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Solve this, solve the HG.

Started by daveylibra, May 17, 02:42 PM 2018

Previous topic - Next topic

0 Members and 4 Guests are viewing this topic.

jekhb76

First try. using a +1 / -1 and reset to 1 on a loss. started from spin 1 with 1 unit on red.

jekhb76

Second try. again +1 / -1

jekhb76

well we can dump +1 - 1

The General

Quote from: jekhb76 on May 24, 02:58 PM 2018
well we can dump +1 - 1

Wow and you tested a whole 60 spins so you must know the true long term results! ::)
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

daveylibra

Are you using the equation, and rounding up to an integer? Resetting after every 10?
I don't know about the +1, -1, but if you just used the equation, without any bet limits, then a failure must mean less than 18 from 60, surely?

daveylibra

by the way, how could you code it so quick?

The General

Quote from: daveylibra on May 24, 03:11 PM 2018
by the way, how could you code it so quick?

The better question is why did you feel you needed to test it in the first place?
Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

jekhb76

Quote from: The General on May 24, 03:33 PM 2018
The better question is why did you feel you needed to test it in the first place?
The better question is;  Why on earth are you still roaming around on this forum, and why aren't you banned a long time ago.

daveylibra

Hi General!

Don't you think there is any value in trying for 18 wins from 60?

vladir

Quote from: daveylibra on May 24, 03:08 PM 2018
Are you using the equation, and rounding up to an integer? Resetting after every 10?
I don't know about the +1, -1, but if you just used the equation, without any bet limits, then a failure must mean less than 18 from 60, surely?

If hes using +1/-1 then I guess hes not using it.
+1/-1 means +1 on a loss, -1 on a win (or the oposite?) . Anyway this gives an up and down progression on its own, wich implies hes not using any other progression.
"In God we trust; all others must bring data", W. Edwards Deming

The General

Quote from: daveylibra on May 24, 06:10 PM 2018
Hi General!

Don't you think there is any value in trying for 18 wins from 60?

Your question is vague., but the answer is of course NO.

Basic probability and The General are your friend.
(Now hiring minions, apply within.)

daveylibra

You Will Have 18 hits min. Out of  60 spins. I ran over 100.000 spins last week and the lowest hitrate i got was 19/60.
-Quote from Jek.

Then surely it's a good idea to shoot for 18 from 60?

Is it possible to see the spin numbers from that last graph, please?

vladir

Quote from: daveylibra on May 25, 10:37 AM 2018
You Will Have 18 hits min. Out of  60 spins. I ran over 100.000 spins last week and the lowest hitrate i got was 19/60.
-Quote from Jek.

Then surely it's a good idea to shoot for 18 from 60?

Is it possible to see the spin numbers from that last graph, please?

I run over 10.000.000, min was 12 hits from 60. Average was 29,2.
"In God we trust; all others must bring data", W. Edwards Deming

daveylibra

OK thanks, interesting stats.
Notice if we fail on 3/10, not once but 5 times, thats at most 8 from 50. We should get our 3 wins on the next 10.
(I know the wheel has no memory etc, but I'm pointing out that 6 fails in a row would be v. rare.
now what if we say -
( (Drawdown+1) / Expected wins ) +1

Then aren't we gaining 1 unit on every win? So we would not have to continue to the end.

daveylibra

Quote from: daveylibra on May 25, 10:37 AM 2018
You Will Have 18 hits min. Out of  60 spins. I ran over 100.000 spins last week and the lowest hitrate i got was 19/60.

So what is wrong with this logic.....

Wait until we see 7 of an EC (not long if we track each EC)
We then shoot for 18 hits from 53...   (60-7)
Now 18*3=54 which is 1/3 + 1 of 53
So we can use a simple labby to gain our 18 hits. Or a list limited to 36 111s (18hits).

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