Switching systems. A form of HAR?

[TwoCatSam]

Hello

While walking the dog people, I had a thought.

I have heard it said--and have said it myself--that playing a system too long is just asking for the RFH to get you.  Switch systems, some say, and out run the Devil

Suppose you had seven systems.  You play #1 on Sunday and on to #7 on Saturday.  Some would say this is good, as you're not sticking with the same thing all the time.

Now imagine you only play on Sunday.  The wheel does not know you did not play the other days.  So as far as systems are concerned, you are keeping with your plan.  Systems don't know they haven't been played, either.

Isn't this basically HAR.  You hit on Sunday and run 'till next Sunday.

If it's not the same thing, someone explain the difference to me.

Sam

[Ralph]

It is obvious, if two players play two difference methods, or bet different chances, they will not get the same win/loss.
If we play long enough a losing streak will come.  We are not sure if it helps switching methods, but stay with the same will soon or later produce a bad streak. If it does not, we are very lucky, the method as such can not stand all possible outcomes.

HAR and switch is not the same, we have one life long session, which most of us do not in a single timeframe. Where the put the pauses CAN have impact, we know if the for example check all the numbers the table we use to play on during a year check if we did better if we played an other time , but we can never see it beforehand. If we then do "should" "would" "Could" I think we can judge if we play at the "right" time and used the "right" method.

Hit ans run can be a way to protect the bankroll, play less lose less. Stop while a head and if we lose next time, we may have get paid from other sources and can supply  some more money without get rammed.

The switching never guarantee you will be better of, but it gives a feeling of "not put all eggs in the same basket".

We can't really know  that's happen next!

[Turner]

I had a similar thought in the bath. I can think best up to my neck in hot water. Random isnt just there. You have to observe it. I tried playing one number from five tables. Spin one...table one...spin two...table two etc. Spin six was back at table one. The resulting 37 had 15 hits. Most unusual.
I think sam would have to play a different system every sunday. What went between isnt his observation. Every sunday is his dip into observing random.
Bollox probably

[TwoCatSam]

Ralph

I almost agree with you.  I will concede one thing:  Switching from system #1 to #2 does NOT guarantee a win.  System #2 could lose right out of the gate. 

I guess my whole post was saying this:  I've read Bayes and others who explain why HAR is poppyc***, but I still am haunted by the possibility.  Perhaps I'm just lured by "Gambler's Fallacy".  I think you are the most right when you say we are only stretching our money and postponing the loss. 

So I read into your post and into all your posts these two things respectively:

1.  HAR and switching will--in the "long run"--produce the same result.
2.  If you ain't lucky, look out for Chucky.

(Chucky was an evil little doll that came to life and murdered people.  It's a movie, or several.)

Now, darnit, I want that phrase to be mine.  "If you ain't lucky, look out for Chucky."  A small fee will accrue to those to use it!!

Turner

Many people have their best ideas in the shower/bath.  They did a study on that and "they" are always right.  Now when I shower next week, I am going to muse on this:  The resulting 37 had 15 hits.  What the heck does that mean?

Sam

[Ralph]

Many people have their best ideas in the shower/bath.  They did a study on that and "they" are always right.  Now when I shower next week, I am going to muse on this:  The resulting 37 had 15 hits.  What the heck does that mean?

Sam

Win 15 of 37 - was it at straight up or EC?




Sam!

Good methods I think give us some framework to stay in, the odds are the same, but the rules we apply, can help.

Delay the ultimate loss until we are not able to bet is the successfull road!

[TwoCatSam]

Win 154 of 37

Where does "154" come from?

I guess he won 15 times in a rotation of 37 spins.  Anything but ECs would show a whale of a profit.  Especially singles or splits.  Even the dozens would almost double the bankroll.

Turner,

Get out of the bath and explain. 

Sam

[Ralph]

Win 154 of 37

Where does "154" come from?

I guess he won 15 times in a rotation of 37 spins.  Anything but ECs would show a whale of a profit.  Especially singles or splits.  Even the dozens would almost double the bankroll.

Turner,

Get out of the bath and explain. 

Sam

I have corrected my missspelling, I did not found my glasses which is half an inch thick.

[Turner]

Ralph

  The resulting 37 had 15 hits.  What the heck does that mean?

Sam

Sam...Law of the Third. Usually, the old Bell Curve is faithful to 37 spins. Usually 24 hit 13 don't. 22 is common as is 19 or 27.

15 is never seen. some had hit 6 times.

It wasn't random....or I just saw my first 15 ever....dunno?

Armchair conclusion:

By jumping from one session of random numbers to another to make 37, It wasn't random.
If a random number is sat there having no idea what the last one was or the next one is, the resulting 37 spins made from samples of 5 other sets of spins would have been 24 hit, 13 not hit (or close)

it wasn't.

I concluded that you have "your session". You see random numbers and how they act over time when you observe them.

Perhaps I don't even know how to say what I'm thinking.