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Bankroll size and daily targets

Started by Johnlegend, Jun 10, 08:38 AM 2012

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Johnlegend

Quote from: Robeenhuut on Jun 10, 11:27 AM 2012
Absolutely John. that's my goal n of because i don't reach it every day.  I just hardly ever play any progression anymore just mostly outside bets or ECs. Being pegged as a math boy i just figured that any progression is pointless n dangerous 2 yr pocket.  ;D

That's where you are so very wrong Robeenhuut. Its all starting to make sense now. 30% is plain stupidity. Take away the zero and you are in the right ballpark. That is why I can use a progression and progress Robeenhuut. Its still not even 1/20th of my total BR. Everything is relative. Now that I realize your impatience to go forward is your shortcoming. Everything about you makes sesnse.

Bayes

You can't avoid trade-offs, what you gain in one respect you lose in another. So yes it might be easier to make 3 units rather than 30, but in order for those 3 units to be worthwhile your unit size has to be correspondingly large. And if your unit size is large then any drawdowns are obviously going to cost more (or the same) in absolute terms compared to someone who's target is 30 units but is using smaller unit sizes.

There's no real advantage one way or the other, it comes down to your personal preference and style of play.

There's nothing wrong with having a target, but just don't think it gives you any advantage having a small % target - it doesn't. That's just the classic gambler's fallacy of believing if you quit while you're ahead than you'll win (hit & run in another guise).
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

TwoCatSam

That's just the classic gambler's fallacy of believing if you quit while you're ahead than you'll win (hit & run in another guise).

All........

The simple truth is that IF you could get ahead and IF you could always quit, you would always win. 

IF......

Thank you, Bayes!

Sam
If dogs don't go to heaven, when I die I want to go where dogs go.  ...Will Rogers

Johnlegend

Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jun 10, 03:31 PM 2012
That's just the classic gambler's fallacy of believing if you quit while you're ahead than you'll win (hit & run in another guise).

All........

The simple truth is that IF you could get ahead and IF you could always quit, you would always win. 

IF......

Thank you, Bayes!

Sam
No fallacy Sam. I aways quit ahead. It makes perfect sence. If I play for just 3 to 6 units a session. I am far more likely to achieve this. Those 3 to 6 units soon add up.Instead of busting a gut and trying to increase my BR by 30%. As Robeenhuut suggested. You don't expose yourself to randoms fickle trends too long. that's the golden secret.

When I take on Bayes version of a roulette game I will play more aggressively than usual with just a 200 unit BR. Aiming for at least 5---10% increase a session. Instead of my usual 2.5 to 5% This will be to show that I can beat random. Without the need to have some super cushion of say 2000 units. So that even if I have a bad day. I can bounce back. I'm putting myself on the line here. Because I want people to once and for all see. That roulette has never been unbeatable. The thing that's been unconquerable is the weakness of the human mind among the masses who play this game..

justanothergambler

Quote from: Johnlegend on Jun 12, 04:34 PM 2012
No fallacy Sam. I aways quit ahead. It makes perfect sence. If I play for just 3 to 6 units a session. I am far more likely to achieve this. Those 3 to 6 units soon add up.Instead of busting a gut and trying to increase my BR by 30%. As Robeenhuut suggested. You don't expose yourself to randoms fickle trends too long. that's the golden secret.

When I take on Bayes version of a roulette game I will play more aggressively than usual with just a 200 unit BR. Aiming for at least 5---10% increase a session. Instead of my usual 2.5 to 5% This will be to show that I can beat random. Without the need to have some super cushion of say 2000 units. So that even if I have a bad day. I can bounce back. I'm putting myself on the line here. Because I want people to once and for all see. That roulette has never been unbeatable. The thing that's been unconquerable is the weakness of the human mind among the masses who play this game..

I can beat roulette even by playing continuously day and night. I post the system later  O0

flukey luke

everyone is different and what works for one person may not necessarily work for another depending on which way they go about it!

I have a daily 40 unit bankroll. I look to make 40 units profit through a series of mini games which only have a span of about 4-5 spins (excluding the lucky games which go on an extra couple of spins)

All I need to do is win more sessions than I lose. Keep it simple!

4 winning days vs 2 losing days is still 80 units ahead at the end of the week.

I DON'T allow myself to lose any more than 40 units in ANY one day.

I may play a second session at another casino on occasion looking for another 40 units. The worst that can happen is that I lose the 40 units and I have broke even on the day. It may be that I struggle in the second session and hover around +20 and decide to call it quits with that bit extra.

I hit 5 casinos last month all in one day and took something from every one of them. (That has never happened before and most likely will never happen again)

I don't believe in big bankrolls. I have always maintained you better be prepared to lose whatever you go in with. And I certainly 'aint walking into a casino with 500 units to do my nuts in with. That would suggest to me anyhow that you 'aint really got a method and are just hoping to get lucky. Well there is not much difference between 40 and 500 if you have nothing. 40 just means you will lose less.

Johnlegend

FLUKE 40 units I dont recommend neither 500, You talk of winning like it was a surprise to you, If your method is any good losing should be a surprise, Random doesnt know one casino from another, It will do its thing those who can beat it will, Those who cant will become negative and swear its a fools game,

seykid31

I know greed kills..but 2.5 % i was told by a persistent member,better for him to stay home instead of playing to win that amount.

beretta28

-How many sessions for recovering,do I need if I lose all my session BKR?
-Am I conscious that more I play ,more the VIG will kill me?


The answer to the two questions is similar:
-Play only a few spins and have only a few units(high value) as BKR,(bold strategy)




At the end the result will be minus 2,70% of all money I have put on the table,so the conclusion would be not to play at all,but if you MUST play follow the rules here above and hope the "at the end" is as late as possible




Robeenhuut

Quote from: Johnlegend on Jun 12, 04:34 PM 2012
No fallacy Sam. I aways quit ahead. It makes perfect sence. If I play for just 3 to 6 units a session. I am far more likely to achieve this. Those 3 to 6 units soon add up.Instead of busting a gut and trying to increase my BR by 30%. As Robeenhuut suggested. You don't expose yourself to randoms fickle trends too long. that's the golden secret.

When I take on Bayes version of a roulette game I will play more aggressively than usual with just a 200 unit BR. Aiming for at least 5---10% increase a session. Instead of my usual 2.5 to 5% This will be to show that I can beat random. Without the need to have some super cushion of say 2000 units. So that even if I have a bad day. I can bounce back. I'm putting myself on the line here. Because I want people to once and for all see. That roulette has never been unbeatable. The thing that's been unconquerable is the weakness of the human mind among the masses who play this game..

Hello John

When was last time when u played outside chances n flat bet on just few numbers?  I play only with 100u bankroll in a session n 1 win 4 me its on average 30u. Very often i get it in few spins but f i feel like it i go 4 more. My personal best was around  300u in 3 hours. That was a heavy grinding  :D I just use a different approach than yours. I call it hit n stay. Grinding methods never worked 4 me. I just have no patience n my mind is weak 2. But i always excelled at mathematics and statistics. However science only really helps me 2 find out what not 2 do while playing roulette.

Regards
Matt

ego


QuoteYou don't expose yourself to randoms fickle trends too long. that's the golden secret.

That is fiction and not the golden secret.
Facts is that it does not matter how you clustering the distribution or how you play with or against any kind of existing formation/pattern - because when you add them all up they become the same thing as any distribution - there exist no short cut !!!
That is why hit and run methodology is the same thing as any other existing bet selection.
Denial of gamblers fallacy is usually seen in people who has Roulette as last option for a way to wealth, debt covering and a independent lifestyle.  Next step is pretty ugly-
AP - It's not that it can't be done, but rather people don't really have a clue as to the level of fanaticism and outright obsession that it takes to be successful, let alone get to the level where you can take money out of the casinos on a regular basis. Out of 1,000 people that earnestly try, maybe only one will make it.

Johnlegend

Ego that is soon to be disproved, Hit and Run simply doesnt pan out that way, The reason being on occasion you will defy the expected breakdown of wins and losses by going on a freak winning streak, Pattern breaker is the perfect example, Most of the time you get something like this WWWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWWWWL Then once in a while this happens WWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWL That EGO is how I end up with an overall strikerate hovering between 11/1 to 12/1, And with 7/1 repuired to break even, Profit is secured,

Robeenhuut

Quote from: Johnlegend on Jun 18, 09:08 AM 2012
Ego that is soon to be disproved, Hit and Run simply doesn't pan out that way, The reason being on occasion you will defy the expected breakdown of wins and losses by going on a freak winning streak, Pattern breaker is the perfect example, Most of the time you get something like this WWWWLWWWWWWWLWWWWWLWWWWWWWWL Then once in a while this happens WWWWWLWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWL That EGO is how I end up with an overall strikerate hovering between 11/1 to 12/1, And with 7/1 repuired to break even, Profit is secured,

Hola John

Get any method with a low strike rate. U dont need Pattern breaker. Make it 4 example Pattern 5 - u bet against formation of 3 Ec's in 3 wide matrix against 5th  horizontal row. Bet selection in this case is completely irrelevant.  If u play it 4 some time n r lucky u can get strike rate better than average (7/1)  but beware...  correction is coming. My advice is 2 get out b4 yr strike rate drops 2 average expected level n u still have some profit.  It will happen no matter if u play it continuously or hit n run. And believe me  yr profit is far from secured.

Regards
Matt

Johnlegend

I dont agree with this correction theory, and heres why, Pattern Breakers real value isnt that it has given me an average strikrate of 11/1 at present over a decent sample of 3900 games, Its real power comes from the rarity of double losses just 3 now over that sample, This means that even if the strikerate dropped to 5/1 I would make a profit, What most people designing methods fail to do is find a powerpoint that goes beyond just surpassing the paper odds of risk and reward, Yes I have to wait longer with PATTERN BREAKER Than alot of other methods, But be sure that wait is rewarded,

Robeenhuut

Quote from: Johnlegend on Jun 18, 11:11 AM 2012
I don't agree with this correction theory, and heres why, Pattern Breakers real value isnt that it has given me an average strikrate of 11/1 at present over a decent sample of 3900 games, Its real power comes from the rarity of double losses just 3 now over that sample, This means that even if the strikerate dropped to 5/1 I would make a profit, What most people designing methods fail to do is find a powerpoint that goes beyond just surpassing the paper odds of risk and reward, Yes I have to wait longer with PATTERN BREAKER Than a lot of other methods, But be sure that wait is rewarded,

Hola John

So yr recipe 4 success is 2 take any method, play it hit n run n in case of loss double or triple  yr stakes in d next game n u r guaranteed a steady profit?  Its ingenious.... ;D   I wonder why nobody else came up with this idea b4?  And u had only 3 double loses in 3900 games?
Its like getting only 3 loses betting against any pattern of 6 EC's...

Regards
Matt

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