I wasn't going to post again but thought I'd drop off this nugget. Original thanks goes to Winkel 's GUT which inspired Notto's KTF which this is using modified form of since repeaters happen 15x in spins 11-40 Thanks also to Ayk's 37 spin rolling tracker. Not many charts like this that I have seen.
It is a repeater method. It uses progression. It uses many numbers per bet. It's profitable! It doesn't require a roulette computer, it doesn't require a VB training, it doesn't require a wobbly wheel to track.
It has everything going against it, repeaters, progression, many numbers played so I guess all you AP and math guys please don't look, this isn't for you.
It's profitable, that's all I have to say. Let's see an AP chart like this.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_646612.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/t28El)
I will post method soon.
I remember this one I think, your Ancient Drinking Vessel? Always liked it and thought it had potential, haven't gotten to it yet on the list of things to pursue.
Cheers Nimo
Good to see you posting again Nimo. You bring invaluable insight to the board. I look forward to your future posts with great interest. Keep up the great work.
Quote from: Nimo on Aug 12, 01:13 PM 2018
I wasn't going to post again but thought I'd drop off this nugget. Original thanks goes to Winkel 's GUT which inspired Notto's KTF which this is using modified form of since repeaters happen 15x in spins 11-40 Thanks also to Ayk's 37 spin rolling tracker. Not many charts like this that I have seen.
It is a repeater method. It uses progression. It uses many numbers per bet. It's profitable! It doesn't require a roulette computer, it doesn't require a VB training, it doesn't require a wobbly wheel to track.
It has everything going against it, repeaters, progression, many numbers played so I guess all you AP and math guys please don't look, this isn't for you.
It's profitable, that's all I have to say. Let's see an AP chart like this.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_646612.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/t28El)
I will post method soon.
Nice graph. I love repeaters so will be interesting to see your take on it.
BA
Here is another chart that I did with spins from my casino, same results.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/12/temp_566976.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttGrQ)
I asked Ayk to modify his tracker to go to a rolling 37 spin as once you get up to the 37 number point you are usually at around the 24 unique hit mark, it varies down to 18 and up to 28 but the average is still around 24. So I thought why can't I use those numbers on a rolling basis and always have the freshest 37 numbers with the most recent unique hits.
It is a repeater method as in you spin 37 times without betting filling up the tracker. At spin 38 bet all the numbers that hit, so you are betting on a repeat happening. Knowing that Notto has done countless of charts with spins between 11-40 you get 15 repeats happen, at around spin 37 you are around 11-13 repeats so there should be around a few left to hit within next few spins. Betting all the numbers that hit, (usually 22-26), if it hits, add the number to the tracker and bet all those numbers that hit, if it doesn't hit then add the number to the tracker, bet all those numbers, but with a progression. I use a rudimentary spreadsheet that I made for progressions, but you can do it manually or download one in the software section. Most progressions aren't longer than 4 steps as you can see in the charts.
+1000 units in roughly 150 spins, with 37 units not even bet, that's roughly $8-9 per played spin profit.
I could sell this but I won't. If you do play it and profit, just donate money to a children's charity of your choice.
Does this have anything to do with betting numbers that repeat in a 37 spin cycle?
Quote from: Nimo on Aug 12, 04:21 PM 2018
It is a repeater method as in you spin 37 times without betting filling up the tracker. At spin 38 bet all the numbers that hit, so you are betting on a repeat happening. Knowing that Notto has done countless of charts with spins between 11-40 you get 15 repeats happen, at around spin 37 you are around 11-13 repeats so there should be around a few left to hit within next few spins. Betting all the numbers that hit, (usually 22-26), if it hits, add the number to the tracker and bet all those numbers that hit, if it doesn't hit then add the number to the tracker, bet all those numbers, but with a progression. I use a rudimentary spreadsheet that I made for progressions, but you can do it manually or download one in the software section. Most progressions aren't longer than 4 steps as you can see in the charts.
Thanks Nimo, after drilling down into your first chart and thinking a bit I had figured this is what you were doing, have been running it this exact way the past two hours...has won every time.
Longest loss progression I've had in multiple 150 spin sessions so far: 4. And the sessions don't need to be limited, I just chose that as a cutoff/reset for control reasons. It can go and go and go and go, as long as you want thanks to Ayk's tracker, very easy.
The progression is simple to put into action as you mentioned, just choose one that suits your risk profile and go. Not sure how I'd keep up at B&M, but online play would be relatively easy.
Appreciate it, and thanks again to Ayk.
I had tested this just too few times this winter, play nrs appearing in the last 37 spins, like you did.
Played it flat and it was conclusive until like 500u up then down to zero.
Worth investigating, indeed. Alembert?
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 12, 05:12 PM 2018
I had tested this just too few times this winter, play nrs appearing in the last 37 spins, like you did.
Played it flat and it was conclusive until like 500u up then down to zero.
Worth investigating, indeed. Alembert?
Yeah Ben after a few sessions I did the flat bet math and realized it wasn't worth it. The progression risk isn't a deal-breaker at all, you can cap it if you're uncomfortable, like doubling every time until you hit the fifth double up then resetting to the first level bet and continuing on.
The hitrate is high enough, roughly 70% based on the spins I've done (RX RNG, 00 wheel), that recovery after a worst-case level reset isn't the end of the world, no need to do high level acrobatics to try and get back where you were, or put up with the slower pace of the D'Alembert.
If you have the bankroll, and your casino limits are high enough a certain 1-5-25-100 Turbo progression is one hell of a ride.
Nimo, Thanks for posting this great system. I have been testing it with live dealer, real casino from about 5 hrs.
In max 4 try there is always a win.
For players who have tested or playing this system in how many try generally do u have a win....?Thanks
Chris
Thanks Nimo
Very nice
I guess on American wheels I’d wait 38 spins.
Since this can often be around a 24 number bet we all know a progression on 24 numbers is steep and dangerous
What are you doing for progression/money management
Thanks.
Quote from: Chris555p on Aug 14, 11:58 AM 2018
Nimo, Thanks for posting this great system. I have been testing it with live dealer, real casino from about 5 hrs.
In max 4 try there is always a win.
For players who have tested or playing this system in how many try generally do u have a win....?Thanks
Chris
Most I've hit is four steps, but you never know.
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 14, 12:53 PM 2018
Since this can often be around a 24 number bet we all know a progression on 24 numbers is steep and dangerous
What are you doing for progression/money management
Thanks.
I use a spreadsheet that I enter the amount of numbers and the dollar amount and it tells me how much I need to bet for a profit. I adjust it so that in each win I make a minimum of 10 units.
I have reached four steps in close to 12000 spins never more, but you never know.
Nimo
That's extremely good results. Well done
Got up to 11 misses with nrs from random.org in 100k spins.
So I thought I'd dissecate the results with my goddess Excel She.
This was interesting.
I sorted how many numbers were in the last 37 spins and how many spins it took to get a hit.
Hits took from 1 to 11 spins. There were 63783 hits in 99963 (100k-37) spins. Lower than I thought if we consider an average of 24 nrs in 37 spins. Ok.
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_276914.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/ttzd5)
Distribution of spins to hit according to how many nrs in last 37 spins goes like this:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_526454.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tT5gr)
This is a lot of nrs and real high variation. So I evened out to express those nrs in percentage of occurences.
So when there were x nrs in last 37 spins, what percentage hit on first spin, second...
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_805552.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tTsTx)
I know this is lots of gaphs, but I'm going somewhere with this. ???
So I compared these stats with what theory suggests. In theory, example, when betting on 24 nrs, a hit on first spin comes 24/37 times, (1-24/37)*24/37 times on 2nd spin, so on.
There was a HUGE difference between theory and stats. Next graph shows the difference on first hit:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_449287.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tTTz9)
Let's see the overall difference in all spins:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/14/temp_133335.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tTt7B)
So, bluntly speaking, there was an advantage betting for a repeater if there is less than 24 nrs in the last 37 spins, an advantage betting for unhits if there is more than 24 nrs in 37 spins.
Is this the Trot going on?
A second set of 100k spins (from random.org) showed same results.
Same also with Excel random function
Ok.... O0
If anyone wants to double check, I'll gladly share the Excel file.
QuoteSo, bluntly speaking, there was an advantage betting for a repeater if there is less than 24 nrs in the last 37 spins, an advantage betting for unhits if there is more than 24 nrs in 37 spins.
So what! ::) If the chi square is high, then the numbers that are hitting the most and even sometimes hit frequency distribution betting will show as a winner. It happens, it's a normal random fluctuation that happens even in random numbers.
The problem is that you can't side step probability to exploit it, and know when the chi square is going to be high enough to work. Hind sight is 20/20.
In short, you're trying to side step probability, but you can't in the random game. However the live and biased wheel is something entirely different.
Thanks Caleb for your insight. However I wrote in the original post a warning that shows this isn't for everyone so play at your own risk.
Here it is again.
It has everything going against it, repeaters, progression, many numbers played so I guess all you AP and math guys please don't look, this isn't for you.
It has everything going against it, the warning is there in black and white. You are AP guy, so this isn't for you. I don't profess to be a roulette guru, I just share what works for me. If I'm ever beside you in a B&M I'll gladly sit back and watch a master at work then buy you a dinner for the honour and privilege.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 14, 10:27 PM 2018
A second set of 100k spins (from random.org) showed same results.
Same also with Excel random function
Ok.... O0
If anyone wants to double check, I'll gladly share the Excel file.
I'm not sure if everyone is playing progression correctly or if you factored it in this way in your calculations but if there is a loss on first bet, I don't necessarily add the number that just came up, I play the last unique hit numbers on the tracker, it could be 24 numbers first bet, then I add the number to the tracker and the first spun number drops off so my second bet is also 24 numbers, but with a progression added. This keeps the numbers that you have to bet on in a more reasonably level.
Bigbroben
I do not know if I have interpreted the last table well.
If we assume that we have less than 24 numbers in the 37 spin cycle.
Playing only 1 spin on the numbers that had a hit, we have an edge?
I you play on a rolling bases. Like nimo does.
So if you are below the 24 mark. Bet for a repeat for all the numbers you have.
Got 20 numbers out of 37? Bet those 20.
Got 21 numbers out of 37? Bet those 21.
On a rolling base your numbers will change. And you will always bet the first spin. So you will have an edge if the stats are correct.
Got more than 24 number? Bet the 13 that are unhit.
Got 25 numbers out of 37? Bet those 12 unhit.
Got 26 numbers out of 37? Bet those 11 unhit.
That should give an edge.
Use a calculator to see how much you need to bet in order to hit a new high. Always aim for a new high every bet. That is what nimo does as far as i can understand.
Raymanz
I thought exactly the same, even playing only numbers below 24 on rolling bases, we will always play only once after driving below this limit 24 hit
Now we only need a tracker, showing numbers and distribution of hit and unhits always last 37 numbers.
And we can play
Raymanz if you play this way it can be very dangerous. It's not uncommon to see unhit/hit ratio hower at 12/24 .worst case is like your always betting on wrong side for every 24 to 25 and back switch.
Quote from: ayk on Aug 15, 09:33 AM 2018
Raymanz if you play this way it can be very dangerous. It's not uncommon to see unhit/hit ratio hower at 12/24 .worst case is like your always betting on wrong side for every 24 to 25 and back switch.
It's just a suggestion based on the data. It could work, but it should be tested first.
Maybe don't bet on 23,24,25 hit. So you have a save margin. Anything under or above is a bet for a repeater of unhit. Maybe it could even work flat bet. Who knows.
If you have plenty of time maybe wait for 19 hits in your cycle and bet the remaining 18 unhit? Facing EC conditions against the 24/12 ratio. I think I did that one year ago but not followed the idea in detail.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 14, 10:24 PM 2018
Is this the Trot going on?
Winkel and Notto have been saying this for years ... depending on your own interpretation of the information, there is much that can be used for creating your own strategy if you don’t like theirs.
If the data is good it should work on rolling bases, always last 37 numbers as an independent cycle
And we only play the options for the first spin when the ratio goes below 24 hits in the cycle.
We do not wait if the edge is, playing 23 hits already we have an advantage.
I guess there is no need to play these options above 24 hits because in the first spin there is no edge until the second spin and the next .
The only option that enters the game is flatbet, if there is no edge, then nothing can save it
Quote from: RayManZ on Aug 15, 09:15 AM 2018
I you play on a rolling bases. Like nimo does.
So if you are below the 24 mark. Bet for a repeat for all the numbers you have.
Got 20 numbers out of 37? Bet those 20.
Got 21 numbers out of 37? Bet those 21.
On a rolling base your numbers will change. And you will always bet the first spin. So you will have an edge if the stats are correct.
Got more than 24 number? Bet the 13 that are unhit.
Got 25 numbers out of 37? Bet those 12 unhit.
Got 26 numbers out of 37? Bet those 11 unhit.
That should give an edge.
Use a calculator to see how much you need to bet in order to hit a new high. Always aim for a new high every bet. That is what nimo does as far as i can understand.
It´s too good to be true (from an old song)
What you have to know: If you have 24 (or 12) numbers to bet your hit rate will be 24/37 (12/37) you don´t change the odds.
What you can do is: make a statistic of the bets you have watched.
And then:
If the hit rate should be 24/37 and your stats show 20/37 then bet flat til you are in profit. Then stop and wait for next possible turning point.
If the hit rate should be 12/37 and your statistic show 15/37 then bet opposite and also flat bet until you are in profit. Then stop and wait for next possible turning point.
Or: If you don´t wanna bet too many numbers: If your stats say don´t bet 24 numbers then bet the opposite 12
If you you don´t mind betting many numbers: If your stats say don´t bet 12 numbers, then bet the opposite 24 numbers.
These examples can be transferred to any other count (23 vs 13; 20 vs 17; and so on)
OR: Listen to your gut or precognition abilities or the prayer you sent to universe.
Let me double check this. I just want to make sure before I scream Eureka...
I like this a lot, just out of curiosity I flipped it to play the opposite yesterday (nonhits), to see if the numbers would come in at expectation, and they did...though it seems you get more long-term sleepers that way, just dead numbers for 200+ spins, than you do dead repeats.
It was still net positive though after 10 full session tests by a wide margin. Very cool.
Mako
I was thinking about that
After a 37 spin cycle bet the non hits
Progression?
Quote from: RouletteGhost on Aug 15, 02:00 PM 2018
Mako
I was thinking about that
After a 37 spin cycle bet the non hits
Progression?
Big Loser !
Quote from: winkel on Aug 15, 02:12 PM 2018
Big Loser !
Winkel's talking about me, not the nonhits... :xd:
I wouldn't try it though RG, it's enticing because you figure it's easier to manage with the fewer numbers to bet, slower progression, etc, but in the end some of these f-ing numbers sleep for a thousand years, it's insane.
The repeaters wound up much better in terms of profits and risk despite the logistics of actually tracking and playing them.
Got ya
When you bet the hits after the cycle what progression are you using. Or flat?
There is no need to wait for a full spin cycle before betting the non-hits.
I've said before 8 x 3, bet opposite.
Think Vaddi, then you will get it.
Again, define opposite?
Quote from: junscissorhands on Aug 15, 06:26 PM 2018
There is no need to wait for a full spin cycle before betting the non-hits.
I've said before 8 x 3, bet opposite.
Think Vaddi, then you will get it.
Opposite of what?
Quote from: junscissorhands on Aug 15, 06:26 PM 2018
There is no need to wait for a full spin cycle before betting the non-hits.
I've said before 8 x 3, bet opposite.
Think Vaddi, then you will get it.
So if in the 8 x 3 sample the repeaters are coming up more than expected, bet the non-hits?
And vice-versa, if you get to spin 24 and the repeaters are way behind expected, bet them instead?
Ahhhh...
cried wolf too quick.
Made a tiny mistake yesterday....
and the results are way more tasteless than previously thought.
Still, there is a little influence.
Hitrate % difference vs theory is like this:
1st 100k:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/15/temp_983741.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tTLC1)
2nd 100k:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/15/temp_652628.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tTmc5)
Shows somewhat of an upside down U-shaped line. Probably not enough of a margin to overcome house edge, unless you want to bet like 10 times in 100k spins.
Would be curious to try with more 100k spins...
So, no Eureka yet.
Quote from: Bigbroben on Aug 15, 09:34 PM 2018
Ahhhh...
cried wolf too quick.
Made a tiny mistake yesterday....
and the results are way more tasteless than previously thought.
Still, there is a little influence.
Hitrate % difference vs theory is like this:
1st 100k:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/15/temp_983741.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tTLC1)
2nd 100k:
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/15/temp_652628.png) (link:://:.pichost.org/image/tTmc5)
Shows somewhat of an upside down U-shaped line. Probably not enough of a margin to overcome house edge, unless you want to bet like 10 times in 100k spins.
Would be curious to try with more 100k spins...
So, no Eureka yet.
As I always said: in the long run, you will meet the values of the probability. (of course with a little variance).
That means in the short run: If we lost 20 bets on 19vs18 the odds for 19 now to hit in a higher frequence than 19/37 is increased. That doesn´t mean I changed the odds. I just watched it and find a time to bet or a time to bet the opposite.
Yes at spin 20 probability is more than double of spin 1, so a safer bet indeed.[/size]
GUT 18/19[/size]Spin 1 probability of a hit is 48.6486% Spin 2 probability of a hit is 73.6303%Spin 3 probability of a hit is 86.4588%Spin 4 probability of a hit is 93.0464%Spin 5 probability of a hit is 96.4292%Spin 6 probability of a hit is 98.1663%Spin 7 probability of a hit is 99.0584%Spin 8 probability of a hit is 99.5164%Spin 9 probability of a hit is 99.7517%Spin 10 probability of a hit is 99.8724%Spin 11 probability of a hit is 99.9345%Spin 12 probability of a hit is 99.9663%Spin 13 probability of a hit is 99.9827%Spin 14 probability of a hit is 99.9911%Spin 15 probability of a hit is 99.9954%Spin 16 probability of a hit is 99.9976%Spin 17 probability of a hit is 99.9987%Spin 18 probability of a hit is 99.9993%Spin 19 probability of a hit is 99.9996%Spin 20 probability of a hit is 99.9998%Spin 21 probability of a hit is 99.9999%Spin 22 probability of a hit is 99.9999%
For those that are using the original way I posted this system and are profiting, be sure to thank Winkel & Notto for their endless work with GUT, KTF, and trot. And of course Ayk for the wonderful tracker that makes things so much easier. Thank you to all three!
Sorry Nimo, little late.
Improved tracker available. Feel free to click on unhit, single, repeater, to highlight corresponding # on table.
Click them again to toggle back.
Why two different values under REP column?
1st col = x of 37 numbers are repeats
2nd col = total number of repeats hit. Means for example #24 hit 3 times. Its 1 repeater but has 2 repeat hits in our cycle. Hope could explain it understandable.
The row at tables bottom giving same data, just split up left and right. Zero is counted as it is.
Random button imports 37 spins from random.org. Trust em or not, i dont care ;)
For debug purpose unh unq and rep numbers are displayed under table, to cross check highlighted values.
Thx to 6th for insp. ideas.
Rolling37 v2
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/18/source.png) (link:://ayk.bplaced.net/rolling37v2/)
# Seams some ppl still not understood that this "rolling" tracker can be used as standard tracker too. Just change "max spins to track" in config section to whatever u want. Just wanted to hint, as got so many confusing questions.
Cheers
Quote from: ayk on Aug 18, 05:43 AM 2018
Sorry Nimo, little late.
Improved tracker available. Feel free to click on unhit, single, repeater, to highlight corresponding # on table.
Click them again to toggle back.
Why two different values under REP column?
1st col = x of 37 numbers are repeats
2nd col = total number of repeats hit. Means for example #24 hit 3 times. Its 1 repeater but has 2 repeat hits in our cycle. Hope could explain it understandable.
The row at tables bottom giving same data, just split up left and right. Zero is counted as it is.
Random button imports 37 spins from random.org. Trust em or not, i dont care ;)
For debug purpose unh unq and rep numbers are displayed under table, to cross check highlighted values.
Thx to 6th for insp. ideas.
Rolling37 v2
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/18/source.png) (link:://ayk.bplaced.net/rolling37v2/)
# Seams some ppl still not understood that this "rolling" tracker can be used as standard tracker too. Just change "max spins to track" in config section to whatever u want. Just wanted to hint, as got so many confusing questions.
Cheers
Cheers Ayk. Your trackers are very much appreciated.
Quote from: Blood Angel on Aug 18, 06:06 AM 2018
Cheers Ayk. Your trackers are very much appreciated.
Agreed!
Quote from: ayk on Aug 18, 05:43 AM 2018
Sorry Nimo, little late.
Improved tracker available. Feel free to click on unhit, single, repeater, to highlight corresponding # on table.
Click them again to toggle back.
Why two different values under REP column?
1st col = x of 37 numbers are repeats
2nd col = total number of repeats hit. Means for example #24 hit 3 times. Its 1 repeater but has 2 repeat hits in our cycle. Hope could explain it understandable.
The row at tables bottom giving same data, just split up left and right. Zero is counted as it is.
Random button imports 37 spins from random.org. Trust em or not, i dont care ;)
For debug purpose unh unq and rep numbers are displayed under table, to cross check highlighted values.
Thx to 6th for insp. ideas.
Rolling37 v2
(link:://:.pichost.org/images/2018/08/18/source.png) (link:://ayk.bplaced.net/rolling37v2/)
# Seams some ppl still not understood that this "rolling" tracker can be used as standard tracker too. Just change "max spins to track" in config section to whatever u want. Just wanted to hint, as got so many confusing questions.
Cheers
No probs ayk I cant think of anything else to upgrade it ..well at the moment 🤪