P.A :PREACHING about HG!

[6th-sense]

so a basic way of looking at it is to combine Priyanka,s rolling 18 number method make it slightly longer say 30 spins using newest result and  getting rid of oldest result...not  using numbers but all ec,s until a favorable ratio comes your way to start betting and play through the next 81 spins...bit of tracking involved but a simple program could be built to do this for you for all ec,s not just red and black

[P.A]

so a basic way of looking at it is to combine Priyanka,s rolling 18 number method make it slightly longer say 30 spins using newest result and  getting rid of oldest result...not  using numbers but all ec,s until a favorable ratio comes your way to start betting and play through the next 81 spins...bit of tracking involved but a simple program could be built to do this for you for all ec,s not just red and black

Hi Sixth,
with respect.

If we are very confident that our selection, will...,
say 50%, ratio.

Then just wait for the, as u said, "favorable',

like so, as many 'absolute losses', then just bet flatbet till profit..
the stipulation, is whether the selection, will consistently...
" at or around 50%"???...

[LuckoftheIrish]

U waltz into the casino,
at the roulette table,

u see red and a zero had hit for ten streaks.

U understand that EC roulette ,history of B&M casino...

there never less than 30 BLACK hit in 100spins. Never!

Now, after the 10losses, there will be..

at LEAST ,

30BLACK, in NEXT 90spins!

The highest risk now, is 60red, and 30black.

[u see that 60x1=60, 30x2=60,
breakeven...

that in theory ,
black need to win at least twice, the red,
for u to win at least 1unit, after, or before 90spins.]


Now,
How are u going to bet,
when u are very confident,
that,
there will be NO LESS, than 30BLACK,
in next 90 spins???

suddenly, ...

all the ambiguous bet selection,

and all the ambiguous progression,

are not important...
   ...ANYMORE!

Do u...
bang your table, and shout...

EUREKA!, or,
yes!yes!yes!,
or
WOW!,wow!,wow!,
or
HAHAHA!, or

HEHEHE!

now???

This is an example how u bet, when u really understand what I preached all along...
Thanks.

Just the other day I have run a comprehensive test tracking H/L bet selection (but could very well be R/B, O/E etc).  I tested 10 million 100 spin series.  The worst case was only 26 wins in 100 spins.  So you can get worse than 30 wins.

[atlantis]

Hi LuckoftheIrish,

Thanks for your extensive spin stats on the appearance of the EC's over 100 spins.

A.

[Priyanka]

Then just wait for the, as u said, "favorable',

like so, as many 'absolute losses', then just bet flatbet till profit..

P.A. â€" My 2 cents. It might save you some time and effort. “Waiting for a random event” cannot help you figure out an edge. Neither will it help you control the variance. Take an example, waiting for 20 reds before betting on black. As extreme as it sounds 21 reds is just around the corner. This is a simple example. However complex you think, however complex selections you pick up it will all grind down to this point. Next spin is independent of the previous spin and only a collection of spins if seen as a collection and played as a collection can obey the laws of probability. Else, you will always hit your personal permanence with the respect to the variance.

Coming to the breaking down of spins. Sure it is a good tool to see how individual blocks constitute to the bigger picture, but adjustments need to be taken into account in terms of the variability. 30/90 cannot be split to 3/9. 30/90 cannot even be split into two blocks of 15/45. It will go something along the lines of 10/45 and 20/45. The lower the number of spins you take into account the variance will be higher. This is very apparent from the fact that 0/9 is a possible scenario which most of us must have seen. This random variance cannot be beaten. It is the TRUTH however difficult it is to digest.

One possible solution for beating this expectation is not in keeping all your eggs in one basket. It will always lead to a negative expectation, which is the nature of the game. However if you are able to find a way of alternating your bet selections in a predefined frequency you might be able to turn it into a positive result. Going after variance breaking point is JUST A FALLACY as no such breaking point exists. Let me explain a common simple example that is used to tell how does this “diversification” of your games work.

There is a game where you need to take 100 steps. You start with £100. At the end of every step you take, you are allowed to choose one of the following options.
Option 1 : You lose £1 for every step.
Option 2 : You are allowed to count the money in your hand. If it is even you win £3. If it is odd you win £5.

Now if you keep on choosing Option 1, you will lose all your money at the end of 100th step.
If you keep choosing only Option 2, you will lose all your money at the end of 100th step.

Both options individually played will lose you money. But consider the option, where you start with Option 2 in the first step, Option 1 in the second step and keep alternating. You would have doubled your money when you have taken the 100th step. Fascinating right! 

But be mindful of the fact that not always both the options played alternatively will give you the positive result. Consider you chose Option 1 in the first step and Option 2 in the second step. You will have no money to play after a few steps . The key is finding the correct balance on when to mix what option and for how long. Parachute progression is one attempt to apply this alternating games paradox knowingly or unknowingly (not that it turned out to be successful)

My sincere advice is if you need to device your own HG, there is no point in looking for going for the edge of variance as such a limit do not exist. You need to understand the cycles that happen in roulette primarily on numbers and you need to play a game that consists of multiple games.  That will be time spent very constructive.

[atlantis]

Priyanka wrote:

Coming to the breaking down of spins. Sure it is a good tool to see how individual blocks constitute to the bigger picture, but adjustments need to be taken into account in terms of the variability. 30/90 cannot be split to 3/9. 30/90 cannot even be split into two blocks of 15/45. It will go something along the lines of 10/45 and 20/45. The lower the number of spins you take into account the variance will be higher. This is very apparent from the fact that 0/9 is a possible scenario which most of us must have seen. This random variance cannot be beaten. It is the TRUTH however difficult it is to digest.

Priyanka, this makes total sense to me and bears out my findings also with the breaking down into smaller sets.
PA, it is difficult for me to see how you can argue with this or refute it entirely?

Is Steve also right what he posted...  and if so then am I mistakenly prone to labouring under a misapprehension and misconstruing the reality of the situation? Wouldn't be the first time. And now I have begun to have doubts about this - not a good sign!

Although I am winning a small amount of games still and am happy with that - maybe it is really down to just good luck after all - and I just imagine I have the upper hand? I am quite willing to accept this may turn out to be the case. I really hope not though.

PA, we could all do without the riddles from now on - please put forward some concrete example that demonstrate your principles in practice so that we can analyze and scrutinise the prudent checks and balances that you suggest we put in place for success when we play a session using these guiding principles which you are espousing.

A.

[Turner]

, there is no point in looking for going for the edge of variance as such a limit do not exist.

Correct.

It all boils down probability. These probabilities occur because of the phenomenally high amount of combinations within 37 numbers. You cant play with the notion they arnt there.

And as your Chartered Airbus 330 fight to Spain has a catastrophic mechanical failure, you have around 2 mins to live.

Just enough time to think about the bet you placed before you boarded....and how rich you are.

1$ on the plane crashing.

18,000,000 : 1

On average, 3 or 4 Chartered flights crash each year in Europe

Which ones last year? Simple, look at past histories

Which ones next year?

[LuckoftheIrish]

PA says that you must find a bet selection that stays close to even.  The problem is no such bet selection exists.  I have tested hundreds, maybe thousands in the last decade.  Any bet selection on even chances can possibly only win 26 or fewer times in 100 tries.

[P.A]

Dear respected Turner, Priyanka,Atlantis,Luck,Sixth, and others,
Thanks for your replies.
=========
[30w/100, and 69/200 is the B&M casino, 26/100, I think is RnG.
the probability is very low for usto stumble upon them in casino...]
==============

I see that after a VARIANCE happened, the the following sequences will present itself as 'within the math', that easily beaten with even the simple LABBY start with '1'...or any simple progression.

Below a sample that I simply copied, the very first in the list of record...and simply mark  a few VARIANCES that I mark from XXXXX to YYYYYY,

   And u will see ,variance hapened,  after that, the sequences will in math expectation,


u will see the risk is ,after a variance, there will be another variance.
--------------

It just, when an abnormal, then normal will follow, in math expectation.




Spielbank Hamburg
Tisch 0001
01.01.2001
Gewinnzahlen:
17 
   3
  18
35 
24 
  30
31 
  25
  30
  16
  27
31 
  32
15 
  18
   3
11  xxxxxxxxxxxx
  19
  19
31   
20 
20   
   5
20 
26 
   3
31 
11 
13 
17  yyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
  30xxxxxxxxxxxxx
  30
  34
----
  14
   7
  19
24 
10 
  30
  18
  27
  36
  36yyyyyyyyyyyy
17  xxxxxxxxxx
33 
   
24 
29 
  19
26 
00
26 
  32
   3
35 
13 
----
29  yyyyyyyyyy
   3
  25
6   
31 
   9
  16
4   
13 
20 
   5
26 
13 
33 
  16
24 
  12
  34
  12
20  xxxxxxxxxxxxx
----
   1
10 
10 
  30
   3
00
22 
24 
35 
  25
13 
17 
   9
2   
17 
35 
35 
26  yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
   7
----
  12
35 
   1
  12
   1
  16
31 
10 
29 
   3
17 
  27
28   
35 
----
  36
  14
22 
  34
20 
  32
11 
22 
  25
2 
----
4 
6 
33 
10 
  18xxxxxxxxx
  12
   3
   7
  36
  34
8 
35 
  36
11 
11 
----
  12
  16
  19
  32yyyyyyyyyy
31 
28 
   1
29 
  36
----
  30
2 
26 
33 
  32
15 
17 
22 
  23
----
8 
   5
   5
20 
31 
00
15 
  34
   7
  32
6  xxxxxxxxx
----
26 
8 
33 
24 
  12
   3
2 
10 
31 
20 
  34
26 
8 
33 
26 
29 
29 
  18
----
4  yyyyyyyyyy
   9
   1
33 
31 
   3
10 
  18
  18
  27
  25
15 
20 
13 
  16
28   
----
2 
00
  25
26 
20 
   3
31 
17 
   3
  12
  36
13 
----
15 
26 
  18
   9
26 
  23
  27
11 
  36
  16
   1
24 
   7
----
   5
00
   1
00
24 
28 
----
  34
22 
  27
  16
33 
  19
15 
  34
29 
15 
  18
10 
11 
  18
----
24 
  19
28 
  23
29 
  27
20 
   5
31 
22 
   1
28 
33 
----
   9xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  27
8 
  19
26 
  23
4 
  34
  14
  36
22 
  34
  14
  12
  21
6 
  25
   3
  12
----
   5
  25yyyyyyyyyyyy
13  xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
31 
35 
24 
  30
  27
31 
26 
  23
   7
4 
2 
15 
35 
----
31 
   1
8 
10 
29 
8  yyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
  25xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  21
  19
  32
6 
  32
33 
  23
  19
----
  19
00
   3
20 
  21
15 
2 
00
  30
  36
  12
  27
----
  16
   7yyyyyyyyyyyy
6 
26 
  34
  30
20 
8 
  18
  14
  23
  18
----
   3
  25
29 
  18
31 
  34
4 
  25
  27
  36
2 
====
Anzahl Spiele:  340
H剈figkeiten:
  0   8
  1   9
  2   8
  3  15
  4   6
  5   7
  6   6
  7   8
  8   8
  9   5
10   9
11   7
12  11
13   8
14   5
15   9
16   9
17   8
18  13
19  11
20  13
21   3
22   7
23   7
24  10
25  11
26  15
27  11
28   6
29  10
30  10
31  16
32   8
33  10
34  12
35  10
36  11
Schwarz     166
Rot         166
Pair        167
Impair      165
Passe       181
Manque      151
1. Dutzend   99
2. Dutzend  103
3. Dutzend  130
1. COL      112
2. COL      106
3. COL      114
1- 3        32
4- 6        19
7- 9        21
10-12        27
13-15        22
16-18        30
19-21        27
22-24        24
25-27        37
28-30        26
31-33        34
34-36        33
1- 6        51
4- 9        40
7-12        48
10-15        49
13-18        52
16-21        57
19-24        51
22-27        61
25-30        63
28-33        60
31-36        67
Uhrzeit Spielbeginn:
15.00
Uhrzeit letzte Zahl/Spielende:
02.57

[P.A]

if u open any record data of , say , Hamburg,
U will never see any less than 30w/100spins.
or 69win/200spins.

Ok, now U see that , there will be NEVER less than 30black, or red in 100spins.
Now u wait for a ...

streak of losses, where there huge absolute losses,
[where win minus loss=0], or just simply streak of ten losses,
[it always happen],

then, from the very first spin, where the streak START,

minus the winning from 30, [ ASSUMED WORST 30],

and calculate the  remaining spins.[100spins minus previous spins].
[Absolute loss: the more the BETTER]
===============

eg.
from first to 15spins, there only 2win, thus there 11absolute loss..Thus 30 assumed worst, minus 2win=28...there will be no less than 28win,

in remaining 85spins...that assumed to be the WORST...

How u going to win, with any progression, if u very confident that , there will be no less than 28hit /85=32% ???

at worst there be ONLY 28w/in next 85spins.=32.9%.

or 67w/185spins,=36% [based on worst only 69w/200]
------------------------------------------

at BEST. there will be positive.

Averages, there will be within math.
Thanks.

[LuckoftheIrish]

I understand, but even knowing you will get a 33% hit rate does not help, because a simple labby can not survive every possibility.  There is no progression alive that could win every 200 spins.

[P.A]

P.A. â€" My 2 cents.

Hi respected Priyanka,
thanks for your post.
Appreciate them.


I try my best to answer yours, as my English not at par...hehehe

================

Coming to the breaking down of spins. Sure it is a good tool to see how individual blocks constitute to the bigger picture, but adjustments need to be taken into account in terms of the variability. 30/90 cannot be split to 3/9. 30/90 cannot even be split into two blocks of 15/45. It will go something along the lines of 10/45 and 20/45. The lower the number of spins you take into account the variance will be higher. This is very apparent from the fact that 0/9 is a possible scenario which most of us must have seen. This random variance cannot be beaten. It is the TRUTH however difficult it is to digest.

30/90 cannot be split to 3/9. 30/90 cannot even be split into two blocks of 15/45. It will go something along the lines of 10/45 and 20/45. The lower the number of spins you take into account the variance will be higher. This is very apparent from the fact that 0/9 is a possible scenario which most of us must have seen.

============
yes , U are right, the short spins will definitely have deadly variance.
The truth is we cant bet and win every season.

[It will go something along the lines of 10/45 and 20/45.]

if we see 10/45 in first half, then easy win, in 20/45.

if 30/90 really happen, it will also has clustered win, in early or later half...
this in line with variance avoidance...
----
seems hard to beat..hehehee

P.A. â€" My 2 cents. It might save you some time and effort. “Waiting for a random event” cannot help you figure out an edge. Neither will it help you control the variance. Take an example, waiting for 20 reds before betting on black. As extreme as it sounds 21 reds is just around the corner. This is a simple example. However complex you think, however complex selections you pick up it will all grind down to this point. Next spin is independent of the previous spin and only a collection of spins if seen as a collection and played as a collection can obey the laws of probability. Else, you will always hit your personal permanence with the respect to the variance.
xxxxxxxxxxxx
After I see 20reds, or absolute losses,

of 20, we bet red, not BLACK!!!,[ this is where the MISUNDERSTANDING , the fault is mine, for not clear!]

and bet that the remaining red ,
will hit within MATH EXECTATION...50/50...

We assume, after an ABNORMAL math, then a NORMAL math will happen.because of 50/50,

[ abnormal, is just out of 50/50...]
we assume that 50/50 will soon DICTATE ...

We just wait for the VARIANCE to happened, and the assume the NORMAL within math will happen then..just like ...

abnormal,
normal,
abnormal,
normal,
so on,

where we cant predict how long the abnormal sequences will go,we just take risk.

xxxxxxxxxxxx



Coming to the breaking down of spins. Sure it is a good tool to see how individual blocks constitute to the bigger picture, but adjustments need to be taken into account in terms of the variability. 30/90 cannot be split to 3/9. 30/90 cannot even be split into two blocks of 15/45. It will go something along the lines of 10/45 and 20/45. The lower the number of spins you take into account the variance will be higher. This is very apparent from the fact that 0/9 is a possible scenario which most of us must have seen. This random variance cannot be beaten. It is the TRUTH however difficult it is to digest.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

30/90, 69/200record. are, what we assumed the WORST.

and we bet till the last drop...with progression.

flatbet just a theory...unlikely posibility.]

xxxxxxxxxxxx

One possible solution for beating this expectation is not in keeping all your eggs in one basket. It will always lead to a negative expectation, which is the nature of the game. However if you are able to find a way of alternating your bet selections in a predefined frequency you might be able to turn it into a positive result. Going after variance breaking point is JUST A FALLACY as no such breaking point exists. Let me explain a common simple example that is used to tell how does this “diversification” of your games work.

xxxxxxxxxxxx
Variance is a 50/50, out of norm, and the subsequence sequences will soon 50/50, and we bet on that it will 50%.
with progression.

the breakeven, just an academic theory, for member to understand what to expect if WORST.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx



There is a game where you need to take 100 steps. You start with £100. At the end of every step you take, you are allowed to choose one of the following options.
Option 1 : You lose £1 for every step.
Option 2 : You are allowed to count the money in your hand. If it is even you win £3. If it is odd you win £5.

Now if you keep on choosing Option 1, you will lose all your money at the end of 100th step.
If you keep choosing only Option 2, you will lose all your money at the end of 100th step.

Both options individually played will lose you money. But consider the option, where you start with Option 2 in the first step, Option 1 in the second step and keep alternating. You would have doubled your money when you have taken the 100th step. Fascinating right! 

But be mindful of the fact that not always both the options played alternatively will give you the positive result. Consider you chose Option 1 in the first step and Option 2 in the second step. You will have no money to play after a few steps . The key is finding the correct balance on when to mix what option and for how long. Parachute progression is one attempt to apply this alternating games paradox knowingly or unknowingly (not that it turned out to be successful)

My sincere advice is if you need to device your own HG, there is no point in looking for going for the edge of variance as such a limit do not exist. You need to understand the cycles that happen in roulette primarily on numbers and you need to play a game that consists of multiple games.  That will be time spent very constructive.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

We are looking for variance to happen FIRST, because variance is out of synce  the 50/50 .
when the Variance begin to normalise, we bet the remaining will 50/50.

it simply wait for ABNORMAL, then bet the 50/50 NORMAL...
with mild progression, cut loss...

Thanks Priyanka.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[P.A]

I understand, but even knowing you will get a 33% hit rate does not help, because a simple labby can not survive every possibility.  There is no progression alive that could win every 200 spins.

Thanks LuckoftheIrish,

I understand your worrying, that 33%, may happen,
and 33% cant survive, any progression.

That 33%, is just another strategy, where u wait for some absolute losses, and then regard the worst 30/100 willhappen, and act accordingly.

1] 33%, is just what we assumed the WORST,
that could happen...after the variance streaks.
and IMPOSSIBLE to beat.

Labby start with "1", can only win 1, after 33% plus...

2]WE still need variance avoidance when we bet the spins, so that we not trapped, when the 33% really hit....say stop bet when 4loss streak happen, and bet again after a win trigger, so we wont trapped in another long losing streaks.



3]In normal day, there always within math expectation, but worst may happen,
That is why we need to accept that , sometime it just impossible, and we need to cut loss...
That is why we need to win x per session, and cut loss=y per session, the losses of y, recoup by next few x winning session.


The hurtful truth, is , impossible to win every session...
need to cut loss once in a while..

[LuckoftheIrish]

How many spins have you tested your strategy on?

Thanks.

[P.A]

expert may skip, as this for newbies , and repetitive and boring.
-----------------------

Ladies, and Gentlemen.

The Variance issue, is very difficult to understand.

In the worst 69win/200spins, or the theoretically worst,
[or worst 30win/100spins.
We may find it hard to win.
when there constantly only 3/10spins!]
------------------

One of the bet selection, that BLEEP posted other thread,
is bet six  EC, at the same time, with trigger,
thus , if a very long variance, of a single EC hit,

they will be diluted by the others hits.
But that also dilute the hot hits..hehehe...

There, are more than two ways to avoid variance.

[Please remember , we DO NOT predict, foresee, or control variance.
We just wait and see, what happen, and act according to laws of maths.]


1]Wait to see, a variance to happened, then act accordingly.

say,
if first 50spins, has only15 win, then assuming the worst, 30/100, we risk that the next 50spins will have only 15wins!

But that is the worst extreme...there always element of risk.

2]Avoid the variance, STOP betting, when losses become streak.
say,
stop after 3losses, or 4losses, when betting EC.

or stop bet when , after 4,5,or 6 losses streaks, when betting single dozen. this way we may reduce the losses,

The other strategy is, if we see,
say,
only a few hit in 30spins,
then we bet the next, 30spins, after the win normalise,
as do or die staking.

That mean, if the next 30spins=within math, then we win X.
if next 30spins=DEBACLE, we lose =Y,
we need to stop after 30spins.
then lick our wound, and see that another few session, will win more X to recoup the Y losses...
Do we have choice?

Variance will happen, on and off, but as the casino always keep eyes on the wheel, so the are balanced, we are assured that variance wont go very long , and rtm will always have the last words.

Say, u see,
there only 6hits, in previous 30spins, when when normalize, that mean the variance should over, and the 50/50, albeit zero should be in orders,
then we bet that the next 30spins will have around 15wins.
and that any labby will win easily...if the hit only 33%plus one...
but what if the next 30spins, has less than 33%?
=============

now the trillion dollar question.

Then u have to cut loss, or think out any strategy that can win hit that LESS than 33%plus one...!!!
Does that strategy exist???
Think hard, very hard.

please...
Dont PM me !, for answer, please.
Think hard.
[u may eureka! hahaha! wowowowow!!!]