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A Test for Randomness

Started by Bayes, May 24, 04:55 AM 2016

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Bayes

New article: A Test for Randomness.

Creative system designers might get some new ideas from this.  :)
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

Drazen

Thanks Bayes

I signed second time as you instructed, but again no notification mail. Unless it comes with a bit of delay?

Cheers

Bayes

Hi Drazen,

Hopefully you'll get the notification tomorrow. The RSS file gets checked at 4 am GMT daily and then the emails are sent.
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

Turner

I keep thinking of something.

A random number cant be tested on its own. It can only be tested in a sequence of other random numbers

......a sequence of other random numbers that have absolutely no relation to each other

And....

past random numbers have no effect on future numbers, but future numbers arnt random unless they have them.




Priyanka

Quote from: Turner on May 24, 07:11 AM 2016but future numbers arnt random unless they have them
I don't intend to start a debate. But that goes to my theory and the way I see the game Future and present always impacts the past
Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

Turner

BTW...Bayes

Ive always wanted a good description of Z score....so thanks

Bayes

I think there's a lot of confusion in discussions because there is no agreed definition of what "random" means. For me it's quite simple, it just means lack of information.

link:://wmbriggs.com/post/2227/
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

Turner

Quote from: Bayes on May 24, 07:57 AM 2016For me it's quite simple, it just means lack of information.
But that lack of information cant be proven until you use past spins

Its probably a silly argument....but I am just saying.

Bayes

Quote from: Turner on May 24, 08:01 AM 2016
But that lack of information cant be proven until you use past spins

But how do you "prove" lack of information? I think I know what you're saying, but you're assuming that looking at past spins is a no no because they're independent. But that's just an assumption - how do you know it? - because they're "random" numbers!

It's a circular argument.
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

PeaBea65

Quote from: Priyanka on May 24, 07:41 AM 2016
I don't intend to start a debate. But that goes to my theory and the way I see the game Future and present always impacts the past

Without a doubt.  :thumbsup:
All systems lose in the end, you can't polish a turd.

Turner

Quote from: Bayes on May 24, 08:12 AM 2016It's a circular argument.
Of course

But is there such a thing as a random number or is it a number produced randomly?

I mean, one of these numbers is off a roulette wheel and one I just wrote down

6 and 32

Which is the random number. Are they both random because with my number, I only chose 1?

Is neither random because it can only pass a test in amongst other random numbers.

Im trying not to be facetious

Priyanka

Quote from: Turner on May 24, 09:55 AM 2016Im trying not to be facetious
Sometimes the only way one can make sense is by being facetious. Random is one such subject ;)
Disclaimer : Roulette systems are subject to laws of probability. If you are not sure about the effects of it, please refer to link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth. Don't get robbed by scammers.

Bayes

Quote from: Turner on May 24, 09:55 AM 2016
But is there such a thing as a random number or is it a number produced randomly?

I would say it has to be produced by something. A random number is generated by some kind of mechanism or process which produces numbers which can't be predicted with any reliability because not enough is known about the generating process, or it is too complex for us to comprehend. E.g. radioactive decay. So it comes back to lack of information.

Quote
I mean, one of these numbers is off a roulette wheel and one I just wrote down

6 and 32

Which is the random number. Are they both random because with my number, I only chose 1?

They're both random for me, but only one is random for you.
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

Toby

Hi bayes,
Is your calculation box(at your site article) for even money bets?

We have got m(hits), n(fails), ans r(data ammount) to calculate the zcore

Bayes

Hi Toby,

No, I think you've misunderstood the purpose of this z-score. Any z-score just expresses the deviation from the average or expectation in terms of the number of standard deviations from it. What you need is the z-score for wins and losses, not the number of runs. And no, it's not just for even money bets although the final sequence is two-valued. There's no calculator for that ATM but I'll be adding one to the stats page soon, for those who don't like doing maths (99% of us  ;D).
"The trouble isn't what we don't know, it's what we think we know that just ain't so!" - Mark Twain

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