Predicting Swings

[Mikeo]

Recently, while producing bankroll charts when testing the WBG Groups system, I couldn't help but notice the upward and downward swings on the graphs. The graphs look very similar to stock charts.

Here is a good example:

[attachimg=#1]

That said, I wonder if technical analysis would work on these graphs, as it does on stock charts.

I know that the game is random, and you may say that it can't be predicted, but people also say that you can't predict a stock's movement using technical analysis. Yet it is widely used, and effective, in predicting the probability of stock movement.

Has anyone heard of this being tried before?

Does anyone have or know of a program which could be used for this? It would allow for manual input, and the ability to graph preset indicators, or analysis formulae against the data. I know of stock market programs which allow manual input, but only from a file.

Any thoughts?


Thanks
Michael

[ThomasGrant]

Don't see how you can equate the stock market and roulette rng in the same league.
Though there are many that treat the stock market like a casino.
Recent events have shown that.

[winkel]

Hi Mikeo,

try to read this:

hxxp: :. dc-campus. net/showpost. php?p=118899&postcount=1

the problem is mostly that the triggers are to slow.

Just look at the charts in this topic and follow the different links to wikipedia or others and you will find a lot of information.

br
winkel

[Mikeo]

Hi Mikeo,

try to read this:

hxxp: :. dc-campus. net/showpost. php?p=118899&postcount=1

the problem is mostly that the triggers are to slow.

Just look at the charts in this topic and follow the different links to wikipedia or others and you will find a lot of information.

br
winkel

And now back on topic.

Thanks Winkel.

This is what I wanted to know. Has anyone ever looked into this? Not that I expected this to be something new, but you never know.

It was just a thought I had, noticing that wins and losses often come in streaks producing patterns, and wondering whether pattern prediction might be useful.

It may not work. I'm not yet convinced that it won't, though. Perhaps the post you mention will convince me. I'll have a look at it.

Michael

[Mikeo]

Don't see how you can equate the stock market and roulette rng in the same league.
Though there are many that treat the stock market like a casino.
Recent events have shown that.

Hi Thomas,

Perhaps I should have stated it differently.

I wasn't equating roulette to the stock market. I only mentioned the stock market as an example where pattern prediction is used. And I was wondering whether pattern prediction might also be useful in roulette.

I'm sorry that wasn't clear.


Thanks
Michael

[Bayes]

ok, back to the topic.

I once experimented with using the old-fashioned point 'n' figure charts on the even chances, with limited success. 

The thing is, financial markets are a very different animal from roulette outcomes. The indicators you see in technical analysis are based on psychology, the tendency for people to jump on trends etc.

All you really have in the random game of roulette is probability, or the statistics of what will happen over time. I don't see the necessity to go looking for answers in any place other than the probability distribution.

It's often said that probability is useless as a "predictor", because the stats are only averages - they apply in the long-term after many thousands of spins, and therefore don't help during your few hours at the tables.

This isn't really true, and it can't be, if you think about it. If events didn't conform in the short term (albeit "weakly") then they couldn't accumulate in the longer term to the expected probabilities. The fact is, that there is always a tendency for outcomes to arrange themselves in certain way, and this is objective and measurable, so it doesn't make any sense to bet randomly, or on the basis of some mystical phenomenon, gambler's fallacy notwithstanding.

This is nothing new, but it always tends to be interpreted as some form of fallacy, and that's not what I mean. Another way is saying that events tend to "balance". They do, but the trick is to not rely on a single probability as a guide. By that I mean; don't assume that because red and black will balance out you should always bet for it every time you see an imbalance (e.g. you see 10 blacks in a row, then bet red). You need to track multiple events - calculate the expectation for each event and act on the basis of deviations from it. The more events you have, the better. The accuracy will be improved if you act when multiple events "point" to the same outcomes. If there is conflict, don't make the bet.

I use this method on the ECs, but even with all that work, I still can't win more bets than I lose.
What it does though is keep the deviations to an acceptable level such that I can make a profit using money management and progressions.

[Mikeo]

Ok, back to the topic.

I once experimented with using the old-fashioned point 'n' figure charts on the even chances, with limited success. 

The thing is, financial markets are a very different animal from roulette outcomes. The indicators you see in technical analysis are based on psychology, the tendency for people to jump on trends etc.

Thanks Bayes.

It sounds as if you are well experienced and have given this some thought in the past.

It is true that in the background, psychology, and people jumping on a trend, etc. certainly affect a stock's price movement.

But some prominent indicators, used on stock charts, for example moving averages, don't care why or how the price moved, only that it did move. They don't consider any other factor, be it volume, psychology, or anything else. They act only on price movement.

So my thought is that this type of indicator may work on any chart which shows wave patterns. Because wins and losses in roulette often come in groups, these wave patterns are produced.

I haven't used point and figure charts, but I believe they are based solely on price, so if they don't work that is a negative. I did look at it in the past in relation to stocks, but I didn't really see it as an effective tool. Maybe I just couldn't figure it out.

This theory may indeed prove to be incorrect, but I have to look at it some more.

Thanks
Michael

[Bayes]

The thing about point and figure charts is that they're very simple to create (no calculations necessary) and they give a good visual overview. If you were looking at a marquee you would see patterns but not the relationships of the parts to the whole. Another nice feature is that that you can let X or O represent not only a single outcome, but any composite outcome, as long as you can divide the "field" of events into 2 states.

ie; normally you would have a one-to-one relationship between the X's and O's and say, Red and Black (so for every R there is an X, and for every O there is a B). But you could define spins to be taken in blocks of 3, then define X to be the outcome when Red is the majority (2 or 3) and O to be the outcome when Black is. Or you could split the outcomes into singles and streaks (anything equal or higher to 2), then X could represent the singles and O the streaks. Obviously how you define X and O will determine the characteristics of the graph.

I've used R & B in the examples, but they're not applicable only to the ECs. As long as you can split your outcomes into 2 states (boolean) you can use the charts, uses are limited only by your imagination.


[attachimg=#]

[Bayes]

Just for fun, I played a couple of hundred spins using a p & f chart to guide my bet selection, and made 21 units. It proves nothing of course, but it's a fun way to play! Notice that there are levels of 'support' and 'resistance', and the outcomes are confined to an 'envelope'. There are a lots of guidelines for using triggers in these charts, and although it might seem absurd to apply them to a random game like roulette, the prices in a lot of markets have a large random element too, especially if they're taken over the short term.

[attachimg=#]

[Fast Bucks]

Reminds me of looking at a FOREX bar chart. . . . Interesting.

[GLC]

Mikeo,

I just want to respond to your question with a system I read which  is supposed to be able to predict swing changes in roulette.  It can also be applied to craps and baccarat.

Unfortunately, it is a system developed by Izak Matatya who is considered by most of the posters on this forum to have never developed a winning system in his life.  I don't know how accurate that assessment is, but I have to say that I have never found that any of his systems are long-term winners.  I can't say that anyone else's is either.

This system is called The Magic Five System for flat betting even chance bets.  Basically, it submits that if we keep track of the two movements of the e.c.s, (that is repeats or chops) that we can predict a way to bet that is a long-term winner.  Izak says that streaking verses chopping moves up and down in waves and if we catch a wave moving up, at some point it will turn and start moving down.  If we catch it at the peak, we can usually come out ahead by at least 1 unit flat betting.  This means that most of the time we will be tracking, looking for a wave to develop.

I haven't taken the time to do anything but read about this system and so I can't comment on how valid it is.  Of course his examples show how everything works almost as if it's a sure winner.

I only mention it because it may give you some information to trigger some thoughts on your part that may actually be usefull.  You know how this works.  Any idea can be the beginning of something potentially useful.

I have a copy of the whole published system.  I don't know if it's copywrited, but if you are interested, I might be able to get a copy to you via e-mail or PM.

Let me know if you're interested.

George

[WannaWin]

Hello friends,

You can find magic five system here: link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=downloads;sa=view;id=24

Greetings,
WannaWin

[GLC]

Hello friends,

You can find magic five system here: link:://rouletteforum.cc/index.php?action=downloads;sa=view;id=24

Greetings,
WannaWin

Thanks for the help WannaWin.

G

[Mikeo]

Hi Mikeo,

try to read this:

hxxp: :. dc-campus. net/showpost. php?p=118899&postcount=1

the problem is mostly that the triggers are to slow.

Just look at the charts in this topic and follow the different links to wikipedia or others and you will find a lot of information.

br
winkel

Hi Winkel,

I did go to the forum, but since it is a German site, I had to rely on translation in the web browser.

Because the translation was likely poor, I did have a time trying to make sense of many of the posts. And in order to see the graphics, I would have to be  a member. I didn't feel that I should try to join the forum when I don't speak the language.

As far as I got, I did not see any conclusions drawn, but there was a fair bit of discussion on the subject.

Thanks
Michael

[Mikeo]

Bayes,

Thank you for the posts. I'll have to bone up on P&F Charts.


GLC and Wannawin,

I have downloaded Magic. I'll have a look.

Thanks