Here's a very good bet progression method that helps us stay in control, somewhat.
It's a very slow progression which means our enemy is if we have a high loss to win ratio, it will take quite a while to grind out of a drawdown, or we will have to bite the bullit and take a loss.
At the same time, because it's a slow progression, we will not go too deep in the hole, unless the loss percentage drops below 35-37% which doesn't happen often and usually for only a short while. With that low a hit rate, we lose with almost any progression except a martingale with enough steps that we catch wins often enough to reset. But, with a martingale, we run the risk of a steak of losses that causes us to give it all back.
We start by betting a unit on an even chance. On the 1st loss, we write the 1 down to start our recovery line. Every time we lose we write that amount on the right end of the line. Our line builds this way:
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 etc...
This means that we write each number down 2 times, each time representing a loss.
We have to win at each number in order to move to the next number. I.e. if we're betting the 1st 1, we continue to bet 1 until we have a win. Then we move to the 2nd 1 and continue to bet it until we have a win and then we move to the 1st 2 unit bet. So, as soon as we win we cross off that number and just play the number to the right.
Please note that the numbers to the right have no relationship to the units we are betting at present. They do represent units we will bet eventually, maybe.
Up to this point, there's nothing unique about this progression. It's just a stretched Oscar's Grind such that you must win twice before you more up to the next bet size.
We play until we reach a new profit, or exhaust the bets in our line.
The Safety Brake:
We know that a straight Oscar's Grind is ultimately a losing bet progression. Adding another step to it doesn't make it a winning bet progression, it just slows it down.
Since we know that we are going to lose more bets than we win, (unless we've discovered a bet selection method that wins more times than it loses, in which case we should never, ever use any kind of progression) so we need to have a method of bringing our bet line to an end even if it means we will not have recovered all our losses.
If you test this bet line a little you will notice that you reach a new profit before you catch up with the right end of the line. The reason is that when you are betting 1 unit and lose say 5 times before you win even 1 bet, you will have written down 1 1 2 2 3. This means that if you won the next 5 bets, you would win the sum of those 5 numbers or 9 units, but you only lost 5 units so you will be +4 if you lose 5 and then win 5. Of course we would stop at the 2nd 2 which would put us at a new profit because 1 + 1 + 2 + 2 = 6 minus our 5 losses = +1, so we reset.
The way our safety brake works is that we will cross off more than 1 number if we start getting too far behind on wins or we're not so far behind on wins, but our bet sizes are starting to get too large. This is based on the size of our right end number. Let's call this number our control number.
When our control number reaches 10, we begin crossing off 2 bet numbers for each win.
Example: Let's say we have the following line 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 every time we lose, we will cross off another number and bet the next number. But if we have the following 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 since we have reached 10 losses and haven't reached a new profit, our bets are starting to get larger so we want to bring this attack to an end as quickly as is reasonable. So, instead of only crossing off the 2nd 5 only when we win that bet, we would also cross off the 1st 6. Our next win would leave our line looking like this 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10.
Why? We wrote the numbers down 1 at a time after each loss and we're now crossing them off at twice the rate we wrote them down at. Our hope is that we can reach the end of our line quickly before it get's too far out of hand. It's possible to still show a profit and skip some of our bets due to the way the bet line was developed. Other times we will still have unrecovered units. We will just take the loss and reset.
The problem can be so great that one safety brake isn't sufficient. So we will have others. If our control number reaches 15, we will cross off three numbers for each win. If our control number reaches 25, we will cross off four numbers for each win. The longer we go without reaching a new profit, the greater the risk of a catastrophic loss. We must try to avoid this if at all possible.
Since we add a control number for each loss, when we eliminate 2, 3 or 4 with each win, we will quickly reach the end of the bet line and we always reset to 1 when we reach the end of our bet line even if we are still in the hole.
This should be understood without my having to say it, but for the guests who might be just getting acquainted with the forum, it is always possible to have so bad a loss to win ratio that nothing can prevent disaster. Therefore, you must always have a stop loss that you don't want to reach, but if you do, you will STOP!!!!!! I suggest you stop for the day. Collect yourself, regroup or whatever you want to call it before you play again.
Try it and see what you think,
GLC
Thank you Mr. Clooney! :D
Quote from: Face on Sep 08, 04:19 PM 2012
Thank you Mr. Clooney! :D
Test it and you'll really mean it.
While you're at it, try the double dozen line:
Put down two of the same number anytime you lose and cross off only one of the numbers when you win.
Example:
Start by betting 1-1. If we lose the recovery line looks like: 1 1 and we're still betting 1-1.
If you lose again: 1 1 2 2 Still betting 1-1 and lose again 1 1 2 2 3 3
Now let's win one. Still betting 1-1. It looks like this
1 1 2 2 3 3
We're still betting 1-1 and win again:
1 1 2 2 3 3. Now we're betting 2-2.
If we continue our example with these results L L W W W L L W W W W W be will have the following line:
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7
The result of the above is a win of +4 units.
We won 10 and lost 7 and won +4. Flat betting we would have to win 14 if we lost 7 just to break even.
I'm not saying this is infallible, but it's a very good method to bet double dozens.
I haven't decided where to put the safety brake. I'm thinking when the control number reaches 15 is a good place to start. It really depends on your risk tolerance. Each person can set the safety brakes to suit themselves.
GLC
I love your double dozens methods GLC. Thanks O0
Quote from: jarabo002 on Sep 08, 06:26 PM 2012
I love your double dozens methods GLC. Thanks O0
Thanks.
I think you'll find you can adapt it to suit your playing style, JB002.
You can even slow it down by having to lose twice at each level before moving up a number when writing down losses. Example we start betting 1-1 and lose, our line is: 1 1. Let's say we lost again, our line is now 1 1 1 1. Now if we lose again we can go to 1 1 1 1 2 2 another loss leaves our line 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2, etc... A win still only crosses off 1 number at a time. This is much more conservative, but some may like it especially if you thing you have a bet selection that is at the even steven mark.
It's difficult to come up with a new progression when someone has a bet selection method that's a little off the beaten track, but by posting a large variety of methods, different ones can be tested with your system to decide the one or two you like the best.
We all know that there's a risk with any progression. Heck, I've never lost a series of spins playing some excellent progression that I would have won flat betting. Let me say that another way. I have never had a loss to win ratio of say 15 wins to 30 losses that caused me to lose a progression on even chances that I wouldn't have lost flat betting also. Now I know that someone can come up with an example of a series of hand picked spins where a flat bet would have won and a progression would have lost. But that's the exception rather than the rule.
I know that some will say that a progression loses more when it loses than flat betting and I'll agree with that statement if you'll admit that a progression wins more when it wins than flat betting. And there are many times when a progression wins and flat betting loses. My double dozen example above is a case in point.
Please don't misunderstand my point. I'm not saying that if you have a bet selection that wins more bets than it losees, you should use a progression so you can win more. Because of random swings in spin results, you can still have a progression busting run of losses that a flat bet would have weathered. If you can flat bet and win, that's the ticket.
GLC: I am a new member to this forum and I loved every bit of your consistent education on Money Management.
My hats-off to you on your intellectuality.
Question:Your Double Dozen Line looks similar to Laboucher progression. Because we are betting two dozens we are adding two similar numbers at the end. Is that correct?
Here's a short example I did for a member who requested it via PM.
W +1 Reset Anytime we're at a profit we reset
W +1 Reset Ditto
L -1 1, -1
L -1 1,1 -2
W +1 1,1 -1 Everytime we win, we cross off the number we won
W +1 1,1 0 Reset
L -1 1 -1
L -1 1,1 -2
W +1 1,1 -1
W +1 1,1 0 Reset
W +1 +1 Reset
W +1 +1 Reset
L -1 1 -1
L -1 1,1 -2
W +1 1,1 -1
L -1 1,1,2 -2
W +1 1,1,2 -1
L -2 1,1,2,2 -3
L -2 1,1,2,2,3 -5
L -2 1,1,2,2,3,3 -7
W +2 1,1,2,2,3,3 -5
W +2 1,1,2,2,3,3 -3
L -3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4 -6
W +3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4 -3
L -3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4 -6
W +3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4 -3
W +4 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4 +1 Reset
W +1 +1 Reset
W +1 +1 Reset
L -1 1 -1
L -1 1,1 -2
L -1 1,1,2 -3
L -1 1,1,2,2 -4
L -1 1,1,2,2,3 -5
W +1 1,1,2,2,3 -4
W +1 1,1,2,2,3 -3
W +2 1,1,2,2,3 -1
L -2 1,1,2,2,3,3 -3
L -2 1,1,2,2,3,3,4 -5
W +2 1,1,2,2,3,3,4 -3
L -3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4 -6
W +3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4 -3
L -3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5 -6
W +3 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5 -3
W +4 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5 +1 Reset
That's 21 losses and 24 wins for +8 units vs +3 with flat betting.
As you can see, this is a tweak on +2, -2. A pretty big tweak because we never do a -2, thus the "zero down" in the subject. And, +2, -2 is strictly a negative progression. Another thing I like over +2, -2 is that we always bet the leftmost, uncrossed off number which tends to keep our bets lower while we wait for the winning streak that takes us to new profits.
I didn't show how the safety brake works.
When I get some free time I will.
This is like a million other progressions. It'll work most of the time and it'll tank every now and then. You must be prepared for the "tankings".
Hello GLC,
Thank you very much for the progression.
Could you please kindly do one for single dozen.
Regards
Quote from: sniper on Sep 09, 12:50 PM 2012
Hello GLC,
Thank you very much for the progression.
Could you please kindly do one for single dozen.
Regards
I have been looking at the single dozen progression and haven't got it nailed down yet. Here's my initial idea.
Play just like we do on even chances. Write a number down for each loss. Write the same number down 3 times before going on to the next number. Cross off 1 number for each win.
So, if we start our session off with the following 12 decisions, LLLLLLWWLWLW, our recovery line would play like this:
L -1 1 -1
L -1 1 1 -2
L -1 1 1 1 -3
L -1 1 1 1 2 -4
L -1 1 1 1 2 2 -5
L -1 1 1 1 2 2 2 -6
W +1
1 1 1 2 2 2 -4
W +1
1 1 1 2 2 2 -2
L -1
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 -3
W +1
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 -1
L -2
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 -3
W +2
1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 +1 Reset
We could probably start our safety brakes at 15 or even 20.
Safety brakes are a personal decision. Start them early for keeping bets smaller, but giving up some wins and a few more losses. Or you can make them larger which will give you more wins, but the losses will be larger.
Notice that if we didn't use safety brakes, we could eliminate the control number and just use a "win 3 times on each number" and move to the next until we are at a new profit, then reset.
The control number is just for deciding where to start winding down the spiral into the abyss when things aren't going our way.
There's a definite corelation between the number of losses we incur without having reached a new profit and our chances of doing so.
If we don't reach a new profit within 15-20 losses, we are having a bad session and if things continue we will find ourselves looking up from a pretty deep hole. Better to have a plan to cut our losses.
Remember F_LAT_INO's sage advice and who knows roulette better than he does? "It's better to get wounded than killed!"
Most of us are healthy enough to recover from a wound, especially just a flesh wound. But getting killed? :'(
Thank you GLC.
The single dozen progression looks practical.
I will try it out.
Regards
Another sample:
L -1 1 -1
L -1 1,1 -2
W +1 1,1 -1
L -1 1,1,2 -2
L -1 1,1,2,2 -3
L -1 1,1,2,2,3 -4
L -1 1,1,2,2,3,3 -5
L -1 1,1,2,2,3,3,4 -6
L -1 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4 -7
L -1 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5 -8
W +1 1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5 -7
L -2 2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5 -9
L -2 2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6 -11
W +2 2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6 -9
L -2 2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6 -11
W +2 3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6 -9
W +3 3,4,4,5,5,6,6 -6
W +3 4,4,5,5,6,6 -3
W +4 4,5,5,6,6 +1 Reset
L -1 1 -1
L -1 1,1 -2
W +1 1 -1
L -1 1,2 -2
W +1 2 -1
L -2 2,2 -3
L -2 2,2,3 -5
L -2 2,2,3,3 -7
L -2 2,2,3,3,4 -9
L -2 2,2,3,3,4,4 -11
W +2 2,3,3,4,4 -9
L -2 2,3,3,4,4,5 -11
W +2 3,3,4,4,5 -11
L -3 3,3,4,4,5,5 -14
L -3 3,3,4,4,5,5,6 -17
W +3 3,4,4,5,5,6 -14
W +3 4,4,5,5,6 -11
W +4 4,5,5,6 -7
W +4 5,5,6 -3
L -5 5,5,6,6 -8
W +5 5,6,6 -3
W +5 6,6 +2 Reset
Please note 24 losses and 17 Wins. Flat bet would have lost 7 units but we won 3.
I am aware that this sequence started out with a lot of losses and ended with more wins. That's always the case when we start out with a streak of losses, we have to have a win rich series to pull back to even or plus.
A lot of scammers use this method to sell their systems. They show a high win to loss ratio but their systems beats it. An epitome of this would be LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWWWWWWW and they end up with a plus. Duh??
The killer is too long a series like this:
LLLWLWLWLLWLLWLLLWWLLLLWLLLWWLWWWW
Not enough Ws to close the gap on all the losses.
I designed this one to show how the safery brake works.
Here's how the above W/L line would play:
L -1 1 -1
L -1 1 1 -2
L -1 1 1 2 -3
W +1 1 1 -2
L -1 1 1 2 2 -3
W +1 1 1 2 2 -2
L -2 1 1 2 2 3 -4
W +2 1 1 2 2 3 -2
L -2 1 1 2 2 3 3 -4
L -2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 -6
W +2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 -4
L -3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 -7
L -3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 -10
W +3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 -7
L -3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 -10
L -3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 -13
L -3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 -16
W +3 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 -13
W +4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 -9
L -4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 -13
L -4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 -17
L -4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 -21
L -4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 -25
W +4 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 -21
L -5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 -26
L -5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 -31
L -5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 -36 Safety Brake, X off 2 for each win
W +5 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 -31
W +6 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 -25
L -7 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 -32
W +7 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 -25
W +8 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 -17
W +9 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 -8
W +10 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 +2
As you can see this one worked out to reach a new high but we needed 6 wins less than losses.
Wins = 14
Losses = 20
41% win rate and we ended +2
Flat bet would have been -6
Not all will end + after having to go to the safety brake(s). Especially if we have to go to double or triple skips.
But, we can see from the Red area how quickly the drawdowns can escalate. That's why we need the safety brakes.
But hey, I never claimed this to win every time! :thumbsup:
Hi GLC,
What is the recommended BR for using this progression in double dozen. Thanks.
Regards
Quote from: IndianGuru on Sep 09, 11:07 AM 2012
GLC: I am a new member to this forum and I loved every bit of your consistent education on Money Management.
My hats-off to you on your intellectuality.
Question:Your Double Dozen Line looks similar to Laboucher progression. Because we are betting two dozens we are adding two similar numbers at the end. Is that correct?
Sorry IG, I missed this post. Didn't mean to ignore your question.
The answer to your question is, yes and no. Yes, because when you're betting 1-1, and you lose, you do write down 1 1. After that it depends on your wins because you continue to bet 1-1 until you win at the 1-1 level but every time you lose you write the next number in sequence.
Example: We're betting 1-1 and we lose so we write down 1 1.
We bet 1-1 again and we lose again so we write down 2 2. Our line is : 1 1 2 2
We bet 1-1 again because we haven't won while betting 1-1 yet. Let's say we lose again.
Our line now looks like this: 1 1 2 2 3 3
Still betting 1-1 and we finally win. We only cross off 1 number in our line, so:
1 1 2 2 3 3.
Our next bet is again 1-1 because the next number is another 1. Let's win again.
Our line now looks like this:
1 1 2 2 3 3.
Now we move to betting 2-2. If we lose we just write the next number in sequence down twice. Like this
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4.
We're still betting 2-2 and we have a win:
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4.
Still betting 2-2 and we have another loss:
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5.
So, when we lose we write the next number in sequence to the right end of the line and when we win we cross off the left number (only 1 number here) of the line and move to the next number for our next bet.
Remember, we only move to the next number in the line after a win. After losses, we remain at the same number but continue to write down larger numbers on the right end.
We always bet the leftmost number on each dozen. We could write the above line like this:
1-1, 1-1, 2-2, 2-2, 3-3, 3-3, 4-4, 4-4, 5-5, 5-5. That's maybe a little more clear but extra writing for nothing.
This line recovers before you win enough times to cross off the whole line because we are writing down larger numbers when we lose than we are betting.
Because it's a 2:1 payoff, we will be winning, generally, twice as often as we will be losing. That's why we can write down 2 numbers when we lose and only cross of 1 number when we win.
Quote from: Genghis on Sep 10, 11:20 PM 2012
Hi GLC,
What is the recommended BR for using this progression in double dozen. Thanks.
Regards
I don't have a hard stop-loss. My rule of thumb is to have 10 times my win target.
I would need a BR of 200 units for a win target of 20 units.
Remember, we still need to come up with a reasonable safety brake for double dozens. You could use the same brakes as with even chances. If your line looks like this 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10; at this point you could start crossing off 2 numbers on the left end after each win. Maybe 10 is too high, so try 8 and see how it plays.
There's no absolute number yet. We can determine that as a forum or a individuals.
Remember, this is really just a bet progression idea, not a complete system.
GLC
another good one george
Quote from: Tomla021 on Sep 14, 08:04 PM 2012
another good one george
Been having good luck with this concept on the double streets, single streets, dozens, double dozens etc... Heck, I guess if it works well on one, it'll probably do well on all of them.
I think I'll do some runs on Skakus' W/L series he posted on his JL test. See if it works as well as his positive/negative progression idea. Which, by the way, I think is a novel bet method. :thumbsup: I'm glad somebody thought of it. :lol:
Here's a short example of the bet progression "2 up zero down" on Skakus' bet results.
As you can see, it works very well with a good bet selection method.
07/08/2012 Bet Amt + total
EVEN 1 W 301 +1 +1 Reset +1
LOW 2 W 303 +1 +1 Reset +2
07/08/2012
LOW 1 W 304 +1 +1 Reset +3
LOW 2 L 302 -1 1 -1
ODD 2 L 300 -1 11 -2
ODD 3 W 303 +1 1 -1
ODD 3 L 300 -1 12 -2
BLACK 3 L 297 -1 122 -3
ODD 4 W 301 +1 22 -2
07/08/2012
BLACK 1 W 302 +2 2 0 Reset +3
BLACK 2 L 300 -1 1 -1
EVEN 1 W 301 +1 0 Reset +3
EVEN 2 L 299 -1 1 -1
ODD 1 W 300 +1 0 Reset +3
ODD 2 W 302 +1 +1 Reset +4
07/08/2012
ODD 1 L 301 -1 1 -1
ODD 2 L 299 -1 11 -2
HIGH 3 L 296 -1 112 -3
EVEN 4 L 292 -1 1122 -4
EVEN 5 L 287 -1 11223 -5
BLACK 3 L 284 -1 112233 -6
LOW 2 W 286 +1 12233 -5
LOW 3 W 289 +1 2233 -4
LOW 3 W 292 +2 233 -2
LOW 2 W 294 +2 33 0 Reset +4
LOW 1 W 295 +1 +1 Reset +5
LOW 1 W 296 +1 +1 Reset +6
LOW 1 L 295 -1 1 -1
LOW 2 W 297 +1 0 Reset +6
RED 1 L 296 -1 1 -1
HIGH 2 L 294 -1 11 -2
RED 3 W 297 +1 1 -1
RED 2 W 299 +1 0 Reset +6
RED 1 L 298 -1 1 -1
RED 2 L 296 -1 11 -2
LOW 3 W 299 +1 1 -1
LOW 2 L 297 -1 12 -2
LOW 3 L 294 -1 122 -3
RED 4 W 298 +1 22 -2
HIGH 3 W 301 +2 2 0 Reset +6
HIGH 2 L 299 -1 1 -1
RED 3 W 302 +1 0 Reset +6
RED 2 W 304 +1 +1 Reset +7
07/08/2012
RED 2 L 302 -1 1 -1
LOW 3 L 299 -1 11 -2
LOW 4 L 295 -1 112 -3
BLACK 5 L 290 -1 1122 -4
BLACK 5 W 295 +1 122 -3
BLACK 4 W 299 +1 22 -2
BLACK 4 L 295 -2 223 -4
HIGH 4 W 299 +2 23 -2
HIGH 3 L 296 -2 233 -4
RED 4 W 300 +2 33 -2
RED 3 W 303 +3 3 +1 Reset +8
RED 2 L 301 -1 1 -1
ODD 3 L 298 -1 11 -2
HIGH 3 W 301 +1 1 -1
RED 2 L 299 -1 12 -2
LOW 3 W 302 +1 2 -1
LOW 2 L 300 -2 22 -3
EVEN 3 W 303 +2 2 -1
EVEN 2 W 305 +2 +1 Reset +9
HIGH 1 L 304 -1 1 -1
HIGH 2 L 302 -1 11 -2
ODD 2 W 304 +1 1 -1
ODD 1 W 305 +1 0 Reset +9
ODD 1 L 304 -1 1 -1
HIGH 2 W 306 +1 0 Reset +9
HIGH 1 W 307 +1 +1 Reset +10
07/08/2012
LOW 1 L 306
Next, I'll jump down and see how it handles a series of his spins that he loses 108 units on and see how we hold up.
Hi GLC.
I've attached my most recent loss of 108 units.
See how you go.
Quote from: Skakus on Sep 15, 01:54 AM 2012
Hi GLC.
I've attached my most recent loss of 108 units.
See how you go.
14/09/2012 Bet Amt Control # Result + Total
ODD 1 W 1957 +1 +1 +1 Reset
14/09/2012
ODD 2 L 1955 -1 1 -1
HIGH 2 W 1957 +1 0 +1 Reset
ODD 3 L 1954 -1 1 -1
ODD 3 L 1951 -1 11 -2
HIGH 4 L 1947 -1 112 -3
LOW 5 L 1942 -1 1122 -4
LOW 6 L 1936 -1 11223 -5
LOW 6 W 1942 +1 1223 -4
LOW 5 L 1937 -1 12233 -5
LOW 5 W 1942 +1 2233 -4
LOW 4 W 1946 +2 233 -2
LOW 3 L 1943 -2 2334 -4
LOW 4 L 1939 -2 23344 -6
LOW 4 W 1943 +2 3344 -4
LOW 3 L 1940 -3 33445 -7
LOW 3 L 1937 -3 334455 -10
14/09/2012
BLACK 3 W 1940 +3 34455 -7
EVEN 4 L 1936 -3 344556 -10
EVEN 4 W 1940 +3 44556 -7
EVEN 5 L 1935 -4 445566 -11
EVEN 5 W 1940 +4 45566 -7
14/09/2012
BLACK 6 W 1946 +4 5566 -3
RED 7 W 1953 +5 566 +2 +3 Reset
BLACK 8 L 1945 -1 1 -1
RED 7 L 1938 -1 11 -2
ODD 6 L 1932 -1 1122 -3
ODD 6 W 1938 +1 122 -2
ODD 7 W 1945 +1 22 -1
14/09/2012
LOW 8 L 1937 -2 223 -3
LOW 7 W 1944 +2 23 -1
LOW 8 L 1936 -2 233 -3
LOW 7 L 1929 -2 2334 -5
LOW 7 L 1922 -2 23344 -7
LOW 8 W 1930 +2 3344 -5
14/09/2012
EVEN 8 W 1938 +3 344 -2
14/09/2012
LOW 9 L 1929 -3 3445 -5
EVEN 9 W 1938 +3 4455 -2
RED 10 W 1948 +4 455 +2 +5 Reset
14/09/2012
ODD 11 L 1937 -1 1 -1
ODD 10 W 1947 +1 0 +5 Reset
ODD 11 W 1958 +1 +1 +6 Reset
14/09/2012
EVEN 12 L 1946 -1 1 -1
EVEN 11 W 1957 +1 0 +6 Reset
LOW 12 L 1945 -1 1 -1
HIGH 11 L 1934 -1 11 -2
RED 10 L 1924 -1 112 -3
EVEN 10 L 1914 -1 1122 -4
BLACK 11 L 1903 -1 11223 -5
14/09/2012
EVEN 12 L 1891 -1 112233 -6
14/09/2012
ODD 13 L 1878 -1 1122334 -7
14/09/2012
EVEN 13 L 1865 -1 11223344 -8
14/09/2012
HIGH 13 W 1878 +1 1223344 -7
14/09/2012
HIGH 14 W 1892 +1 223344 -6
14/09/2012
RED 15 L 1877 -2 2233445 -8
RED 14 W 1891 +2 233445 -6
RED 15 W 1906 +2 33445 -4
15/09/2012
ODD 16 L 1890 -3 334455 -7
ODD 15 L 1875 -3 3344556 -10
ODD 14 L 1861 -3 33445566 -13
BLACK 13 L 1848 -3 33445566 -16 +6 = -10 final result
Even though I didn't lose -108 units with "2 up zero down", it can!
These spins are more favorable than other spins would be. I'm pretty sure that Skakus' progression can win more in certain sequences than "2 up 0 down."
36 Losses = 59%
25 Wins = 41%
WLLWLLLLWLLWLLWLLLWLLL This is the sequence that hurts "2 up 0 down." Of course that's a 72.7% lose rate which will kill everything except a martingale.
Also, "2 up 0 down" needs 2 or more Wins in a row to make any headway.
It's a slow, modified, positive progression. I say modified because it doesn't move backwards until it reaches a new high or we employ the safety brake and exhaust our line.
That means we will have to take a loss sometimes so we can reset in order to not be totally wiped out by an extended killer sequence.
If there are any questions about how I'm playing it, just ask.
And remember, this progression type works well on lines, streets, dozens, dbl dozens, etc... It's not perfect and it can have to take a loss every now and then which always hurts, but it keeps us from being killed which gives us a chance to stay in the game and take advantage of the favorable sequences.
GLC
This post supercedes my post above on "2 up 0 down" for single dozens.
We play the single dozen or single column bets using all the same numbers as the even chance bet but we multiply each number by 2. That's because an even chance is a 1 to 1 payoff and a dozen is a 2 to 1 payoff.
The only difference is that we write down 4 of each number, representing 1 number for each loss when playing the dozens, instead of 2 of each number representing 1 number for each loss when playing the even chances. And, we cross off 2 numbers for each win when playing dozens instead of 1 number for each win when playing even chances. If you think about this for a moment, you'll see exactly why we do this. It has to do with the pay-out per unit bet ratio.
Illustration: If we have no wins and 5 losses on the even chance bet our line will look like this:
1 1 2 2 3. (Remember, we are still only betting 1 unit because we don't have 2 wins yet.
If we have no wins and 5 losses on the single dozen bet our line will look like this:
1 1 1 1 2.
If we have no wins and 10 losses on the single dozen bet our line will look like this:
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3. Also, still only betting 1 unit because haven't had 2 wins yet.
If we now have 3 wins in a row, the above line will look like this:
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3.
We would be down -2 at this time because we lost 10 bets at 1 units each and won 2 bets at 1 with a 2:1 payout netting 4 units and 1 bet at 2 units netting 4 units = 8 units. -10+8= -2 units.
SAFETY BRAKES:
When we get something like this: 11223344556677889910 10, it's time to incorporate the safety brake and start crossing off 4 number for each win instead of only 2 numbers.
Our safety brakes are:
At 10 we cross off 4 numbers for each win instead of 2.
At 15 we cross off 6 numbers for each win instead of 3.
At 25 we cross off 8 numbers for each win instead of 4.
This will exhaust our line more quickly giving us the opportunity to reset. We will have to take a loss most of the time when we have to incorporate the safety brakes and the larger a bet level we get to, the larger our loss will be, but it's necessary to give up some units along the way rather than play each attack till death do us part.
The safety brakes don't come into play that often. Most of the time we will reach a new profit before we lose enough times to reach 10 unit bets or higher.
When we reach 10 unit bets or higher, it means we are having a very bad session and we should be happy to get out of it without losing our shirt. Well, we might lose our shirt, but hopefully not our pants too.
This can be played on any of the pay-off locations. 1 to 1; 2 to 1; 5 to 1; 8 to 1; 11 to 1; 17 to 1; 35 to 1.
It can also be used as the bet progression for any of your bet selection methods for any of the different pay-offs. This includes matrices.
When playing double dozens, you can use the method I posted above which works just fine, or you can just play the single dozen method on each dozen separately. This means that when you bet your double dozen, you won't be betting the same amount on each dozen. It'll depend on where each of the 2 dozens are in their own bet line.
Same thing for multiple Lines, Streets, etc...
You will have to determine a stop-loss that fits you pocket book and playing style.
This bet method is actually the guts of Full TrioPlay/Tera TNT which happens to be my favorite systems. I just tweaked it to make it more user friendly.
I think it's an improvement if you don't mind my saying so.
Quote from: GLC on Sep 08, 06:05 PM 2012
Test it and you'll really mean it.
While you're at it, try the double dozen line:
Put down two of the same number anytime you lose and cross off only one of the numbers when you win.
Example:
Start by betting 1-1. If we lose the recovery line looks like: 1 1 and we're still betting 1-1.
If you lose again: 1 1 2 2 Still betting 1-1 and lose again 1 1 2 2 3 3
Now let's win one. Still betting 1-1. It looks like this 1 1 2 2 3 3
We're still betting 1-1 and win again: 1 1 2 2 3 3. Now we're betting 2-2.
If we continue our example with these results L L W W W L L W W W W W be will have the following line:
1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7
The result of the above is a win of +4 units.
We won 10 and lost 7 and won +4. Flat betting we would have to win 14 if we lost 7 just to break even.
I'm not saying this is infallible, but it's a very good method to bet double dozens.
I haven't decided where to put the safety brake. I'm thinking when the control number reaches 15 (This is a mistake. I meant to make it 5 just like the even chance bet) is a good place to start. It really depends on your risk tolerance. Each person can set the safety brakes to suit themselves.
GLC
The safety brakes would begin when the rightmost number = 5 at which time we would cross off 2 numbers for each win.
Then at 10 where we would cross off 3 numbers for each win.
Then at 15 where we would cross off 4 numbers for each win.
Quote from: GLC on Sep 15, 11:52 PM 2012
Same thing for multiple Lines, Streets, etc...
You will have to determine a stop-loss that fits you pocket book and playing style.
I think it's an improvement if you don't mind my saying so.
dear George
i modified it for my sector bet: 1111222233334444 etc without safety brake. i bet 4 times before i move to next number. last night i scored 200 units. i have decided to use this variations for my one dozen method too. trying to incorporate partial parlay into it. thanks a lot. this forum salute you. :thumbsup: :love:
catalyst
Quote from: catalyst on Sep 16, 03:03 AM 2012
i bet 4 times before i move to next number (Cat, do you "bet" 4 times then move, or do you have to "win" 4 times before you move?)
catalyst
This bet progression method can be expanded to slow it down as far as you want. In other words, instead of writing down 1 1 2 2 3 3, you could expand it to 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 or 4 times at each level or even more. This means you will have to win three times at each level before you move to the next higher bet.
The trade-off is that you need a higher win ratio to get to a new profit than when you're increasing your bets more quickly. All I'm trying to do is to be able to eke out a win with a series of spins that we would have lost a little or won less were we flat betting. This does introduce the possibility of a larger loss every now and then over flat betting. There's ALWAYS a trade-off.
It's like my financial advisor is always prodding me for. How much risk am I willing to take for the potential reward I can get? Only you can decide that.
Quote from: GLC on Sep 16, 10:30 AM 2012
This bet progression method can be expanded to slow it down as far as you want. In other words, instead of writing down 1 1 2 2 3 3, you could expand it to 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 or 4 times at each level or even more. This means you will have to win three times at each level before you move to the next higher bet.
dear George
i used to employ an extended modified fibo in which recovery from a hole was slower. but this one is better as i bet 4 times for each numer in the series before i move to the next one. but if there is a win, i go to next number without finishing 4 times and when i recover or close to recover, i reset counter. in this way i dont use safety brake.
George, this one is slow but good progession. do you remember from the school book:
slow and steady wins the race. :twisted: :twisted: thanks
catalyst
GLC:
Dou still suggest 200 unit BR for all the below scenarios ? for this MM?
1-EC's
2-Dobule Dozens
3-Single Dozens
If not please give me a ball park BR for individual selections. So that I am well equiped to fight the battle. Thanks again.
Quote from: IndianGuru on Sep 16, 05:50 PM 2012
GLC:
Dou still suggest 200 unit BR for all the below scenarios ? for this MM?
1-ECs
2-Dobule Dozens
3-Single Dozens
If not please give me a ball park BR for individual selections. So that I am well equiped to fight the battle. Thanks again.
IndianGuru,
Remember, I suggest a buy-in/stop-loss of 10 times your win target. In my testing, I play to a win target of 20 units therefore I use a bank of 200 units. With this new tweak, I haven't lost 200 units yet. The safety brake has saved me each time I get too deep in the hole. The safety brake may kick in so well that we can never lose our 200 units before being saved from total disaster. I must admit that I haven't tested this enough to be too emphatic on if or how often you must take a total loss.
I think what is more likely to happen is that we will have a series of spins that we keep getting saved by the safety brake, but we are still losing units and we don't win enough +10 or +20 unit win targets to prevent finally hitting our stop-loss.
I'm sorry, but all my testing is done by hand and I don't have the time to test enough to state anything close to absolutes.
Have you been watching Skakus' JL type challenge? He plays until he's +8 or -108.
That's close enough to my suggestion for me.
Forgive me if what I'm about to write causes your eyes to glass over, but I feel that I can't repeat it too often.
I suggest 10 times your win target but I think 20 times your win target is better as long as you understand that with 20 times your win target, you will reach your win target a lot more times than if you only have a stop-loss of 10 times your win target. The trade-off with 20 times your win target is that a loss, and I think there will be a loss if you play long enough, a loss really sets you back a lot of hours of play. It can be very discouraging, but I think it's preferable.
You could set your win target at 1 unit and a stop-loss at 10 for even chances (I wouldn't recommend this for double dozens) You would lose much more often, but your losses wouldn't be so phychologically devastating. I think you would still need at least 100 units to play this way. That would give you 10 losses before you're wiped out.
Remember, when we only give ourselves a small window for ups and downs in our play, we tend to handcuff ourselves by not giving us enough wiggle room to pull out of small to moderate drawdowns. We also don't give ourselves enough time to take full advantage of our safety brakes.
I suggest a reasonable stop-loss so we can incorporate all aspects of the system, and the safety brakes are an important part of the system.
Why not test the -108 or +8 parameters and see if you like playing under those conditions before you go to the casino and risk any money? If you can play on-line, like Sam does for dimes, I suggest you do that until you are totally familiar with how the system plays.
Try the even chances, double dozens and single dozens and see which one you like the best.
Remember the admonitions of Bayes and F_LAT_INO to be very familiar with the game to improve your chances to win. Practicing for dimes adds enough spice to keep you interested in the results and let's you test under actual conditions.
Good luck to you my friend,
GLC
-
It is cruel to find a balance between what should be the Loss-Limit and Win-Target as it defines what kind of Strike Ratio we should have with particular method.
Cheers
Thank you George. I will take your suggestions to my heart.
" I guess it is better stand drink water than run far and drink Milk" ;D
Quote
Remember, when we only give ourselves a small window for ups and downs in our play, we tend to handcuff ourselves by not giving us enough wiggle room to pull out of small to moderate drawdowns. We also don't give ourselves enough time to take full advantage of our safety brakes.
I suggest a reasonable stop-loss so we can incorporate all aspects of the system, and the safety brakes are an important part of the system.
win and loss tend to follow the Bell Curve. therefore, to follow up and downs, some one need to incorporate all the aspects of the system including Brett Morton's idea of safety net presented here by George long before which i employ often. :thumbsup: :thumbsup:
Quote from: GLC on Sep 08, 07:09 PM 2012
Thanks.
I think you'll find you can adapt it to suit your playing style, JB002.
You can even slow it down by having to lose twice at each level before moving up a number when writing down losses. Example we start betting 1-1 and lose, our line is: 1 1. Let's say we lost again, our line is now 1 1 1 1. Now if we lose again we can go to 1 1 1 1 2 2 another loss leaves our line 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2, etc... A win still only crosses off 1 number at a time. This is much more conservative, but some may like it especially if you thing you have a bet selection that is at the even steven mark.
It's difficult to come up with a new progression when someone has a bet selection method that's a little off the beaten track, but by posting a large variety of methods, different ones can be tested with your system to decide the one or two you like the best.
We all know that there's a risk with any progression. Heck, I've never lost a series of spins playing some excellent progression that I would have won flat betting. Let me say that another way. I have never had a loss to win ratio of say 15 wins to 30 losses that caused me to lose a progression on even chances that I wouldn't have lost flat betting also. Now I know that someone can come up with an example of a series of hand picked spins where a flat bet would have won and a progression would have lost. But that's the exception rather than the rule.
I know that some will say that a progression loses more when it loses than flat betting and I'll agree with that statement if you'll admit that a progression wins more when it wins than flat betting. And there are many times when a progression wins and flat betting loses. My double dozen example above is a case in point.
Please don't misunderstand my point. I'm not saying that if you have a bet selection that wins more bets than it losees, you should use a progression so you can win more. Because of random swings in spin results, you can still have a progression busting run of losses that a flat bet would have weathered. If you can flat bet and win, that's the ticket.
Thanks GLC.
I'm not very fond of the bet selections, because I see no advantage in it. I choose two dozens and always bet on them.
I tried the following progression for two dozens with some success:
11-22-22-33-33-44-44-(safety brake)-55-55-66-66-(restart)
but the problem is the same as always, the drawdons, and his difficult recovery. Maybe you could figure out some from any progression for recover losses in successive games.
Sorry, Jarabo002. I am very busy right at this moment and don't have the time to invest in the forum for a while. I don't think I can improve on this bet progression other than to slow it down by losing twice at each level and having to win 4 times to recover. 6 losses in a row would look like this:
1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 etc... Don't increase your bet size until you've won 4 times at a level.
As you know, this will slow things down quite a bit. I'm not opposed to the idea, because the closer we get to a flat bet and still win, the better.
Before I misspoke. I bet as you say GLC, but only two ones at the beginning and not four.
1122223333... instead 111122223333...
I have to say that at first I had some success, but are unable to recover drawdons. That its the problem.
It's a problem that I can not fight with the safety brackets, but i feel that I am near of a very good method. :)
Jarabo002, Please see my latest post
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=10294.msg92454#new (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=10294.msg92454#new)
Test the double dozens and see what you think.
GLC
any testing i have done with this has been great
Quote from: GLC on Sep 22, 03:19 PM 2012
Jarabo002, Please see my latest post
link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=10294.msg92454#new (link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=10294.msg92454#new)
Test the double dozens and see what you think.
GLC
Thanks GLC. I tell you there.
I know this topic has been dead for a while, but I want to make a follow-up post to present a modification I've found to be an improvement especially for those of you who like to play slow and easy.
This topic is a combination of Full TrioPlay and The Bread Winner system with a ladder adaptation.
Here's how it works. We play the way I detailed in the original post. But, instead of writing down losses in sets of 2's, we write them down in sets of 5's. This slows things down quite a bit. When we start, we don't write a 1 down until we have our 1st loss. Then, any time we have a win, we cross off one of our 1's. Any time we have a loss, we write another 1 at the right end of our line. Any time we have five uncrossed off 1's written down, we start writing down 2's after each loss. Once we get five uncrossed off 2's written down, we start writing down 3's after each loss, etc... We always bet the amount of the leftmost uncrossed off number. Any time we get back to even or plus, we abandon the attack and reset back to a first 1 unit bet.
We still use the safety brake which I will restate because I think I made a minor mistake in the original. We cross off the number we are betting after each win until a loss causes us to write down our first 6. At this point, when we lose we cross off the number we're betting plus the number to the right of the one we're betting. Another way to say this is from the 1st 1 to the loss that causes us to write down the 5th 5 we will cross off 1 number after each win. From the 1st 6 we will cross off 2 numbers after every win. From the 1st 11, we will cross off 3 numbers after every win. From the 1st 16 we will cross off four numbers after every win. From the 1st 21 we will cross off 5 numbers after every win, ect... I have never gotten this far in the safety brake area, but I suppose it's possible.
If we reach the point where we have no more numbers to cross off, we have to terminate that attack. If we are still in the hole, we reset but we start our next attack with 2 unit bets instead of 1 unit bets. We play the same way as when starting with 1 unit bets. Our safety brake numbers will still be in sets of 5's. Our first one will be on the 1st time we write down a 7, then the 1st 12, then the 1st 17 etc...
If we again reach the point where we have no more numbers to cross off, we have to terminate that attack and if we're still in the hole, we reset but we start this next attack with a 3 unit bet instead of a 2 unit bet etc...
We continue playing this way until we finally reach a break even point or a new profit.
I must end by agreeing with our friends Flatino, Winkel and last but not least, Ralph who is no longer with us except in spirit. They pointed out that roulette is a very difficult war to win and especially without plenty of ammunition.
Don't get caught surrounded by the enemy and run out of bullets.
GLC
Hi George,
Many thanks for highlighting this MM once again with the tweak...very interesting :)
Regards
Jim
Hey george
this is very close to the way I play and thanks for pushing it up again!!!! enjoy life
Hi GLC, thanks for posting this progression.I have tested it out on some of my worst baccarat shoes and it improved the loss total a fair amount.One shoe only had 20 wins from 51 decisions excluding ties.I used 1-1-1-1-2-2-2-2-3-3-3-3 etc as my progression.The progression I started with was the "foolproof"by Stetson Bailey.Yours did better on this particular shoe,hey,hey! :P
I decided to add a bet selection method with this progression idea.
It's a bet on 4 locations. 1 even chance, 2 dozens, and 1 column.
The even chance is based on my favorite e.c. selection method that I've described numerous times before. It's follow-the-last. We'll be betting follow-the-last on the Red/Black even chance. If we get 3 chops in a row, we bet for the chops to continue. So, if we get RRRBRB that's 3 chops in a row so we bet for the chops to continue. Meaning our next bet will be for R and we continue to bet for chops until we get 1 loss. After a loss, we will have 2 of the same color so we just go back to follow-the-last.
The other deviation from follow-the-last is if we get two sets of 2 in a row. When we get something like this, RBBRR we bet for the doublets to continue. Once we have a loss, we revert to follow-the-last.
We play the 2 dozens bets similarly. So, if we have a low (1-18) number, we will bet the 1st and 2nd dozens for the next spin. If we have a high number, we will bet the 2nd and 3rd dozens for the next spin. Follow the same rules as outlined for the e.c.'s above as far as chops and doublets are concerned.
For the column, we will only be betting either the middle column or the 3rd column. The 3rd column is the one that starts with 1 at the top and ends with 36 at the bottom. The middle column is obvious. If our e.c. bet is on Red, we will bet the 3rd column and if our e.c. bet is Black, we will bet the 2nd column.
Now, if you find switching bet selection triggers confusing or too complicated, you can just play a straight follow-the-last for both even chance/3rd column and the 2 dozens.
The reason I prefer follow-the-last with my 2 deviations is that I feel I do better on any given sequence than if I just pick a color to bet on, a column to bet on and 2 dozens to bet on, never changing.
Some advocate just picking one of the even chance bets and play that e.c. continuously because eventually it will even out with the other e.c. But, too often I have picked the wrong e.c. and if I had chosen the other one, I would have won easily.
So, just playing follow-the-last insures that you will have bets on either e.c. if it starts pulling ahead of the other. Unfortunately, your just trading a static e.c. bet for a chop vs streak bet. With a pure follow-the-last, if you're having a lot of chops, you will be going in the whole the same as if you chose the wrong e.c. If the table is streaking on your e.c., you be winning the same as if it were streaking on your chosen e.c.
I know that there are sequences that will cause me to lose more than I win with my suggested bet selection method, but I feel that by tracking more of the patterns, it will be rarer to run into a really bad series. My own personal "gambler's fallacy" blindness.
We always play the same unit size on each of the 4 bets. So, if we're play at the 1 unit level, we bet 1 unit on the e.c., 1 unit on each of the 2 dozens and 1 unit on the column.
We use the '2 up zero down' progression with a little tweak. Since the most we can lose is 4 units and the most we can win is 4 units, we will play 4 up zero down. Every time we lose 1, 2 or 4 units, we will write down enough 1's to represent that number to start our line. Any time we have four 1's or possibly more written down, we will start writing 2's. I say possible more, because if we have two 1's written down and we have a 4 unit loss, we will have to write four more 1's down which will give us six 1's before we start writing down 2's. The same principle applies to every level. As we win, we will cross off the appropriate number of 1's. Once all the 1's have been crossed off we will start betting 2 units on each of the 4 bets. Continue in this manner until you reach a new profit or at least a break even point. Then reset back to 1 unit on each.
GLC