A friend told me he just got 13 even numbers in a row, and he ask me for the probability of that.
My answer was 100.000000%.
He had problem to grasp that, probability is allways 100.000000% while looking back, probability belongs to the events in the future.
Everthing which has happen has 100.000000% probability, if we not can travel faster than the light.
It will not be anything due, even if we see a very hard deviation, it can grow more, it is not bound to change, rather be diluted.
Deviation has as the wheel no memory. The next step in a random stream never look back!!
When I track for hot numbers I just chose to use that way, I never know.
Ralph
May I rephrase the question?
What is the probability my next 13 numbers will all be red?
Sam
Quote from: TwoCatSam on May 26, 04:51 PM 2013
Ralph
May I rephrase the question?
What is the probability my next 13 numbers will all be red?
Sam
Sam!
Depends on the wheel, and we presume it is fair. If NOZ just as we use to count 0.5000000000000000 multiple 13 times.
Never use decimal if not many figures after the point.
At American, do not use decimal, use 18/38 multiply 13 times.
In roulette there is no such thing as a "random" event or probability. The ball lands in a pocket for a certain reason, its a physical reason.
Pshaw!! Stuff and nonsense!!
Human brains have difficult to understand random. The fact something has a "physical reason" never void a random events. A radioactive decay is a physical event and a random event.
Which events are not physical?
Even a biased wheel produce random outcomes, but with not the same probability for all numbers.
Information can change the random to not random. The numbers fallen and published from some casinos are random even if they are past, but
we can change its state by looking at them, and chose a stream which suits a purpose.
A device which can tell the next number for a wheel, make it not random only if it is 100% right. It is normal still random numbers, but the pay outs may be such as the expected value is positive.
Quote from: Ralph on May 26, 10:22 PM 2013
Human brains have difficult to understand random. The fact something has a "physical reason" never void a random events. A radioactive decay is a physical event and a random event.
Which events are not physical?
Even a biased wheel produce random outcomes, but with not the same probability for all numbers.
Information can change the random to not random. The numbers fallen and published from some casinos are random even if they are past, but
we can change its state by looking at them, and chose a stream which suits a purpose.
A device which can tell the next number for a wheel, make it not random only if it is 100% right. It is normal still random numbers, but the pay outs may be such as the expected value is positive.
But there is no such thing as random. Every thing has a cause an affect. An event happened for a certain reason, not because it was random, you cannot define random.
As for biased wheels - a biased wheel is a biased wheel because certain numbers are being hit more than probability dictates -how does random come into a biased wheel? A biased wheel is what it is, a
physical flaw is causing that bias.
The only way to ever beat roulette is the physical aspect
I think you mix up odds and randomness. A completely unbiased wheel, which happen to have 37 numbers, paying 36x for a straight up hit, has a negative expected value, and impossible to beat in the very long run.
If the payouts should change to 38x or more, the wheel should still produce random results, but get a positive expected value, and produce winnings in the long run.
A biased wheel gives random results, but if the odds on some numbers have a positive expected value, and those numbers are known to a player, he will win in the longer run. The odds on the chances are not equal on a enough biased wheel.
It comes down to the odds, nothing else.
A biased wheel is as rare as a flying penguin.
Bah! Humbug!! Humbug, I say!!
Sam!
I think we can not find a such wheel. All casinos are aware of the risks and monitor the wheels. Many who think they have found a wheel, has not, they just had a good streak.
Even if a wheel has a minor bias, it is not easy to use it. It is in the longer run the HE works for the casino. The casino table has many players which make the bettings even out on the chances. It needs only a slight advantage of 1.3% for be sure to get profit in the long run.
If betting on the even chances are about the same each, the casino get 1.3% if zero hits 1/37. For the casino the variance is lower, than for a single player.
A player can not expect a wheel with small bias, will stay like that for long, and the player win just a fraction more, which is diluted by the variance,
the player will not know if it was bias or not making the winning, if he not are allowed to play for very long time.
A Black Jack counter can maybe get at most 1% positive expectation. The game has variance, such high the player still can lose very much, and the player needs at least 10000 hands to be at any certainty some a head.
Many "counters" think they used skill, but it was luck, and many has been accused for counting, just because they win, many who count lose.
It is as much voodoo in Advantage-play as in other kinds of strategies.
"It all comes down to odds"
So what you are saying, a biased wheel is all down to odds?
Quote from: Obi Wan on May 27, 08:35 AM 2013
"It all comes down to odds"
So what you are saying, a biased wheel is all down to odds?
Yes! The payouts are higher than the real odds on some parts of the wheel, so some numbers will have a positive expected value,
as the bank payout is the same for all numbers, but theire chance of fall are not equal.
I do not think they exist in any casino today, if it is in such place you will be robbed if you win.
Any bet which pays more than then the expected will win in a longer run.
If it is an American wheel it has to be all lot unbalanced, it has to be over 5.25%, almost visible.
Casino wheel technology these days has become very sophisticated. Go to wheel maker CAMMERGHs site for an indication on what's on offer.
Casinos have statistics on every spin on every wheel through a computer linkup.
They can identify wheel bias and repair/replace that wheel most likely before any player can ID the bias ?
They monitor every dealer. What I notice these days at my local B & M casino, compared to a few years ago, is far less runs of results on any of the even chances.
The dealers are better trained to spin more randomly on wheels that have more random scatter.
CAMMERGH now has technology that has random rotor speed RRS control to minimise number reading mini computer accuracy. They say this is being introduced for online play where they will extend the bet time to just before the ball drops as in B & M play. Last bets play increases casino income.
They also have RRS on their airball wheels as well as discrete air blasts holes in the ball track.
Hey ralph. Sorry but you are incorrect. A bias is something that can and will build over time on a roulette wheel. A bias can come down to the roulette table itself or just simple wear and tear on the wheel. wheel bias is a physical event. As for ODDS, the casino has an 2.7% edge over you, this has absolutely nothing to do with wheel bias as you can appreciate.
Quote from: Obi Wan on May 28, 05:30 AM 2013
Hey ralph. Sorry but you are incorrect. A bias is something that can and will build over time on a roulette wheel. A bias can come down to the roulette table itself or just simple wear and tear on the wheel. wheel bias is a physical event. As for ODDS, the casino has an 2.7% edge over you, this has absolutely nothing to do with wheel bias as you can appreciate.
I am sorry to say you are wrong, if a wheel got bias for any reason, some outcome has not 2.7% edge for the casino, the pay 1 to 36 on a number which a odds should be for example 1 to 34 to keep the 2.7% edge.
A fair wheel with no bias and a pay out of 1 to 40 should be possible to beat. On a bias wheel some numbers has advantage odds for the player instead of the casino, because the odds are wrong from the casinos point. The same is used by sports bettor, find some odds which give advantages.
If the casino know the bias, the could put odds on the numbers different to keep the advantages, IE do not pay the same for all numbers.
The chances are not the same to hit a street or a corner, so we got different odds. The casino would adjust the wheel instead of give different odds, because it is simple, but that is an adjust which is the same as changing the odds if the wheel show other.
Ok odds do come into the equation of wheel bias, but only if you can find a bias that is strongly in your favour, then the odds change from being in the casinos favour to your favour. But this was not where i was coming from. I was on the lines of the definition of wheel bias.
Saying all this, there are easier ways to beat roulette these days. Also as ausguy said, most casinos have data loggers on there wheels to alert the casino of any bias that develops, the wheel will then be subject to calibration.
I wrote before it is not a chance to find a bias wheel today, expect from some obscure places, where they may rob a winner.
A wheel physical is never perfect, but perfect enough to keep the house advantages.
The surrender rule have less house advantages on EC, and they are not all in a sector, a wheel bias towards red is hard to think off.
Yes true a wheel is never perfect. The casino edge 2.7% always remains the same unless you approach with professional methods. Visual ballistics is one of them. Roulette can only be beaten by the approach of physics.
How can we use physics? Using it without cheating? If we cheat and at the same time complain a casino may be rigged?
Fair play has casino rules, win if you are lucky, casinos can never be a source of free money.
If you win a 1000, some other has lost it.
Exploiting a physical object that is there is not cheating, its about being smart and seeing roulette for what it really is (a ball and wheel) You can use electronics to assist you that are legal in around 50% of the world.
I'm not sure i understand you comment about casino being rigged. Can you be more clear please?
There are rigged casinos, but not the common we use, a big casino maximise theire profit using fairness.
I live in Europe, the casinos has one zero, do not mind computers. WHY, they do not work.
I have seen a computer(not in a shoe, open) and they casino staff told him it was not allowed to put on the table, but he could sit in the sofa, and bet as soon he want, as player standing, which is most of players. It is six or eight chairs and maybe 20 players. Some play more than one table,
Quote from: Ralph on May 28, 12:46 PM 2013
There are rigged casinos, but not the common we use, a big casino maximise theire profit using fairness.
I live in Europe, the casinos has one zero, do not mind computers. WHY, they do not work.
I have seen a computer(not in a shoe, open) and they casino staff told him it was not allowed to put on the table, but he could sit in the sofa, and bet as soon he want, as player standing, which is most of players. It is six or eight chairs and maybe 20 players. Some play more than one table,
Casinos are not rigged ralph, why would they be?
I find it hard to believe you saw some one using a computer, i don't think anybody would be that stupid enough to clock a roulette wheel in front of casino staff. Also you cannot say something does not work if you don't know what it is or does.
I tell you, I have seen a guy using a computer at a casino in Hamburg, he had no problem using it a few meter from the table. I am not sure about today's rule, this was about 20 years ago.
If you clock a wheel, and win, are you sure it was helping?
Todays rule? expect the computer to be stamped on if attempting to use it in front of casino staff. Again i don't understand how anybody could be that stupid.
20 years ago 1993. Microprocessors, mini cameras would not be up to the job needed to be effective back then to read & process information in time to get the bets down.
1993 is 2 years before Windows 95. Windows 95, 98, ME2000 & XP don't cut it these days. Even Vista is borderline. Windows 7 & 8 show how technology has progressed. The improvements in processing speeds (Intel etc.) and shrinking the size allows more bang for the buck.
Intergrate this into smart phones with hi res cameras, which they have with stunning success, realistically it's only in recent years that ball drop technology is viable.
Most of us should have seen Steves information on this technology.
In 2005 Hungarian Lazlo Kovacs got busted in his Sydney Australia hotel room with about $140,000 won on roulette at our local casino.
Casino pit bosses became suspicious with him constantly watching the wheel then placing late bets & mostly winning big amounts.
In the raid police found a thick pair of glasses with a mini camera fitted. A wire went to one of his shoes with a hollow heel.
In the heel was a computer with a wire connected to an earpiece. The program gave calculated numbers. This shows 8 years ago mini units were still to come.
As to 13 in a row, these days and into the future with high tech wheels & dealers combined mixing the results more consistantly I think the probability is near zero.
sorry for the italics, a keyboard fault stopped me from switching ?
Quote from: ausguy on May 29, 10:59 AM 2013
20 years ago 1993. Microprocessors, mini cameras would not be up to the job needed to be effective back then to read & process information in time to get the bets down.
1993 is 2 years before Windows 95. Windows 95, 98, ME2000 & XP don't cut it these days. Even Vista is borderline. Windows 7 & 8 show how technology has progressed. The improvements in processing speeds (Intel etc.) and shrinking the size allows more bang for the buck.
Intergrate this into smart phones with hi res cameras, which they have with stunning success, realistically it's only in recent years that ball drop technology is viable.
Most of us should have seen Steves information on this technology.
In 2005 Hungarian Lazlo Kovacs got busted in his Sydney Australia hotel room with about $140,000 won on roulette at our local casino.
Casino pit bosses became suspicious with him constantly watching the wheel then placing late bets & mostly winning big amounts.
In the raid police found a thick pair of glasses with a mini camera fitted. A wire went to one of his shoes with a hollow heel.
In the heel was a computer with a wire connected to an earpiece. The program gave calculated numbers. This shows 8 years ago mini units were still to come.
As to 13 in a row, these days and into the future with high tech wheels & dealers combined mixing the results more consistantly I think the probability is near zero.
sorry for the italics, a keyboard fault stopped me from switching ?
Hungarian Lazlo Kovacs - was he the bloke involved in the ritz team who took over a mill? Was unaware of this, cheers for the info.
Just did a bit of checking on Google The Ritz team did not involve Kovacs according to the info. about the sting. The timeline was Dec 2004 and saw a 32 aged Hungarian woman & 2 Serbian men aged 32 & 38. Over 2 days they won 1.3 million GBP. Eventually they were cleared of illegal play & paid their winnings.
They got away with it because the prediction equipment did not interfer with the rotation of the wheel or the ball, thus the number outcome was not interferred with in any way by the Ritz team. At that time UK gambling laws did not factor in computerized predictions. As no laws were broken then under the gambling gaming rules the casino was obligated to pay them, which they did.
I didn't see any connection attributed to the Ritz woman & Kovaks, both Hungarian. However the Ritz sting was only 4 months before the Kovacs episode.
Correction on my previous post on Kovacs shoe computer re : the wire to earpiece. An article said the connection was wireless.
Also mention was made that Kovacs was caught in Sydney but was thought to have visited many other Australian Casinos & winning & transferring large amounts of money overseas. Only Kovacs knows the true facts.
Plenty of info on Google etc.
There are a lot of everthing on Google, but we must check it up, information is not the same as true or fact.
Ralph - The reports are from media that gain open public information from decisions made by courts/police prosecutors/casino management.
AS are the media, Google too are just another messenger. They don't express any opinion.
So Ralph don't speak in riddles. Explain how you or anyone else can otherwise convieniently check up on any facts ? By deduction of what you stated if information is not the same as true or fact then the information I have given about The Ritz team & Kovacs is false ?
Do you have alternate information that refutes the media reports on this matter, as viewed on Google ?
Google and Youtube are sources with a lot of information, where all has to be checked double.
I just wrote about Google indexing everthing, and did not take any standpoint in the case of the Ritz team and Kovas, did I?
We can use internet as source of information, but at least not read more than there are as you may do answer my post.
Not taking sides here--just stating a fact.
The net had it that Obama's case would come before the Supreme Court on such and such date to determine if he was an American or a Kenyan.
Can't remember the exact date, but I do remember the Court was in recess.
Quote from: TwoCatSam on Jun 03, 10:43 PM 2013
Not taking sides here--just stating a fact.
The net had it that Obama's case would come before the Supreme Court on such and such date to determine if he was an American or a Kenyan.
Can't remember the exact date, but I do remember the Court was in recess.
Sam!
I suspect or are almost sure, you do not like Obama or the democrats, I do the same, but if I were able to vote in US, I may have given him my vote, in lack of better. No wonder just about 50% vote, here it is low if 80% do it.
Oh yeah, some countries report 102% vote on ONE party. We are used to at least 4-7 parties, but only one zero at the wheel. ::)
QuoteA friend told me he just got 13 even numbers in a row, and he ask me for the probability of that.My answer was 100.000000%.
You are very wrong. The probability is never 100% but merely 48.6%.
Quote from: kingsroulette on Jun 04, 04:26 AM 2013
You are very wrong. The probability is never 100% but merely 48.6%.
You look at 14 in a row. All 13 was done, and that's which is done has a probability of 100%.
Next has about little less than 100%, exactly depends wheel kind.
Ralph
It's just that my wife and I had dinner with a woman and her husband and this woman literally hates Obama. She related this alleged Supreme Court Case to me and when I told her the Court was in recess and the court date was fake--well, she just wouldn't have it because she had read it on the internet and it was true. I went home and read it.
The nut who wrote it did not have sense enough to check the court dates. It's like saying the hearing was on the 32nd of March or the 30th of February.
I do not like Obama. Not because he's black. I like lots of black people. Or African-American, whichever the reader prefers. I like some Democrats, although I think the poor souls are terribly misguided.
Jesus said, "The poor will always be with us." To me, that means you will no legislate "poor-ess" out of society. Any society. And the liberal Demos think they can eliminate "poor-ness" like it was polio.
Sam
Quote from: Ralph on Jun 04, 05:08 AM 2013
You look at 14 in a row. All 13 was done, and that's which is done has a probability of 100%.
Next has about little less than 100%, exactly depends wheel kind.
Come on!!!!!!!!!! >:(
There are always two ECs standing against each other and a green goblin Zero. How can the probability be 100% for a single EC? 100% probability isn't there if we bet both ECs like red and black together which are counterparts to hit, zero may still come.
I wonder what kind of mathematicians are here on the forums teaching alien science.
If you do a spin, and red is falling, what is the probability it has happen? Before the spin it is 50% on NOZ after it is 100% if red fall, because we know it was red, we know for sure it was red, it will never change to black.
That's the reason it is no use for waiting a row of EC and bet opposite.
Past vs Future.
Past = 100%
Future = 50%
The odds that something HAS happened are always 100%.
Sam
Quote from: Ralph on Jun 05, 12:58 AM 2013
That's the reason it is no use for waiting a row of EC and bet opposite.
Uuuu how wrong my friend :ooh:
How can you say that when there is pretty much difference in probability of sequence of 2 in a row or 15 in a row?
Does number of 2 in a row sequences happens same amount of times as the ones of 15 in a row?
Anyhow the trick is not to rely on only one row :thumbsup:
Best
Drazen
What you miss is that's allready happens has very little to do next, that's random!!!
Whats already happend is true and 100% happen, future is different!
Any spin which is history can not change it is red or black on NOZ, next is a chance.
My friend ask for the probability of 13 in a row, which had happen, what is the probability that will change?
Quote from: Ralph on Jun 05, 02:39 PM 2013
What you miss is that's allready happens has very little to do next, that's random!!!
The only thing I do miss are losing sessions my friend and deep drawdowns because of this what you are saying opposite.
I really don't see and don't understand philosophy of saying that if something just happened, it is true :question: Huh.. really?
And although random is "uncatchable" or unpredictable or whatever for someone, it has some laws to which it MUST obey. They can be observed through science as statistics is.
Anyway as ego says, we have to agree that we disagree.
Regards
Drazen
Any who claims a random outcome can be predicted, must have some plus (and very much). I am lucky, and I can not predict the future better than chance! Who can?
My success is luck!!.
Still we must care, we can do some, 5% about.
Whats just happen just happen, nothing to do about that. Who can change the outcome of the last spin?
Luck in roulette is called variance. There is nothing else in this game.
If you can control it one way or another, you have the game beaten. Simple as that.
Over and out
Drazen
Sorry ralph but you are clearly on a different wave length and i know nothing can alter your mind or opinion. Even with facts presented i know your opinion will still not change, its fair enough, but you cannot argue with facts my friend.
Quote from: Drazen on Jun 05, 03:33 PM 2013
Luck in roulette is called variance. There is nothing else in this game.
If you can control it one way or another, you have the game beaten. Simple as that.
Over and out
Drazen
That is right, on NOZ it is variance to handle, and the luck is to be on the better side. On zero wheel we get grinded down because of odds.
Quote from: Obi Wan on Jun 07, 11:09 AM 2013
Sorry ralph but you are clearly on a different wave length and i know nothing can alter your mind or opinion. Even with facts presented i know your opinion will still not change, its fair enough, but you cannot argue with facts my friend.
Which fact? I do not mend things working!
You can trap random events and isolate them into conditional probability events.
That way you can tell what will happen in the future, like having a crystal ball.
Random events still have the black swan, but this way you can get advantage if you develop a march or algorithm that catch does future events based upon the past results.
Yes you read it correct, past results influence future ones.
This can be proven with billions simulations and you will still get the same results.
If some one is interested in this kind of play, then i can write more about it.
Sure works out great for team play as tracking is a big part of this kind of playing model.
I pretty sure Drazen have something similar going based upon Bayes playing model, that might be a little different.
It might sound it contradict facts from fiction, but the truth is simple to handle.
The wheel has no memory and each spin is independent with one exception.
We can never predict the coming spins using history. We can from overall knowledge of how numbers can fall, assume a number will repeat, a run of an EC use to come and other from all over common random states. I use to FTL and try repeater, some use sleepers and think it may chop after a few similar EC. We use rules while guessing.
On a noz the variance gives us win or loss, we need the variance in every game which not have positive expectation. A zero is able to kill in the longer run, especially on EC play.
The events are not conditional, there is allways the same numbers left. And the fixed odds never cahange.
That is just silly ...
If you have 100 trails with singles and series of two as your selection.
Now for the next 200 trails you say that it can continue to be singles and series of two.
And i agree as nothing is due to happen.
That is pretty beautiful.
Now what i know that you don't know is there will be series of three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine after that.
I know that will come in the future and i don't need a crystal ball to state that.
If you isolate a window of events up towards 3.0 STD then you get a window of vacuum.
You isolate certain events.
So the wheel can produce independent trails for 100, 200, 300 trails or hitting 1.0 or 2.0 or 3.0 or 4.0 or 5.0 or 6.0 STD as the bell curve has no limit, nothing new about that.
But still i know that series of three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine will come after that, that is fact and not gamblers fallacy.
The expectation you can code and simulate over and over again with out proving me wrong.
I alredy have the simulation software’s, so i know what i am talking about.
You can take 16 to 50 trails with 3.0 STD as selection with only singles and series of two present.
Where singles has the value of 1 and series of two the value of 0 and series of three the value of 1.
Then you can see it grow to any value and you only observe and do nothing, because you know larger series will come.
When they do you play.
That is to use tendency towards tiny, small, medium, large waves of larger series.
Lets put it like this.
If i see 16 singles events and two series of two, then i do nothing.
Then it can continue to grow and come singles and series of two and i do nothing.
Why, because i know that soon series of three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine will show.
Then i will play.
So one way i know what will come, that is not woodo.
The black swan among does white swan is how to capture what you know will show in the future.
FTL and DBL is for kids ...
What you do is using guessing, and knowing what it use to be, it is still not sure it will work. We have to sometimes wait a lot of spins to see any change in SD to make it useful.
The black swan is never at the wheel, it is a creation of our mind. All spins in a certain numbers are equally to come, and if we expect something which never happen in time, we bet the wrong, our black swan has not to do with the wheel it is when we expect something much ditterent from what is happen. Which order of numbers is a black swan per se?
Some events are not independent, like the number of unique in a row, the probability for a repeat increase every spin, I saw 21 unique today, and that's a rather rare event at the wheel, not the mind.
No one need to guess as guessing has nothing to do with it.
And it will happen no matter what you say and there is nothing that can prevent it from happen.
So we all know what will happen in the future, if we see a window of 3.0 STD with certain events.
You can code it for a billion times and it will change nothing.
Quote from: Ralph on Jun 08, 04:44 AM 2013
[size=78%]The black swan is never at the wheel, [/size]
Black swan?
Quote from: Turner on Jun 08, 08:10 AM 2013
Black swan?
Black swan is a surprise or rare event Turner.
link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory (link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)
What is the probability of 13 Evens in the row?
Prof Ralph says, 100%
Never heard such mathematics wizard, in my entire life.
Prof Bayes, please enlighten me.
Further to the Black Swan reference. It originally came about by the EXPERTS in England & Europe who for hundreds of years up until 1697 declared that black swans could never exist on the basis that none had ever been seen.. A Dutch explorer mapping part of the West Coast of Australia sailed up a river & 1st sighted black swans. Eventually the experts reluctantly admitted they were wrong.
The City of Perth is now there & the Swan River, with black swans, has kept it's name from over 300 years ago.
The Black Swan financial term stems from the very same viewpoint in that because vast numbers of financial traders have refused to believed that a particular event could occur or repeat but they have. E.G. The well documented 1929 Stock Market crash & more recently the 2008 Lehmann Bros collapse & the Great Financial Crisis, GFC, that continues to unfold now & for years to come.
In roulette, could 40 reds in a row be regarded by many players as a Black Swan event ?
Past spins have influence on future spins and that is end of discussion as I am concerned. They can't predict every next spin, but still through enough short sequences one can profit from that nicely.
I turned 250 units bank into 1700 in two weeks or so, with very low drawdowns on outside EC-s, bets with highest variance of all bets in roulette. And didn't lost single session. All because of asking past spins for prediction. It is far definitely the best betselection I have ever seen and I have seen almost everything I could come accros in this game.
But MM is important also.
Regards
Drazen
Kingsroulette - probability of 13 in a row for 37 pocket wheel is 18/37 to the power of 13 (the square root thingo of 2 is replaced with 13).
The calc is then 18/37 = 0.486486 to power 13 x 100 = 0.0085%. Some other repeats. 1 single spin = 48.65% 2 = 23.67%, 5 = 2.7% 10 = 0.074% 20 = 0.0020%
Each spin probability is reduced by 1/2> = 19/37 = .5135 x 100 = (100 [37 nos.] -51.35% = 48.65%). The actual calc is 18/37 (0.486) x itself, then the result is again x 18/37. You keep going for the number of same spins you want. The power calc thingo just fast tracks the answer
My calculator auto stores to 13 decimal places & has all the bells & whistles. I've just shortened some numbers to demo. the idea.
The chance factor of any result is always constant. In this case we are talking even chances. So on 37 numbers we have 18 chances of winning & 19 chances of losing because of Zero. The calc for losing is 19/37 = 51.35% & winning is 18/37 = 48.65%.
In the 13 in a row wins the chance of any spin losing was also always 51.35% & winning = 48.65%.
So as can be easily seen chance & probability are 2 different animals. Then the X factor of randomness is also in the mix. Randomness by its very nature cannot be calculated because it is a future event, thus impossible to predict. It's this fact alone that enables casinos to reap consistant fat profits from roulette.
As to the 100% view point, it is flawed thinking to equate that % to chance & probability. If we do then we end up with 2 different number amounts for the same item ? Totally illogical & impossible.
The only thing 100% can relate to is in the betting. If 1 equal bet was placed on each of the winning 13 in a row results then the player stopped betting, then it is true to say that the win profit was 100%.
DRAZEN - I assume you are betting live dealer B & M casino ? Every dealers spin is an independent future event. Nobody can predict the future. Past spins are just that = recent history. They can't/don't influence where the white ball drops on the next spin. The variance of the dealer pushing the wheel & spinning the ball sees to that. Add in the diamond hit factor plus ball scatter gives that well known factor RANDOMNESS.
Your bet management uses past results to control your betting decisions. A positive strategy rather than relying on lucky numbers and/or emotion to control your bets.
MM complements controlled betting. What are the table limits for your play? How long & often are your sessions ? Your results so far show positive results.
However luck is also a factor in winning & as you say every spin can't be predicted.
As I've already stated above the chances/odds of winning vs losing on even money bets is 48.65% to 51.35%. The odds/chances are with the casino by 2.7%.
In 2 weeks of play you say you've won every session. Good luck with your play and maybe post your play method & some results when you can ?
Every spin is an independent event and completely unrelated to past spins. Ball or wheel doesn't have eyes or memory or emotions. What you see as a balance or correction is nothing but myth. Every number is equally likely to hit, unless biased, so gradually they all get almost equal in a large sample of data. This is called, "Law of large numbers".
It seems that every member here has his own set of fallacies and misconceptions and they are happy with that too.
Kingsroulette you are very wrong and you are the one who is in fallacy.
The gamblers fallacy is just a consequence of independent trials and says that given 10 reds in a row, the next outcome is just as likely to be red as black.
However, independent trials follow distributions and exhibit regular patterns as defined by the laws of probability, which means to that extent they're not independent. GF is about the next spin, not the next sequence of spins. In fact, probability says that given a strong deviation over a certain sequence, the following sequence is more likely to be closer to the average.
That is my friend called regression toward mean, and that is real phenomenon in randomness.
link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean (link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean)
The 'law of series' says that a double is half as likely as a chop, a run of 3 is half as likely as a double, a run of 4 is half as likely as a run of 3 and so on as you said it too, but there is more to this as those are not only correlations between series. Same way you have runs of 2, 3 etc vs all other series (3,4,5,6 etc) and so on...
All those things must assert themselves for those „laws“ and probabilites to manifest in the longterm expectations and if you say that doesn't have sense as that is „longterm“ which isnt few spins or human length session, I ll say that you are wrong again. IF probabilities don't assert in the short run ( at least to some extent) they can't then in the longterm too. That is logical too if you think about it.
There is also one thing I do incorporate in my play which is diversification. IT also helps to reduce variance and you can read about that on wikipedia too. In other words the trick is not to rely on one single probability and surf on it. No.
This doesnt wins flat bet. But it reduces variance so it is easyer to profit using progressions and sharp MM. That is the point here.
I play only live B&M delaer to answer your question. Outside EC-s only. La Partage rule on the table.
Best
Why do I feel I'm wasting my time giving reasoned answers on here when Kingsroulette fails to respond to my probability answer & Drazen attributes some of my comments to Kingsroulette ? The answers are LAME DUCK at best ?
I'm off to do some baccarat testing.
Quote from: kingsroulette on Jun 08, 11:05 AM 2013
What is the probability of 13 Evens in the row?
Prof Ralph says, 100%
Never heard such mathematics wizard, in my entire life.
Prof Bayes, please enlighten me.
The 13 reds were allready done, that is 100%, if it will happen once again on not yet done spins is something different.
The question was the probability of something allready had happen to happen, which must be 100%, as it can not change!
It must be 100% otherwise one more in a row, which not is yet done will have a different probability than the odds for one spin.
If we have 13 the probability of it will be 14 is 50% on a NOZ, next red is 50% the same.
@ Drazen
You say that you get very low Drawdowns. I know its impossible to give a definite answer to this question but what do those drawdowns look like over say 100 spins? 5 units max... 10? Roughly.
Blood Angel
I was going about 10-15 units in the worst case. But I am ready for much more unpleasnt things. I am prepared for black swans anyhow >:D
Quote from: Ralph on Jun 09, 04:44 AM 2013
If we have 13 the probability of it will be 14 is 50% on a NOZ, next red is 50% the same.
You are saying it wrong and this for the last time I will correct you. I dont intend to pretend smart or saying that I am stats guru, but you have deal of ignorance here my friend.
50% chance is if any spin would be observed or interpreted independantly and only for that next spin and it can be after any point. But if you would like to say probability of 13 in a row it cant 50%.
You said it right how should be calculated earlier on 1 st page and now you say this? It is weird how you are contrasting to yourself..
That is called conditionaly probability and using it isnt any kind of fallacy.
Best
Drazen
Quote from: Blood Angel on Jun 08, 10:01 AM 2013
Black swan is a surprise or rare event Turner.
link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory (link:://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory)
Once in a Preston guild
Once in a blue moon
Rocking horse s*it
Hens teeth
But black swan?...never heard that phrase in my life.
You learn something everyday.
Quote from: Drazen on Jun 09, 05:25 AM 2013
Blood Angel
I was going about 10-15 units in the worst case. But I am ready for much more unpleasnt things. I am prepared for black swans anyhow >:D
Thank you for your straight forward answer. I appreciate it.
Quote from: Drazen on Jun 09, 05:25 AM 2013
Blood Angel
I was going about 10-15 units in the worst case. But I am ready for much more unpleasnt things. I am prepared for black swans anyhow >:D
You are saying it wrong and this for the last time I will correct you. I don't intend to pretend smart or saying that I am stats guru, but you have deal of ignorance here my friend.
50% chance is if any spin would be observed or interpreted independantly and only for that next spin and it can be after any point. But if you would like to say probability of 13 in a row it can't 50%.
You said it right how should be calculated earlier on 1 st page and now you say this? It is weird how you are contrasting to yourself..
That is called conditionaly probability and using it isnt any kind of fallacy.
Best
Drazen
I think here is a missunderstanding, when we not use our native languages. From the start one ask me for the probability of something which had allready happen.
Quote from: kingsroulette on Jun 08, 11:05 PM 2013
What you see as a balance or correction is nothing but myth. Every number is equally likely to hit, unless biased, so gradually they all get almost equal in a large sample of data. This is called, "Law of large numbers".
so balance or correction is nothing but myth. Why are they all get almost equal eventually?... I see a contradiction here
Well probably then. Sorry Ralph, my apologies. it anyhow makes no sense then you say something, then defending opposite lol
But I agree probability for something that just happened could be 100% as it just happened? :)
Drazen
Quote[size=78%]I think here is a missunderstanding, when we not use our native languages. From the start one ask me for the probability of something which had allready happen.[/size]
Really??????? One who asked this question is more intelligent than you if he meant to ask for what has already happened. It is like asking on Sunday as to what is the probability of yesterday being a Saturday.
I can't laugh enough on the wisdom that a few guy possess. I thought probability is all about debating the odds of happening or non happening of any event. Never heard of probability questions like: what is the probability of having 7 days in a week or something like that.
Genius.
Kingsroulette, i want to advice you to limit your genius evaluations to roulette methods only, not to extend them to their author personalities. thanks.
Such evaluations don't help anything except creating mutual conflicts.