Was this overlooked or just more gamblers fallacy?

[Demarchy]

I was reading through lots of threads and I came across this in "beating roulette with math".

Summe der eingelesenen Coups: 1.000.000
1 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
2 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
3 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
4 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
[/size] 5 PMZen pro Rotation:       0[/size] 6 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
7 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
8 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
9 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
10 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
11 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
12 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
13 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
14 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
15 PMZen pro Rotation:       3
16 PMZen pro Rotation:      33
17 PMZen pro Rotation:     329
18 PMZen pro Rotation:    1866
19 PMZen pro Rotation:    7755
20 PMZen pro Rotation:   25768
21 PMZen pro Rotation:   64143
22 PMZen pro Rotation:  124890
23 PMZen pro Rotation:  183836
24 PMZen pro Rotation:  207486
25 PMZen pro Rotation:  179348
26 PMZen pro Rotation:  117390
27 PMZen pro Rotation:   58398
28 PMZen pro Rotation:   21564
29 PMZen pro Rotation:    5911
30 PMZen pro Rotation:    1094
31 PMZen pro Rotation:     129
32 PMZen pro Rotation:      20
33 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
34 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
35 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
36 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
37 PMZen pro Rotation:       0
Summe/Abschnitte     :  999963 zu je 37 Coups

He took 1 mill spin and every time 37 numbers had appeared it was 1 rotation and the computer noted how many different numbers had appeared. He then rewrote the program to get more rotations out of the 1 mill spin so that when spin 38 appeared, the spin 1 disappeared and it was then a new rotation. When spin 39 appeared, spin 2 disappeared. That way he managed to get 999963 rotations out of 1 mill spins. Otherwise he would have needed some 37.000.000 spins to get 1 mill rotations.
As you see up to 32 different numbers is capable of appearing. I know, 37 is possible, but that didn`t happen.

It was towards the end of the topic and didn't get much attention. But it's implications could be important. I'm am unsure on how to make use of this for betting but one rough idea comes to mind.

First you track 36 spins and count how many unique numbers you have. If you have less than the 24 average, lets say for example 22 unique numbers. Then according to the data above you are more likely to get another unhit number. So you make a bet on the 15 unhit numbers. 

You could also make abet if you have more than 24 unique numbers, lets say 26 unique numbers. So according to the above data we are less likely to get another unhit number so we bet on the 26 unique numbers.

Win or lose, once this bet is over, you add the newly hit number to your tracking, and cross off the 1st number to give you another 36 numbers to use and see what your next bet is.

Using the data above you can create a stacking plan based on its probabilities, so that you bet more when the odds are in your favour and less when they are not as favourable. Maybe Kelly's criterion might help us here since we know the rough probabilities and how many unique numbers we can have in 37 spins.

This all sounds good to me, but it reeks of gamblers fallacy. The fact that I'm suggesting you can get odds that differ from the usual 2.7% of any number being hit on any given spin worries me, and goes against common sense.

Anyway hopefully some more experienced players can give me their thoughts on this and maybe abetter way to make use of this data for a superior system.

Thanks
Demarchy

P.S whilst writing this I actually thought of a better method of play using those numbers but I have to go to work now so I'll post it later tonight when I get home.

[Turner]

I'm scared now. I typed virtually what you said ....yesterday...and it failed to upload. Couldnt be arsed typing again.
Basically..if less than 22 at 33 spins...stats say sleepers hit to 37... If 24 hit...repeats will hit

This is something I have tested many times....

Heres the problem

24 numbers or 17 numbers is great odds to bet with in EC/dozen ideas, but straight up, its heavy

also, its difficult to place 24 ish numbers accuratley in 2 mins..and mistakes can be made.

Imagine placing the same bet on a loss with a progression after a loss.

Also, the progression would have to be 1-3-9-27 or there abouts, but that's cool on 1u, not 24u

And finally, variance

why shouldnt 22 stay as 22 for 5 spins? its within the 60% of the Bell curve and is acceptable as a result

why shouldnt 24 go to 28....its also statistically acceptable.

same for E/C series. 5 reds show, and only 1 should show in 100 spins, so  RRRRRBBBB and bet R because statistics say a second 5 in a row is rare, and red shows 4 more times. that's something like one "8 in a row" every 300 spins statistically.

How lucky were you to see it?

This is how lucky you were.....33 spins, 19 have shown. Lets bet sleepers because statistics say that 24 is the most common in 37.
then the next 3 spins are out of the same 19 (goes on to be 22 at 37 spins...quite ok)

that's Stats....that's luck...that's roulette and random numbers.

[ignatus]

I think it's a good idea, do 24 spins and then bet the unhit numbers.

I think problem is tracking do 24 spins (especially playing live) will take forever,...nobody wish to do 24 spins before each bet, even if it's a good idea

There are more problems; one is with progression for 15 numbers.

Even though I think it's a good bet and i believe unhit numbers will hit more than already hit numbers, you can never be sure, and 15 numbers with negative progression will not last long.

Theory is different from reality, how many times have i come up with a good idea, had a few lucky runs, then luck will turn

[Skakus]

...how many times have i come up with a good idea...

...I'm stll waiting. 

[ignatus]

...I'm stll waiting. 

it's the nature of the game, don't blame me 

[rouletteKEY]

how many times have i come up with a good idea

link:://:.youtube.com/watch?v=K8E_zMLCRNg

[Demarchy]

Thanks for the replies guys.

I actually tested the method in my original post when I got home work, flat betting on for real money on RNG roulette with £0.01. And it's done well so far. I forgot to take note of my starting bankroll, but I tested 18 (48 total, minus the first 36 spins to track )spins, I know a really small sample size,  but I won roughly 2 third of my bets putting me well over 100 units profit. I'll test again tomorrow to see what happens, as it will probably go horribly wrong no doubt.

I had thought of a better system earlier, but I didn't write it down, and work made me forget it, hopefully it will come back to me tomorrow.

At the end of the day this will probably all come to nothing, but looking at the data above, there just has to be something there. The fact that the minimum unique numbers was 15 in 37 spins, even though 1 through 14 is just as possible theoretically as any other number of uniques. At the other end of the scale, there is nothing over 32. And the average is 24, and your 60% likely to get anywhere between 22-26 unique numbers.

It will take a smarter person than myself to see the magic formula here if one exists.

[Turner]

Theres a choice to be had every time unfortunatly..and each choice has its merits depending what camp you sit in. Follow the dealer....dont follow the dealer...follow the stats...follow the variance.
Bet 5 streets for great coverage and odds. Which street will show?
Instead....bet just that street on its own...it sleeps for 40 spins.

[winkel]

Thanks for the replies guys.

...

It will take a smarter person than myself to see the magic formula here if one exists.

Hi,

as you quoted my statistics I will answer.

You will get following results: if you bet only the sleepers you will win as the maths will allow you.

The extract of this statistics lead me to G.U.T. See in "winkel's sector" for more details and the solution of this statistics.

br
winkel

[Demarchy]

Thanks winkel, your strategy is very intriguing, but unfortunately I didn't really understand too much of it. I think i got the tracking down and that you bet the unhit numbers when you get a trigger, but I didn't understand the triggers. I'll go over it again, but it would be helpful if some one could write down the method of play in the simplest language possible.