up to Table-limit (70 euro or 35 units)

Code Select Expand

spins prog result total
15 1 -1 -1
6 1 -1 -2
31 1 -1 -3
1 1 -1 -4
32 1 -1 -5
21 1 -1 -6
27 1 -1 -7
32 1 -1 -8
15 1 -1 -9
1 1 -1 -10
21 1 -1 -11
16 1 -1 -12
11 1 -1 -13
4 1 -1 -14
9 1 -1 -15
25 1 35 20
11 2 -2 18
9 2 -2 16
34 2 -2 14
19 2 -2 12
5 2 -2 10
5 2 -2 8
20 2 -2 6
11 2 -2 4
28 2 -2 2
17 2 -2 0
3 2 -2 -2
28 2 -2 -4
24 2 -2 -6
16 2 -2 -8
27 2 -2 -10
5 2 -2 -12
26 2 -2 -14
33 2 -2 -16
18 2 -2 -18
26 2 -2 -20
13 2 -2 -22
6 2 -2 -24
14 2 -2 -26
0 2 -2 -28
25 2 70 42
31 4 -4 38
29 4 -4 34
13 4 -4 30
27 4 -4 26
19 4 -4 22
6 4 -4 18
21 4 -4 14
35 4 -4 10
28 4 -4 6
6 4 -4 2
13 4 -4 -2
4 4 -4 -6
15 4 -4 -10
21 4 -4 -14
5 4 -4 -18
15 4 -4 -22
27 4 -4 -26
10 4 -4 -30
11 4 -4 -34
9 4 -4 -38
16 4 -4 -42
3 4 -4 -46
23 4 -4 -50
9 4 -4 -54
4 4 -4 -58
2 4 -4 -62
3 4 -4 -66
7 4 -4 -70
17 4 -4 -74
29 4 -4 -78
1 4 -4 -82
30 4 -4 -86
25 4 140 54
11 8 -8 46
5 8 -8 38
27 8 -8 30
13 8 -8 22
35 8 -8 14
3 8 -8 6
18 8 -8 -2
10 8 -8 -10
28 8 -8 -18
27 8 -8 -26
36 8 -8 -34
7 8 -8 -42
31 8 -8 -50
26 8 -8 -58
29 8 -8 -66
32 8 -8 -74
29 8 -8 -82
36 8 -8 -90
29 8 -8 -98
35 8 -8 -106
16 8 -8 -114
19 8 -8 -122
34 8 -8 -130
31 8 -8 -138
3 8 -8 -146
19 8 -8 -154
9 8 -8 -162
25 8 280 118
16 16 -16 102
17 16 -16 86
15 16 -16 70
25 16 560 630
29 32 -32 598
6 32 -32 566
14 32 -32 534
15 32 -32 502
26 32 -32 470
30 32 -32 438
22 32 -32 406
3 32 -32 374
0 32 -32 342
5 32 -32 310
5 32 -32 278
10 32 -32 246
11 32 -32 214
10 32 -32 182
26 32 -32 150
7 32 -32 118
8 32 -32 86
4 32 -32 54
12 32 -32 22
11 32 -32 -10
30 32 -32 -42
19 32 -32 -74
23 32 -32 -106
13 32 -32 -138
2 32 -32 -170
26 32 -32 -202
10 32 -32 -234
36 32 -32 -266
2 32 -32 -298
17 32 -32 -330
32 32 -32 -362
32 32 -32 -394
26 32 -32 -426
13 32 -32 -458
36 32 -32 -490
32 32 -32 -522
22 32 -32 -554
18 32 -32 -586
22 32 -32 -618
12 32 -32 -650
28 32 -32 -682
24 32 -32 -714
24 32 -32 -746
30 32 -32 -778
15 32 -32 -810
24 32 -32 -842
20 32 -32 -874
16 32 -32 -906
25 32 1120 214


max 630 units
end 214 units
first hit spin 16 +20
win limit +90 at spin 102 +118

[kawa4711]

Hi, winkel, than you for your explanation of this excellent idea

But now to the topic.

- We bet on a single number
- we know that a single number can sleep for 600 (1000) spins
-

Scenario:
- that number we bet on sleeps for 600 (1000) spins and then hits
- after that hit that number we bet on sleeps for another 600 (1000) spins and then hits
- after that hit that number we bet on sleeps for another 600 (1000) spins and then hits

Do you think this would be work on DS  ( 1-6. 7-12, 13-18, 19-24, 25-30, 31-36) ?.

If this could work can you tell the please the approx. figures for this or can we divide the numbers of betting for a single number per 6 , also 1/6 of the numbers.

With best regards

kawa4711

[winkel]

Hi Kawa,

IÃ,´m sure it doesnÃ,´t work on DS

pls read at DC-Campus my thread "link:://:.dc-campus.net/showpost.php?p=129587&postcount=51" or here link:://rouletteforum.cc/bet-selection/win-as-much-as-you-want/msg36638/#msg36638

br
winkel

[kawa4711]

thank you winkel

With best regards
kawa

[winkel]

Wiesbaden TB1R Mar,02

Yesterdays Table shows 2 numbers with the same appearance of 10: #2 and #11
#11 has hit in the last spins, so we select #2 to bet.

results:

max 1193 units
end 1193 units
first hit spin 27 +9
win limit +90 at spin 284 +1193
lowest stack: -767

Code Select Expand

spin prog result total
27 2 1 35 9
163 2 2 70 -191
219 2 4 140 -271
282 2 8 280 -487
283 2 16 560 73
284 2 32 1120 1193



[winkel]

If we had chosen #11

Code Select Expand

spin prog result total
1 31 1 -1 -1
2 33 1 -1 -2
3 6 1 -1 -3
4 34 1 -1 -4
5 7 1 -1 -5
6 24 1 -1 -6
7 27 1 -1 -7
8 7 1 -1 -8
9 9 1 -1 -9
10 35 1 -1 -10
11 0 1 -1 -11
12 31 1 -1 -12
13 17 1 -1 -13
14 14 1 -1 -14
15 1 1 -1 -15
16 0 1 -1 -16
17 5 1 -1 -17
18 29 1 -1 -18
19 33 1 -1 -19
20 21 1 -1 -20
21 20 1 -1 -21
22 34 1 -1 -22
23 15 1 -1 -23
24 16 1 -1 -24
25 35 1 -1 -25
26 9 1 -1 -26
27 2 1 -1 -27
28 26 1 -1 -28
29 16 1 -1 -29
30 19 1 -1 -30
31 17 1 -1 -31
32 14 1 -1 -32
33 20 1 -1 -33
34 23 1 -1 -34
35 14 1 -1 -35
36 6 1 -1 -36
37 12 1 -1 -37
38 3 1 -1 -38
39 10 1 -1 -39
40 24 1 -1 -40
41 33 1 -1 -41
42 1 1 -1 -42
43 0 1 -1 -43
44 11 1 35 -8
45 23 2 -2 -10
46 35 2 -2 -12
47 13 2 -2 -14
48 26 2 -2 -16
49 11 2 70 54
50 35 4 -4 50
51 19 4 -4 46
52 4 4 -4 42
53 14 4 -4 38
54 5 4 -4 34
55 22 4 -4 30
56 15 4 -4 26
57 30 4 -4 22
58 3 4 -4 18
59 15 4 -4 14
60 4 4 -4 10
61 18 4 -4 6
62 4 4 -4 2
63 25 4 -4 -2
64 25 4 -4 -6
65 25 4 -4 -10
66 25 4 -4 -14
67 31 4 -4 -18
68 20 4 -4 -22
69 14 4 -4 -26
70 1 4 -4 -30
71 32 4 -4 -34
72 6 4 -4 -38
73 29 4 -4 -42
74 9 4 -4 -46
75 31 4 -4 -50
76 31 4 -4 -54
77 5 4 -4 -58
78 21 4 -4 -62
79 30 4 -4 -66
80 9 4 -4 -70
81 22 4 -4 -74
82 7 4 -4 -78
83 23 4 -4 -82
84 5 4 -4 -86
85 21 4 -4 -90
86 4 4 -4 -94
87 31 4 -4 -98
88 22 4 -4 -102
89 30 4 -4 -106
90 31 4 -4 -110
91 8 4 -4 -114
92 17 4 -4 -118
93 26 4 -4 -122
94 8 4 -4 -126
95 30 4 -4 -130
96 12 4 -4 -134
97 11 4 140 6
98 5 8 -8 -2
99 18 8 -8 -10
100 26 8 -8 -18
101 35 8 -8 -26
102 5 8 -8 -34
103 23 8 -8 -42
104 33 8 -8 -50
105 20 8 -8 -58
106 20 8 -8 -66
107 20 8 -8 -74
108 9 8 -8 -82
109 23 8 -8 -90
110 3 8 -8 -98
111 36 8 -8 -106
112 3 8 -8 -114
113 5 8 -8 -122
114 32 8 -8 -130
115 22 8 -8 -138
116 16 8 -8 -146
117 11 8 280 134


[winkel]

todays game a short one

selected #27

Code Select Expand

c # 27 max 106
min -61


spin perm prog result total
1 30 1 -1 -1
2 9 1 -1 -2
3 26 1 -1 -3
4 4 1 -1 -4
5 14 1 -1 -5
6 15 1 -1 -6
7 29 1 -1 -7
8 12 1 -1 -8
9 3 1 -1 -9
10 19 1 -1 -10
11 33 1 -1 -11
12 11 1 -1 -12
13 22 1 -1 -13
14 24 1 -1 -14
15 24 1 -1 -15
16 12 1 -1 -16
17 30 1 -1 -17
18 0 1 -1 -18
19 21 1 -1 -19
20 9 1 -1 -20
21 22 1 -1 -21
22 5 1 -1 -22
23 3 1 -1 -23
24 2 1 -1 -24
25 25 1 -1 -25
26 18 1 -1 -26
27 35 1 -1 -27
28 20 1 -1 -28
29 16 1 -1 -29
30 10 1 -1 -30
31 31 1 -1 -31
32 33 1 -1 -32
33 23 1 -1 -33
34 18 1 -1 -34
35 22 1 -1 -35
36 15 1 -1 -36
37 0 1 -1 -37
38 21 1 -1 -38
39 24 1 -1 -39
40 18 1 -1 -40
41 1 1 -1 -41
42 33 1 -1 -42
43 11 1 -1 -43
44 5 1 -1 -44
45 25 1 -1 -45
46 22 1 -1 -46
47 0 1 -1 -47
48 24 1 -1 -48
49 34 1 -1 -49
50 25 1 -1 -50
51 2 1 -1 -51
52 31 1 -1 -52
53 22 1 -1 -53
54 32 1 -1 -54
55 6 1 -1 -55
56 8 1 -1 -56
57 17 1 -1 -57
58 33 1 -1 -58
59 24 1 -1 -59
60 34 1 -1 -60
61 1 1 -1 -61
62 27 1 35 -26
63 5 2 -2 -28
64 31 2 -2 -30
65 32 2 -2 -32
66 0 2 -2 -34
67 30 2 -2 -36
68 27 2 70 34
69 6 4 -4 30
70 9 4 -4 26
71 34 4 -4 22
72 10 4 -4 18
73 29 4 -4 14
74 28 4 -4 10
75 29 4 -4 6
76 2 4 -4 2
77 6 4 -4 -2
78 25 4 -4 -6
79 16 4 -4 -10
80 0 4 -4 -14
81 9 4 -4 -18
82 0 4 -4 -22
83 15 4 -4 -26
84 11 4 -4 -30
85 25 4 -4 -34
86 27 4 140 106


[winkel]

Today we have a funny situation. 4 numbers with 8 hits only in the actuals of yesterday.
{13;20;23;32}

What can we do?

- We bet the farthest back (20)
- We bet all four
- We bet the first one that hits
- We start betting the last remaining ( so thre of 4 have hit)
- We start betting the 3rd that had appeared, because the last one could be the new very-long-time-sleeper

results coming later

br
winkel

[winkel]

We bet the farthest back: 20

max 481 units
end 481 units
first hit spin 143 -107
win limit +90 at spin 250 +481
lowest stack: -343


We bet the last remaining: #20 at spin 66

max 547 units
end 547 units
first hit spin 76 (143) -41
win limit +90 spin 183 (250) +547
lowest stack: -277


We bet the 3rd after first appearance: spin 66 #13

max +153
end +153
first hit spin 1 (67) +35
winlimit +90 spin 47 (114) +153
lowest stack: -53


the other two later

[winkel]

The game is still in progress.

Betting all 4 numbers
rules:
- target +90 of all 4 single results
- is a single number +90 or higher it is still bet up to table-limit 32units (this is if one of them is a favorite now so we wanna collect)

max 549 units
end 549 units
win limit +90 at spin 263 +549
lowest stack: -1595


next rule will be:
- every single # stops at +90 or higher
- or stops after win in prog-stage 32

(have to wait for more spins for that)