This is a very solid and somewhat complicated system but I think it will be worth some time to learn it.
It is played on the dozens or columns, but can be adapted to the lines or streets.
It's somewhat of a grinder in that in my testings so far, it wins about 1 unit in 4-5bets.
It's a double dozen bet but has a little twist to it.
The progression is using Ego's idea of having a progression that recovers previous losses for the 1st few bets and then recovers less and less the more losses you have before a win.
Here's the progression and I'm not saying this is the best progression there is but until we can come up with a better one, this one ain't bad.
1-2-3-4-5-6-8-11-15-20-26-34-44.
The system requires that we keep a progression for each of the 3 dozens.
We will be betting on the last 2 dozens to hit. I prefer this selection method because it keeps us betting on the hot dozens and if a dozen sleeps for a while we will be winning every bet while it sleeps.
We will start with 1 unit on all three dozens, but we will only bet 1-1 on the last 2 dozens to have hit.
Here's an actual session I played on my 0/00 airball machine today. I will explain how I played and it should answer most of your questions.
# Spun Doz 1 Doz 2 Doz 3
25 Doz 3 spins No bet
33 Doz 3 spins No bet
8 Doz 1 spins Bet on doz 1&3 @ 1-1
23 -1 +1 -1 Doz 2 spins We lose 2 because we were betting on doz 1&3 @ 1 unit each.
2 1 2 We adjust the units on each dozen depending on whether that doz won or lost. Since doz 1&3 lost, we increment their progression up 1 unit. Since doz 2 won, we leave it at 1 unit. Since doz 1&2 are the last 2 dozens to hit, we will be betting on them. And we always bet the same amount on both dozens and that amount is the highest amount of the 2 dozens. So in this case doz 1 has 2 units and doz 2 has only 1 unit so we bet 2 units on both dozens.
23 -2 +2 -2 this is the result after another 23 spins. Doz 2 wins so we win 2 units putting us at even. Since we are even we start tracking over with all 3 dozens at 1 unit.
That is an introduction to the system. I will continue tomorrow when I have time.
One of the strong points about this system is that since we bet the same amount on each dozen as the dozen of the 2 we're betting with the highest position in the progression, we can reduce the dozen that's losing the most with a win on either of the 2 dozens. This may not sound that impressive, but so far it has been very impressive at keeping our bets from escalating.
Cheers,
GLC
A few of the rules:
1. Always bet on the last 2 dozens to hit.
2. Increase bet size on a dozen per progression on each loss.
3. Decrease bet size on a dozen after a win.
4. Bet the amount of the largest dozen on each of the 2 dozens you are betting.
5. Only bet the amount necessary to reach +1.
6. Adjust the dozen that wasn't bet on per the above progression rules.
7. If we reach even or +1, reset to 1 unit on all 3 dozens.
Rule #3: I am considering the option of waiting until we win 2 times at a bet level before we decrease by 1 unit. This helps us recover more quickly. It also adds an element of risk in that if we lose we will be at a higher bet level. I think the higher risk is worth it considering the high hit rate.
Rule #4 needs explaining. Let's say that the last 2 dozens to hit were 2&3. The amounts for our dozens are doz 1 = 3 doz 2 = 4 and doz 3 = 2. Instead of betting 4 units on doz 2 and 2 units on doz 3 we will bet 4 units on both dozens. Thus ignoring the 2 units on doz 3. Whether we win or lose, both dozens are now dealt with as if they were at 4 units. If we lost the bet we would increase both doz 2 & doz 3 to 5 units. If we won our bet we would decrease both dozens to 3 units.
Here is a sequence in which we had a drawdown. Our 1st bet is on dozens 2&3.
Spun # Doz 1 Doz 2 Doz 3
1 1 1 These are our bets. We are betting 2&3.
5 +1 -1 -1 The result is a loss thus -2.
1 2 2 Our next bets. We are now betting 1&3.
2 2 2 Here we have adjusted Doz 1 to match doz 3.
13 -2 +2 -2 Doz 2 hits resulting in a loss. -6
3 1 3 Our next bet. Now betting on 1&2
3 3 3 Doz 2 adjusted to match doz 1.
25 -3 -3 +3 Doz 3 hits for a loss. -12.
4 4 2 Our next bets. We are betting doz 2&3.
4 4 4 Doz 3 adjusted to match doz 2.
36 -4 +4 +4 Doz 3 hits for a win. -12+4=-8.
5 3 3 Our next bet. Betting doz 2&3 still.
26 -5 +3 +3 Win. -8+3=-5.
Sorry, but I keep getting interrupted. Will continue later.
GLC
25 -3 -3 +3 Doz 3 hits for a loss. -12.
4 4 2 Our next bets. We are betting doz 2&3.
4 4 4 Doz 3 adjusted to match doz 2.
36 -4 +4 +4 Doz 3 hits for a win. -12+4=-8.
5 3 3 Our next bet. Betting doz 2&3 still.
26 -5 +3 +3 Win. -8+3=-5.
continuing:
# spun Doz 1 Doz 2 Doz 3
6 2 2 Our next bets. Betting doz 2&3
6 +6 -2 -2 Lose. -4-5=-9.
5 3 3 Our next bets. Betting doz 1&3
5 3 5 Doz 3 adjusted to match doz 1
28 +5 -3 +5 Win. -9+5=-4.
4 4 4 Our next bets. Betting doz 1&3
2 +4 -4 +4 Win. -4+4=0.
1 1 1 Our next bets reset because reached zero.
That's the system. I must admit that it's a little different way of playing the double dozens but like I said, so far it's staying steady. No big drawdowns yet. I know that there will be some, but will they be too little too late to defeat us?
I think this could be a good progression to use with some of the double dozen bets on the matrix methods instead of betting the last 2 dozens to hit.
GLC
P.S. Just because I couldn't think of a good name for the system doesn't mean it's not a good system.
Here's a spreadsheet with this system played to +30 units.
I am keeping track of each dozen according to +1 on a loss and -1 on a win.
I am betting the last 2 dozens to hit.
I am betting the highest amount on either of the dozens on both of the dozens no matter what position in the progression the dozen with the smaller amount has. But if I lose, I adjust the both dozens according to how they should be.
Examine the spreadsheet and if you have any questions, just ask.
Another section from 3000 live spins I got from F_LAT_INO.
A couple of difficult session, but didn't get to -50 draw down before coming back to even or +1.
Played to +20, but it took a pretty long session.
94 spins which takes about 94 minutes on my airball machine.
Note that I played a new tweak. I only adjusted the bet progression on the 2 dozens that I actually bet on. If I didn't play the dozen, I just leave it where it was until I reset all three or it comes into play. This makes it a safer system howbeit making it more of a grinder.
Still +20 units in 94 spins is about what I estimated the win rate to be.
Still seems to be a solid method.
It's a bear to test by hand.
GLC
Please be advised that I made 2 minor mistakes, 1 on each of my spreadsheets. They have been corrected now.
Now some analysis of the spreadsheets.
On the 1st spreadsheet I had 73 bets with 24 losses and 47 wins which is the normal ratio of 2 wins for every loss. Instead of breaking even, we won 28 units in 73 bets.
On the 2nd spreadsheet I had 90 bets with 36 losses and 54 wins. That's either 9 losses too many for normal or 18 wins too few for normal of 2 wins vs 1 loss. To come out +20 units ahead indicates that this system does have some credibility.
If this continues to perform this well, I might just have to move it to the "full systems" section.
Check it out and see what you think.
GLC
This attached spreadsheet is a continuation of the one in reply #4. I took it to +40
Took another 66 bets for the next 20 units. 21 losses and 45 wins. That looks like an easy section and it was except for one series that went for 36 spins. It had 15 losses and only 21 wins. That's a pretty big imbalance but the system still handled it pretty well.
I still haven't reached a draw down of -50 units.
GLC
Another 20 unit session.
As you can see, I'm using the rule of only adjusting the bet line on the 2 dozens that you were actually betting on. And, even though you can't see this from the spreadsheet, I always bet on both dozens the largest amount of either dozen.
Reset when reach even or +1.
Option: You can bet whatever the next bet should be even if it takes you plus more than 1. You win more units, but you can also have larger draw downs if you happen to lose on the bet that would have put you ahead if won. And, now you are going into a draw down betting larger units. So far the draw downs have been tame enough that playing this way wouldn't hurt you any, you'd just be making more units.
The only time playing for more than +1 would hurt you is it caused you to start a big draw down at a large enough level that you either hit your stop loss or the table bet limit. Otherwise you would always recover and have more units at the end of the session than shooting for 1 unit on each series.
As you can see, it took 55 bets to reach another +20units.
I had 18 losses and 37 wins which is normal ratio for double dozens.
Largest bet was 5-5.
Largest draw down was -14.
No real trouble on this session.
GLC
Since this isn't generating any interest, I think I'll stop posting results.
I've tested it for 300 spins, a drop in the bucket as we all know, and have won 90 units in those spins. Largest draw down was -45 units. Largest bet was 8-8, if my memory serves me right.
I'm sure there are losing sessions coming at me like a freight train, and with a little bad luck, I'll find my share of them.
I've played two sessions on my double zero airball machine to +20 units each.
No real problems.
Largest bet was 6-6.
I've yet to see a draw down of -50 units.
Should do better on a single zero, and it would be Katy-bar-the-door on a no zero wheel.
Oh well, as long as I want to stay legal, I guess no zero is just a dream.
Still considering posting this as a full system.
Cheers to all,
GLC
hi GLC
Great results so far im looking forward 2 trying it out once the kids let me have a go on my own computer lol
cheers
Quote from: ausjase on Dec 17, 11:31 PM 2011
hi GLC
Great results so far I'm looking forward 2 trying it out once the kids let me have a go on my own computer LoL
cheers
Have fun and let us know how you do. The more we get testing it, the sooner we will have a really bad series.
I'm thinking about a 200 unit bank should give us enough elbow room to win plenty of units.
I just finished a session on betvoyager double zero demo wheel. +30 in 49 spins. Playing on the last 2 dozens to spin. Sometimes we just can't lose.
Good luck and it's time for me to get some shut-eye,
GLC
Played another test on bet voyager single zero wheel demo mode.
+20 units.
62 bets.
-83 largest draw down.
12-12 largest bet.
Much harder session, although still won 1 unit for every 3 spins so well within my expected win rate of 1 unit for every 5 spins. This expected win rate is based on minimal testing, although I've tested so many systems that I can usually tell about what the win rate is within a short time. My only concern is that I haven't had a loss yet to see what that feels like. My win rate for now is about 1 unit for every 3-4 spins. After my first loss, that should drop to a more realistic rate.
Let me know how you do Ausjase. Especially if you have a loss. Right now I'm looking at a 200 unit stop loss target and play to a 20 unit win target. Since I haven't won 200 units yet, a loss now would put me in the hole. So far I've only had 1 draw down below -50 and that's -83. The scary thing is that once you are at -83 you're betting large enough bets that it wouldn't take many losses in a row to reach -200.
When I go to the casino for live testing, I am only playing for quarters and I take 1200 units with me. Seems like overkill but better safe than sorry.
LOL,
George
Hello GLC
"I am betting the highest amount on either of the dozens on both of the dozens no matter what position in the progression the dozen with the smaller amount has. But if I lose, I adjust the both dozens according to how they should be."
Does this mean that that the lower progression amount is only ignored for the bet itself. Then, win or lose, both dozens revert to their own respective amounts.
Trebor
Quote from: trebor on Dec 18, 02:36 PM 2011
Hello GLC
"I am betting the highest amount on either of the dozens on both of the dozens no matter what position in the progression the dozen with the smaller amount has. But if I lose, I adjust the both dozens according to how they should be."
Does this mean that that the lower progression amount is only ignored for the bet itself. Then, win or lose, both dozens revert to their own respective amounts.
Trebor
That's exactly right Trebor.
I have tried it both ways and this way seems to work the best.
Let's say we are betting on dozens 1 & 3. Doz 1 is at 3 and doz 3 is at 5. We would bet 5 on each dozen. The way you stated, if we win because the 1st dozen hit, the next would be 2 on the 1st doz and 6 on the 3rd dozen thus our next bet would be 6-6.
But we could leave the 1st dozen on 5 and adjust it down to 4 and adjust the 3rd dozen up to 6 for the next bet. That means we would be betting 6-6 either way. The difference would be when we lose and have to bet the 1 & 2. By resetting the low dozen even with the high dozen, we ratchet up our bets more quickly than the stated way.
The non-stated method is more aggressive and for those who like a quicker paced recovery, they may choose to play the second way. You must also be prepared to have larger draw downs but as long as we don't get into a really negative series, we will always recover both ways. This second way has some really big drawdowns so please test it thoroughly before playing this way. In all honesty I can't recommend it over the stated method.
Play the same numbers with both progression methods and see what I mean.
GLC
Thanks GLC that's the way I've played a couple of sessions. I like to test with real money but use low stakes that can't hurt me at all.
Just two so far. 20 units in 48 spins and 20 units in 50 spins. Didn't take note of the drawdown but will in future.
Robert
Trebor,
Thanks for your help in testing. The draw downs are not really that important until they start getting into very high numbers. Why? Well, if the draw downs are never more than say 50, which we know they are, then we can calculate how large our units can be based on the amount of money we have to invest.
Let's say we have $1000 and we're pretty sure that 100 will be the largest drawdown we'll encounter. That means that we can set our unit size to $10 and be generating $200 dollars for every 20 unit session.
On the other hand, if we have experiences 250 unit drawdowns in our testing we can only bet $4 units which reduces our session wins to $80.
Really, all we need is to know if you experience a draw down of more than 83 units which is the highest I've had so far.
I guarantee that 83 is far from the largest draw down we will experience. Unfortunately, in roulette, all things are possible. For example, in one of my sessions I was down 83 units and betting 12-12 on the dozens. There's nothing to preclude another very bad strike rate from continuing from this point. Since we started with 1-1 and progressed to 12-12 reaching -83, we could have a similar bad session starting at our 12-12 and progress to 24-24 which would put us another 996 units down for a total of -1079 units.
This reality is why in all roulette systems, we must have a stop loss to prevent disaster from occurring in worst case scenarios.
GLC
In reply #6 I had a series of bets in which I lost 15 and only won 21. Had I been flat betting $5 units, I would have lost 9 units, 15X10=-150. 21X5=+105. 150-105= -$45.
Instead I won 1 unit from that series using the progression. That's a $46 difference for a little extra risk and it turns a losing run into a winning run. Granted we would have been down more than $45 at one point, but in a few good hits, we pull back out to positive.
Remember, we either have to win more times than we lose when flat betting or if we lose more bets than we win, we need to win on larger bets than we lost on. This truth is the stark reality we're dealing with.
That's one reason why a solid bet progression like the bread winner method, with enough bankroll is one of the safest bet progressions, albeit, when playing that way we can have some horrendous draw downs which can last for quite a while.
Just some random musings.
GLC
For all those interested in this system. I have been testing it with a little different progression and it is performing well.
Instead of +1 on a loss and -1 on a win, I have been waiting until I lose 2 times in a row to add 1 and also to win 2 times in a row before I subtract 1. This wins our +1 unit almost as quickly as the +1/-1 after 1 win or loss but it reduces our draw downs by as much as 40%.
I determined this by replaying the above sessions using the safer progression and was surprised to see how the change improves the playability of the system.
Summary:
1. We still bet on the last 2 dozens to hit (or your favorite selection method)
2. We track each dozen separately as far as the progression line goes
3. We only adjust the bet size of the 2 that we just bet on
4. We always bet the larger bet size of the 2 dozens we're betting on
5. We increase by 1 unit only after losing 2 times in a row on that dozen
6. We decrease by 1 unit only after winning 2 times in a row on that dozen
7. We shoot for +1 and then reset to beginning of progression for all 3 dozens
8. If a win and our next bet brings us to even, we reset also
9. If a win on our next bet will put us at more than +1, we reduce our bet to produce +1 (this is optional. You can bet whatever the progression calls for and just win the extra units understanding that the risk is if you lose the bet and go into a losing series, you will be starting at a larger unit loss)
Cheers,
GLC
Attached is a spreadsheet with a session to +20 using the new +1 after 2 losses in a row and -1 after 2 wins in a row.
Notice that our maximum draw down was only -20.
Also, only 74 placed bets which keeps in line with our projected win ratio of 1 unit for every 4-5 spins. Of course, this was not a very difficult session.
I'm still liking this new progression method.
GLC
Thank you GLC!
If this system works, it would be perfect if somebody makes a traker. ::)
My first test on double zero spins ended at +20 units in 67 spins using up 1 step after 2 losses and down 1 step after 2 wins.
Quote from: jarabo002 on Dec 20, 05:32 AM 2011
Thank you GLC!
If this system works, it would be perfect if somebody makes a traker. ::)
It does work Jarabo002. How well it works is still to be determined. After all, there's nothing unique about the bet selection method, it's the bet progression that is the strong suit and there are many on this forum that will tell us that you can't overcome the odds with a progression. I'm just waiting for someone to post a losing run.
Yes, a tracker would make testing go much quicker. But, so far none of our programmers have seen enough to warrant investing the time in a tracker. I think we need to provide them with some more encouragement.
I have decided to play to 20 units each day and see how long before I lose my bank of 1200 units. See if I can make it as far as Chris did with his 10 units per day test for 30 days.
By the way Chris, if you're reading, I hope you're doing okay and everything is getting stabilized in your life.
George
Test #2 on double zero spins. Ended at +20 units and it took 97 spins. Seemed like a marathon session. I hit -51 units twice but it came back and ended at +20! I did get to the 11 unit bet.
I finally had a session from hell.
My 1st loss of -206
Was betting 12-12 when I passed -200
Only took 55 bets
I had 28 losses and 27 wins
Wow! 55 bets on double dozen with 1 more loss than win when you're supposed to have 36 wins to 19 losses. That's 9 too few wins and 9 to many losses.
I'm a little dizzy after that session, but it goes to show you that the most unbelievable bad sequence of spins can happen at any time. That's why you should never bet real money on this game if you can't afford to lose it.
Okay, I'm not too discouraged because I've tested a lot of double dozen systems and I can't remember ever having a sequence of losses like this one. Now that I've gotten it out of the way, I don't expect to see one like it again the rest of my life.
It was getting late, so I didn't have time to continue to see if it would have recovered before I got much deeper in the hole.
Earlier I said that 200 units should be a reasonable buy-in so I'm going to stick with that. I'm still up about 30 units since I started testing this including a couple of real games I played at the casino.
I will continue with my 20 unit per day test until I start running into too many losing sessions indicating that this may not be as good of a system as I thought. I may change the bet selection method to something not so mechanical.
Does anyone have a good suggestion for a double dozen bet selection method that doesn't leave us tracking too long before getting to make a bet?
Maybe a method like Divide and Conquer would be better or Code4. Any thoughts??
I'm not surprised at anything except how bad the hit rate can get!
GLC
P.S. There were only 4 losses in a row 1 time so a 5 step double dozen martingale would have won 27 units. 1-1,3-3,9-9,27-27,81-81. Of course a loss of 5 in a row would set you back 242 units. Hmmmmmmmmm
Test #3 +20 units in 45 spins. Easy session.
+10
51 bets
Largest bet 8-8
Largest draw down -34
Had 1 series of 26 bets to reach +1
Ran out of time so couldn't continue on to +20.
Cheers,
GLC
+20
84 bets
8-8 largest bet size
-45 largest draw down
I'm noticing that this is just a gradual increase in bet sizes until we finally hit a run of 3, 4 or 5 in a row to get us fully recovered. Usually 5 or 6 in a row will recover for us and if we get 3 or 4 in a row a couple of times with only 1 or 2 losses in between it will also recover. Same for 3 in a row. Two or 3 three in a rows in close proximity to each other accomplishes the same thing as a 5 in a row.
I'm thinking that the following progression might be just as effective.
1-1
1-1
1-1
2-2
2-2
2-2
3-3
3-3
3-3
4-4
4-4
4-4
etc...
Stay at the current level as long as you are winning until you have fully recovered. I've tested this a couple of times and it wins the same as our +1/-1 after two losses or wins. It's a little more volatile but not by much and we don't have to use so much effort tracking each dozen separately.
Still evolving for me.
GLC
Check out my post "The 2nd Plus the Penultimate" in the Notepad section for some additional thoughts on a similar system to this one!
Test #4 I went to the end of the progression. The loss was well over the -300 unit mark. Had a lot of zero's come up (double zero spins) plus a lot of other losing spins.
Quote from: dennisbelle on Dec 23, 10:48 AM 2011
Test #4 I went to the end of the progression. The loss was well over the -300 unit mark. Had a lot of zero's come up (double zero spins) plus a lot of other losing spins.
That's 2 killer series to date. I usually move on to greener pastures at this point.
I'm going to look at Warrior's DC4 system and test it. If it's as good as he says, it'll be worth digging it out of the mothballs. He shouldn't be the only one making money on it.
GLC