This is an idea for a bet selection which occurred to me while coding the runs test program (still doing it, but it'll be uploaded in the math section soon). The selection attempts to improve the odds on a bet by expressing the sequence of spins for that bet in terms of an even chance. It's a little tricky to explain, but you first have to notice that selection of TWO groups from a bet higher than even, is itself even. This just means that say, doz1 is just as likely to hit as doz2, or street 3 is just as likely to hit as street 10, so considered in isolation from the remainder of the dozs or streets, each pair constitutes an EC bet.
Obviously though, any pair of this kind isn't a true EC bet because the pair isn't exhaustive (ie; it doesn't make up the entire set of numbers on the table - excluding zero - that say red/black does).
So the answer is to find the total number of pairs which can be extracted from the total number of possible bets. For example, to "Evenize" the dozens, note that there are 3 ways in which 2 dozens can be taken from the 3 possible:
D1 D2
D1 D3
D2 D3
Each of these 3 pairs can be regarded as a separate EC bet. To track the spins in terms of these evenized dozens, just create a separate column for each pair, and mark under the appropriate columns as the spins come in. Let's say the first few numbers are -
10
13
35
30
4
26
8
21
28
29
31
32
First number is 10, so put an X under D1 in the 1st and 2nd -
D1 D2 D1 D3 D2 D3
x x
the second number is a 13, so mark an x under the 1st and 3rd -
D1 D2 D1 D3 D2 D3
x x x
x
I think you get the idea.
So you have, in effect, a separate "marquee" for each pair, and each Doz is used twice in the 3 pairs. So what's the point of doing this? Well, each marquee shows an EC bet, so you can use everything you know pertaining to the character and distribution of ECs in order to make your selections, except that the odds on a Doz are higher! Now of course this doesn't mean that you have magically transformed an EC into a bet which pays 2:1, but it does mean that by comparing the 3 marquees and looking at patterns, streaks etc, you can make more informed choices as to which Doz to bet on next. This probably sounds a bit vague, but I suggest you give it a try and I'll post a longer example later.
Very interesting, Bayes. Thanks for sharing.
This is also one of my favourite betting systems. I use to track it with traditional excel like this:
[attach=1]
Awaiting further instructions.
Cheers,
-bd
Hi BD,
Well, I don't have any further instructions, this isn't really a system, only an idea which needs to be fleshed out. The basic idea is to look at each of the marquees for opportunities (whatever an "opportunity" means to you) and then zero in on the dozen pairs. If the indicated bet is favoured by BOTH dozens in the pair, make the bet, if not, don't. Here's a simple example:
[attachimg=1]
Look at the d2 columns. Suppose one of your bets was for a break after 4 chops in a row (ie: bet that the chops won't continue). dozen 2 in both marquees satisfies this criteria, therefore we have a bet on d2.
There are lots of possibilities to develop the idea. You could take a higher odds bet like double streets, in which case there would 15 possible EC bets:
{ds1,ds2} {ds1,ds3} {ds1,ds4} {ds1,ds5} {ds1,ds6} {ds2,ds3} {ds2,ds4} {ds2,ds5} {ds2,ds6} {ds3,ds4} {ds3,ds5} {ds3,ds6} {ds4,ds5} {ds4,ds6} {ds5,ds6}
Obviously, you'd need a software or spreadsheet tracker for this. Or you could combine same odds bets which have some overlapping numbers, such as dozens AND columns, in which case there might be a good way of using the marquees to bet on the intersections.
this is a nice idea bayes and it is based on deviations like my concept.
i had a bigger hope for those kind of systems but it turned out that with any way that i was trying to bet(rules for betting)the advantage/accurasy of the bets wasn t the expected...
let s hope ur concept will have better accuracy, although maths say that there is no difference between the events...meaning that applying a correction of deviation concept on the ecs will have the same success as on the 2:1 bets.
i guess this no advantage is happening because every spin is independent.
Thanks, MOP.
You're right that there's no mathematical advantage. Of course, you can't really get 2:1 odds on an EC, for example if you see a long streak in one of the columns and think it will end soon, the only way to get a profit is to bet on BOTH of the other dozens, but then that means a more expensive progression. However it seems to work quite well betting on one dozen, as long as the dozen has a deviation in both columns.
If you track all 15 marquees for the double streets, the odds increase to 5:1, but then it will be harder to pick the correct one using the other data. ;D
Thanks Bayes. I love being exposed to new ways of looking at the information the wheel is spitting out at us.
Perception can make all the difference in the world.
It may take a while to start coming up with some novel ways of using the info, but I'm sure it will happen.
Look at the plethora of methods that came about by organizing our data into matrices. :thumbsup:
Interesting concept Bayes. Im gonna give this some thought. Thank you