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The Gambler's Fallacy

Started by Bayes, May 15, 06:18 AM 2016

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0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

The General

QuoteI typed up a long PM to you but then didn't send it lol (I do that often)
Let's just say - I think some aspects of the fallacy can easily be proven as factual and not fallacy.




A la cuenta de tres, vamos a enjambre, y atacarlo ( Turbo ).  >:D
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

TurboGenius

Quote from: The General on May 16, 09:05 PM 2016A la cuenta de tres, vamos a enjambre, y atacarlo

Ha !
Nah, I know enough when to keep my mouth shut and when to open it :)
link:[url="s://s18.postimg.cc/rgantqrs9/image.jpg"]s://s18.postimg.cc/rgantqrs9/image.jpg[/url]
link:[url="s://s15.postimg.cc/5lgm9j86j/turbo-banner.gif"]s://s15.postimg.cc/5lgm9j86j/turbo-banner.gif[/url]

RouletteGhost

.
the key to winning with systems : play for a statistically irrelevant number of spins

link:[url="s://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nmJKY59NX8o"]s://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nmJKY59NX8o[/url]

Narich

What you seek is seeking you.

Turner

Quote from: Narich on May 17, 01:13 AM 2016
What you seek is seeking you.
Well....the mods will be seeking you it you post with 2 names...Donnik777
In the same day too
Just post with Donnik please.

Steve

¡uno ... dos .... tres!
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Bayes

Voy a estar listo y en espera. :thumbsup:
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

sniper


Bayes

Quote from: TurboGenius on May 16, 07:56 PM 2016
I typed up a long PM to you but then didn't send it lol (I do that often)
Let's just say - I think some aspects of the fallacy can easily be proven as factual and not fallacy.

Pity, I would have liked to read it.

The point I was trying to make in my article (which most articles on the GF don't emphasize), is that the fallacy isn't really a matter of whether outcomes really are or are not random, but about consistency. If you challenge the premise that outcomes are random (fair) then you're not being inconsistent, which is something the General forgets (or doesn't realize). That's why, again and again, he accuses forum members of being "trapped in the box that is the gambler's fallacy".

But only in very few cases do people seem to be committing GF. What they're doing is challenging the premise of "random". Isn't that what Priyanka is trying to show in her thread - that there may be ways of looking at outcomes which may reveal that they are not quite so random as we think?

To then come along and say something along the lines of 1 + 1 = 2 is condescending. More to the point, it begs the question (assumes that the thing under investigation just cannot be even worth investigating). And therefore anyone pursuing it must be "illogical". 

"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

Steve

El arroz es moho y rancio . Muchos platos de duchas nos saludo a todos
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Bayes

Here's one rare honest account of the GF (you can't rely on a mathematician  >:D ).

link:s://:.youtube.com/watch?v=wgwfoQwq5P0
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

Turner

Steve....can I request a button that generates a response that says " great post Bayes"
Saves me keep typing it

Steve

By saying 1+1=2 it means if you don't change either odds or payout, you'll eventually lose money. Many people don't even understand the math
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

Bayes

Quote from: Steve on May 17, 03:32 AM 2016
By saying 1+1=2 it means if you don't change either odds or payout, you'll eventually lose money. Many people don't even understand the math

Steve, that's not the point. The AP player challenges the assumption of randomness. Why can't this be done in ways other than just focussing on the physics?

The General will repeat his mantras which amount to saying "it just can't".
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

Steve

Bayes i don't at all think it needs to be traditional physics.  I'm sure there are undiscovered ways to change the odds.
"The only way to beat roulette is by increasing the accuracy of predictions"
Roulettephysics.com ← Professional roulette tips
Roulette-computers.com ← Hidden electronics that predicts the winning number
Roulettephysics.com/roulette-strategy ← Why most systems lose

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