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Reduce negative expectation - win or break even.
I read Victor's topic about win or break even and i agree.
The ultimate would be to combine that with a way to reduce the negative expectation as nothing is due to happen.
Even money and La Partage Rule.
I would never suggest any one play even money with out the rule losing only half the bet on even money position if zero strike.
That reduce the house edge from 2,7 to 1.35%.
Reducing what is due to happen.
I discovered one way using equilibrium to get a high and steady strike ratio.
But even so - so does it not prevent us from getting long losing strikes as nothing is due.
The Bet Selection / Math & Probability
I regard repeaters to be a rare event using a dice and specially multiples of repeaters.
I notice that change is more present then the opposite with higher strike ratio.
The selection is based upon that - present change.
The selection is based upon formations and the principal of 1/3.
Once cycle has four formations.
1. XXX
2. XOX
3. XXO
4: OXX
The math and probability for one cycle.
1. 0.00
2. 0.25
3. 0,69
4. 1.27
If we would get one formation to repeat four times in a row we would have three formation missing.
That would be above 3.00 STD
So we play against repeaters and each time that a new formation will show.
The hovering stage & The correction stage.
The first stage is that you wait for three outcomes - one formation.
XXX
Now you wait for the next outcome.
XXX O
Now you play that the new beginning of the formation will not repeat and become the same as the previous one.
You play until you hit one repeat - two loses.
XXX OXX
If you get a repeat you don't play and wait until you get a new formation.
That means that if you get one repeat it can repeat more then twice getting 123456 in a row.
This is the reducing the negative expectation as we all know we can get 20 in a row as noting is due to happen.
When we get two repeats and one new formation we attack again.
XXX OOO XXX OOO XOO Here you play against XOO.
This is the hovering stage playing to win.
A total of four bets or four loses.
This means that you got two sides to repeat twice each at least or more.
Now if you don't reach your win goal using the hovering stage you don't play to win.
Then you change to recovery and that is the correction stage.
That means you start to attack after you have a repeating window and start to attack when the new formation breaker show.
Here you play against multi window of repeaters - that each side that show will repeat at least twice.
Staking plan.
At hovering stage i would say that you set a stop-loss and a win goal.
Using the progression 1 1 1 2.
At correction stage i would say that you play to break even and start over.
Using the progression 1 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89
FEEL FREE TO CHANGE AND MODIFY STAKING PLAN WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS AS YOU FEEL LIKE.
Illustration of the hovering stage with today's file from random org.
2
1
2
1
2 L
2 W
1
1 W
2
1
2 W
2
2
2 W
1
1
2 W
2
2
2 W
2
1
1 L
2 W
1
1 L
1 W
2
1 W
2
2
2 W
1
2
1 W
2
2
1 L
1 W
2
1 L
2 W
2
2 W
1
1
1 L
1 W
1
2 W
1
2
2 W
1
1
2 W
1
1
2 L
2 W
2
2 W
1
1
2 W
2
2
2 W
1
2
1 W
2
1
1 W
1
1
1 L
2 W
1
2 W
1
2
1 L
2 L
1
1
2
1
2 W
1
2
1 L
1 W
1
2 L
2 L
2
2
1
2
1 W
1
1
1 W
1
2
2 L
2 L
1
2
1
1
2 L
1 L
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Play with casino money.
There exist one advantage playing with the casinos money and not your own money.
To do that you should only play High & Low even money position.
This is because if the minimum bet size is 2 Euro for straight up you can play three lines.
That would be a total of 30 Euro and covering the same position as High & Low with the same progression.
So if minimum is 10 Euro for even money position you play with lower stakes and can have a smaller win target.
Lets assume you use the progression 1 1 1 2 a total of 5 units or 50 Euro.
You only have a win target at 30 Euro playing the lines with lower amount of money.
Casino money.
Hi Ego , what do you think ....will make any difference
if use this *LW strategy* :
Start to bet only after one virtual W, when hit one L stop and wait one virtual W,
after that virtual W bet again next progression step.
Your Example but with that strategy:
2 virtual play
1
2
1
2 L virtual
2 W virtual
1
1 W real
2
1
2 W real
2
2
2 W real
1
1
2 W real
2
2
2 W real
2
1
1 L real , stop
2 W virtual
1
1 L real, stop
1 W virtual
2
1 W real
2
2
2 W real
1
2
1 W real
2
2
1 L real , stop
1 W virtual
2
1 L real, stop
2 W virtual
2
2 W real
1
1
1 L real , stop
1 W virtual
1
2 W real
1
2
2 W real
1
1
2 W real
1
1
2 L real , stop
2 W virtual
2
2 W real
1
1
2 W real
2
2
2 W real
1
2
1 W real
2
1
1 W real
1
1
1 L real, stop
2 W virtual
1
2 W real
1
2
1 L real, stop
2 L virtual
1
1
2
1
2 W virtual
1
2
1 L real ,stop
1 W virtual
1
2 L real,stop ( 3 real Ls in row here )
2 L virtual
2
2
1
2
1 W virtual
1
1
1 W real
1
2
2 L real, stop
2 L virtual
1
2
1
1
2 L virtual
1 L virtual
Enemy is LwLwLwLw.......real L and virtual W....... cheers
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Yes that would be your enemy and part of the present change you should aim at.
That means the enemy i present at hovering stage is two repeating formation at least twice each.
Second enemy at correction stage would be many formations repeating at least twice and the STD grow stronger for each time.
The hole idea is to hovering at hovering stage almost flat betting and end up with 30 Euro and start to play with casino money and go home.
And at rare times break even using second stage.
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The personal permanence.
Past result does not matter but present change does.
You can walk up to any table and pick the first three outcomes and start from that position.
When you begin you stay until you solve your situation - win or break even.
Each day is a new day.
Each new table is a new table.
Each new distribution/permanence is a new distribution/permanence ...
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Note:
Lets say you win 30 Euro and play with casino money.
Then you can skip hovering stage and play correction stage with casino money - just as safety net to reserve you money.
Today's result.
Random org 2012 08 21
+ 30 Euro
+ 18 Euro
Total + 48 Euro.
Two sessions.
Won hovering stage and won playing with casino money.
LW-Registry:
Playing hovering stage one session.
2
1
2
1
2 L 1 -1
2 W 1 +0
1
1 W 1 +1
2
1
2 W 1 +2
2
2
2 W 1 +3
1
End of session 1 +30 Euro
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Playing correction stage with casino money.
1
2
2
2
2 W
2
1
1 L
2 W
1
1 L
1 W
2
1 W
2
2
2 W
1
2
1 W
2
2
1 L
1 W
2
1 L
2 W
2
2 W
1
1
1 L
1 W
1
2 W
1
2
2 W
1
1
2 W
1
1
2 L
2 W
2
2 W
1
1
2 W
2
2
2 W
1
2
1 L
2 W
1
1 W
1
1
1 L
2 W
1
2 W
1
2
1 L
2 L
1
1
2
1
2 W 0,6 +0,6
1
2
1 L
1 W
1
2 L
2 L
2
2
1
2
1 W 0,6 +1,20
1
1
1 W
1
2
2 L
2 L
1
2
1
1
2 L 0,6 +0,6
1 L 0,6 +0,0
1
2
2
2
1 L 0,6 -0,6
1 L 0,6 -1,20
2
1
2
1
1 W 0,6 -0,6
1
2
1 W
2
2
1 L
1 W
1
2 L
1 W
1
1 W
2
1
1 L
1 W
1
1 L
2 W
1
1 L
1 W
1
2 W
1
2
1 L
1 W
1
1 W
2
2
2 L
2 W
2
2 L
2 L
2
2
1
2
1 W 0,6 +0,0
2
1
2 L
1 L
1
2
1
2
1
1
2
1 L O,6 -0,6
2 W 0,6 +0,0
2
2 W
2
2
1 W
1
1
2 L
1 W
2
1 L
2 L
2
2
2
2
1 W 0,6 +0,6
1
1
1 W
1
1
1 L
2 W
2
1 W
2
1
1 W
2
1
1 L
1 W
1
1 L
2 W
2
2 L
2 W
2
1 W
2
1
1 W
2
1
1 L
1 W
2
1 W
2
1
1 W
2
2
2 L
2 W
2
1 W
1
1
1 W
2
2
2 L
2 W
2
1 W
2
1
2 L
2 W
1
1 W
2
1
2 W
1
2
1 L
1 W
1
2 L
2 L
2
2
1
2
1 W 0,6 +1,20
2
2
1 L
2 L
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
1 W 0,6 +1.80
2
End session 2 +18 Euro casino money.
Next session tomorrow will also be with casino money playing correction stage.
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Today's results.
Random org 2012 08 22
+18 Euro
Playing with the casinos money using the correction stage.
TOTALS
Random org 2012 08 21
+30
Playing the hovering stage one session.
+18
Playing with the casinos money using the correction stage.
Random org 2012 08 22
+18
Playing with the casinos money using the correction stage.
Net gain + 66 Euro
10 Euro Units = 6.6
File:
1
1
2
1
2 W
2
1
2 L
2 L
1
1
2
1
2 W 0,6 +0,6
1
2
1 L
2 L
1
1
1
2
1 W 0,6 +1,20
2
1
2 L
1 L
1
1
1
1
2 W 0,6 +1,80
2
Well when i create a LW-Registry with yesterdays file from random org i find the result being pretty tight - even if i know nothing is due so is the attempt to ride out a hovering state of loses and winnings.
I got a PM from some one who had great success using this method - my self have not test it so much.
W LW W LW W W W W W W LL W LW W W LW LW LL W LL LW LW W LW LL LW W LL LW W LL LW LW LL W LL LW LL W W LL W LW W LW LW W W W W LL LW W W LW LL W LL LW W W W LL LL
I test using a double loss as trigger and get even tighter LW-Registry - maybe that should be the hovering state that end with two loses.
W W L W L W L W L W W L W W W L W W L W L L
Then i have to adjust correction state to become more solid