I don't believe that there's a bet selection method that can overcome the house edge in the long run.
In other words, you will always lose more bets than you win.
Therefore, the only way to beat this game or any other game of chance is to be betting more on the wins than you were on the losses.
The more ammo you take to the war, the better your chances of survival.
I've come to the conclusion that in the long run you can't beat this game with small bets and a small bankroll.
You must have enough units to survive some very bad losing streaks.
I think 1000 units is the very minimum bankroll you need to realistically attack this game.
Michael, whom I wrote about recently, in my estimation is just having a lucky streak if he is in fact winning with a flatbet.
I think you should find a system, like Warrior's One four three Roulette system, play it with at least a thousand unit buy-in, with four 1,000 unit back-up banks and you should have a 99.9% chance of never going totally bust and with just a little luck, you should be able to walk out with 100 units on a very regular basis. Naturally, it will take a 10 wins to offset 1 loss, but your chances of doing that are better than trying to walk away with 10 units and a 100 unit buy-in.
I know that 5000 units is a hefty sum of money, but I truly think that's what you need to have a realistic chance. Beating roulette isn't a silly game. It's a serious undertaking and it should be approached as a business. Most businesses fail because they don't have enough start-up money.
If you don't want to invest what it takes to give yourself a fighting chance, then there are a hundred systems that you can play and have a chance to get lucky for a while and with a small investment, have some fun and frustration and, hopefully, no great harm done if you lose your fun money every now and then.
I know that some of you say that you are winning on a regular basis and I'm not going to say you're not. I'm just saying that from all my testing, I do the best when I attack a system with a 5,000 unit bank. Many of the more experienced players will back me up on this, Winkle, MrJ, F_LAT_INO, Fripper etc... etc...
I'm not saying that my mind can't be changed regarding this, I'm just saying that this is where I am at this point after years of examining the game from a lot of different angles.
I'm not seeking to get in a major debate regarding this. I'm just stating my position at this moment.
All disagreeing points of view are welcome.
:thumbsup:
GLC
Totally correct.
I would consider a minimum bankroll to be, 600 outside units, so if playing straight up numbers that would be 600*18= 10,800 units
Flatbetting only will only prolong your losing.
D
It depends on your expectations george. To me, the bigger the bankroll, the worse the day from hell is gonna be. I dont believe having a bigger hammer will knock the nails in better. When i miss the nail....which will happen...and hit my thumb...i want it to be a small panel pin hammer, not a 3lb mallet. I want to whince for 1 minute and suck my thumb. No plaster needed.
See....i factor in losing way above winning.
Quote from: Turner on Mar 28, 03:49 AM 2013
It depends on your expectations george. To me, the bigger the bankroll, the worse the day from hell is gonna be. I don't believe having a bigger hammer will knock the nails in better. When i miss the nail....which will happen...and hit my thumb...i want it to be a small panel pin hammer, not a 3lb mallet. I want to whince for 1 minute and suck my thumb. No plaster needed.
See....i factor in losing way above winning.
You missed the point mate. Having a big bankroll doesn't mean you risk it all in one session. It means if your a good player you should never lose all your bankroll and make the occasional withdrawal.
This applies to any form of gambling.
D
Quote from: DaDee on Mar 28, 05:15 AM 2013
You missed the point mate. Having a big bankroll doesn't mean you risk it all in one session. It means if your a good player you should never lose all your bankroll and make the occasional withdrawal.
This applies to any form of gambling.
D
I didnt miss the point. If you dont risk your big bank roll....then you wont need it....will you.
Quote from: Turner on Mar 28, 05:37 AM 2013
I didn't miss the point. If you don't risk your big bankroll....then you won't need it....will you.
Everyone has a losing day once in while, so you need to know when to stop and fight another day with more of your bankroll.
You point makes no since, you just basically said 'if you don't play at all then you won't need'
GLC, you are so incredibly wrong, and it is not my mere opinion. You can beat roulette, but only if you increase the accuracy of predictions.
Progression alone is certain death for your bankroll. Absolute fact. You are not covering losses. You are just making different bets of different sizes. I created :.genuinewinner.com/truth.html (link:://:.genuinewinner.com/truth.html) to help explain it.
Quote from: DaDee on Mar 28, 05:53 AM 2013
Everyone has a losing day once in while, so you need to know when to stop and fight another day with more of your bankroll.
You point makes no since, you just basically said 'if you don't play at all then you won't need'
What we are talking about here isnt big bankrolls....its how much you are willing to throw at the casino out of your pocket. Call it MM....call it a big bank roll...call it what you like. Dress up losing however you want to. If you expect roulette to be positive by something you are doing...you are misguided. Its a negative expectancy game
i wanted to disagree but i couldnt :xd: ... every test that i made i always end up making progression and required bigger bankroll. sure! increasing accuracy on bet selection is a factor but progression always saves the day :)
Bet selection is obviously the most important factor and I believe in the long run we can beat the wheel flat. However you find yourself treading water on a flat basis and then you get a hot streak that puts you ahead and then you of course have to properly time your exit....all for a few units or a seemingly insignificant win in the scheme of looking at this as a business. If it's all recreation it doesn't matter...anything in the plus is a great day.
With proper bankroll, a small negative progression with a stop-loss and then a positive progression (can be fairly aggressive / albeit short lived) when things look to be turning your way is an approach that works for me. Keep in mind I am generally playing 1-4 numbers at a time so progressions for me are not the same as progressions for someone playing double dozens.
Bankroll is absolutely crucial to success. If you can't play it out you are very likely to lose. You have to have staying power and emotionally you have to know that you don't absolutely have to win in the next x number of spins.
Just my two cents. Be well funded, pick your bets well, use progressions both positive and negative to your advantage based on your testing and experience. Always use stop-losses so you don't dig a hole you can't get out of.
Guys
A progressions basically says, "I'm not winning now, but I will be soon and I'll get all my money back plus a pro*it." (spilled drink on computer)
*lat betting says, "I'm not winning now on small units, but soon I will win lots more decisions on the same small bet and get all my money back plust a pro*it."
Either way, it's like saying you want a longer board so you saw a twelve inches o** one end and glue it to the other.
Well, maybe not truly that hard............
But close.......
Sam
The House Edge...........
I* that's all that's bothering anyone, why not go to BVNZ. They are honest and there is no house edge. What's to overcome?
Sam
I basically dont believe in house edge, sure i do recognize that it does exist but i just ignore them.
when you bet on a number and you hit it you win, if not you lose as simple as that.
@GLC
If you mean on some positive progression then we can agree that with some deviation on our side we can survive for a while, but if you meant on negative progression then let god help you :D
Quote from: marvin on Mar 28, 10:02 AM 2013
I basically don't believe in house edge, sure i do recognize that it does exist but i just ignore them.
when you bet on a number and you hit it you win, if not you lose as simple as that.
and I also tried to ignore the home advantage but after a while I realized that she will not ignore me ;D
Quote from: marvin on Mar 28, 10:02 AM 2013
I basically don't believe in house edge,
so when you win and you get 35u back instead of 36....you dont believe it....lol
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Mar 28, 09:23 AM 2013
A progressions basically says, "I'm not winning now, but I will be soon and I'll get all my money back plus a pro*it." (spilled drink on computer)
*lat betting says, "I'm not winning now on small units, but soon I will win lots more decisions on the same small bet and get all my money back plust a pro*it."
Either way, it's like saying you want a longer board so you saw a twelve inches o** one end and glue it to the other.
Well, maybe not truly that hard............
But close.......
Sam
I won't speak for others Sam. But when I am talking about a progression I am talking about a tool to be used...another play. It's there to accentuate the wins. Could I lose more because of it? Yes. This is gambling of course.
But I am playing a single number in alot of cases (sometimes as many as 3 or 4 numbers). Is my bet selection strong enough to win flat betting? Usually YES. But I am playing in B&M casinos...not online where I can spin every 5 seconds or have a machine just keep grinding it out. I just don't have time to make what I want to make flat betting sometimes.
The other thing I personally am doing...I am playing to WIN. This isn't a night on the town. If I have what I feel to be the right conditions I am betting bigger...by the very essence of the fact that I am not betting flat I have therefore "progressed" my bet in some cases. Sometimes for 4 or 5 spins...sometimes for 20. If conditions dictate progressing my bets, either positive or negative I will do it without hesitation...because I am playing to WIN. I am not playing for a draw and I am prepared to go down in flames doing so.
I can win flat betting...I just choose to occassionally use progressions because it fits my gameplan, just as others choose to bet a ton of numbers because it fits their gameplan. Progressions are a tool to use in the game...if they couldn't be used as effective tools there would be no such thing as table limits. If you have the bankroll and the stomach for the "judicious" use of progressions and you are of a similar mindset as I am (playing to win) then why would a well thought out and reasonable progression not be used?
KEY
I play progressions all the time. The D'Alembert is my progression o* choice. Not knocking them; just bloviating.
When your "system/method" achieves a state where dispersion is kept to a minimum, a progression will work very well.
I envy those who can read random and bet accordingly. Maybe someday I'll take it up. *or now, my play is doing pretty well with progressions. There is a time to just stop *or the day and come back to *ight again.
Sam
I'm currently using the divisor method (with my own tweak) on 24 numbers but I increase the divisor after every loss so that it is less volatile.
I also only bet for a win after a win whether it be virtual or real.
I only start a session after 2 virtual wins and each session either ends +5 or break even.
Quote from: Steve on Mar 28, 06:52 AM 2013
GLC, you are so incredibly wrong, and it is not my mere opinion. You can beat roulette, but only if you increase the accuracy of predictions.
Progression alone is certain death for your bankroll. Absolute fact. You are not covering losses. You are just making different bets of different sizes. I created :.genuinewinner.com/truth/ to help explain it.
Steve you have been preaching this stuff for years, the house edge is only 2.7%, now that's hardly unbeatable without one of your roulette computers or some kind of physical application strategy.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Mar 28, 12:58 PM 2013
KEY
I play progressions all the time. The D'Alembert is my progression o* choice. Not knocking them; just bloviating.
When your "system/method" achieves a state where dispersion is kept to a minimum, a progression will work very well.
I envy those who can read random and bet accordingly. Maybe someday I'll take it up. *or now, my play is doing pretty well with progressions. There is a time to just stop *or the day and come back to *ight again.
Sam
I've seen your videos...I didn't think you had become a progression "hater" ;)
I like the fibo myself...although with betting only a few numbers at the most it takes quite a few spins to get through the first steps. The nice thing for me is that with repeating/hot numbers coming in waves the negative progression naturally turns into a positive progression in alot of cases and although I hate slogging through the slow times...when I catch a run I just leave the progression up and I'm sitting nice really quick. (No...it doesn't always work out that way...but it does more times than not)
I don't worry so much about reading random (is it official have we turned the word random into a noun?) I just trust my testing and the "random" nature of those numbers repeating within a certain estimated frequency and I
randomly win every so many spins and I
randomly try to indulge in the seafood buffet just after I
randomly hit a hot streak and suspect that a
random lull in the action might be approaching.
[reveal]random![/reveal]
Quote from: Turner on Mar 28, 11:10 AM 2013
so when you win and you get 35u back instead of 36....you don't believe it....LoL
:twisted: i just keep in mind that the it is what it is and don't bother about it dear turner :xd:
so lets just get a good bet selection, increase our bankroll and choose a great progression :thumbsup:
Quote from: rouletteKEY on Mar 28, 02:07 PM 2013
I've seen your videos...I didn't think you had become a progression "hater" ;)
I like the fibo myself...although with betting only a few numbers at the most it takes quite a few spins to get through the first steps. The nice thing for me is that with repeating/hot numbers coming in waves the negative progression naturally turns into a positive progression in a lot of cases and although I hate slogging through the slow times...when I catch a run I just leave the progression up and I'm sitting nice really quick. (No...it doesn't always work out that way...but it does more times than not)
I don't worry so much about reading random (is it official have we turned the word random into a noun?) I just trust my testing and the "random" nature of those numbers repeating within a certain estimated frequency and I randomly win every so many spins and I randomly try to indulge in the seafood buffet just after I randomly hit a hot streak and suspect that a random lull in the action might be approaching.
Thats about it KEY...what you just said...with luck thrown in. In your case, maybe the luck lies in guessing how long the seafood has been out.
Turner
Quote from: marvin on Mar 28, 02:17 PM 2013
:twisted: i just keep in mind that the it is what it is and don't bother about it dear turner :xd:
so lets just get a good bet selection, increase our bankroll and choose a great progression :thumbsup:
I understand, i just think flat betting can lead you to the same place as progressions most of the time. You just sweat less flat betting.
Also, many times, progressions are a sticking plaster on a sh*t idea.
And no SAM...that aterisk wasn't an "f" :smile:
I have been testing two systems for the last year. One is Tera TNT and the other is The Very Near Infallible Roulette System. Both with my own minor tweaks. I occasionally go to the local casino and play for real, real quarters that is.
I've never busted a 1,000 unit bank on either system during this testing phase. Gotten close a few times. I'm prepared to go beyond a 1,000 units if need be. I haven't needed more than 400 in actual play. In testing I've been down 900 plus once. It would be a nightmare session to ever bust a 2,000 unit bank. I know it can happen. But the way I stop and start in certain situations, it would be the worst luck imaginable. Sometimes I'm digging out of the hole for longer than I like, but it has to be done to keep the volatility down.
I've worked with these systems until I have my Masters in The Very Near and a doctorate in Tera TNT (Dynamic Balance is another name for it).
Any time I lose 7 out of 10 bets, I stop play until I get 3 paper wins in a row. This can slow the game down a bit, but it's saved my bacon multiple times. Sometimes it turns from bad to good right when I stop betting and all I did was throw away the chance to win 3 times in a row, but other times I skip over prolonged streaks of losing 7 or so times out of 10 that can last for 20 to 30 spins and would have cost me dearly.
All I'm saying is that I can't even imagine playing these systems without a decent progression. By the way, I'm up well over 1,000 units on both games. I just love to play with progressions and I hate to play flat bets. Maybe the "Kraken" will show up some day and change my mind for me, but till then I can tell you that progressions are a lot more exciting than flat betting.
:o GLC
Hey George.
how many step levels (of progression) would being 900 down represent?
I totally agree with Steve here...
Quote from: Chrisbis on Mar 28, 06:18 PM 2013
Hey George.
how many step levels (of progression) would being 900 down represent?
There's no way to assign a number of levels because of the nature of the progressions. With The Very Near ... you bet 1 unit until you win and all losses up to that win get distributed into 7 different recovery banks. These banks are where the bet size increases because you bet all the units in a bank and if you lose, those units are distributed into the existing banks. With some bad luck while betting the contents of these banks, the losses can climb pretty high.
Tera TNT's progression is based on the Oscar's Grind method of increasing the bet size after wins. The number of units you increase by grows if you are having a bad streak, but the control number increases by more steps also. This is supposed to create a "Dynamic Balance" to keep you in the game long enough to have a good win to loss ratio stretch so you can recover.
Search the forum for both The Very Near and Tera TNT and you can get a better sense of what I'm talking about. It's not like a marty or a fibo where you can know exactly how many losses in a row you've had at any given number of units down.
They're both pretty complicated, especially The Very Near. Wow! It's a mess because of the author's English. I don't even know if I truly understand exactly how he wants you to play it, so I devised my own method keeping it as close to his as I think necessary. Tera TNT is pretty straightforward. It does take pen and paper, but the basic idea is easy to grasp.
By the way, The Very Near is in our download section if you're interested. Take a read through it and you'll see what I mean.
GLC
Quote from: GLC on Mar 28, 05:35 PM 2013
I just love to play with progressions and I hate to play flat bets. Maybe the "Kraken" will show up some day and change my mind for me, but till then I can tell you that progressions are a lot more exciting than flat betting.
:o GLC
I am enjoing "Clash of the Titans" in this thread after long time. I would like to point out that flat betting also exciting as 'Jeus' show up from time to time as saviour. I have transformed GLC's 'two up and zero down' progression as 'multi level flat progression' using safety brake and parlay and it seems to me ' I am invincible' to deny going to hole that also employ even regression and virtual technique. for the progreession idea, i am grateful to GLC.
MAY GOD BLESS YOU GEORGE!
CATALYST
this is a forum at it's best.
an idea put out there and others contributing and offering their opinions, agreeing or otherwise.
for me, i agree with george. a progression, if used with a decent bet selection, keeps you in the game.
using good mm adds to our armoury. i think if we approach the game professionally and as george has said, with seperate 1000 unit banks, then with all three tools, ie bet selection, progression and mm, then we have a chance.
Unfortunately progression is not the answer. it can change the outcome. It can make u lose less or more. It can make u win less or more. but it can't make u win instead of losing. If u bet wrong numbers overall --nothing will hep u win. But if your progression is too dangerous, even if You are ahead a little and bet more right numbers than wrong, u still can end up with disaster. That's how progressions are. But if u r a master of progression and u r a little ahead then You can make your wins bigger and losses smaller with help of progression, thus win more. But a progression itself is not an answer. Right bet selection is a key.
Nothing is more wrong that thinking that with a right progression only u can overcome a house edge. It's simply impossible.
We can't overcome the house edge with bet selection.
We can't overcome the house edge with bet progression.
:o ??? :-X :'( :-[
you is not equal to "we"
:)
Quote from: GLC on Mar 29, 03:59 PM 2013
We can't overcome the house edge with bet selection.
We can't overcome the house edge with bet progression.
:o ??? :-X :'( :-[
I will beg to differ on this one with you
I believe the house edge...even here in the USA where its pretty big...is able to be overcome and is overcome.
It cannot be overcome without solid bet selection as the table limit will undoubtedly at some point stop you from "buying your way out it" on the bet selection front.
Add reasoned progressions, both positive and negative, applied in a timely manner and it all becomes that much easier.
This isn't rocket science guys. Solid bet selection, good money management (progressions and stop-losses), suitably large bankroll, emotional stability, patience and discipline. It really is that simple. If everything is locked down you can obviously still have bad runs...but the good runs far outpace them in the long run (and even most short runs). Screw up on any one of those areas though and your possibility of failure can skyrocket pretty quick. Human nature doesn't allow most people to succeed.
1. Solid bet selection - the single most important aspect to winning
2. Good money management - reasonable stop losses, slight negative progressions when warranted and aggressive positive progressions for short bursts
3. Large bankroll - doesn't matter how good you are - if you aren't well capitalized luck becomes a huge part of the equation and it doesn't have to be
4. Emotional stability - being well funded helps in avoiding panic on drawdowns, stay alert and concentrate on the task at hand
5. Patience - you can score big quick but it usually doesn't happen that way...sometimes it takes awhile to get a good opportunity to really attack
6. Discipline - if you don't have a bet...don't make one. Don't try to recover too fast and know when to quit...emotional stability helps you all thru these as well
Think about your losing sessions and think about your winning sessions and compare your entire game to the list I just put up...I see people go bust all the time and they are usually violating at least one but usually all 6 keys here and they wonder why they lose. They come to the table with $200, pick their birthday, when that doesn't win they start adding a bunch more numbers, when those don't win they see that black hit 6 times in a row and that can't keep going so they throw a Marty against red and because they didn't have the bank, bet poorly, had no money management whatsoever and of course now they are pissed that they impatiently threw away all their money. It happens every day countless times just while I'm sitting there.
Most of the people on the forums are a little better than that but many don't make good bets or chase the win that just isn't coming. Many come underfunded and human nature dictates that most have little or no patience or the discipline to either stick with their plan or modify it when conditions call for it. Read the posts, everybody wants to play a kajillion numbers to have a strike rate they can feel good about all the while neglecting the inherent fact that strike rate and profitability are not the same thing and success is not measured in strike rate...it's measured in gain or loss...an emotional failure.
There's nothing new here...this is the same thing I've talked about for a long time...same things that get touched on in countless threads by alot of experienced players. Same things that all get cast aside as BS or grumblings in every single thread.
To get back to the subject of this thread "You can only win with a progression!" No. You can win without a progression but you can win more with a progression when you use it properly and properly is not a mindless application of throwing chips all over the felt because you just lost 6 bets in a row.
Whew...that was alot more than the two sentences I intended to write. Sorry about the extended monologue there guys...guess my frustration at reading alot of posts sort of built up and landed here.
if i only something knew,
nothing real here new,
would get out of the cage
if defeated house edge.
yes we here got a quest.
won't help us any guest?
what important is: progression
or OK is bet selection?
Where should be our success?
how to easy make progress?
Very few to know the answer,
not enough to play a dancer...
RouletteKEY
Nice speech...but its all sound bites. I'd like to think we all know this stuff.
Whats a solid bet selection in your opinion?
I dont know what you mean by solid.
I think roulette is rocket science. Thers more to it than meets the eye.
All your points are very generic.
So I write down your 6 points on a scrap of paper and walk up to the table all disciplined and a wallet full of cash, and as emotionally stable as a Buddhist Monk.... What do i bet on?
I thought it was more common sense than sound bites...but I can see your point. I'd like to think most people know them as well...if we can agree they make sense...next time you belly up to the felt pay attention to how many people actually abide by the points of common sense...knowing them and acting on them are two completely different things.
Most people just miss the obvious things, get caught up emotionally in the game and it spirals outta control...sometimes for the good, but mostly not so much.
Solid bet selection. Something that is well tested and as predictable as anything can be in this game or cycles and waves (I can reasonably predict in any given 120 spin cycle a few numbers will not hit at all and several numbers will hit 6-8 times, maybe a really hot number or two go even higher). Solid in that if you have a bad run... that every bet selection has... that you can recover without betting the farm and reaching table limits. For me it's the cyclical nature of repeating numbers which also sometimes equates to hot wheel sectors...not because I'm timing a croupier or anything sophisticated in any way. I just see how patterns develop and protect myself in the times that I miss on my analysis with stop losses. By protecting my downside I am able generally to capitalize when I am correct with the positive progressions.
Bet selection / more specifically...I'm looking at a repeating number (singular) or a hot wheel sector (4 number sector or less)...and that's pretty much it. I play that number to a win or a loss (I used to play 3-5 numbers this way but I'm finding straight up suits me better...more profitable). If it's a loss I stop at a certain point and resume my bets with the next qualifying number. Cap my negative progression at 3-5 units and depending on where I am overall once the inevitable win occurs I decide whether to drop back some as a starting point for a positive progression or continue a positive progression from the point where my negative left off on the win. It's not rocket science because identifying a repeating number just isn't that difficult. 34 red hit x number of spins ago...it just hit again...that's a repeating number...let's see if it repeats again in the next X number of spins...it does I win...it doesn't I lose and go on to the next qualifying number. You have to have patience and the bankroll to play it out though. If you have to be meandering around the casino every 30 minutes...you just can't play it...if you walk in with $300 in your pocket...you can't play it out. It has to be worth your while.
Numbers will repeat and numbers will sleep...you know in any given 120 spins a number or two is gonna hit 7-8 times (not always I know that)...it's just a matter of which number. Another few numbers will hit 5 or 6 times in 120 spins. If it takes 20 spins to track the first one...you have 5-7 more hits in the next 100 spins in alot of cases...if I play a positive progression on winnings and am hitting a single number every 20-30 spins...I am winning...most people would never have the patience to play it...part of the reason they lose. I see it every single time I play and almost everybody else on these forums do to. It's not difficult...it's just boring and since most people are interested more in the entertainment value and the excitement instead of the profitability their performance financially suffers, although obviously everybody gets a hot streak sometimes no matter what method they choose. But with 35:1 odds on a single play I just have the best possible opportunity to recover if down and multiply my winnings if I am up.
Just a systematic, boring approach based on sound bites that most people would never adhere to because it's just not that much fun. It's a grind, but it's worked for me for a long time. It is what it is as they say.
Turner...on the last sentence...bet on repeating numbers to keep repeating...but don't bet on many
Thanks RK....now that's less generic. I'm with you all the way on that explaination.
You don't speak of cold numbers much. i do very well with a few repeaters....a few that have just hit and a few cold for a few spins. No set stratedgy and keeping the choices different, but with the same rules.
Do you know what my biggest problem is with casinos? How can i explain.?
if I go in a pub and its full of kids, and knobheads, i go in a different pub, until the pub is full of reasonable people just socialising and out for a quiet pint. My local is like this.
I wish I could find a casino that is full of sensible people who bet constructivly with reason. I'm sat there with the wife...following the marquee...jotting stuff down with the provided pen and paper and making reasoned decisions. The other 5 people at the table are idi.ots...stacking chips high and everywhere without rhyme or reason....leaning all over me, stinking like they havnt bathed for weeks. Most distracting. Casinos can be sh*tholes in the UK. I wish they were like 5 star hotels. The kind James Bond goes in.
if it was a pub...I would have left and found a better one...but all casinos are like that. It spoils it...mixing with those dumb fuc*ers.
What's the scene at 8 or 9 am Turner?
What time do the casinos open?
Yeah that's a different environment than what I have...I have an added edge. In order to get a single 0 wheel I am necessarily obliged to play in the high limit room...where at least most people have bathed fairly recently if for no other reason than they got comped a room with a nice marble shower and steam jets.
Sleepers...about the only time I take a flyer on a sleeper is if something hasn't hit forever (150-200 spins) and then wakes up. I might be coerced at that point to go on it...but usually...not so much, and even then I may let it go another 10 or 15 spins before I start. Very very seldom my kinda play...odds are better for me to jump in if that waking sleeper is in or next to a hot wheel sector at the time.
Lots of tracking and of course the snide remarks from the idiot sitting next to me about my pen and paper... who of course is going broke the whole time...
Then there's than annoying jerk who just can't do anything wrong. When he bets on two numbers, you'd almost expect the ball to spit and hit them both!
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Mar 29, 10:12 PM 2013
Then there's than annoying jerk who just can't do anything wrong. When he bets on two numbers, you'd almost expect the ball to spit and hit them both!
Yeah that *uckin guy
;D ;D ;D
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Mar 29, 10:12 PM 2013
Then there's than annoying jerk who just can't do anything wrong. When he bets on two numbers, you'd almost expect the ball to spit and hit them both!
Quote from: amk on Mar 29, 08:59 PM 2013
What's the scene at 8 or 9 am Turner?
What time do the casinos open?
AMK...
LoL....they open boxing day....and close christmas eve 12 midnight.. Hence the ambience of a soup kitchen :ooh:
Do you even have an edge as such if you need a progression?
Quote from: Blood Angel on Mar 30, 05:07 AM 2013
Do you even have an edge as such if you need a progression?
I think the argument could be made that your edge is derived with bet selection and that edge is amplified or compounded with a well implemented progression
Quote from: rouletteKEY on Mar 30, 07:03 AM 2013
I think the argument could be made that your edge is derived with bet selection and that edge is amplified or compounded with a well implemented progression
Agreed, so a progression wont give you an edge on its own.
Quote from: Blood Angel on Mar 30, 07:18 AM 2013
Agreed, so a progression won't give you an edge on its own.
we don't have an edge, we can't have an edge.
we can have a smart bet selection and as roulettekey says, amplify that with a progression. we can further amplify things with money management.
that's my take on it anyway.
that's right, but this is still a double end spear. Progression which amplifies your winnings at this moment, at the next moment may reduce it. And frequently it happens both ways. And now, when u lose because of it, u lose more than u win...because of the "old good" house edge (that's only one thing) and also because your losses now are AMPLIFIED also. And it is extremely hard to predict exactly when it will work for u or against u.
and the truth is, that because roulette is always NEGATIVE EXPECTATION GAME, there is always a big chance that next time when u bet after u won, u will lose it. And if u already lost, there is a big chance than u lose again.
all "holy grails" lose when u play more and more spins no matter what. That's a fact.
all this stuff i am saying does not mean that i think u always lose no matter what. On the contrary, i think You can win. but not the way most of the guys try to do it...No holy grails, no progressions...but accuracy of prediction as Steve said. but i think it can be achieved by different ways.
The house edge is just there....fact.
The odds you get (what the casino pay) for winning are smaller than the odds for winning. Thats a fact.
How can that fact be "overcome"?
It cant.
How could how you play or progress or how much you carry into the casino make them pay you 36:1?
You cant.
Im willing to listen to an explaination how you get 36:1 on inside numbers by the way you play.
That would be interesting.
in fact because of progression players casinos get much more than just house edge. That's why most of the tables have flexible limits. If casinos were afraid of progressions they would make limits much more stiffer. U wouldn't be able to increase your bets if they were afraid of your progressions. But they are mostly not. I mean to some extent.
They know well that absolutely most of the progression players will lose and lose much more than they won.
At a casino we have the luck factor i.e. the variance, which make us lose or win in the short term. The HE is a tax of 1.3 to 5.25 % and there is not ANY betselection which can overcome it in the long run. Not even statistical methods. As it does not matter when we play and where we play, our statistics will not as a whole change. HAR will not work deviation will not work, in fact only luck works.
The ball do not know anything about the game, so it is that we just bet and it is the fallen number we win, and the odds are against us.
If ecart should work, I could play in fun until I got an extreme ecart, then switch to the real and be sure to win. As it does not matter which fair wheel we use, the long term outcome will not differ.
On a non zero wheel it is the variance only to master, it is a very large difference to have the fair odds. Every casino have a profit of the HE over the long run. On a NOZ the casino pay all deposit money back to the players. All deposit money will be taxed at BV with 10% and that's that such casino make profit on.
10% of the winnings are for most players far less than 2.7% HE. The zero wheel may only be better if the player do one bet and then are taxed by the risk of 2.7%. As soon we play grinding system the HE grows to up to 27% of the deposed money, as we reuse the chips. Many grinding system which show a profit of 10% of the turnover after many spins on NZ has lost all the bankroll on zero wheel.
When we play we should try to do it rater bold, so we win if we are in the lucky phase, not only break even or take a small winning, in opposite situations we will anyhow lose, how ever er try.
Thats says flat betting can not win more than a lucky string of numbers. Progression helps, but it puts the loss a head, if we are winning today we lose later. It can to some grade be handled with MM, and stop. Anybody win much protect the profit best with playing less.
We often mix up luck and methods. It is a small chance for anyone to win long term, and that can happen without any skill involved.
QuoteThe HE is a tax of 1.3 to 5.25 % and there is not ANY bets which can overcome it in the long run.
What do you mean by don't pass the long run, i see many simulation using progression who pass 1 milion spins.
And i also my self pass 800.000 spins using a 12 step fibo, with out the HE had so much effect towards the overall game.
.
No wounder wizard of odds and others say that all system fail, as they run them for billion spins and then show us the effect of HE ...
Quote from: ego on Mar 30, 10:43 AM 2013
What do you mean by don't pass the long run, i see many simulation using progression who pass 1 milion spins.
And i also my self pass 800.000 spins using a 12 step fibo, with out the HE had so much effect towards the overall game.
.
No wounder wizard of odds and others say that all system fail, as they run them for billion spins and then show us the effect of HE ...
It is not impossible to win millions of spins, but it is rare.
We can flat bet 10000000000 spins, and even do it on only one EC. It is a chance that EC will give a profit of millions of units.
Depending of if we pick the right to just that spins.
I did a test on a website and tested 1000000 spins using Martingale, fib and DÃ lembert 10 trials each the fib got a net and the other bust by large amount. Everthing can happen, we can win, but we do not must!
What I have noticed is that I need to bet much larger bets when I'm playing a flat bet because I don't expect to win more than a few units. Playing for $1 or even $5 can be boring if you're just hovering around even all day. So, like my frined Michael said, he has to play for $20 units to make it worth his time. Then a normal downturn can send your blood racing as you find yourself in the hole a few hundred bucks.
Also, some progressions can weather an extremely bad win to loss ratio. If you're playing an 8 step marty which is affordable for most gamblers, LLLLLWLLLWLWLWLLLLLLWLWWLLLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLLLLW is death to any progression or flatbet but the marty player is singing right through it. Of course he doesn't like WLLLLLLLLL but like Ralph said, it takes luck for any of us to win.
When I was playing the Advanced Revere Point Count in Blackjack, I had at least a 2% edge against 2 deck games at the Circus Circus casino (yes it was a very long time ago) and I went through a terrible losing stretch where I lost 2,000 units over a 3 month period. Fortunately I had just come through a winning streak and was up 1200 units so only an 800 unit loss, but I kept thinking "what the ...." That's when I started to understand the gambler's ruin graph I had seen that said I needed about 2,0000 units to guard agains a total loss even with a 2% advantage much less a 2% disadvantage.
There are just no guarantees when you're playing against random, but with a large number of back-up units, you can weather most storms. That's why you never play with money you can't afford to lose.
If all you have is a few hundred units, your only choice is to keep the progression minimized and hope for the best.
GLC
Quote from: GLC on Mar 30, 11:52 AM 2013
What I have noticed is that I need to bet much larger bets when I'm playing a flat bet because I don't expect to win more than a few units. Playing for $1 or even $5 can be boring if you're just hovering around even all day. So, like my frined Michael said, he has to play for $20 units to make it worth his time. Then a normal downturn can send your blood racing as you find yourself in the hole a few hundred bucks.
Also, some progressions can weather an extremely bad win to loss ratio. If you're playing an 8 step marty which is affordable for most gamblers, LLLLLWLLLWLWLWLLLLLLWLWWLLLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLWLLLLWLLLLLLWLLLLLLLW is death to any progression or flatbet but the marty player is singing right through it. Of course he doesn't like WLLLLLLLLL but like Ralph said, it takes luck for any of us to win.
When I was playing the Advanced Revere Point Count in Blackjack, I had at least a 2% edge against 2 deck games at the Circus Circus casino (yes it was a very long time ago) and I went through a terrible losing stretch where I lost 2,000 units over a 3 month period. Fortunately I had just come through a winning streak and was up 1200 units so only an 800 unit loss, but I kept thinking "what the ...." That's when I started to understand the gambler's ruin graph I had seen that said I needed about 2,0000 units to guard agains a total loss even with a 2% advantage much less a 2% disadvantage.
There are just no guarantees when you're playing against random, but with a large number of back-up units, you can weather most storms. That's why you never play with money you can't afford to lose.
If all you have is a few hundred units, your only choice is to keep the progression minimized and hope for the best.
GLC
A marty handle easy an unbalance, at 80% against 20% on an EC, if the distribution is right. DÃ lembert on the other hand can take
the distribution but not the unbalance.
I have used a mixed of those by using DÃ lembert in combination with positive progression.
For a smaller bankroll a positive progression holds better. It is not sure a bet which wins often but small is better.
okay guys...regarding the house edge.
Knowing that numbers repeat you are saying you can't develop a method that allows you to win a single number bet on average with 34 bets? Which would essentially be turning the house edge around to a players edge.
You have the ability to place bets when and where you want... and within table limits the casino must take your bets...to me that sounds like a players edge. Most people just would never play it because it's ridiculously boring and tedious. Honestly if you can't develop a method that can predict a winning number (on average...that's where progressions come in) once per 34 spins on average...then this perhaps isn't your game. In most 36 spin cycles about a dozen numbers aren't gonna show and the other 24 +/- are going to repeat once or more.
Perhaps the problem is we are debating two different things...I am debating a scenario using progressions which are managable where I am selecting a single number and changing that number as conditions dictate and most other players are betting double dozens, even chances, streets or a plethora of numbers on the inside. I am trying to bet on a rotating single number to hit on average every 34 spins or less to maintain my edge. If I don't get a win in 34 spins I'm down 34 units and can double my bet to a whopping 2 units...if I win in the next 18 spins I'm still in profit while only risking 70 units. Is it possible to not hit on a currently repeating number for 52 spins? Sure...but I'm only 70 units down and if I bet all of 3 units on the next spin and win...I am still up winning only a single bet in 53 spins while risking only 73 units to earn a 35 unit profit...I am up 50% with a single win while only risking 73 units. I know it very well may not win the very spin I up the bet...but regardless of when it wins...and it will win at some point as numbers do repeat...I will be in the plus and once in the plus I can play a positive progression and win more or lose my way back to break even. Do I stop the negative progression at a certain point...sure...you can't carry it out forever and at some point I know I'm going to get 3 or 4 wins within a 36 spin cycle so I can grind my way back into it...patience and bankroll will persevere if the bet selection is good and the progression is within reason.
I am not supporting mindless crazy progressions either negative or positive...just a well thought out and boring method to trudge along until an opportunity arises that allows me to go positive on the progression with won money and really parlay it into something special...sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't, but most will never know for themselves because they lack the patience to slog thru it, the discipline to not start chucking chips all over the place for excitement or the bankroll to face a drawdown out of the gate.
The question remains "can you ONLY win with a progression?"...I contend the answer remains no...but a progression helps and since my style of play is so totally foreign to many I think it's tough for alot of people to get their heads around it if you are playing double dozens or the like because you are so down, so fast, and your wins paying 1 to 2 in this example give you no real opportunity to recover...tempered progressions do work when you have good bet selection and a solid bankroll.
Testing 3 kajillion spins isn't completely useless but it doesn't translate well sometimes...testing needs to work in a series of however many spins you can sit at the wheel for...(not discussing bots here...that's a separate scenario) Testing tons of numbers is great so you can see what to expect...it's a cyclical game...you need to know if your bet selection can often go cold for X amount of spins and generally speaking how often will that happen. You need to see thru testing that when your primary method is experiencing a RFH what else is generally happening...is there a way to profit from that? Is there a way to recognize it early on...maybe yes...maybe no...
You've got to look at the big picture...progressions are a part of that picture and how they are applied or not applied will certainly have an impact on your success or failure in any given session or overall for the month or year.
Quote from: rouletteKEY on Mar 30, 12:22 PM 2013
okay guys...regarding the house edge.
Knowing that numbers repeat you are saying you can't develop a method that allows you to win a single number bet on average with 34 bets? Which would essentially be turning the house edge around to a players edge.
You have the ability to place bets when and where you want... and within table limits the casino must take your bets...to me that sounds like a players edge. Most people just would never play it because it's ridiculously boring and tedious. Honestly if you can't develop a method that can predict a winning number (on average...that's where progressions come in) once per 34 spins on average...then this perhaps isn't your game. In most 36 spin cycles about a dozen numbers aren't gonna show and the other 24 +/- are going to repeat once or more.
Perhaps the problem is we are debating two different things...I am debating a scenario using progressions which are managable where I am selecting a single number and changing that number as conditions dictate and most other players are betting double dozens, even chances, streets or a plethora of numbers on the inside. I am trying to bet on a rotating single number to hit on average every 34 spins or less to maintain my edge. If I don't get a win in 34 spins I'm down 34 units and can double my bet to a whopping 2 units...if I win in the next 18 spins I'm still in profit while only risking 70 units. Is it possible to not hit on a currently repeating number for 52 spins? Sure...but I'm only 70 units down and if I bet all of 3 units on the next spin and win...I am still up winning only a single bet in 53 spins while risking only 73 units to earn a 35 unit profit...I am up 50% with a single win while only risking 73 units. I know it very well may not win the very spin I up the bet...but regardless of when it wins...and it will win at some point as numbers do repeat...I will be in the plus and once in the plus I can play a positive progression and win more or lose my way back to break even. Do I stop the negative progression at a certain point...sure...you can't carry it out forever and at some point I know I'm going to get 3 or 4 wins within a 36 spin cycle so I can grind my way back into it...patience and bankroll will persevere if the bet selection is good and the progression is within reason.
I am not supporting mindless crazy progressions either negative or positive...just a well thought out and boring method to trudge along until an opportunity arises that allows me to go positive on the progression with won money and really parlay it into something special...sometimes it happens and sometimes it doesn't, but most will never know for themselves because they lack the patience to slog thru it, the discipline to not start chucking chips all over the place for excitement or the bankroll to face a drawdown out of the gate.
The question remains "can you ONLY win with a progression?"...I contend the answer remains no...but a progression helps and since my style of play is so totally foreign to many I think it's tough for a lot of people to get their heads around it if you are playing double dozens or the like because you are so down, so fast, and your wins paying 1 to 2 in this example give you no real opportunity to recover...tempered progressions do work when you have good bet selection and a solid bankroll.
Testing 3 kajillion spins isn't completely useless but it doesn't translate well sometimes...testing needs to work in a series of however many spins you can sit at the wheel for...(not discussing bots here...that's a separate scenario) Testing tons of numbers is great so you can see what to expect...it's a cyclical game...you need to know if your bet selection can often go cold for X amount of spins and generally speaking how often will that happen. You need to see thru testing that when your primary method is experiencing a RFH what else is generally happening...is there a way to profit from that? Is there a way to recognize it early on...maybe yes...maybe no...
You've got to look at the big picture...progressions are a part of that picture and how they are applied or not applied will certainly have an impact on your success or failure in any given session or overall for the month or year.
Single number is many times better than EC, but in Europe you may be forced to tip on a single win and the EC has half the HE.
I have had 1008 spins once without a hit on a single number. It was anyhow possible to end the session with plus.(It was on line so 2000 spins was done in reasonable time).
I have just got my latest system into my bot ...18 and out...now called 18 wheeler..
i have paid good money for nick to do this and its been a time consuming job to
complete..even though it has cost me I've been reading this thread with interest
and invite you to download this tracker that i paid for and see what you think...
its too big to put on the site but i put it on my skydrive for all and everyone to
download. link:://sdrv.ms/16otZDZ (link:://sdrv.ms/16otZDZ)
this doesn't use a progression as such...but i am finding it a very good system when
used right...using it right to me personally means resetting everything when in plus
one or more units...my bot does this automatically and i only got this final sheet
yesterday...to manually do it ..when you win just put a zero in the number you won
on then press enter...right click on it then copy...keep left mouse button pressed
and scroll up previous numbers to where results started ..right click then paste...
you will see all numbers below your zero are still there but starting triggers from
scratch,,,that is if you put a few thousand in to test..
you can play with profit target and loss...i set mine at plus 1 minus 600...
you can bet on 1 trigger or all...1 = all.....other triggers are 1.1 1,2 13
2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 .3.2 3.3
i use all triggers as when some are losing others are winning...
my rule is to always reset and start again when in plus....
why am i posting it here...becouse i believe this wins more than loses without
progression as we all see it..
you have nothing to lose but look ...i paid for it so its costing you nothing...
you can set it to stop betting a trigger automatically when in plus too..
it also resets trigger when 18 unique numbers come out...
im just wondering how many spins you can do in your lifetime ???
Quote from: Ralph on Mar 30, 12:34 PM 2013
I have had 1008 spins once without a hit on a single number. It was anyhow possible to end the session with plus.(It was on line so 2000 spins was done in reasonable time).
Exactly my point...recovery ability on a single number or low amount of played number basis.
I've never seen a 1008 spin dead cycle... but there really isn't much that surprises me with roulette...point being... Ralph was able to recover a true RFH on a single number. What is your favorite bet guys...EC's, streets, dozens...do the math and figure out what that 1008 spins on a single equate to in a RFH on whatever your poison is?...could you recover from it's equivalent?
My math says he should have won 27 times and change in that span (he had a 1/37 chance for 1008 spins...1/37=.027027 times 1008=27.24 expected wins)
So even chance on European wheel is 48.6% chance of win (27.24 expected wins divided by .486 chance of win=equivalent of 56 EC spins without a win)
Now I don't know what the recovery period looked like...but on an EC basis how do you recover from whatever hole even a reasonable progression on a 56 loss EC basis put you in? Is there even such a thing as a reasonable 57 spin progression for EC's? Is there a table limit or a bankroll that could (or should we ask the question should?) be played to handle this type of scenario?
Okay so now it's turned into a less numbers is better rant instead of debating the progression...I know...but bet selection goes hand in hand with the progression debate...so here I am.