I saw a question you asked about why RNG's play
differently than actuals. RNG's tend to produce
unreliable results. You'll be playing along and its
just fine, and the RNG will veer off into 30 spins
of nonsense before getting back on track again.
Actuals aren't like that. Once in awhile you'll hit
patches that are confusing, but they don't last long.
You can usually figure out whats happening. RNG's
are just too sporadic for any real play, who has time
to sit around and wait for them to straighten out.
RNG's are pseudo random, fake random, and thats pretty
useless, unless you're a casino tring to make money.
The math guys always say its how it comes out in the
long run that counts, and RNG and actuals are identical
in the long run. The truth is, its how they come out spin
to spin that counts, if you're trying to win. You need reliability
in the short term, where the bets are placed.
Some casinos may use pseudo random, this can nobody checking against true random see any different way they comes. With inside information possible.
All casinos do not us random from a pseudo random generator, they use true random.
The numbers are often delivered from outside source.
It is easy to put 1000000 bets on an online casino in a year, on a live it will take far more time, at an casino you will see more strange movement just because the amount of spins.
I saw 24 reds a few days ago, first time, but for sure after a couple of millions spins.
The largest number of bets I have done and recorded in a day is 12300.
Player using bots, may put far more bets than I have done.
How ever the numbers are generated it is random if they are unpredictable, and they are, you can never know thats coming next spins.
Quote from: spike on Sep 26, 07:02 PM 2012
I saw a question you asked about why RNG's play
differently than actuals. RNG's tend to produce
unreliable results. You'll be playing along and its
just fine, and the RNG will veer off into 30 spins
of nonsense before getting back on track again.
Actuals aren't like that. Once in awhile you'll hit
patches that are confusing, but they don't last long.
You can usually figure out what's happening. RNG's
are just too sporadic for any real play, who has time
to sit around and wait for them to straighten out.
RNG's are pseudo random, fake random, and that's pretty
useless, unless you're a casino tring to make money.
The math guys always say its how it comes out in the
long run that counts, and RNG and actuals are identical
in the long run. The truth is, its how they come out spin
to spin that counts, if you're trying to win. You need reliability
in the short term, where the bets are placed.
Spike is absolutely right about the short term relevance of spins, and everyone should take heed, but he is referring to “his†way of deciphering the random flow, and in the short term. For mainstream system players the game is quite different, so for the bulk of us, dispite the short term focus, there is no discernable difference between the types of random outcomes delivered from rng or actuals.
Apart from guessing on the EC’s I don’t know exactly what spike does, but I do guess on the EC’s a bit too, and I can’t see any significant difference between the random types, especially when you consider each next bet in the short term is basically 50/50, win or lose, eat or be eaten, live or die, sink or swim, triumph or tragedy, prevail or perish... spin by spin.
Quote from: spike on Sep 26, 07:02 PM 2012
I saw a question you asked about why RNG's play
differently than actuals. RNG's tend to produce
unreliable results. You'll be playing along and its
just fine, and the RNG will veer off into 30 spins
of nonsense before getting back on track again.
Actuals aren't like that. Once in awhile you'll hit
patches that are confusing, but they don't last long.
You can usually figure out what's happening. RNG's
are just too sporadic for any real play, who has time
to sit around and wait for them to straighten out.
RNG's are pseudo random, fake random, and that's pretty
useless, unless you're a casino tring to make money.
The math guys always say its how it comes out in the
long run that counts, and RNG and actuals are identical
in the long run. The truth is, its how they come out spin
to spin that counts, if you're trying to win. You need reliability
in the short term, where the bets are placed.
[/quote
Something I completely agree with.
What's so bad about the odd 30 spins of nonsense?
Quote from: Skakus on Sep 27, 01:32 AM 2012
Spike is absolutely right about the short term relevance of spins, and everyone should take heed, but he is referring to “his†way of deciphering the random flow, and in the short term. For mainstream system players the game is quite different, so for the bulk of us, dispite the short term focus, there is no discernable difference between the types of random outcomes delivered from rng or actuals.
hmm... maybe.
But however you decipher the random flow, whatever filter you use, it doesn't make any difference to the stats - either short term or long term. Suppose that you're right and there really is a difference between short term and long term. Let's say for the sake of argument that "short term" is the last 30 spins. Now no matter how you interpret those spins, no matter what "filter" you pass them through, you're going to get the same basic distribution of wins and losses.
You can divide up the spins into short term samples and test separately, but the binomial distribution will tell you that in 30 spins, the chance of at least X wins is a certain %, exactly Y losses is another %, at most Z losses is another %, and so on.
If you combine the short term samples you're going to get the long term results. I don't deny that it might seem as though it's POSSIBLE for the short term results to add up to the "predicted" long term results and yet not be what's predicted in the short term. For example, suppose that in the last 30 spins there are exactly 15 reds and 15 blacks, and that the pattern was R,B,R,B,R,B,R ie; alternately red and black. Now suppose that in the next 30 spins the pattern was RR,BB,RR,BB and so on up to 30 spins, and in the next 30 spins the pattern is RRR,BBB,RRR,BBB... and so on. Now, in the "long term" you would expect the numbers of reds and blacks to be equal, and thereby give the expected long term results. But in the short term, results are NOT what's expected because spins appear to be not independent.
So there you have it: it seems that you CAN have non-random results in the short term but random in the long term. The trouble with this is that the long term stats have only been measured with respect to red vs black, but there are many other attributes that make random numbers random, and those sequences of short term spins, when pooled into one large sample (in the order they were generated), would fail virtually all tests which measure randomness.
But in fact, we never do see RNG spins fail the randomness tests. If they did, online casinos wouldn't use them; it's not in their interest for the RNG to generate non-random spins.
It's all so vague. Spike, if I knew what you meant by "different" (in regards to RNG vs actuals), then we would have something to work with. We don't even have a definition of what "short term" is.
I seem to remember you saying that random.org spins were no different than actuals for the way you play?
to me this is a very simple one & I agree with Spike.
AS the numbers are created in two different manners (a physical wheel & a computer chip) I think it's fair to assume the numbers will be different as well.
Imagine you have eggs on toast poached & scrambled
Both are eggs on toast, but both taste differently :thumbsup:
O0
ddarko,
It's not as simple as that. The essential thing for a random number generator is that each number has an equal chance of hitting (and that numbers are independent), and a roulette wheel is just one way of ensuring that.
And why don't the statistical tests show any difference if there is a difference? These tests are far more sensitive than you can measure just by looking at the spins.
Quote from: Bayes on Sep 27, 01:20 PM 2012
ddarko,
It's not as simple as that. The essential thing for a random number generator is that each number has an equal chance of hitting (and that numbers are independent), and a roulette wheel is just one way of ensuring that.
And why don't the statistical tests show any difference if there is a difference? These tests are far more sensitive than you can measure just by looking at the spins.
There was a time when I would have agreed that there was a major difference between a live roulette wheel and an RNG. I am no longer in that way of thinking. This is thanks to Bayes taking the time to set up an RNG. And now I am playing a real money RNG at BV for the last 3 weeks or so. I can see absoulutely no difference in the breakdown of results to those I attain when I play live.
Unless the people who run BV. Suddenly decide they are tired of me winning say a year from now. I can see no reason why this should change. I am winning on their real play RNG just as I can on there Fun mode RNG. Or on Bayes RNG. Or on Ladbrokes Fun mode RNG.
I have no doubt there may be some dodgy sites out there running RNG software. But at least at present BV isnt one of them. I think it comes down more to the method being used and the person using it. And using the Hit and Run application to get in and out without being too greedy.
Quote from: Bayes on Sep 27, 01:20 PM 2012
ddarko,
It's not as simple as that. The essential thing for a random number generator is that each number has an equal chance of hitting (and that numbers are independent), and a roulette wheel is just one way of ensuring that.
And why don't the statistical tests show any difference if there is a difference? These tests are far more sensitive than you can measure just by looking at the spins.
Hi there Bayes ;)
To me it IS that simple, to be honest it doesn't matter to me, live wheel is the only medium I play roulette on.
thanks for the reply :thumbsup:
O0
Quote from: ddarko on Sep 27, 01:46 PM 2012
Hi there Bayes ;)
To me it IS that simple, to be honest it doesn't matter to me, live wheel is the only medium I play roulette on.
thanks for the reply :thumbsup:
O0
I only used to play on live wheels for over 17 years. Now I see some serious potential on CERTAIN RNGS. To make a faster turnover with ideas that aren't really workable on a live wheel. BUT, have random beaten hands down. I would like you to direct us to the source of your dis-contentment Ddarko. Because I have had bad experiences with certain RNGs. But I now realize they are not all cheating. I have beaten 4 different RNGs now. I am gearing up to put five against the notorious Ladbrokes real money RNG. It will tell me once and for all if they cheat or not.
Well for me it speaks volumes when a Casino (Wankerhill) stop you usin their Live Wheel coz ure winning too much but say you can play their RNG ok
To me that says it all ! IF there was no difference wud they not ban you from both ??
And I speak from MY experience because the above happened to ME !
Quote from: Twisteruk on Sep 27, 02:18 PM 2012
Well for me it speaks volumes when a Casino (Wankerhill) stop you using their Live Wheel because your winning too much but say you can play their RNG ok
To me that says it all ! IF there was no difference would they not ban you from both ??
And I speak from MY experience because the above happened to ME !
WH are really in the same boat as Ladbrokes Twister. They are using Playtech I think. Bet365 too. If its fair I will beat it. If its not, well you know the story.
Quote from: Twisteruk on Sep 27, 02:18 PM 2012
Well for me it speaks volumes when a Casino (Wankerhill) stop you using their Live Wheel because your winning too much but say you can play their RNG ok
To me that says it all ! IF there was no difference would they not ban you from both ??
Trying too hard to make a "round peg fit a square hole".
Just because they don't know the obvious, as do the majority of the well-established landed casinos, doesn't make it otherwise.
Quote from: Twisteruk on Sep 27, 02:18 PM 2012
Well for me it speaks volumes when a Casino (Wankerhill) stop you using their Live Wheel because your winning too much but say you can play their RNG ok
To me that says it all ! IF there was no difference would they not ban you from both ??
And I speak from MY experience because the above happened to ME !
I couldn't agree with you more Twister :thumbsup:
Also at quite a few online casino's the max on a number for a live wheel is £50
but
£250 on a number for RNG ??
Why on earth is that ??
O0
Quote from: ddarko on Sep 27, 02:39 PM 2012
I couldn't agree with you more Twister :thumbsup:
Also at quite a few online casino's the max on a number for a live wheel is £50
but
£250 on a number for RNG ??
Why on earth is that ??
O0
You know the answer :thumbsup:
Quote from: Twisteruk on Sep 27, 02:46 PM 2012
You know the answer :thumbsup:
I am not so sure guys. I will know a year from now. At the moment theres no difference at BV to Live. But I am playing small. If they are going to cheat it will be when pennies become Euros we shall see.
Quote from: Skakus on Sep 27, 03:22 AM 2012
What's so bad about the odd 30 spins of nonsense?
Because its unplayable. Its hard to put into words the
difference between RNG and real spins. Its like they
both reach their goal, the long term, in equal condition.
But they took different routes getting there. One is
probably not worse than the other, but if you divised your
method using actuals, it might not work as well on an
RNG. So the reverse is probably true also. To say they're
the same in the short term, on a bet to bet basis, doesn't
seem to prove out, to me anyway. The only way I have of
measuring it is my method of play, thats all anybody has.
If it works far better on one than it does the other, there's
obviously a difference in the two. And yes, the results from
the atmospheric noise that random.org gets its samples
from, plays just like a real wheel does.
QuoteIF there was no difference would they not ban you from both ??
Quote£250 on a number for RNG ??
Why on earth is that ??
Because casino owners are led to believe they WILL attain +2.7% profit no matter what at the end of each cycle/month/year/day whatever from an RNG, they probably do too, they still believe there are advantage players that's why they ban live wheel winners.
Quote from: superman on Sep 27, 04:48 PM 2012
Because casino owners are led to believe they WILL attain +2.7% profit no matter what at the end of each cycle/month/year/day whatever from an RNG, they probably do too, they still believe there are advantage players that's why they ban live wheel winners.
Correct....that's why they burn cards on blackjack. They have to have perspex card shoes and (less pretty) women coming round shuffling cards and stacking the see-through shoes so you can't say the CSM is bent. Transparancy is trust....literally...transparant shoe.
But they burn an amount of cards based on the first card...7 spades, burn 7 cards. Burn a card every hand that you don't see.... and only use half the shoe ( a white card is slid around half way)
All that effort to stop card counting but retain trust with a manual card shoe.
So what do they do with a live roulette wheel to stop advantage play?
You can barely bet after tha ball has left. many casinos make you confirm the bet, which wastes time and the dealer changes spins from very slow to fast regularly, so there is no dealer signature.
They must believe if you are winning on a live wheel....you must be doing some kind of visual ballistics/dealer sig. of some kind because they know 100% (and that's why the bosses all drive Bentleys) that roulette will pay them 2.7%
Turner
********I couldn't agree with you more Twister (link:://rouletteforum.cc/Smileys/default/thumbsup.gif)
Also at quite a few online casino's the max on a number for a live wheel is £50
but
£250 on a number for RNG ??
Why on earth is that ??********
By Jove, the man made a good point!!
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Sep 27, 09:11 PM 2012
********I couldn't agree with you more Twister (link:://rouletteforum.cc/Smileys/default/thumbsup.gif)
Also at quite a few online casino's the max on a number for a live wheel is £50
but
£250 on a number for RNG ??
Why on earth is that ??********
By Jove, the man made a good point!!
----------------
william hill, knowing for banning players from live wheels has the same limits for both.....so this can't be it....
vundarosa
Quote from: Twisteruk on Sep 27, 02:18 PM 2012
Well for me it speaks volumes when a Casino (Wankerhill) stop you using their Live Wheel because your winning too much but say you can play their RNG ok
To me that says it all ! IF there was no difference would they not ban you from both ??
And I speak from MY experience because the above happened to ME !
--------------------
like others have said, no dealer signature, vb or adv play in a rng....
<hint> wh must have realised their live dealers are easy to read.... 8)
vundarosa
Quote from: vundarosa on Sep 27, 09:49 PM 2012
----------------
william hill, knowing for banning players from live wheels has the same limits for both.....so this can't be it....
vundarosa
I never said it was Billy Hill did I ?
Believe me or don't it makes no odds to me.
O0
Quote from: ddarko on Sep 27, 10:06 PM 2012
I never said it was Billy Hill did I ?
Believe me or don't it makes no odds to me.
O0
---------------
yes you didn't....but you said what you said while in agreement with Twister, so it was in that sence i understood what you said....my point is that the WH, one notorious for banning players from live wheels doesn't have different limits for rng & live and this doesn't mean their rng is fair either......to me this big difference in table limits (if it even exists the way you say it) seems to be a way for the casino to protect itself from VB players....
vundarosa
Quote from: vundarosa on Sep 28, 01:20 AM 2012
to me this big difference in table limits (if it even exists the way you say it) seems to be a way for the casino to protect itself from VB players....
Check for yourself >:( >:( >:( >:( >:(
O0
Quote from: vundarosa on Sep 27, 09:55 PM 2012
--------------------
like others have said, no dealer signature, vb or adv play in a rng....
<hint> wh must have realised their live dealers are easy to read.... 8)
vundarosa
Yes, ure most likely correct
Quote from: spike on Sep 26, 07:02 PM 2012
I saw a question you asked about why RNG's play
differently than actuals. RNG's tend to produce
unreliable results. You'll be playing along and its
just fine, and the RNG will veer off into 30 spins
of nonsense before getting back on track again.
Actuals aren't like that. Once in awhile you'll hit
patches that are confusing, but they don't last long.
You can usually figure out whats happening. RNG's
are just too sporadic for any real play, who has time
to sit around and wait for them to straighten out.
RNG's are pseudo random, fake random, and thats pretty
useless, unless you're a casino tring to make money.
The math guys always say its how it comes out in the
long run that counts, and RNG and actuals are identical
in the long run. The truth is, its how they come out spin
to spin that counts, if you're trying to win. You need reliability
in the short term, where the bets are placed.
Quote from: spike on Sep 27, 03:20 PM 2012
Because its unplayable. Its hard to put into words the
difference between RNG and real spins. Its like they
both reach their goal, the long term, in equal condition.
But they took different routes getting there. One is
probably not worse than the other, but if you divised your
method using actuals, it might not work as well on an
RNG. So the reverse is probably true also. To say they're
the same in the short term, on a bet to bet basis, doesn't
seem to prove out, to me anyway. The only way I have of
measuring it is my method of play, thats all anybody has.
If it works far better on one than it does the other, there's
obviously a difference in the two. And yes, the results from
the atmospheric noise that random.org gets its samples
from, plays just like a real wheel does.
RNG and actuals are identical in the long run. Totally agree.
As you all know i play rng 99% of the time. Over the years i've collected the days plays in groups of 60 spins. I've built an average for the bookies that still runs the same today, just like Jackpot Joys average is building.
I even use the bookies average on the odd occasion i go to b+m, the average works fine, Winkels average at 13,25,37 is spot on even in the bookies.
Unique in x spins works the same on Jackpot joy as it does in the bookies,average
Notto
What's your overall opinion of the roulette machines in bookies?
I have mentally dismissed them as being fixed but that's not from experience. I have never even seen one.
I would like to form a more positive view.
Turner
As far as i know theres 2 suppliers, Global draw and inspired gaming.
Now if you go in put the realwheel to the back of your mind. When you start theres 11 numbers showing from previous player, 10 on inspired gaming,they use to show last 15,but changed it to 10 for some reason, possibly you could look to see how many are unique.
If like you say you've never played on one, i'd cheap spin 6 d/s noting down the numbers to see how many non hit,hit in 30 spins. What i've seen is after 10 spins the next 30 give 15 point something numbers more than 15.5, so whether you round up to 16 or dismiss to 15 your choice, but me i use 15.
What you see on a live wheel you'll see here,a doz missing for 34spins, seen this on both, long blocks of one colour, like Tam just said columns miss for again 30 +plus spins, i've even seen granps block of 9 miss for 30+spins. I was in grosvenor casino Luton, using SAS's 1,4,7 totally blown apart,as does the bookies.
The best i can say is think of GUT, how the 0x's come,then how the 1x's and >1's behave because when you start theres 37 numbers due.
Jackpot Joy today just look airball spins 11-20 9 non hit, 9 in 10 spins, so to many the 1x's got to come, you'll see this on the bookies FOBT's.
Watch how you chip up singles go from a £1 to £2 instead of £1.20, outside go to £15 then up in £5's, getting you quicker to the maxbet of £100.00
If you collect the data your spins and record you'll see it's balanced at the end of the day.
Thanks notto. Very concise reply
Hi Turner
Todays 2 games in rng thread.
When going in decide what your going to do, me 10 spins,cheap spin 6d/s. Look at my 1st 10 spins to the 11 in the margin. So corals is 9/10 margin, my 1st10, 10/10, so think about unique, yes go for the 27 non hit win, 26 win, end to many 1x's now, look 4, 3rd doz on the bounce,so bet grassroots,lose,chip up lose, chip up win at 3-3 so parley the win, win meter(B/R) still in profit.
Now what i'm doing now is putting a win in every other box, so 10/10+15 in 30 spins = 25, you can see a tiny 25 in box 40.
Now i've just parlayed the 3 units and won on #28, look up 14th nonhit,so we've had 14 non hit and 2 repeats,so lets see if it repeats as the #'s in the margin are repeating, yes it repeats so now we bet for the 23 non hit to come £4.60 stake as said never start in the bookies with £1 units, we win.
Just my way of using Average, Winkels watch the trot, how the average of non hit,hit. All this info is in Jackpot joy doc.
Notto