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Overcoming variance with Deficit Recovery

Started by falkor2k15, Feb 08, 09:06 AM 2017

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falkor2k15

This forum seems dead... nobody discussing any good ideas other than the usual... random triggers.

I think I've finally figured out how to beat Roulette thanks to some recent deep thought on the subject as well as a reminder from member Madi about some old advice regarding dispersion and avoiding variance. Madi also mentioned about a "light progression" - something that has been touted about quite a lot and may actually be a requirement. Thanks Madi!  :thumbsup:

We need to use outcomes that are not equally likely, i.e. Dozen Cycles CL1-3, and in 100 cycles we can say that variance would have reduced to the point where we can predict CL2 will be greater than CL1, which in turn will be greater than CL3, i.e. 33-44-22 to match maths expectation after 100 cycles; we can be pretty sure most will end up like that: CL2 > CL1 > CL3. This is known as "full recovery".

Before reaching full recovery we typically start out with a deficit/distance/gap that needs to be reduced and closed:
402 = 4 x CL1, 0 x CL2, 2 x CL3

CL2 now has a deficit of 5, i.e. it needs a total of 5 wins to recover and overtake CL1, which we know is how it will eventually end after however many number of cycles it takes.

So we bet CL2 and win:
412

We bet CL2 again but lose
413

We now stop betting as the deficit/gap becomes wider.
513

So we don't bet and get a virtual win:
523

The gap is now starting to close - but this is the 2nd time we tried to jump on that wave - so we need to increase our bet, i.e. a steady progression
533

Recovery is now eminent - overall we expect more wins than losses by the time we reach full recovery.
543
553
554
564

We've now reached full recovery: CL2 > CL1 > CL3.

So to recap: once a gap/distance has formed due to variance - it has to close (or "recover"). Overall we expect more wins than losses, but depending on the amount of swings will depend on how we increase chips.

Here's an example of bad variance/dispersion: 426

Based on the above example recovery can come in several stages prior to full recovery:
*CL2 > CL3 but not CL1, i.e. 876
*CL2 > CL1 but not CL3, i.e. 456
*CL1 > CL3 but less than CL2, i.e. 726
*CL2 > CL1 > CL3, i.e. 786

Above there is a maximum of 4 stages to reaching full recovery, so it may be possible to win at the partial recovery stage.

When tracking 6 outcomes that are not equally likely, i.e. Line Cycles or 6 options (Dozen Cycles Order+CL) then we have at least 6 possible stages before full recovery.

Any questions/feedback?
"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

Turner

Quote from: falkor2k15 on Feb 08, 09:06 AM 2017nobody discussing any good ideas
I have to tell you, I dont discuss in your posts because I have to admit, I havnt got a clue what you are talking about

Its not in a language I understand.

Hope that helps.

denzie

Quote from: Turner on Feb 08, 10:50 AM 2017
I have to tell you, I dont discuss in your posts because I have to admit, I havnt got a clue what you are talking about

Its not in a language I understand.

Hope that helps.

Same here  :question:
As spins roll off our predictions get better

falkor2k15

"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

Rolletti

I really would like to see a system based on your insightes be coded. Should not be too hard to do and check if it holds up flat bet or is working with progressions.

Unfortunately I expect it to have the same variance as just playing dozens straight away.

denzie

Quote from: falkor2k15 on Feb 08, 11:03 AM 2017
What part isn't clear?  :question:

About all of it.

Now you talk about variance and recovery.
Did you saw how TG explained how the HE was break even after betting when a # number showed up? 

Meaning most sessions we win easily. But those we didn't we could certainly reduce our loss or come out winning  ;)

Stop with dozens and columns . Inside bets only. Imo
As spins roll off our predictions get better

falkor2k15

All of it!? Sounds like an overstatement! I would suggest going over each paragraph, if not sentence, and state which part(s) you understand and which part(s) you don't. You could also consider possible interpretations and describe how it comes across as non-nonsensical, i.e. "Are you perhaps referring to this or this?" or "You mean when this happens this happens?" or "What does that abbreviation/term mean? I never heard of that before" or "How can that be the same as that because below you said it was that". These are all examples of trying to understand what somebody is saying and communicating feedback to aid in working towards a more common understanding. Unless efforts are made here then it would suggest more the laziness of the reader as opposed to the incoherency of the writer.
"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

falkor2k15

Quote from: Rolletti on Feb 08, 11:06 AM 2017
I really would like to see a system based on your insightes be coded. Should not be too hard to do and check if it holds up flat bet or is working with progressions.

Unfortunately I expect it to have the same variance as just playing dozens straight away.
I don't think it can work with flat-betting - it will need a steady progression for each swing. Perhaps with a deeper study of the dispersion waves and the limits of the outward swing, a flat-betting solution could be found. However, here we only bet during recovery - we don't bet when more deficit is being formed.
"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

falkor2k15

I wanted to share some stats regarding CL2 recovery:

CL2 Recovered
Cycle 144%
Cycle 220%
Cycle 342%
Cycle 433%
Cycle 542%
Cycle 646%
Cycle 748%
Cycle 847%
Cycle 951%
Cycle 1057%

0103811044%11025391111169821211494017%221124662311097813%
100286590201693020%1201690120%220113851311092313%3218455
0011910001116815210128062111136512285172228379
85869101128600211130313%130996012%230844810%13274579%
200957403075109%1127629320638714172968%
002429920163910316596311636124056477%
858690125615310566421262293305635
1024334022504714055756%3124172
300307604034284%03237714%1233859
003951301284404136804%4113252
85869202274311328604203182
0131732410232815029983%
103131002318252%2132729
400105105015382%04225263%
004175302150705119782%
8586940112240331623
2031062114906
014462510904
500331402794
1043290606631%
00546303662
85869024626
501460
204364
015123
600111
10582
0068
44%20%42%33%42%8586946%
Event 1Event 2Event 3Event 4Event 5Event 6
"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

Rolletti

What means spelled out in words? If you care, please!

RouletteGhost

Quote from: Rolletti on Feb 08, 12:52 PM 2017
What means spelled out in words? If you care, please!

We will get nothing

I think he is a misinformation agent employed by the NWO
the key to winning with systems : play for a statistically irrelevant number of spins

link:[url="s://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nmJKY59NX8o"]s://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nmJKY59NX8o[/url]

falkor2k15

It means that after 10 cycles 57% of CL2 deficits have already recovered, i.e. CL2 is greater than CL1 and CL3. Recovery for CL2 = partial recovery; full recovery is when CL2 has recovered but also CL1 is higher than CL3. Remember, maths expectation is:
CL1 = 33%
CL2 = 44%
CL3 = 22%

If CL1 is ahead of CL2; or CL3 is ahead of either; then it's due to variance - specifically dispersion (=negative variance).

After 100 cycles CL2 should be 99% recovered for all permutations I would imagine.
"Trotity trot, trotity trot, the noughts became overtly hot! Merily, merily, merily, merily, the 2s went gently down the stream..."¸¸.•*¨*•♫♪:

Madi

I dont know about TG . Did he reveal full system ? He said dont bet the number which one didnt appear. Ok i got his point. Then bet on landed number. Not betting on unhit he avoided say 12 number. Good. Now lets take an example. Say in 37 spin cycle 25 single and 12 double hit only. We got 12 double hit by betting on single hit thats good.before starting a 37 spin cycle each number got 1 expectation. The landed number already fulfill its expectation. You are losing on those 12 single hit number but how can we blame those number bcz they fulfill their expectation. I dont know how tg play? To win that 37 spin cycle u need 24 hit or some kind of double hit in those numbers which apear two times.

Madi

@ falkor

If u come with example i think work better for everyone.

denzie

Quote from: Madi on Feb 08, 01:16 PM 2017
To win that 37 spin cycle u need 24 hit or some kind of double hit in those numbers which apear two times.

Two or more times with a positive progression  :)

And knowing how to recover if we get a cycle that isn't hitting on average. That's the most important part of it.
As spins roll off our predictions get better

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