Even Odds

[doubledime]

My only comment is that in your example the most loses in a row is, I believe 6.  How many times have we seen 10 loses or 14 or more loses in a row.  I would like to see how well this works under those circumstances.  We all know they do happen more than we would like.

[psimoes]

For 12 losses in a row it would mean two identical patterns-of-12 in a row if we're betting for the difference, or two mirror-imaged patterns-of-12 in a row if we're betting for a repetition, to happen. It's very unlikely to occur 2 times in a row in 5690 spins. However, a series of zeros hitting at the wrongest of times will ruin all expectations. Hence the long progression required.

If or when that happens, either we extend the progression or we accept the loss hoping we have already made a profit that'll cover it or we're about to in the forthcoming sessions.

1+2+3+2+4+6+3+6+9+4+8+12=60u

[doubledime]

Thank you ps for your quick response. 

[psimoes]

You're welcome.

Long strings of losses with very few Wins in the middle means trouble. So we'll have to extend the present progression.

I'm thinking about 3 Sets of 4 Levels:

1st Set: 1-2-3, 2-3-4, 3-6-9, 4-8-12

2nd Set: 2-4-6, 4-8-12, 6-12-18, 8-16-24

3rd Set: 4-8-12, 8-16-24, 12-24-36, 16-32-48

It's so overkill it isn't funny. I attach the worst run so far, where it got to the 1st level of the 2nd set. It's volatile but the "highs get higher than the lows get lower", so to speak. After 316 spins session ended at a new high of 73 units.

[ego]

I have been testing the progression with my own bet selection and i have to say that the original progression you post are very powerfull.
When i was up 40/50 units the progression bust - but the method did not tank - because i did not use the progression at this stage.

I come to a conclusion, when you are up you can only play with winnings and not apply the progression as you hit a bad strike.
This will keep us in the game longer.

So i am saying that we are only at risk at beginning of the game.
At least that is the idea.

Other idea is when you reach half the amount of money of the progression as winnings you can apply regression and play with half size the money.
Then you can not lose it all back to the casino.

[psimoes]

Thanks for the test, Ego. Yes, we must think for ourselves when the time comes.

I picked the bad run from the last session and compared three different progressions.

The profits of the original are higher when the winnings are steady, but it's less safe than the other two.


Original Prog        D'Alembert      Oscar's Grind   
                        
L   5   -5      5   -5      5   -5
L   10   -15      10   -15      5   -10
L   15   -30      15   -30      5   -15
W   10   -20      20   -10      5   -10
W   10   -10      10   0      10   0
W   10   0      5   5      5   5
L   10   -10      5   0      5   0
L   20   -30      10   -10      5   -5
L   30   -60      15   -25      5   -10
W   15   -45      20   -5      5   -5
L   15   -60      5   -10      10   -15
L   30   -90      10   -15      10   -25
L   45   -135      15   -30      10   -35
L   20   -155      20   -50      10   -45
L   40   -195      25   -75      10   -55
L   60   -255      30   -105      10   -65
L   10   -265      35   -140      10   -75
L   20   -285      40   -180      10   -85
W   30   -255      45   -135      10   -75
W   10   -245      40   -95      15   -60
W   10   -235      35   -60      20   -40
W   10   -225      30   -30      25   -15
L   10   -235      25   -55      15   -30
L   20   -255      30   -85      15   -45
L   30   -285      35   -120      15   -60
W   20   -265      40   -80      15   -45
L   20   -285      35   -115      20   -25
W   40   -225      40   -75      20   -5
W   20   -205      35   -40      5   0
L   20   -225      30   -70      5   -5
L   40   -265      35   -105      5   -10
W   60   -205      40   -75      5   -5
W   20   -185      35   -40      5   0
L   20   -205      30   -70      5   -5
L   40   -245      35   -105      5   -10
L   60   -305      40   -145      5   -15
W   30   -275      45   -100      5   -10
L   30   -305      40   -140      10   -20
L   60   -365      45   -185      10   -30
W   90   -275      50   -135      10   -20
L   30   -305      45   -180      15   -35
L   60   -395      50   -230      15   -50
W   90   -275      55   -175      15   -35
L   30   -305      50   -225      20   -55
L   60   -395      55   -280      20   -75
W   90   -275      60   -220      20   -55
W   30   -245      55   -265      25   -30
L   30   -275      50   -215      30   -60
W   60   -215      55   -160      30   -30
L   30   -245      50   -210      30   -60
W   60   -185      55   -155      30   -30
L   30   -215      50   -205      30   -60
W   60   -155      55   -150      30   -30
W   30   -125      50   -100      30   0
L   30   -155      45   -145      5   -5
W   60   -95      50   -95      5   0
W   30   -65      45   -50      5   5
L   30   -95      40   -90      5   0
W   60   -35      45   -45      5   5
W   30   -5      40   -5      5   10
W   30   25      5   0      5   15
W   5   30      5   5      5   20
L   5   25      5   0      5   15
L   10   15      10   -10      5   10
W   15   30      15   5      5   15
W   5   35      5   10      5   20
L   5   30      5   5      5   15
L   10   20      10   -5      5   10
L   15   5      15   -20      5   5
W   10   15      20   0      5   10
W   10   25      5   5      10   20
L   10   15      5   0      5   15
W   20   35      10   10      5   20
W   5   40      5   15      5   25
L   5   35      5   10      5   20
W   10   45      10   20      5   25
L   5   40      5   15      5   20
W   10   50      10   25      5   25
W   5   55      5   30      5   30
W   5   60      5   35      5   35

[psimoes]

I have been testing the progression with my own bet selection and i have to say that the original progression you post are very powerfull.
When i was up 40/50 units the progression bust - but the method did not tank - because i did not use the progression at this stage.

I come to a conclusion, when you are up you can only play with winnings and not apply the progression as you hit a bad strike.
This will keep us in the game longer.

So i am saying that we are only at risk at beginning of the game.
At least that is the idea.

Other idea is when you reach half the amount of money of the progression as winnings you can apply regression and play with half size the money.
Then you can not lose it all back to the casino.

I keep thinking there may be some kind of flaw in my progression: each level is a marty and then there's a "linear escalade" from  level to level. So far it seems logical, but my concept of staying at the level until break even or a new high is where I think it fails, because it's expecting a cluster of Wins that are "due". Either we change the concept or we improve the bet selection.

[ego]

This does not change anything - but i like the perspective when you are at risk and when you are not at risk playing and to what kind of ratio.
Here is 29 sessions and aim to win +50 Euro each visit - during 4 days play you would be missing the first three bets and start using the progression into negative terrotorium/expectation.

+1
+0
+1
+0
+0
+1
+1
+1

+50 Euro

+0
+1
+1
+1
+1
+0 Negative session
+1

+50 Euro

+0 Negative session
+1
+1
+0
+1
+1
+0
+1

+50 Euro

+1
+0
+1
+1
+1
+1

+50 Euro

Hit and run does not change the flow of outcomes as your personal permeanenze is a long never ending session.
But it feels better then just playing no stop to have some kind of playing style.
So win or break even territorium and if to deep into progression accept a loss - that would be a nice idea.

[psimoes]

That's a good strategy. I recall Pelayo's son saying in an interview that they used to lose one day per every week. Since they had a winning edge and what counts is the overall balance, they got used to it and just took the loss.

[ego]

There is no flaw into this line of thinking with your method and it has been done before with test amazing test results ...
I think if you can win and break even and accept loses you might have winning method.

The Very Near Perfect System:
link:://:.rouletteforum.cc/index.php?topic=7709.msg70028#msg70028

[psimoes]

WOW lots of infinite progressions there LOL. I'll have to read that thread carefully later.

Thanks for the encouraging words!

Cheers.

[nottophammer]

P
nice idea, those numbers after 10th spin i play and 62 units up on the #2 19th spin, nice Jimmie B.
Now are we playing after the 12th spin for +1,then track another pattern of 12 and attack again

[psimoes]

Nottophammer, which numbers are you referring to, exactly?

There's a point in tracking for new 12 ECs, after a plus for example.

The original idea is that any run of 12 even chances will be unique for 5690 spins:

BBBBBBBBBBBB \___ these two different runs of 12 ECs are perfectly legitimate to appear (although nightmarish to bet on).
BBBBBRBBBBBB /

So we are betting the next 12 are different than the previous. As we bet spin by spin we must not expect to win all the time, otherwise the second run will be a mirror image of the first...

O E O E O E O E O E O E
E O E O E O E O E O E O

... and a third run will be identical to the first...

O E O E O E O E O E O E
E O E O E O E O E O E O
O E O E O E O E O E O E

... and so on. It's not going to happen. So a number of losses are expected:

Likewise, and because losses are expected thus we can bet the previous 12 ECs will repeat, we must not expect to win all the time, otherwise every next 12 spins will be identical to the previous...

H H H L H L L L H L L H
H H H L H L L L H L L H
H H H L H L L L H L L H

... which is not going to happen.

All because we're betting continuously: 13th spin according to 1st spin, 14th according to 2nd, 15th according to 3rd, etc, etc, until the end of the session.

Expecting losses to occur is being realistic, but at the same time it doesn't seem very wise; afterall what we want here is to win as much as we can, and that is begging for Random to behave in a pattern closely to the examples posted above. Which aren't going to happen!

So, despite every outcome being independent, I dare to think it would be advisable to retrack for a new set of 12 ECs before betting. Remember we reach a New High after a cluster of Wins almost all the time. Clusters after clusters will not gonna happen unless we give Random some space.

Just a rambling.

[psimoes]

Worst run today betting for the difference at Table 5. Ended at +45 after 130 spins. Highest +60, lowest -425!

So far the baddest runs happen by betting against the previous 12 spins. Betting for the repeats are a walk in the park by comparison. Curve fitting? It's going against the reasoning explained before:

By betting for the repeat we're ultimately expecting BBBBBBBBBBBB followed by BBBBBBBBBBBB followed by BBBBBBBBBBBB.

By betting for the difference we're ultimately expecting BBBBBBBBBBBB followed by RRRRRRRRRRRR followed by BBBBBBBBBBBB.

At least the latter example has some (good) variance, but tests results advise betting on the former. What the "#$%

Beginning to suspect when it comes to roulette, what seems absurd probably works!

[Noreilles]

Been trying this out 6 times in the last 2 days... so far, it sems to hold up, at least the way I play it: I start with playing REVERSE the color (of 12th number in history), when I reach a new high (or break even or get a win in any recovery bets) I switch to playing SAME color (as the 12th previous spin), when I reach a new high (or break even or get a win in any recovery bets) I then switch to even/odds (again, REVERSE then SAME), and finally switch again to high/low. If I get into recovery bets, I note when I was (red/black SAME for example) and after I get to at least even, I continue where I left off (so continuing my example, I just "finished" red/black same so I switch to even/odds REVERSE). I basically play to win once (or break even) with each of the 6 ways this can be played, and then I switch betting method completly.  Highest I went so far is recovery level 2 (3-6-9), bet 2 so I guess luck has been on my side; had one session end after 6 spins, one after 7 spins, and one went to the 1st recovery (2-4-6) level for 3 spins. I'm licking this as a "bankroll padder", and I especially like that you just walk (or log in my case) to any table and just start betting right away! That's my 2 cents!