Hey, for the HP Johnson progression (in money management)
I'll need a betting selection that doesn't have to win more than lose,
But that just doesn't have large losing streaks!
Any ideas? (The selection should be for R/B)
Maybe by betting uncommon patterns (While not looking to the spun numbers!)
like: RRRR BBBB RRRR BBBB
Would this have large losing streaks?
Because the only way that this pattern will have large losing streaks is when this happens:
BBBB RRRR BBBB RRRR BBBB (The exact opposite of the bet selection)
(I think that this is really uncommon so???)
Cheers, Jordsie.
QuoteAny ideas?
What have you tried so far?
I am not sure about that progression, but you could try this.
Clustering outcomes into patterns of two.
RB
RR
RR
BR
BB
RB
RR
BR
Then one complete cycle would be four events.
So you could bet against one side to show four times in a row.
But you don't have to start at the first level, you could wait and play at second level.
This mean when three loses chop you have one trigger to play opposite.
Lets assume you have RB as your first clustering pattern.
Then you following the left column and play against red.
You continue to play against the last colour that show in the left column clustering patterns into two.
When you have three loses you watch what formation the first clustering pattern has with that cycle.
RB
BR W
RR W
RB L
BB W
BB L
RR W
RB L
RB L
RR L
This is the end with three loses and as you can see RR is the first clustering pattern with that cycle.
Then you play against R in the right column.
So you play against 4xRR.
RR W
RB L W
RB L
RR L
Now lest assume one side would show for four times in a row, one complete cycel, then you would have three loses.
RR
RR L L
RR L L
RR L L
Then you would wait for the next clustering pattern by two and repeat the formula all over again.
Now if you can play four levels then you can start from the first level and gain some long strings of winnings.
That would be 12 step progression.
If you start from secound level that would be 9 step progression.
Jordsie. have you tried the HP method on double dozens? Bet selection bet on the dozen that won last plus the one next to it. If it was the middle one then bet that plus the one nearest to which number came up in the middle dozen.
Same thing, write down a string 2 2 2 2 2 2. bet the first and last number combined on EACH dozen, then cross off on wins, on losers distribute the losses as before but this time x2, so loss on the 1st go the string would now be 2 2 4 4 4 4.
Ego, I don't really understand what you are doing there :-[
What do you mean by clusters and columns,
I only see one column, can you explain it a bit more clear please?
Cheers.
Jordsie
First, what you are trying to do is reduce volatility. Good luck! He who does that will be wealthy!
Second, referring to your second post, you want to reduce volatility in your life time.
Sam
But can someone explain ego's bet selection?
'Cause it's not very clear to me.
Cheers, Jordsie.
Ego's writings are not understandable by the common man. I looked at it. I think the refers to columns as the left notations are one column and the right are another.
RR............The first R is in the right column; the second R is in the second column.
Anyway, this will not reduce volatility which is what you're wanting to do.
Sam
You see red bet black.
R
R L
B W
Now you have black bet red.
R
R L
B W
R W
Just at all time bet opposite to the last hit outcome until three loses.
R
R L
B W
R W
R L
R L
R L
Now you have four red in a row, next outcome is black and you put it next to the top red as one full cycle is four clustering patterns of two.
R
R
B
R B
R
R
R
Now you would play against black at the secound column, that means you would play against the clustering pattern RB to hit four times in a row.
RB
RB
RB
RB
But if the next outcome after three loses would been red, then it would look like this.
R
R
B
R R
R
R
R
Then you would play black and aginst that the clustering patterns of two reds, RR would hit four times in a row, one complete cycle.
There exist four clustering patterns of two.
1. RR
2. RB
3. BB
4. BR
Conlusion, you bet against the last hit colour until three loses, first level.
Then you wait for one outcome to see what kind of clustering pattern show for that cycel.
Then you bet against it as i show above.
There exist four complete cycels with eight outcomes with clustering patterns of two hittting four times in a row.
RR
RR
RR
RR
RB
RB
RB
RB
BB
BB
BB
BB
BR
BR
BR
BR
So if you use all four levels you have 12 attempts or a 12 step progression.
The negative expectation is for two cycles to hit four times in a row each.
If you use one trigger of three loses you have 9 attempts or a 9 step progression.
The negative expecation is the same as i mention above.
I still don't really get it sorry :-[
Why are you clustering the numbers in parts of 2?
And is:
RR
RR
RR
RR
6 reds in a row?
And is RBBRRRBB the same as:
RB
BR
RR
BB
When when is it a full cycle? It's all really vague to me.
Cheers, and thanks for all your help.
Well if you have a dice with four sides, then each side has a number and are uniq.
1 2 3 4
Now if you throw this dice you expect to see a new side show each time or at least most of the times.
Is the same if you have a regular dice with six sides.
1 2 3 4 5 6
Now if you throw this dice you expect to see a new side show each time or almost.
Now if the dice has four sides, then one cycle would be that each side show one time each during four trails with out any repeats, then we would say that the dice alternate, one complete cycel.
Now if the dice has six sides, then one cycle would be that each side show one time each during six trails with out any repeats, then we would say that the dice alternate, one complete cycel.
So if you have a dice with four sides and one side show four times in a row during four trails, then no other side show, then its a complete cycel.
So if you have a dice with six sides and one side show six times in a row during six trails, then no other side show, then its a complete cycel.
Now, I now what a cycle is (4 times same color in a row or RBRB, am I right?)
Now what does this mean?
RR
RR
RR
RR
RB
RB
RB
RB
BB
BB
BB
BB
BR
BR
BR
BR
And what/when do I have to bet after three losses, And do I have to spin without betting after 4 losses? :-[
I find it more easy to apply the same math and probability for even money bets as with a dice.
Then at least you have some degree of something to base your selection upon.
And to do that you have to clustering 1 in 2 into patterns.
We also have the same for sequential distribution using the Ecart/STD.
Where we use the law of series and divide the distribution into different opposite events based upon that.
I apologies, for me its clear as water and don't know how to describe it more clear then what i mention above.
If you try to PM Albertjonas, then he might help you to explain this.
He understand all my writings, easy as complex.
Cheers
Quote from: Jordsie669 on Dec 31, 11:32 AM 2012
Now, I now what a cycle is (4 times same color in a row or RBRB, am I right?)
Now what does this mean?
RR
RR
RR
RR
RB
RB
RB
RB
BB
BB
BB
BB
BR
BR
BR
BR
And what/when do I have to bet after three losses, And do I have to spin without betting after 4 losses? :-[
If you cluster outcomes in patterns of 2 you have four possible cases (each case, one side of the four sided dice)
RR
BB
RB
BR
And this is one cycle.
"
This is the number of spins per cycle you should use:
- Even chance: 2 spins
- Dozen/Column: 3 spins
- Double-street: 6 spins.
- Corner/quad: 9 spins.
- Street: 12 spins.
- Split: 18 spins.
- Single number: 36 spins."Hope this makes it more clear.
Cheers
Thanks for the help Albertojonas, you are great.
Happy new year to you and your family.
Cheers
Will try and post a session form today's randomization.
Random.org 100 spins 31/12/2012
b
R W
b W
R W
b W
b L
b L
R W
R L
b W
b L
b L
R W
b W
R W
b W
b L
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
b W
R W
b W
b L
b L
R W
R L
b W
R W
R L
R L
b W
R W
R L
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
b W
R W W
R L
R L
R L
b
b
b L
R W
R L
b W
b L
b L
R W
R L
R L
b W
b L
b L
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
b L
R W
R L
R L
b W
b L
R W
R L
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W W
b L
b L
b L
R
b
Quote from: albertojonas on Dec 31, 12:52 PM 2012
Will try and post a session form today's randomization.
Random.org 100 spins 31/12/2012
b
R W
b W
R W
b W
b L
b L
R W
R L
b W
b L
b L
R W
b W
R W
b W
b L
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
b W
R W
b W
b L
b L
R W
R L
b W
R W
R L
R L
b W
R W
R L
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W
R W
b W
R W b
R L b L
R L b L
R L R W
b
b
b
R
- - -
R
b W
b L
b L
R W
R L
R L
b W
b L
b L
R W
b W
R W
R L
b W
b L
R W
R L
R L
b W
b L
R W
R L
b W
R W
R L
b W
R W
b W R
b L b W
b L
b L
R
b
I correct the endings.
After three loses you have one colour of the same four times.
Then the fifth outcome show what kind of clustering pattern you will play against at secound level.
R
R L
R L
R L
Now if you get Black then it looks like this.
RB
R
R
R
Then we have RB clustering pattern and would play against black for three times.
Prevent RB to repeat four times in a row.
If we hade the following with red we would play black so we did prevent RR to come four times in a row.
RR
R
R
R
Just to put some light on a small error by Albertojonas.
Same with four blacks.
BR
B
B
B
or
BB
B
B
B
Here you can see the distribution during 300 trails from random org ...
2 1
2 1 L L
2 2 L W
2 1 L
1 2
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 1 L L
2 1 L L
2 2 L W
2 1
1 2 W
1 1 L W
1 2 L
1 1 L
1 2
1 2 L
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
1 2 L L
1 2 L L
1 1 L W
1 1
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 2 W
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 2 W
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 2 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 1 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
2 2 W
1 1 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 2 W
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 1 L
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 2 W
2 2 L
1 1 W
1 1 L
1 2 L
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 1 L
1 1 L
2 2 W
2 1 L W
2 1 L
2 1 L
2 2
2 1 L W
2 1 L
2 1 L
2 1
2 2 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 2 L
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 1 W
1 2 L
1 1 L
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 1 L
1 2 L
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
1 1 W
2 1 W
2 2 L
1 1 W
1 2 L W
1 2 L
1 1 L
1 2
I still don't understand any of it :P
a video would make it clear.
EDIT: I think i understand a bit now lemme investigate :P
I will try to explain again.
Now i give you a coin.
The coin have two sides.
Throw the coin high up in the air and tell we wait side shows, Head or Tail ?
- Tail show.
T
- Ok thanks, then i bet head will show for next time you flip the coin.
- No i got Tail again.
T
T loss
- Ok thanks, then i bet head again, that it will show for the next time you flip the coin.
- No i got Tail again.
T
T loss
T loss
- Ok thanks, then i bet head again, that it will show for the next time you flip the coin.
- No i got Tail again.
T
T loss
T loss
T loss
- Ok thanks, now i will wait and see what come next when you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Tail again.
T T
T
T
T
- Ok thanks, now i will bet Head for the next time you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Tail again.
T T
T T loss
T
T
- Ok thanks, now i will bet Head for the next time you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Tail again.
T T
T T loss
T T loss
T
- Ok thanks, now i will bet Head for the next time you flip your coin.
- Ok i got tail again.
T T
T T loss
T T loss
T T loss
- Ok thanks, now i will wait and see if you get Head or Tail when you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Head.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H
- Ok thanks, now i bet you will get Tail for the next time you flip the coin.
- Ok i got Head.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H
H loss
- Ok thanks, now i bet Tail again for the next time you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Head.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H
H loss
H loss
- Ok thanks, now i bet Tail again for the next time you flip the coin.
- Ok i got Head.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H
H loss
H loss
H loss
- Ok thanks, now i wait and will see if you get Head or Tail when you flip your coin for the next time.
- Ok i got Tail.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H T
H
H
H
- Ok thanks, now i bet Head for the next time you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Tail.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H T
H T loss
H
H
- Ok thanks, now i bet Head again for the next time you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Tail.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H T
H T loss
H T loss
H
- Ok thanks, i bet Head again for the next time you flip your coin.
- Ok i got Tail.
T T
T T
T T
T T
H T
H T loss
H T loss
H T loss
Ok thanks, i quit.
Now what happend.
This happend.
You got a dice with four sides showing one number out of four for four times.
Lets say the dice have the numbers 1 2 3 4.
Now number one show four time during four throws 1 1 1 1.
And the number two show four time during the next four throws 2 2 2 2.
That is pretty rare and based upon valid math and probability.
Okay thanks! But now theres only ONE more thing i don't get ;D
If you have this:
T T
T T
T T
T T
H (loss)
H (loss)
H (loss)
T (win)
H (win)
T (win)
H (win)
H (loss)
H (loss)
H (loss) (3rd consecutive loss)
Now should I do "THIS" OR "THIS"?
T T
T T
T T
T T
H T
H
H
T
H
T
H T
H
H
H
And what do you do when 0 comes out?
Thanks again and I think I almost got it!
People like you keep this forum alive!
Cheers, Jordsie.
PS: I wouldn't say "Ok thanks" after 8 losses :P
Each time you get four loses you lose three times in a row.
R
R L
R L
R L
or
B
B L
B L
B L
Then when this happens you wait for the next outcome to show with out betting or playing, you just observe.
Do you know why, i tell you why.
If you have ...
RB
R
R
R
And get black, then you have RB and would prevent to get that formation for four times in a row.
So you would bet Red.
But if you had ...
RR
R
R
R
Then you would have RR and play against that formation would repeat four times in a row.
So you would bet Black.
Think like this.
No matter if my betting end with three loses and i have a serie of four reds or four blacks.
I have to wait for one outcome to show me what kind of formation i should bet against for the next attack.
All experience players play as zero does not exist and accept the loss/drawdown.
So if zero show you continue to play the next outcome as it did not happen (repeat the same bet size)
I already understood that but after another 3 consecutive losses,
where should I continue the second column?
T T
T T
T T
T T
H T (HERE,)
H
H
T
H
T
H T (OR HERE?)
H
H
H
Your question is wrong.
If you don't understand the dice and the math and probability, clustering patterns and formations.
Then is not much more i can do.
You should follow this 300 trails and see the betting and clustering and understand it all.
2 1
2 1 L L
2 2 L W
2 1 L
1 2
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 1 L L
2 1 L L
2 2 L W
2 1
1 2 W
1 1 L W
1 2 L
1 1 L
1 2
1 2 L
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
1 2 L L
1 2 L L
1 1 L W
1 1
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 2 W
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 2 W
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 2 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 1 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
2 2 W
1 1 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 2 W
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 1 L
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 2 W
2 2 L
1 1 W
1 1 L
1 2 L
2 2 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 1 L
1 1 L
2 2 W
2 1 L W
2 1 L
2 1 L
2 2
2 1 L W
2 1 L
2 1 L
2 1
2 2 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 2 L
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 1 W
1 1 W
1 2 L
1 1 L
2 2 W
1 2 W
1 1 L
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 1 L
1 2 L
2 1 W
2 2 L
2 1 L
1 2 W
2 1 W
2 1 L
1 1 W
1 2 L
2 2 W
1 1 W
2 1 W
2 2 L
1 1 W
1 2 L W
1 2 L
1 1 L
1 2
soon 24 so happy new year, maybe i catch you all tomorrow 2013 ...
Cheers
Quote from: ego on Dec 31, 05:15 PM 2012
Your question is wrong.
If you don't understand the dice and the math and probability, clustering patterns and formations.
Then is not much more i can do.
You should follow this 300 trails and see the betting and clustering and understand it all.
But I do understand it :(
I get all your explanation from the head and tail!
You only didn't mentioned where you should start in the second column again after a second 3 consecutive losing streak.
Happy New Year anyways and i'll look trough your 300 trails if i get it.
I think I get it, is this right?
2
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 1 W
1 1 L L
1 2 L W
1 1 L W
2
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 1 W
1 1 L L
1 2 L W
1 L
1
2 W
1 W
1 L
That is right how i show it above.
Then you wait for a new outcome.
See my illustration again.
Quote from: ego on Dec 31, 06:17 PM 2012
2
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 1 W
1 1 L L
1 2 L W
1 L
1
2 W
1 W
1 L
That is right how i show it above.
Then you wait for a new outcome.
See my illustration again.
isn't that the same way I did it? And I think you missed a number I'll put a "X" Where you forgot it:
2
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 1 W
1 1 L L
1 2 L W
1 X L
EDIT: THIS POST IS OUTDATED!
I read the posts again, and I didn't knew that after 1 win in the second column, the session would end, but now i know! :P
Quote from: ego on Dec 31, 06:17 PM 2012
2
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 1 W
1 1 L L
1 2 L W
1 L
1
2 W
1 W
1 L
That is right how i show it above.
Then you wait for a new outcome.
See my illustration again.
Well, I studied your bet selection quoted above and I came to a conclusion:
All you're doing is:
Betting the opposite of the last color, and wait 1 spin after 4 consecutive losses and then bet the opposite of that last spin!!
So why do so much effort noting that down in weird clusters and columns???
Quote from: Jordsie669 on Dec 31, 07:04 PM 2012
Well, I studied your bet selection quoted above and I came to a conclusion:
All you're doing is:
Betting the opposite of the last color, and wait 1 spin after 4 consecutive losses and then bet the opposite of that last spin!!
So why do so much effort noting that down in weird clusters and columns???
Because ego is full of it and he don't know it, that is sad. :o
RANDOM.ORG 300 spins
01.01.13
[/code]2 1
2 L 2 W
2 L
2 L
1
2
1
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W 1
1 L 1 L
1 L 2 W
1 L
1
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W 1
1 L 2 W
1 L
1 L
2
2 L
1 W 2
1 L 1 W
1 L
1 L
2
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W 1
1 L 2 W
1 L
1 L
2 1
2 L 1 L
2 L 2 W
2 L
1
1 L
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W
2 W 1
2 L 1 L
2 L 2 W
2 L
1
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W 1
2 L 1 L
2 L 1 L
2 L 1 L
1
1 L
2 W 2
2 L 1 W
2 L
2 L
2 1
2 L 2 W
2 L
2 L
2
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W 1
2 L 2 W
2 L
2 L
2
1 W 2
1 L 1 W
1 L
1 L
1
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W 1
2 L 2 W
2 L
2 L
2
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
1 W 2
1 L 2 L
1 L 2 L
1 L 1 W
1
1 L
2 W 1
2 L 1 L
2 L 2 W
2 L
1
2 W
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
1 W
1 L
2 W 2
2 L 1 W
2 L
2 L
1
1 L
2 W
2 L 2
2 L 1 W
2 L
2 L
1
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
2 W 2
2 L 2 L
2 L 1 W
2 L
2
1 W
1 L
2 W 1
2 L 2 W
2 L
2 L
1
2 W
2 L
2 L
1 W
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
1 W
1 L
1 L
2 W
1 W
2 W
2 L
2 L
Euhm, ...
albertojonas we don't need anymore spins.
And we don't even need to cluster and stuff (read the posts above!!!)
Cheers, Jordsie.
Quote from: Jordsie669 on Dec 31, 07:04 PM 2012
Well, I studied your bet selection quoted above and I came to a conclusion:
All you're doing is:
Betting the opposite of the last color, and wait 1 spin after 4 consecutive losses and then bet the opposite of that last spin!!
So why do so much effort noting that down in weird clusters and columns???
Because you at the end don't know what cluster of formation you should bet against, if you don't put the next outcome next to the last string of loses.
And you can start from any level you like.
If i would state that you just play opposite at all times you would get a different betting behavior.
Its the tail or the last three loses that end you with a serie of five.
But if you don't clustering the formation you don't know how to play against the series of five as you don't know the clustering formation.
So the sequential betting is against four series of eight, twice.
12 or 9 attempts depending on what level you start from.
I think five is a good level to start from.
I read all your spins and all it does is:
Betting the opposite of the last color, and wait 1 spin after 4 consecutive losses and then bet the opposite of that last spin!!
Go trough your spins and do the following above, you'll see it's just all that!
And for what you said:
So the sequential betting is against four series of eight, twice.
You'll get the same effect using the following above.
Cheers, Jordsie.