Advantage-play......this is too funny

[MrJ]

How many times have I argued with other Advantage-play (cough) guys here regarding using PAST numbers? They *ALL* say, using past numbers in ANY form is gamblers fallacy and a NO, NO.

Really? >>

[MrJ]

I have no idea why the link does not work on THIS board? So......link:://vlsroulette.com/index.php?topic=19792.msg144209;topicseen#msg144209

[nitrix]

I don't want to start a war but I really like their "Expert" rank. Gave me a smile...

[MrJ]

My title is......'VB2 Advanced'.

Thank God for that, I was getting worried.

Ken

[Juiced91]

Ken the way I read it was they wait that many spins. They never said they used those spins to determine any future bets like we do. Well that's what I understood. But I don't know anything about that stuff anyway.

[MrJ]

What's the definition of this? ...."using those spins". 

I could re-word my point/question. Can they place bets WITHOUT VIEWING (use whatever term you want) PAST spins? The answer is NO. So in their situation, they do NEED past number statistics.

Ken

[Juiced91]

Yes correct. They need to see what's happening on the table with statistics like you said. So if they say they can without it. That's a lie.

[kelly]

You can reword it anyway you like it doesn`t change the context.  We don`t need the past numbers, not even previous spins.  We can start playing from spin one with a wild bet and then adjust as we go along.  But the return for the session is usually higher if you don`t make any bets before you know whats going on and save the wild bets that has an expectation of -2.7%.


Sometimes where they have a "bell politic" where they start an electronic noise just before a VB player is about to make a bet, if they suspect one is present, it can be helpfull to act like Lucky Luke and make all sort of bets on the EC or Dozens, maybe even do some number tracking so they think we are Mr J,  and that way make them stay loose on the bell politic.

[MrJ]

This is YOUR QUOTE Kelly >> "an advantage player uses past spins".

"We can start playing from spin one with a wild bet and then adjust as we go along" >>> Lets take a closer look at this. So lets say for that 'wild bet'........a 24 hits. Do you then take the KNOWLEDGE that the 24 just hit and 'adjust' as needed? What would you do with the INFORMATION that the 24 has hit?

Ken

[kelly]

The number 24 would as such not mean anything.  What would mean something is how many pockets the outcome number would be from my prediction, If the rotor was spinning with 3.0 sec, per, revoloution and 24 was +8 pockets from my prediction, it would mean that i would have to adjust the point where i am reading the outcome number, 8 pockets to the left next time this moment arrives. At this point i have no knowledge of the ball scatter length except previous experience with this ball type, so  it woiuld be a little bit of guess work in the beginning.


To play it properly we do need past spins, but not past numbers. Gamblers Fallacy is when past numbers gives an expectation of future numbers. Whatever comes out numberwise has no influence on the decisions.  The distance between the predictions and the outcome number means something. 


Basicly, if i know when the ball is going to drop in 9 seconds and the wheel is turning with a speed of 3.0 sec per rev. i can just look in the bowl and read which number is below the ball at this moment.  This number is where the ball is going to drop on.  I would have to adjust for the average scatter, but if we for simplicity say that the average scatter is 0 pockets, the number below the ball at this moment is also the prediction number.

Or simplistic put: If i was told the tilt high point was at 2 oclock diamond and that the average scatter was 12 pockets i would not need any past spins at all.

Regardless of past numbers.

I know i just wasted 5 minutes but what the heck.

[MrJ]

"To play it properly we do need past spins, but not past numbers" >>> You can fool some of these guys but not me. So now we are debating the definitions between spins vs. numbers? (LoL) What do you think makes up those spins? Animal crackers?

Its a very, very, very simple question......can you (as an Advantage-play guy) walk up to a table (the history board is broke), and start betting from the first spin? After that ONE spin (win or lose) move on to the next table for, ONE spin (win or lose)......move on to the next table for, ONE spin (win or lose)......move on to the next table for, ONE spin (win or lose).......move on to the next table for, ONE spin  etc.

As goofy as this may sound, CAN YOU do this with your Advantage-play (cough) style of play? If no, why not? Its rhetorical but I can't wait to read your crafty answer. FACT being, no you can NOT, nor can I and nor can MOST people that play almost ANY type roulette method or Advantage-play.

Ken

[kelly]

And its a simple answer.

If you tell me the tilt high and the average scatter up front i can play  any table from spin 1. 


I know you dont agree that measuring the physics in past spins is different than noting down numbers. Well, AP is your favourite hate passion so i guess most facts well propell off.


The physichs do NOT change.  A Teflon ball with an average scatter of 10 - 12 pockets is not suddenly changing its average to 28 pockets simply because it has  a certain physich composition that makes it impossible.


If a ball track is slightly defect or the wheel is slightly unbalanced, the tilt is not suddenly going to change a lot unless someone manually do something about it.


Thats what is being collected in past spins, not numbers.   Numbers come and go, the physics of the wheel remains the same unless maintenence steps in and do something. 


But you are right, we do need past spins since they won`t allow us to put a level in the ball track.

[MrJ]

"If you tell me the tilt high and the average scatter up front i can play" >>> No, I won't tell you a thing, you have no up front information.

"I know you don't agree that measuring the physics in past spins is different than noting down numbers" >>> You got me all wrong Kelly. It is different, I never argued that point. My point has ALWAYS been, you guys DO use past numbers.......oops sorry, past spins.

Question for you Kelly. You seem to stay away from using the word 'numbers'. Alright, lets say (this is pretend so just play along) there is a wheel with NO numbers, only pockets and no markings on the wheel. You look at the 'spins' to locate whatever, how crucial are those numbers now? I'm not saying the 4-21-2 are 'important', but you do need to jot down (or remember) certain numbers at least for betting purposes, correct? When you bet, if memory serves me, you do bet on numbers, correct? You dont give the dealer your chips and say......place these on the tilted section.

"But you are right, we do need past spins" >>> Thank you. I already knew that but thank you.

I give you credit on one thing Kelly. You at least answer me and contribute. Other AP guys feel cornered when I grill them (its a gift I have) and they simply choose to RUN and HIDE and then claim......."well its a secret, I really cant talk about it".

You dont do that and its much appreciated, I do mean that !!

Ken

[iggiv]

Аdvantage play is not a myth, Ken. I don't understand what is your point. Advantage play is based on certain physical properties of the wheel, what's wrong with that? There is nothing to argue about.
The only thing is that it is very hard. It is much easier to pick certain numbers and play them.

[kelly]

You seems to think that AP is some kind of voodoo which is aint. Advantage play is simply exploring a defect in the wheel.   Usually you can`t see that defect with the eye, but you can see that the ball reacts on it.  And you use that knowledge to your advantage.   Obviously you need to see how the ball reacts and you need to see some spins for that. 


The only issue i have is that you basket that knowledge in the same basket as gamblers fallacy  because its past spins.  The info you get by collecting numbers is a random stream.


The physical data from a "defect" wheel shows data (not numbers)   that clumps up way past 3, 4 or 5 Standard Deviations.  The ordinary number stream moves around between 1 and 2 standard deviations in rare cases touches 3 standard deviations.  Its obviously much easyer to make a profit where the fluctations in one direction goes up in 4 or 5 SD, rather than in streams where the fluctations in a normal distribution only touches 2 SD in 94% of all cases. 


The defects im talking about are usually not big enough to influence the number stream in any way. If you know what to look for you would pretty fast agree to, that there are far between absoloutely perfect wheels.   


Laurance challenged the casinos some time ago, but no one took the challenge.


link:://:.gamingfloor.biz/forum/showthread.php?t=2038&highlight=laurance+challenge


He wants 2500 recorded data, (past spins) but is then required to bet every spin for 5000 spins.