This post by Scarface in another thread inspired me to do my own tests :
QuoteThere has to be a reason a strategy wins. Consider these 2 different approaches:
Example 1: player believes that numbers hit will tend to equal out in the short term. This player will base his entire strategy on this event happening most of the time. His strategy relies on cold numbers catching up to hot numbers, eventually there will be an even number of repeats.
Example 2: player believes that in less than 200 spins there will be an unequal distribution of numbers. He believes that some numbers can outpace other by a factor of more than 6 to 1 or even better. His whole strategy is based on this happening most of the time.
So, which example is better? If you run 100s of simulations of a 200 spin cycle you will see what random does. The odds of an equal number or repeats ever occurring within 200 spins is infinitely small. It won't even be remotely close. There will always be a wide gap between hottest and coldest number. Basic probability. A player CAN use probability to make better bet selection.
So I ran a simulation in which I saved the stats from 5000 sessions of 200 spins each. What I recorded was the
difference between the maximum number of hits and the minimum number of hits for any number. Here is a plot of the results :
(link:s://s8.postimg.cc/7pojfq3p1/gaps.png)
And here is the breakdown in numbers :
Frequency distribution for v1, obs 1-5000
number of bins = 14, mean = 9.678, sd = 1.60276
interval midpt frequency rel. cum.
< 5.9954 5.4954 1 0.02% 0.02%
5.9954 - 6.9954 6.4954 34 0.68% 0.70%
6.9954 - 7.9954 7.4954 316 6.32% 7.02% **
7.9954 - 8.9954 8.4954 800 16.00% 23.02% *****
8.9954 - 9.9954 9.4954 1298 25.96% 48.98% *********
9.9954 - 10.995 10.495 1183 23.66% 72.64% ********
10.995 - 11.995 11.495 719 14.38% 87.02% *****
11.995 - 12.995 12.495 411 8.22% 95.24% **
12.995 - 13.995 13.495 148 2.96% 98.20% *
13.995 - 14.995 14.495 67 1.34% 99.54%
14.995 - 15.995 15.495 17 0.34% 99.88%
15.995 - 16.995 16.495 4 0.08% 99.96%
16.995 - 17.995 17.495 1 0.02% 99.98%
>= 17.995 18.495 1 0.02% 100.00%
So the average gap between the max. number of hits and minimum is about 10. I also recorded
how many numbers hit above average in each 200 spin session. The average or expected number of hits is between 5 & 6 (200/37 = 5.41), so I counted "above average" as more than 6 hits in the 200 spins. Here is the summary for that data :
Summary statistics, using the observations 1 - 5000
for the variable 'v1' (5000 valid observations)
Mean 11.067
Median 11.000
Minimum 5.0000
Maximum 17.000
Standard deviation 1.7070
C.V. 0.15424
Skewness 0.0081092
Ex. kurtosis -0.11896
5% percentile 8.0000
95% percentile 14.000
Interquartile range 2.0000
Missing obs. 0
So on average there were 11 numbers which hit more than 6 times in a 200 spin session.
Dunno if this information is useful for anyone, but there it is.
Seems like this new fangled repeater method might have some merit gosh dang it!