I want to compare 3 different bets on 30 numbers to see which is the most affordable in the long run:
*30 individual numbers (1 unit each)
*5 double streets (1 unit each)
*3 units on low, 2 units on the 3rd dozen
-The first bet selection requires 30 units to make 1 unit profit, but the other 2 only require 5 units to make a 1 unit profit.
-The first bet selection will probably lose slightly less over the long run than the other 2, but the difference is negligible.
-The 2nd bet selection has more flexibility than the 3rd (5 variations vs. 2 variations).
If they lose on the first bet then how much is required to recover the bankroll and still make a 1 unit profit on the 2nd bet? Therefore, which example would be most affordable in the long run? Is there a difference in that respect with regards to the 2nd and 3rd selection?
There would be appear to be no difference between the 2nd and 3rd except the 3rd might fall within more restrictive table limits.
A comparison still needs to be made between the 1st and the 2nd to see which is cheaper in the long run.
I can contribute with the last one...
Profit averages $60 per hour using $1 chips. Losing sessions are very rare -- about two per thousand spins.
Don't risk more than $100 on any spin. Total bankroll is $185.
Two basic bets are made on every spin: Low (1-18) and the 3rd Dozen (25-36)
Bet One - One to Eighteen
The 1 - 18 bet on the outside of the roulette table covers the numbers 1 to 18.
This bet pays even money, meaning that a $1 bet pays $1 if any of the numbers 1 to 18 come up on the next spin.
Bet Two - Third Dozen
The 3rd Dozen or 3rd 12 bet on the outside of the roulette table covers the numbers 25 to 36.
This bet pays two to one, meaning that a $1 bet pays $2 if any of the numbers 25 to 36 come up on the next spin.
Placing the Two Bets Together
You can cover 30 numbers on the roulette layout by placing two bets on every spin: 1-18 and the 3rd Dozen.
Only 7 numbers (8 on American wheels) can make you lose: 0,19,20,21,22,23 and 24.
You must place the two bets in the proper amount of 3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen.
Why?
* If 1 to 18 comes up, you win 3 chips on 1-18 and lose 2 chips on 25 to 36, for a profit of 1 chip.
* If 25 to 36 comes up, you win 4 chips on that bet and lose 3 chips on 1-18 for a profit of 1 chip.
Losing Frequencies
How many times in a row can the two bets lose?
The two bets together don't lose very often and not too many times in a row.
That's because on every spin you have 30 chances of winning versus only 8 chances of losing.
The odds of winning are tremendously in your favour.
After thousands of test spins using recorded casino spins, the most times in a row the two bets lost were four times.
In an average 1000 (live) spins, there should be:
• 210 single losses
• 40 two-in-a-row losses
• 9 three-in-a-row losses
• 2 four-in-a-row losses
• 0 five-in-a-row or more losses
These numbers are based on mathematical probability. During testing, the numbers varied from each group of 1000 spins, but not by much.
We have never seen a five-in-a-row loss in our testing. This doesn't mean five in a row or more are not possible. Anything is possible, but the odds against seeing five in a row losses or more are astronomical!
On average, you can expect a two-in-a-row or more loss once every 40 spins.
With such a low "losses in a row" rate, you can formulate simple progressions to take advantage of these great odds.
Winning Progressions
If any one of the 7 or 8 losing numbers come up, 0,19,20,21,22,23 or 24, you lose both bets for a total loss of 5 chips.
If you bet 5 chips on every spin, you will lose money in the long run. However, if you increase your two bets after a loss, you will win more money in the long term than you lose in the short term.
Our "basic bet" is 3/2 (3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen).
Continue to bet 3/2 until you have a loss -- when 0,19,20,21,22,23 or 24 comes up.
One Loss
After your first losing bet increase your bet to 9/6.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 9/6.
If that bet wins, you have made a 1 chip profit.
You only need to win the next two spins in a row to show a profit.
Example
The first spin is 21. You lose 5 chips.
Your next bet is 9 chips on 1-18 and 6 chips on the 3rd Dozen.
The next spin is 4. You win 9 chips on 1-18 and lose 6 chips on the 3rd Dozen for a profit of 3 chips. When you subtract the 5 chips you lost on the first spin, you're still down 2 chips.
Your next bet is again 9 and 6 chips.
The next spin is 7. You're profit for this spin is again 3 chips. Add that to your minus 2 chips and you're ahead 1 chip.
You now go back to your basic bet of 3/2 chips.
Two Losses in a Row
Our "basic bet" is 3/2 (3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen).
After first losing bet your next bet is 9/6.
If that bet loses, your next bet is 33/22.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 33/22.
If that bet wins, you have made a 1 chip profit.
Your next bet is again 3/2
Three Losses in a Row
Our "basic bet" is 3/2 (3 chips on 1-18 and 2 chips on the 3rd Dozen).
After first losing bet your next bet is 9/6.
If that bet loses, your next bet is 33/22.
If that bet loses, your next bet is 74/36.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 74/36.
If that bet wins, your next bet is also 74/36.
Your next bet is again 3/2.If either of the last two bets lose, take the $185 loss and play again later.
Converting Four-in-a-row Losses to Winners
This strategy eliminates most four-in-a-row losses.
Anytime one of the eight losing number shows up, switch to the opposite two bets for the next bet:
On the next bet after a loss, place 9 chips on 19-36 and 6 chips on the 1st Dozen.
Then, switch back to your normal bets.
Example
Consider this sequence of spins:
19
21
19
23
19
21 (betting on 19-36 and the 1st Dozen turns this into a win!)
19 (switching back to 1-18/3rd Dozen turns this into one loss)
23 (betting on 19-36 and the 1st Dozen turns this into a win!)
Profit Expectation
In an average 1000 spins you should win $630. ($1000 minus 2 losses of $185 each).
As stated earlier, you should only experience 2 four-in-a-row losses per thousand spins.
The above progression is the one we use when we play this system.
You can experiment with your own progressions if you'd like.
I test this bet selection ...
This is how it looks with todays random org results.
5
2
6
1
4 (line 3 is sleeping)
5 W
2 W
1 W
1 W
6 W
6 W
6 W
1 W
6 W
5 W
2 W
6 W
4 W
5 W
6 W
3 L
2
1
5
3
6 (line 4 is sleeping)
5 W
6 W
1 W
6 W
3 W
1 W
3 W
6 W
4 L
6
2
4
1
5 (line 3 is sleeping)
6 W
1 W
3 L
6
5
3
5
3
5
5
3
1
3
3
2 (line 4 is sleeping)
4 L
2
1
5
2
6
4 (line 3 is sleeping)
2 W
4 W
2 W
1 W
5 W
2 W
4 W
3 L
1
6
5
5
5
3
2 (line 4 is sleeping)
1 W
5 W
5 W
6 W
5 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
6 W
6 W
4 L
2
3
1
1
6
3
6
1
5 (line 4 is sleeping)
5 W
3 W
5 W
3 W
6 W
6 W
6 W
1 W
1 W
1 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 W
6 W
1 W
2 W
5 W
4 L
If it is true that it does not exceed 5 losses in a row then is that not the grail?
Thanks ego! So you agree it's a good bet selection and pretty hard to lose with a 5-step progression? My testing would have reached a similar conclusion no doubt. The next step might be to break up that 5-step progression into several separate progressions that take longer to chase the losses, but require a cheaper bankroll overall until one can afford the required bankroll. So that might mean adjusting the Star System for this bet. Another project might be to adjust Reverse Labby or any other system for the same bet. So that's where I think my research is heading, but right now, I still don't know if the bet in question is cheaper than 30 individual numbers after a 5 step progression.
Actually, ego seems to have already factored in the staggering of bets in his 4-step progression allowing for 2 losses of 185 every 1000 profit. I think ego deserves a round of applause! He seems to have sussed everything out already based on where my logic was heading.
ego, did you ever publish this system before? And what name did you give it?
Does the switching of bets definitely remove an extra loss in testing? So I think this could be the holy grail then!
For cheaper but highly effective progression, try Foolproof Variation Progression.
Relevant link is in the forum.
Have you got a direct link please? I can't seem to find anything for "Foolproof Variation Progression"
Here it is; It usually applies to even chance bets, but there is no reason
as to why it cannot be modified to be adapted to this particular bet
selection.
link:s://:.dropbox.com/s/zmwixa1giyo9rsm/Stetson%20Bailey.pdf (link:s://:.dropbox.com/s/zmwixa1giyo9rsm/Stetson%20Bailey.pdf)
Thanks Chris,
I'll check that out!
In the meantime, however, from my general roulette testing I found that a Double Street can appear 8 times in a row max in 1 million spins, so that would spell 8 potential losses in a row for ego's system to overcome - not 4! But then since he has a stop loss after 3 based on his staggered progression then that deserves to be tested in its own right.
You all have to do your own testing ... here is the RX code for the system ...
All system fail when you test them into the long run ...
-
system "World's Best and Safest Roulette system Ver 2"
{
*************************************
* System by Zac2170 *
* on the VIP Lounge *
*************************************
Rx-ed by Sp1N-D1zZy
-------------------------------------
00-c0mpatible
-------------------------------------
Bet on Low and 3rd Dozen simultaneously with the following progression:
3/2, 9/6, 33/22, 74/36, 240/160, 600/400
On a loss, move up one in progression AND switch betting layout to
opposite of current layout. (If Low and 3rd Dozen, change to High and 1st Dozen.)
On a win, switch layouts back to original. If at 3/2, start again from scratch.
If at 9/6, wait for 2 wins in a row before starting again from scratch.
If at 33/22, again wait for 2 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 74/36, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 240/160, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
If at 600/400, wait for 3 wins in a row before starting from scratch.
-------------------------------------
}
method "main"
begin
while starting new session
begin
call "Init"
end
if net > 0
begin
copy list [low] record"Even"layout
copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
if record"Even"data index = 2 or record"Even"data index = 3
begin
add 1 record"Loss Progression"data
if record"Loss Progression"data = 2
begin
put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
put 1 record"Even"data index
put 1 record"Dozen"data index
end
end
if record"Even"data index = 4 or record"Even"data index = 5
or record"Even"data index = 6
begin
add 1 record"Loss Progression"data
if record"Loss Progression"data = 3
begin
put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
put 1 record"Even"data index
put 1 record"Dozen"data index
end
end
end
if net < 0
begin
put 0 record"Loss Progression"data
add 1 record"Even"data index
add 1 record"Dozen"data index
call "Switch Layouts"
if record"Even"data index > record"Even"data count
begin
put 1 record"Even"data index
put 1 record"Dozen"data index
copy list [low] record"Even"layout
copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
end
end
call "Place Bets"
end
method "Place Bets"
begin
put 100% record"Even"data record"Even"layout
put 100% record"Dozen"data record"Dozen"layout
end
method "Switch Layouts"
begin
if list [low] pattern match record"Even"layout
begin
copy list [high] record"Even"layout
copy list [1st Dozen] record"Dozen"layout
end
else
begin
copy list [low] record"Even"layout
copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
end
end
method "Init"
begin
copy list [low] record"Even"layout
copy list [3rd dozen] record"Dozen"layout
group
begin
display "World's Best and Safest Roulette System"
display "------------------------------------------------------------------------------"
input dropdown "Progression
1:=4 Step
2:=5 Step
3:=6 Step" record"Progression Step"data
end
if record"Progression Step"data = 1
begin
set list [3,9,33,74] record"Even"data
set list [2,6,22,36] record"Dozen"data
put 1 record"Even"data index
put 1 record"Dozen"data index
end
if record"Progression Step"data = 2
begin
set list [3,9,33,74,240] record"Even"data
set list [2,6,22,36,160] record"Dozen"data
put 1 record"Even"data index
put 1 record"Dozen"data index
end
if record"Progression Step"data = 3
begin
set list [3,9,33,74,240,600] record"Even"data
set list [2,6,22,36,160,400] record"Dozen"data
put 1 record"Even"data index
put 1 record"Dozen"data index
end
end
-
If you don't have Roulette Extreme, then you should get a copy as that would save you alot of money.
Google UXSoftware and roulette.
@ Ego
Thanks for sharing this great system. I have a couple of question
to ensure I'm testing it properly:
Assuming you have a 1st loss because no. 19 came.
For your second bet you switch the bets around i.e you bet 9 units on
19-36 and 6 units on first dozen.
Assume you loose this second bet because no. 13 came. Will you switch around
again for your third bet....? i.e 33 units on no 1-18 and 22 units on 3rd
dozen....?
Thanks for your assistance.
Chris
All systems fail but we keep trying is there something wrong with all of us?
Yes I agree, but the main thing is that we win more than we loose;
the rest is unimportant.
I've saved that system into Roulette Xtreme. Anyone know how to quickly test it over 1,000 spins and run a simple stat/graph or something? So far I activated it and set it to the current document, but then it keeps coming up with the debug or code window every time I click spin. Not sure how I am supposed to use the software?
Quote from: Chris555p on Oct 28, 10:50 AM 2014
Yes I agree, but the main thing is that we win more than we loose;
the rest is unimportant.
Not as easy as you think,win more then lose :(
I managed to get it working by clicking new session, but it doesn't seem to be doing very well for some reason.
@ Warrior
I think there are some hidden pearls in the forum; Since Ego posted his
system I have been testing it extensively on live Wheel and all I can
is that the results are excellent. Thanks Ego for sharing this great system.
Ideally we want to be betting 35/37 numbers, but that would be too difficult unless the table is part digital with a "repeat last bet" function.
This bet is a compromise:
6 units on low
4 units on dozen three
1 unit on street 22,23,24
That covers the same as 11 streets, but is easier to place.
That still leaves 4 numbers; what similar bet can leave only 2 numbers besides individual numbers?
@ Falkor
What's wrong with the way that Ego indicates to play ....?
Did u try it.....? If yes what do u think is the hit rate
in percentage terms....?
I think its on VLS on downloads....rx systems
You may have to download a zip comprising of several by alphabet.
If its there I have tested it. If I forgot I tested it then it tanked in the longrun. All 200 or so tank eventually.
Please dont mistake my post as negative. Its just true.
tried this system (the code) it fails badly even with a 6 step progression....
The problem is when you lose you lose 5 units. Then you'd have to win 5 times after that to break even.
Since the win rate is so high maybe you can bet 3 and 2 for 5 spins if your up restart if you are down then 6 and 4 for 5 spins. Test it that way
I have been testing the system on live Wheel for
several hours and I'm up by more than 250 units.
I never had to go beyond step 2 of the progression.
The best is to test it manually on live Wheel with a
real dealer spinning the ball. This way there is no room
for error or for misinterpretation.
There is one thing that i don't like with this code, it bet every trail.
Let say you pick line 3 and only play line 3, then you get a different game.
Each time you see line 3 hitting once and you place your bets against line 3 hitting 7 times in a row...
Then the statistics in the system is right.
But if you mix them with two lines you get more variance.
If i would play this system i would wait for one cycle where line 3 or 4 fall into sleep.
Then play once.
My opinion.
Live-spins from dublinbet.........6 step progression
This is the best bet selection I can find for covering 35/37 numbers:
18 Low
12 Dozen Three
4 Quad 19,20,22,23
1 Number 24
It's not as convenient as the others though. I will test this system with numbers and different progressions and see what results I come up with. The basic concept is that covering most of the board is more affordable, but the progression needs to effectively recover from:
All but 6 numbers: 8 losses
All but 3 numbers: 6 losses
All but 2 numbers: 5 losses
ego's system is based on this concept, but the progression seems to be reason why it's showing a losing streak in the above graphs; the progression is staggered so it relies on stability following a losing streak, but most times the chaos continues with a storm of mini losing streaks.
My spread sheet seems to have made some incorrect calculations regarding progressions on numbers. Firstly, traditional progressions do not have enough steps to recover the bankroll for the amount of losses we are talking about. Secondly, you are forced to take extra profit besides 1 unit, so you have more flexibility using other sections to cover the same amount of numbers for just 1 unit. Finally, I am still testing Gambler's Fallacy to see if those losses can be reduced by betting against numbers that have appeared most recently (switching the bet might also have the same effect); for example, I was only getting a maximum of 9 losses in a row betting 24 numbers @ 100K spins, but according to my predictions under normal circumstances those losses should be way higher.
35/37 profit 1
1 1
2 36
3 1296
34/37 profit 2
1 1
2 18
3 324
33/37 profit 3
1 1
2 12
3 144
4 1728
32/37 profit 4
1 1
2 9
3 81
4 729
31/37 profit 5
30/37 profit 6
1 1
2 6
3 36
4 216
5 1296
29/37 profit 7
28/37 profit 8
27/37 profit 9
1 1
2 4
3 16
4 64
5 256
6 1024
26/37 profit 10
25/37 profit 11
24/37 profit 12
1 1
2 3
3 9
4 27
5 81
6 243
7 729
30/37 profit 6
1 1
2 6
3 36
4 216
5 1296
30/37 profit 1 (using Low and 3rd Dozen)
1 3 2
2 18 12
3 108 72
4 648 432
30/37 profit 1 (using Double Streets)
1 1 1 1 1
6 6 6 6 6
36 36 36 36 36
216 216 216 216 216
1296 1296 1296 1296 1296
Looks worse than I thought!
Correct me if I am wrong, but this progression does not seem right:
3/2, 9/6, 33/22, 74/36, 240/160, 600/400
Look at step 4, it loses 2 chips each time the third dozen hits, you only win if the Low hits or the high hits depending on which way you have it around, it seems out of proportion. All of the other numbers are 3/2.
I used to play 1st half and last dozen a while back. The key trick is wait for 2 consecutive virtual losses in a row then start. Wait for 19 thru 24 to hit twice in a row and vice versa
I like a light progression where a win will get you closer to a break even point rather then a total recover, this works because with many more wins then losses you will recover. Forget the progression that brings u positive after a loss. The progression gets too drastic. Just increase units slightly and you'll come back
Quote from: warrior on Oct 28, 10:38 AM 2014
All systems fail but we keep trying is there something wrong with all of us?
What I see at the tables is many people "snatching defeat from the jaws of victory"
People get up...
often ...
regardless of whether they are scattering chips in many cases or playing a method...but they just don't know when to quit...and they end up losing. Just an ongoing observation.
Roulette key happens to me every time. Greed takes over and nothing is good enough. I'd aim for 100 and when I hit 100 I'd say 100 more and try for 200. I'd always lose
I had a system on American roulette I'd bet the 5 numbers on either side of the zeros plus the zeros. A 22 number bet.
I won 100 a day for a week straight and on the 5th day I hit a bad string and instead of stopping at 100 and walking away I tried to recover and lost
If I stuck to my 100 goal of be up
ego
your progression would cause you to be a winner everytime
but the problem is the spread
say you play online $1 base bets, for instance on celtic casino $1 minimum on 1st dozen only lets you increase to $25 limit
at my local casino you can bet $5 on 1st dozen but the max is $200 therefore u can never do the 74/36 bet
great progression but i dont believe any table have this spread of minimums and maximums
p.s. i just ran 10 simulations on test my strategy of 1,000 spins each and 1 of 5,000 spins and he is RIGHT
the MAX consecutive loses was 4 at a time
we can make this work!
edit: if we can find a casino that allows such a minimum and maximum spread
Quote from: falkor on Oct 28, 01:13 PM 2014
This is the best bet selection I can find for covering 35/37 numbers:
18 Low
12 Dozen Three
4 Quad 19,20,22,23
1 Number 24
It's not as convenient as the others though. I will test this system with numbers and different progressions and see what results I come up with. The basic concept is that covering most of the board is more affordable, but the progression needs to effectively recover from:
All but 6 numbers: 8 losses
All but 3 numbers: 6 losses
All but 2 numbers: 5 losses
ego's system is based on this concept, but the progression seems to be reason why it's showing a losing streak in the above graphs; the progression is staggered so it relies on stability following a losing streak, but most times the chaos continues with a storm of mini losing streaks.
And your point to betting all those numbers is what.
It's all part of a new system I've got in mind:
Wait for 6 numbers to come in (1) then wait for another 8 spins (2). If the 8 spins contain only those 6 previous numbers then flat bet one unit on the opposite (3).
Wait for 3 numbers to come in (1) then wait for another 6 spins (2). If the 6 spins contain only those 3 previous numbers then flat bet one unit on the opposite (3).
Wait for 2 numbers to come in (1) then wait for another 5 spins (2). If the 5 spins contain only those 2 previous numbers then flat bet one unit on the opposite (3).
In step (3) you could also wait for 1 spin less then use a 2-step progression.
Above is only 3 triggers, but my system will be looking for at least 500!
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Oct 28, 05:31 PM 2014
edit: if we can find a casino that allows such a minimum and maximum spread
& that's the reason casino has table limits to suit themselves !!!!!
O0
Yeap. No doubt betting high and first dozen wont miss more than 4 times in a row
But there is no progression we could use without hitting the limits
Perhaps theres another way since the wins outweigh the losses
if you wait for 2 virtual losses then begin it is infalliable
why do i say that? ego is right. ive tested countless spins and if choosing 1-18 and 3rd dozen or 19-36 and 1st dozen the losses will not exceed 4. as ego stated no such thing as 5 misses and if it was to happen it would be a once in a lifetime event
wait for 2 virtual losses (i tested this and it doesnt take too long, about 40 times in 1,000 spins it happens) then begin
with $5 units you would not hit maximum bets
you can alternate between 1-18/3rd dozen and 19-36/1st dozen depending what has missed 2 times in a row
wait for 2 misses then begin with following bets:
spin 3- 15/10 (3 chips/2 chips)
spin 4- 45/30 (9 chips/6 chips)
spin 5- 165/110 (33 chips/22 chips)
you all better listen up you have a winning system in front of your eyes
a few days ago i said maybe the key to betting roulette is a SIMPLE strategy
real live wheel
if playing 1-18 and 3rd dozen, we had 4 misses in a row of 19-24
:(
I hoped you at least waited for 2 VL's!!
Also, maybe a daft questions, what's the difference in waiting for any DS to show, once, twice, whatever, then bet the other five, it's still 5 units, in fact on the tables I play, due to min bets, this bet would only cost me 5 units, whereas the 3 on 1-18/19/-38 and 2 on the relevant dozen would cost me 25 units...
Jim
"Yeap. No doubt betting high and first dozen wont miss more than 4 times in a row"
live spin 5800 spin
is there a more gentler progression then
3/2
9/6
33/22