I saw a few post asking about my last math topic which i had deleted cause i didnt get a response. Since some ppl were interested, Here it is with 100 spins.....
Spin1 np
Spin2 np
Spin3 np
Spin4 np
Spin5 -1
Spin6 np
Spin7 np
Spin8 -1
Spin9 -1
Spin10 -2
Spin11 np
Spin12 np
Spin13 np
Spin14 np
Spin15 np
Spin16 -1
Spin17 -1
Spin18 -2 12
Spin19 np
Spin20 np
Spin21 -1 12
Spin22 np
Spin23 np
Spin24 np
Spin25 -2 12
Spin26 np
Spin27 np
Spin28 -1
Spin29 -1
Spin30 -2
Spin31 np
Spin32 np
Spin33 np
Spin34 -1
Spin35 -1 12
Spin36 np
Spin37 -1 12
Spin38 np
Spin39 -1
Spin40 -1
Spin41 -1 12
Spin42 np
Spin43 -1
Spin44 -2
Spin45 np
Spin46 -2
Spin47 np
Spin48 -1 12
Spin49 np
Spin50 -1
Spin51 -2
Spin52 -2
Spin53 -3
Spin54 -3
Spin55 np
Spin56 -1 12
Spin57 np
Spin58 -1
Spin59 -2
Spin60 -1
Spin61 -3 12
Spin62 np
Spin63 -1
Spin64 -2
Spin65 -1
Spin66 -1
Spin67 -2 12
Spin68 np
Spin69 np
Spin70 np
Spin71 -1
Spin72 -2
Spin73 np
Spin74 -2
Spin75 -2
Spin76 -4 12
Spin77 np
Spin78 np
Spin79 np
Spin80 np
Spin81 -1 12
Spin82 -1
Spin83 -1
Spin84 -1
Spin85 -1
Spin86 -1 12
Spin87 -1
Spin88 -2
Spin89 -2
Spin90 -2
Spin91 -1
Spin92 -1
Spin93 -2
Spin94 np
Spin95 np
Spin96 -1 12
Spin97 np
Spin98 -1
Spin99 -1
Spin100 np
Total Profit 83
np means no play
-1 means i played 1 street
-2 means i played 2 streets
etc
12 to the right means i won
My questions...
1. how would you calculate an edge?
2. The spins i did not play were used to decide if a play was available. Do i also count the spins i did not play in the calculations?
The calculation of edge is the expected value(EV) calculation -
EV = [p(win) - p(loss)] x 100%
stated in %
where p is the probability of the event
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 01:43 AM 2018
The calculation of edge is the expected value(EV) calculation -
EV = [p(win) - p(loss)] x 100%
stated in %
where p is the probability of the event
This can only be done if it’s a set number being used per spin. But my bet is changing between 1 street to 4 streets.
So how would you calculate it? Using the ev calculation
You calculate them separately
EV1 = [p(win1) - p(loss1)] x 100%
EV2 = [p(win2) - p(loss1)] x 100%
......and so on
Each different bets of 1, 2, 3, 4 are separate giving different edge
If you are looking at the entire system as a whole then you have to define clearly your standard play session
How much bets you lay out vs how much total payments you receive in each session over a large population to get the average number
What you want to determine is for every $1 bet what is the probability of win, and the probability of loss for a standard session played to calculate the systems edge as a whole
First you have to identify all states of your game where you can say :
- I lost (calculate the probability to loose) at this point
- I won (calculate the probability to win) at this point
Like luckyfella described
Personally I prefer to calculate it using the definition often used by sports bettors, it's called the Yield and the formula is very simple :
Yield = Profit/Loss / Total money staked
So just work out the profit or loss for any sequence of bets and then add up all the bets you made (in terms of stakes, so it doesn't matter if you used a progression.) Divide the first by the second. Easy to calculate in a spreadsheet. For your sequence I made it a total of 85 units staked, so the yield (edge) is 83/85 = 97.65%
Quote from: Herby on Oct 12, 03:20 AM 2018
First you have to identify all states of your game where you can say :
- I lost (calculate the probability to loose) at this point
- I won (calculate the probability to win) at this point
Like luckyfella described
This wont work because the bet range depending on what happening in the game. so the last few spins wont look the same or the betting.
Quote from: Joe on Oct 12, 04:07 AM 2018
Personally I prefer to calculate it using the definition often used by sports bettors, it's called the Yield and the formula is very simple :
Yield = Profit/Loss / Total money staked
So just work out the profit or loss for any sequence of bets and then add up all the bets you made (in terms of stakes, so it doesn't matter if you used a progression.) Divide the first by the second. Easy to calculate in a spreadsheet. For your sequence I made it a total of 85 units staked, so the yield (edge) is 83/85 = 97.65%
This seems more usable but then we would have to include all spins watched.
-1 = 36
-2 = 18
-3 = 3
-4 = 1
58 bets placed
42 np
Any no bets are just ignored.
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 04:17 AM 2018
-1 = 36
-2 = 18
-3 = 3
-4 = 1
I think you may have misunderstood. You want the total staked, which is (36 * 1) + (18 * 2) + (3 * 3) + (1 * 4) = 85
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 04:11 AM 2018
This wont work because the bet range depending on what happening in the game. so the last few spins wont look the same or the betting.
My experience: I did lots of more ore less complicated simulations.
It always turns out that there is a
finite amount of states with maybe different probabilities to appear.
With a finite amount of states and their probabilities the calculation can be made.
I don't assume that you have
infinite possibilities of betting situations.
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 01:01 AM 2018how would you calculate an edge?
Quote from: luckyfella on Oct 12, 01:43 AM 2018The calculation of edge is the expected value(EV) calculation -
EV = [p(win) - p(loss)] x 100%
Edge is calculated not like write luckyfella. Every number is like distance from something or position in some specifical time. So to have an edge - you must predict what number will win more often than random. I explained how is possible to calculate if you have an edge or not by distances between the predicted number and the real winning number simply by calculating the distance between your prediction and real number - winner.
9 number distance show absolutely random result So if average distance is near to 9 - you have no edge, no matter even if you won.
Quote from: Herby on Oct 12, 04:35 AM 2018
My experience: I did lots of more ore less complicated simulations.
It always turns out that there is a finite amount of states with maybe different probabilities to appear.
With a finite amount of states and their probabilities the calculation can be made.
I don't assume that you have infinite possibilities of betting situations.
to many possibilities to go this route, i cant even imagine the amount of numbers to give you an idea.
Quote from: Bebediktus3 on Oct 12, 09:46 AM 2018
Edge is calculated not like write luckyfella. Every number is like distance from something or position in some specifical time. So to have an edge - you must predict what number will win more often than random. I explained how is possible to calculate if you have an edge or not by distances between the predicted number and the real winning number simply by calculating the distance between your prediction and real number - winner.
9 number distance show absolutely random result So if average distance is near to 9 - you have no edge, no matter even if you won.
It seems your speaking of something totally different.... in my original post i am using streets
To better understand you......can you give an example of what you mean?
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 12, 07:09 PM 2018in my original post i am using streets
On wheel are no streets, so you bet on numbers. And the ball falls not on the table but on the wheel and is one number which is the winner. So, always before bet, you must think about some number as expected winner and between it and the real winner you can calculate distance on the wheel...
if you want to calculate edge accordingly what you bet and what you won - you can't do that on 100 spins... On 100 spins can be all - you can win where you absolutely not have an edge and can lose where is a huge edge.
At all to think that you have an edge because you won is not right. You win because - have an edge, but not opposite - have an edge because of win.
Hi MoneyT101,
For your decicions to bet or no bet you only consider the properties (whatever they are) of the streets ?
Why are you still playing the waiting game?
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 13, 07:18 AM 2018
Why are you still playing the waiting game?
Im not waiting :thumbsup:
np is a decision, i am playing and choosing not to bet because gameplay is random
Quote from: Herby on Oct 13, 04:16 AM 2018
Hi MoneyT101,
For your decicions to bet or no bet you only consider the properties (whatever they are) of the streets ?
i guess i just calculate this individually and then add it all up
-1 = 36
-2 = 18
-3 = 3
-4 = 1
Quote from: MoneyT101 on Oct 13, 09:11 AM 2018
Im not waiting :thumbsup:
np is a decision, i am playing and choosing not to bet because gameplay is random
Ok, I guess.
Quote from: Blueprint on Oct 13, 09:18 AM 2018
Ok, I guess.
yea your right! To win or to break even i guess... lets look at a little bit of detail
Spin 1-18...Staked 9 won 12 = profit 3
spin 19-21..staked 1 won 12= profit 11
Spin 22-25....staked 2 won 12=profit 10
Spin 26-35....staked 5 won 12=profit 7
spin 36-37...staked 1 won 12=profit 11
Spin 38-41....staked 3 won 12= profit 9
Spin 42-48...staked 6 won 12=profit 6
spin 50-56...staked 12 won 12=profit 0spin 57-61...staked 7 won 12= profit 5
Spin 62-67...staked 7 won 12 =profit 5
spin 68-76...staked 11 won 12= profit 1
spin 77-81...staked 1 won 12= profit 11
spin 82-86...staked 5 won 12= profit 7
spin 87-96....staked 12 won 12=profit 0spin 97-100...staked 2
ended session at 100 spins
Cool :thumbsup: